Research Paper
Ali Nassiri Aghdam; Mahtab Moradzadeh
Abstract
Why do countries around the world exhibit such varying performance in tax revenue collection? Among the factors identified in various studies as influencing tax revenues, which ones best explain the differences in tax collection efficiency across countries? To gain a deeper understanding of these factors, ...
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Why do countries around the world exhibit such varying performance in tax revenue collection? Among the factors identified in various studies as influencing tax revenues, which ones best explain the differences in tax collection efficiency across countries? To gain a deeper understanding of these factors, this study employs a multi-level meta-analysis approach. A total of 48 articles, comprising 799 effect sizes, were selected for analysis. The results of the meta-analysis indicate that, after controlling for publication bias and moderator variables, gross domestic product (GDP), international trade, inflation, industrial sector value-added, and tax revenue lag have significant and positive effects on tax revenues. Conversely, agricultural sector value-added and corruption exhibit significant negative effects on tax revenues. Additionally, foreign direct investment (FDI) does not have a significant impact on tax revenues. Moreover, the study shows that the relationship between these variables and tax revenues differs depending on whether tax revenues are measured including or excluding social security contributions. Finally, control variables such as population, corruption, international trade, institutions, GDP, inflation, sample size, model and methodology (including time series, panel data, static and dynamic models, fixed and random effects, generalized method of moments, and other dynamic methods), as well as study periods, also significantly explain the variations observed across.
Research Paper
Mahsa karimi; Hossein Raghfar
Abstract
The issue of underdevelopment in Iran has always been accompanied by a paradoxical phenomenon. On the one hand, there was a general agreement on the necessity of development to achieve social welfare and well-being, and on the other hand, there was no theoretical and political consensus on the path to ...
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The issue of underdevelopment in Iran has always been accompanied by a paradoxical phenomenon. On the one hand, there was a general agreement on the necessity of development to achieve social welfare and well-being, and on the other hand, there was no theoretical and political consensus on the path to its realization. In this article, relying on modern ideas in explaining underdevelopment that consider inequality to be the most important factor in the failure to realize development, the category of power imbalance between the people and the government was considered the most important factor in intensifying inequalities. Based on the institutionalist approach and using the combined theoretical model of North, Fukuyama, and Acemoglu, the role of the balance of power between the superiors and the inferiors in reproducing or containing unjustified inequalities in Iran was examined. The research findings showed that inequality in the distribution of power, wealth, and status was the result of the lack or weakness of a stable balance in the relations between the state and the nation, and the further away from unified governance, the less inequalities were achieved. Finally, the article emphasized that moving beyond the status quo and toward development requires institutional restructuring and the creation of a constrained Leviathan that is simultaneously capable of enforcement, and pursues the rule of law and democratic accountability; something that is only possible through creating a balance between the state and civil society in the form of a strong state, a strong nation.
Research Paper
Nematullah Yaqubi
Abstract
Abstract
Migration constitutes one of the most critical challenges facing the contemporary world, as it gives rise to profound challenges within the social, economic, and even political structures of host regions. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of Afghan migrants on Iran’s ...
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Abstract
Migration constitutes one of the most critical challenges facing the contemporary world, as it gives rise to profound challenges within the social, economic, and even political structures of host regions. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of Afghan migrants on Iran’s regional economic development. The data employed in this research span the period from 2010 to 2024; however, in order to maintain temporal continuity and ensure the consistency of the panel structure, the spatial panel model is estimated based on a continuous ten-year sub-period. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive–analytical in terms of nature and methodology. In the first stage, a composite regional development index was constructed based on twelve economic and social indicators using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). Subsequently, to analyze spatial relationships and to examine both the direct and indirect effects of migration-related variables, the Spatial Durbin Panel Model (SDM) with fixed spatial effects was employed. Model estimation was conducted using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method, enabling the simultaneous measurement of local effects and spatial spillover effects among neighboring provinces. The results indicate that spatial spillovers exert a significant influence on adjacent provinces and that the economic participation rate of Afghan migrants has a positive and statistically significant effect on regional economic development. Furthermore, foreign direct investment demonstrates a positive local effect but a negative spatial effect, reflecting the existence of regional competition among provinces in attracting investment.
