پویایی رابطه شمول مالی و درآمد مالیاتی: تحلیل چندمقیاسی کوانتایل در کوانتایل مبتنی بر موجک

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دکتری رشته اقتصاد، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران

2 دانشجوی دکتری رشته اقتصاد، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران

چکیده
هدف این پژوهش بررسی اثر شمول مالی بر درآمد مالیاتی در ایران طی دوره ۱۴۰۱۱۳۵۹ با بهره‌گیری از روش نوین «کوانتایل در کوانتایل موجک» (WQQR) است؛ رویکردی که امکان تحلیل رابطه میان متغیرها را در سطوح مختلف توزیع و در افق‌های زمانی کوتاه‌مدت، میان‌مدت و بلندمدت فراهم می‌کند. برای این منظور، درآمد مالیاتی به‌عنوان متغیر وابسته و شمول مالی، تورم، بازبودن تجارت، تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه و شهرنشینی به‌عنوان متغیرهای توضیحی در نظر گرفته شده‌اند. آزمون‌های مقدماتی شامل آزمون BDS و نمودارهای Q-Q نشان دادند که سری‌های زمانی دارای رفتار غیرخطی و توزیع‌های نامتقارن‌اند؛ امری که استفاده از روش‌های کوانتایلی موجک را ضروری می‌سازد. یافته‌های تجربی بیانگر آن است که اثر شمول مالی بر درآمد مالیاتی در ایران در افق‌های زمانی مختلف ناهمگن است: در کوتاه‌مدت این اثر محدود و وابسته به سطح شمول مالی است؛ در میان‌مدت، با افزایش دسترسی به خدمات مالی و شفافیت اطلاعاتی، اثر مثبت و قابل‌توجه ظاهر می‌شود؛ و در بلندمدت، شمول مالی به‌صورت پایدار موجب افزایش درآمد مالیاتی می‌گردد. اثر سایر متغیرها نیز رفتاری پویا و وابسته به توزیع نشان می‌دهد: تورم در کوتاه‌مدت اثر منفی دارد اما در افق‌های بالاتر تعدیل می‌شود؛ بازبودن تجارت عمدتاً اثر مثبت دارد؛ رشد اقتصادی در همه افق‌ها تقویت‌کننده درآمد مالیاتی است؛ و شهرنشینی نیز در بلندمدت پایه مالیاتی را گسترش می‌دهد. در مجموع، نتایج مطالعه نشان می‌دهد که توسعه شمول مالی در کنار اصلاحات نهادی و دیجیتالی‌سازی نظام مالیاتی می‌تواند به‌عنوان یکی از ابزارهای کلیدی برای پایدارسازی درآمدهای مالیاتی در ایران مورد توجه سیاست‌گذاران قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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  • تاریخ دریافت 05 دی 1404
  • تاریخ بازنگری 08 تیر 1405
  • تاریخ پذیرش 24 اردیبهشت 1405
  • تاریخ اولین انتشار 24 اردیبهشت 1405