Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

• Mohammad Feghhi Kashani ¹
• Teymor Mohammadi ²
• zahra Aghighi ³

¹ Department of Business Economics , Faculty of Economics , Allameh Tabatabai University

² Department of Theoretical Economics,Faculty of Economics , Allameh Tabatabai University

³ ندارم

Abstract

One of the key challenges in empirical studies relates to the identification of the dynamics of bubbles that periodically run up and collapse. This study is an attempt in this field, which initially examines some limitations of one of the relatively new methods in the economic literature as to the identification of rational bubbles in the Tehran Stock Exchange for the period of 2009-2020. Then, by assuming the Markov switching regime approach in this area, we have extended the conventional method by taking into account the dynamic interaction of asset prices in the market with the latent factor in the process of bubbles expansion and collapse. It is shown how this framework, while improving the efficiency of detecting financial bubbles through mitigating the specification error of dynamic models compared to existing alternative methods, is capable of incorporating the feature of traders' interactions in the market with no specific assumptions on how they interact, especially with regard to the coordination of their expectations and pursuant trading behavior. The findings resulting from this method indicate the existence of a bubble in asset prices only for the period 2018-2020, as opposed to the use of the conventional method, which implies either no bubble or the existence of two bubbly periods 2012-2014 and 2018-2020. in the Tehran Stock Exchange.

Keywords

• Markov Switching Model
• Rational Bubbles
• Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller Method
• Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller Method
• Latent Factor

Main Subjects

• Econometrics