Research Paper
Reza Maaboudi; Zeynab Dare Nazari
Abstract
This study aims to investigate the threshold effect of FinTech on the oil rent–growth nexus in Iran. The threshold regression approach and seasonal data for 2013-2022 were used to analyze the relationships among variables. Results indicate that oil rent has a significant and negative impact on ...
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This study aims to investigate the threshold effect of FinTech on the oil rent–growth nexus in Iran. The threshold regression approach and seasonal data for 2013-2022 were used to analyze the relationships among variables. Results indicate that oil rent has a significant and negative impact on economic growth both before and after FinTech reaches its threshold level of 0.146. However, once FinTech surpasses this threshold, the intensity of the resource curse's effect on economic growth diminishes. Additionally, the interaction effect between oil rent and FinTech has a significant and negative effect on economic growth before FinTech reaches the threshold, but after surpassing the threshold, the interaction effect of oil rent and FinTech on economic growth is significant and positive. Inefficient use of oil revenue through increased rent and corruption reduces economic growth. However, the expansion of FinTech, using digital technologies, increases the access of non-oil sector firms and entrepreneurs to financial services, which in turn leads to an increase in employment and a decrease in the pivotal role of oil in the economy. Therefore, fintech development reduces the negative impact of oil rents on economic growth. Accordingly, it is recommended that government, by developing FinTech platforms and blockchain technologies, in addition to further monitoring the allocation of oil revenues to the country's public budget, facilitate access to capital for entrepreneurs and small businesses active in the high technology sector, and reduce negative effects of oil rent on economic growth through optimal resource management and balanced development of various production sectors.
Research Paper
Parsa Riahi Dehkordi; Morteza Ghanbarzadeh Chaleshtori
Abstract
Economics is the science of optimally allocating limited resources in the face of unlimited needs, which requires reliable information for prioritization. In development studies, the role and capacity of regions within the production system are key to achieving balanced growth. This study aimed to rank ...
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Economics is the science of optimally allocating limited resources in the face of unlimited needs, which requires reliable information for prioritization. In development studies, the role and capacity of regions within the production system are key to achieving balanced growth. This study aimed to rank Iranian counties based on their contribution to value added. Using a descriptive-analytical method, the research covered all 457 counties in 2017 and 2020, with no sampling, as data were drawn from census statistics. The VIKOR decision-making method, Shannon entropy for weighting, and each county’s share of value added at constant prices relative to the national level were applied. Data sources included statistical tables of the Statistical Center of Iran and regional and county accounts. Findings showed that Tehran, Rey, and Mashhad counties consistently ranked highest, while Margon, Karkheh, and Angut ranked lowest. At the provincial level, two ranking methods were used. In the direct method, Tehran, Khuzestan, and Bushehr ranked top, with Ilam, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, and North Khorasan at the bottom. In the indirect method, Qom, Tehran, and Bushehr led, while Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, South Khorasan, and Sistan and Baluchestan ranked lowest. The results reveal a concentration of production in specific regions, underscoring the need for regional policies to promote balanced development. These findings can guide policymakers in resource allocation and regional economic planning.
Research Paper
mohaddaseh soleimani; Aliasghar Banouei; Esfandiar Jahangard; teymor mohamadi
Abstract
Innovation and technological changes spans various geographical locations over the time.The inability of Input-Output models in measuring the effects of technology changes, caused by new innovations, is known as a weakness of these models. In this article, we show how this weakness can be addressed by ...
