Document Type : Research Paper
Author
esfahan-iran
Abstract
Abstract
Migration constitutes one of the most critical challenges facing the contemporary world, as it gives rise to profound challenges within the social, economic, and even political structures of host regions. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of Afghan migrants on Iran’s regional economic development. The data employed in this research span the period from 2010 to 2024; however, in order to maintain temporal continuity and ensure the consistency of the panel structure, the spatial panel model is estimated based on a continuous ten-year sub-period. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive–analytical in terms of nature and methodology. In the first stage, a composite regional development index was constructed based on twelve economic and social indicators using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). Subsequently, to analyze spatial relationships and to examine both the direct and indirect effects of migration-related variables, the Spatial Durbin Panel Model (SDM) with fixed spatial effects was employed. Model estimation was conducted using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method, enabling the simultaneous measurement of local effects and spatial spillover effects among neighboring provinces. The results indicate that spatial spillovers exert a significant influence on adjacent provinces and that the economic participation rate of Afghan migrants has a positive and statistically significant effect on regional economic development. Furthermore, foreign direct investment demonstrates a positive local effect but a negative spatial effect, reflecting the existence of regional competition among provinces in attracting investment.
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