نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصادسنجی، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران
2 استاد گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران
3 فارغ‌التحصیل دکتری اقتصاد بین‌الملل، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران
چکیده
بی‌ثباتی مالی باعث عدم اطمینان و عدم شفافیت در بازار و فرآیند تصمیم‌گیری می‌شود که در نهایت منجر به کاهش سرمایه‌گذاری و رشد اقتصادی خواهد شد؛ همچنین شوک‌های اقتصادی تغییراتی در انتظارات سرمایه‌گذاران ایجاد می‌کند. بنابراین، این مطالعه با تحلیل داده‌های فصلی سال 1370:1 تا 1400:4 با استفاده از مدل خودرگرسیون برداری آستانهای (TVAR) به شناسایی تکانههای مالی و نحوه اثرگذاری آنها بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی از قبیل تولید ناخالص داخلی، نسبت بدهی به تولید ناخالص داخلی و بی‌ثباتی مالی پرداخته است. در انتها، یافته‌های اصلی این مطالعه را می‌توان این‌گونه بیان کرد: نخست، سیاستهای مالی (نسبت بدهی به تولید) باعث کاهش تولید ناخالص داخلی می‌شود. دوم، تکانه مثبت وارده از سمت بی‌ثباتی مالی منجر به کاهش تولید ناخالص داخلی و کاهش نسبت بدهی به تولید ناخالص داخلی می‌شود. سوم، نتایج بیان‌کننده این است که در رژیم اول شوک مثبت سیاست مالی (افزایش نسبت بدهی به تولید) موجب افزایش بی‌ثباتی مالی می‌شود اما در رژیم دوم شوک مثبت سیاست مالی، بی‌ثباتی مالی را کاهش می‌دهد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
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