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Innovation and technological changes spans various geographical locations over the time.The inability of Input-Output models in measuring the effects of technology changes, caused by new innovations, is known as a weakness of these models. In this article, we show how this weakness can be addressed by employing the fields of influence method. Technology changes are modeled as changes of one or more elements in the direct coefficients matrix and the impact of such changes in the Leontief matrix is measured. Here is the main question: Does the technology changes only impact a limited sector or the entire economical system? In other words, how would technology changes in one sector impact other sectors of economic system? The main goal in this paper is proposing a method which can measure how different sectors get impacted by changes at different levels such as one element, all elements, one row or one column and then evaluates the importance of different sectors. To this aim, Iran’s Input-Output tables over the period of 1365-1395 with the fixed price of Iran’s statistics center in 1390 is used. The impact of technology changes on each sector is measured using Leontief’s inverse matrix and the column field of influence approach (CFOI) approach. Our findings indicate that over this period of time, technological changes in the industry and then construction sectors have the most influence and the mining sector has the least influence on other sectors of Iran’s economy.
Research Paper
Hossein Esfandiar; teymoor mohammadi
Abstract
Thanks to Blockchain technology the future of banking can take place without intermediaries (especially banks), and in this regard, Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDCs) and stablecoins of BigTechs are mentioned as the main competitors of the new monetary era. Based on this fact and in parallel with ...
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Thanks to Blockchain technology the future of banking can take place without intermediaries (especially banks), and in this regard, Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDCs) and stablecoins of BigTechs are mentioned as the main competitors of the new monetary era. Based on this fact and in parallel with the efforts of most countries on the (theoretical and experimental) investigation of CBDC’s aspects, this article, using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, in the period Q1 1388 to Q4 1400, economic effects of issuance of RamzRial (Iranian CBDC) was modeled and analyzed. In our model, RamzRial is an account-based, widely available to the general public, interest-bearing and cash complementary money, and the results of the implementation of quantitative and price rule policies were examined in the presence of RamzRial. The results of the model based on the data and calibration indicate that the issuance of RamzRial, while diversifying central bank tools, will improve the effectiveness of monetary policies in the event of (supply and demand) external shocks. One of the significant results, especially for the stagflation condition of Iran’s economy, says that through issuing (an appropriate amount of) RamzRial the central bank can implement disinflation programs while reducing its unwanted negative effects on production. Also, in addition to influencing the level of production, consumption, investment and employment, the results of our model prove that with the introduction of the RamzRial in parallel with cash balances, the most important factor affecting the transmission mechanisms is the dynamics of transaction cost deviations.
Research Paper
Reza Taleblou; Parisa Mohajeri; Abbas Shakeri; teymoor mohammadi; zahra zabihi
Abstract
Achieving the correct insight into the structure of connectedness and the spillover of volatilities between different stock exchange industries plays an important role in risk management and forming an optimal stock portfolio. Also, the analysis of inter-sectoral connectedness helps policy makers in ...
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Achieving the correct insight into the structure of connectedness and the spillover of volatilities between different stock exchange industries plays an important role in risk management and forming an optimal stock portfolio. Also, the analysis of inter-sectoral connectedness helps policy makers in designing policies that stimulate economic growth and implementing preventive measures to curb the propagation of systemic risk. In this regard, this article tries to use the data of 3370 trading days during the period of 1388/07/01 to 1402/06/31, encompassing 20 stock market industries (which constitute more than 80% of the Iranian stock market) and applying the connectedness approach based on the vector autoregression model with time-varying parameters (TVP-VAR), to estimate the systemic risk and volatility connectedness of the stock market network. In addition, we implement the minimum connectedness approach in the optimal stock portfolio and compared its performance with two other conventional approaches. The findings reveal that, first; the systemic risk in Iranian stock market is significant and has reached unprecedented figures of 80% in the last three years. Second, the four major export industries (petrochemicals, metals, mining and refining) experience the strongest pairwise connectedness, and among them, base metals appear as one of the most important transmitters of volatilities to the entire stock network. Thirdly, the stock portfolio based on the minimum connectedness method, compared to the minimum variance and minimum correlation methods, shows a better performance based on the criteria of cumulative return and hedge ratio efficiency.
Research Paper
Mohammad Feghhi Kashani; Teymor Mohammadi; zahra Aghighi
Abstract
One of the key challenges in empirical studies relates to the identification of the dynamics of bubbles that periodically run up and collapse. This study is an attempt in this field, which initially examines some limitations of one of the relatively new methods in the economic literature as to the identification ...
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One of the key challenges in empirical studies relates to the identification of the dynamics of bubbles that periodically run up and collapse. This study is an attempt in this field, which initially examines some limitations of one of the relatively new methods in the economic literature as to the identification of rational bubbles in the Tehran Stock Exchange for the period of 2009-2020. Then, by assuming the Markov switching regime approach in this area, we have extended the conventional method by taking into account the dynamic interaction of asset prices in the market with the latent factor in the process of bubbles expansion and collapse. It is shown how this framework, while improving the efficiency of detecting financial bubbles through mitigating the specification error of dynamic models compared to existing alternative methods, is capable of incorporating the feature of traders' interactions in the market with no specific assumptions on how they interact, especially with regard to the coordination of their expectations and pursuant trading behavior. The findings resulting from this method indicate the existence of a bubble in asset prices only for the period 2018-2020, as opposed to the use of the conventional method, which implies either no bubble or the existence of two bubbly periods 2012-2014 and 2018-2020. in the Tehran Stock Exchange.
Research Paper
Shima Namazi Zavareh; Farshad Momeni; Ali Asghar Salem
Abstract
In order to face the challenge of youth poverty, the main focus should be on facilitating the access of the NEET population to quality education and decent job opportunities. Considering that this group of people is a potential threat to the country's achievement of one of the most important goals of ...
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In order to face the challenge of youth poverty, the main focus should be on facilitating the access of the NEET population to quality education and decent job opportunities. Considering that this group of people is a potential threat to the country's achievement of one of the most important goals of sustainable development, i.e. ending poverty through decent work and economic growth, and they turn the young population into a challenge and not an opportunity in the economy, Examining the impact they have on poverty and the impact they receive from poverty is very important. In this regard, the aim of this article is to investigate the simultaneous relationship between household poverty and population phenomenon in the urban and rural society of Iran in 1401. For this purpose, using the detailed data of urban and rural households' expenditure and income plan, the poverty line was first calculated based on the multidimensional poverty approach and poor households were identified. Then, the households that have demographic phenomena were also identified. The results of the estimation of the research model using the two-stage least squares method (2SLS) showed that in urban areas, population phenomenon and poverty both have a positive and significant effect on each other. Unlike in urban areas, the results of the estimation of the research model in rural areas indicated that the population phenomenon does not have a significant effect on household poverty, but on the other hand, household poverty has a positive and significant effect on it.
Research Paper
Shima Namazi Zavareh; Farshad Momeni; Ali Asghar Salem
Abstract
A major reason for pushing people towards informal jobs is the motivation of necessity. In fact, informal employment is a kind of survival strategy for those who have no other way to earn money and support themselves and their families except by working in these types of low-paid jobs. At the level of ...
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A major reason for pushing people towards informal jobs is the motivation of necessity. In fact, informal employment is a kind of survival strategy for those who have no other way to earn money and support themselves and their families except by working in these types of low-paid jobs. At the level of development, the continuation of this trend affects the economic competitiveness and the quality of life of the citizens, and the foundation of national production and technological and innovative production faces serious limitations. the purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of household poverty along with other socio-economic factors on informal employment in urban areas of Iran in 2019. For this purpose, by using the detailed data of the expenditure and income plan of urban households, first, the poverty line was calculated based on the absolute poverty approach for urban areas and poor households were identified. Then according to the index presented in this research, the type of employment of households was determined in terms of formal and informal. The results of estimating the research model using the two-stage Heckman Probit method indicate that household poverty leads to a significant increase in informal employment, so that with an increase in poverty, the probability of being informally employed increases by 0.57. The strategic message of this study is that the problem of poverty and informal employment in Iran can be overcome only by upgrading the technological production base and creating value-creating capabilities based on increasing productivity.
Research Paper
zahra bigdeli shamloo; Abbas Shakeri; Teymur Mohamadi; Syrous Omidvar
Abstract
The main purpose of this study is to analyze the nature of the money creation process by examining the approaches related to this process in Iran. The two main views regarding the money creation process are the endogenous and exogenous money approaches. The endogeneity of money means that the money supply ...
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The main purpose of this study is to analyze the nature of the money creation process by examining the approaches related to this process in Iran. The two main views regarding the money creation process are the endogenous and exogenous money approaches. The endogeneity of money means that the money supply is directly influenced by the economic activities and conditions in the economy, and it is not determined by central bank exclusively. The endogeneity of money can also be a very important factor in the efficiency and effectiveness of monetary policies on macroeconomic indicators. Therefore, in order to test the endogeneity based on post-Keynesian approaches, the two-stage method of the state-space approach was applied to determine a time-variable model of money supply using the annual data from 1357 to 1400 in Iran. The results indicate: firstly, money is endogenous. Secondly,the effect of explanatory variables on it is not constant over time, and therefore, it is necessary to change monetary policies from targeting on money aggregates according to the conditions of endogenous money.
Research Paper
Ahmadreza Ahmadi; Ghahreman Abdoli; Fatemeh Azhari
Abstract
The present study examines the impact of globalization on Iran’s underground economy over the period 1979–2020. In this regard, the size of the underground economy was estimated using the MIMIC method. Subsequently, the effects of the three main dimensions of globalization—economic, ...
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The present study examines the impact of globalization on Iran’s underground economy over the period 1979–2020. In this regard, the size of the underground economy was estimated using the MIMIC method. Subsequently, the effects of the three main dimensions of globalization—economic, social, and political—as well as the dual components of each dimension (de facto and de jure), were analyzed using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. The findings from the long-run estimations indicate that the economic and social dimensions of globalization have a negative effect on the underground economy, whereas the political dimension exerts a positive effect. Further analysis of the components of each globalization dimension reveals that both the de facto and de jure components of social globalization negatively influence the underground economy. Although the de jure component of economic globalization also has a negative impact, its de facto component does not have a significant effect. Regarding the political dimension, de facto component has a significant positive effect on the underground economy, while the de jure component does not show a meaningful impact. Additionally, the results demonstrate that, in all four estimated models, unemployment has a positive effect and financial deepening has a negative effect on the underground economy. These findings offer useful guidance for policymakers aiming to reduce the size of the underground economy and enhance economic transparency in the country.
Research Paper
ali nikoonesbati; abbas assari; farshad Momeni; Lotfali Agheli
Abstract
The challenges of policy making in the current evolving world have caused the idea of presenting hybrid models to analyze the causes of policy success and failure should be considered in recent years. Studies show that institutional and behavioral approaches face challenges in adequately explaining policy ...
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The challenges of policy making in the current evolving world have caused the idea of presenting hybrid models to analyze the causes of policy success and failure should be considered in recent years. Studies show that institutional and behavioral approaches face challenges in adequately explaining policy failure. The institutional approach does not provide an adequate explanation for policy mistakes in a democratic structure, and the behavioral approach cannot adequately explain the lack of policy reform despite nudges. o overcome these challenges, a new model for explaining policymaking has been proposed, relying on two institutional-behavioral approaches, which emphasizes the importance of institutions, heuristics, and the institutional structure in the success or failure of policymaking.Using the comparative analysis method, indicators and policies in Iran in the housing and health sectors were examined., the share of housing and health costs in total urban household expenses in Iran is almost twice the global average, which means a failure of policymaking. The reason for this failure is, on the one hand, the gap between the country's institutional structure and the democratic system, which has a negative impact on the quality of policymaking. In addition, cognitive bias can be seen due availability heuristics in both housing and treatment sectors. In fact, the policy maker simply assumes that he can improve the conditions by using resources and increasing supply. Also, the policymaker neglects the effective laws and rules (institutions) in each sector, which is also very effective in the failure of policies
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