Saeed Isa Zadeh; Akbar Ahmadzadeh
Volume 13, Issue 40 , October 2009, Pages 1-28
Abstract
The neo-classical growth models explain the difference between economic growth of economies as a result of difference in economic factors such as capital (in the form of fiscal and human) and factor productivity، but according to new institutional economist those differences in fact originate from institutional ...
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The neo-classical growth models explain the difference between economic growth of economies as a result of difference in economic factors such as capital (in the form of fiscal and human) and factor productivity، but according to new institutional economist those differences in fact originate from institutional qualities and structures in different countries. In this regard، the main reason of having low level of per capita income in less developed countries is the lack of good quality institutions for economic activities and capital accumulation.Researches show the positive impacts of institutions on economic growth in different economies. In this study، we investigate evaluate the effects of institutional qualities and other economic factors on economic growth in 50 countries for the period of 1996 - to 2005. Institutional quality is formed by combination of six basic indices as followes: voice and accountibility، political stability، control of corruption، rule of law، regulatory of quality، and government effectiveness. The results show athe direct relationship between economic growth and institutional qualities.
Saeed Rasekhy; Amir Khanalipour
Volume 13, Issue 40 , October 2009, Pages 29-57
Abstract
Stock markets are strong means of attracting savings and directing them to investors، but their rate of returns are subject to fluctuations much higher than other economic variables. This paper is to examine of the volatility in the Tehran stock marketusing the conditional heteroscedasticity technique ...
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Stock markets are strong means of attracting savings and directing them to investors، but their rate of returns are subject to fluctuations much higher than other economic variables. This paper is to examine of the volatility in the Tehran stock marketusing the conditional heteroscedasticity technique for the period 1370:0-1386:06. Based on the results obtained، (1) distribution of the return has positive skewness indicating that market players consider occurrence of negative returns more likely. (2) Return series is not normaly distributed and has more height than normal curve. (3) Calendar has no significant effect on return with the exception of second، fifth and ninth months of the year. (4) Weak Information efficiency is rejected. Thus، not all market factors transact professionally and، the information and the news affect stock price with a time delay. (5) Inflation has positive effect on returns fluctuations، but is not significant . (6) Exchange rate (Rials/$) has positive and significant but samll effect on return fluctuations. The small effect is probably due to the fact that there is only a little share of Dollar in shareholders portfolio. Finally، (7) Assumption of normal distribution for residuals is not suitable. In contrast، t and general error distributions if surplus kurtosis is considered are proper assumptionsGovernments can play have an important role in affecting the demand for planning and preparing the food these security through their protection policies such as providing subsidies. subsidizing the main or basic categories of food in the same time subsidies will increase the government expenditure،therefore، it is necessary to set goals carefully. However، as subsidies will increase government expenditure and will cost the economy، they should be targeted to people who need them the most. In this article، we estimate the demand for main or basic foods، (i.e.bread، meat، milk، oil and sugar) have been estimated by using AIDS Model and taking into account household budget survey data in urban areas and consumer price index through two stage model and cointegration for the periodyears 1363-1384. At every stage، estimation was done for both the short-run and the long-run and the homogenous constraint and symmetric have been examined by Wald test. As an instrument of analysis، We obtain price elasticity، income elasticity and cross price elasticity of demand have been calculated forin the short-run and the long-run. The results show that reducing subsidies on these goods would put a pressure on consumer expenditure through the rise in the prices. However، changes in the structurel of subsidies with a gradual reduction in the amount of subsidies for bread، oil and sugar and directing them payment toward meat and milk within a structured goal is recommended.will be more beneficial.
Karim Azarbaijani; Seyed Komail Tayebi; Nafiseh Honari
Volume 13, Issue 40 , October 2009, Pages 59-75
Abstract
The relationship between international trade and emigration is being concerned in most developing countries with their relevant migration and trade policies. Such policies should rely on logical resolutions in order to reduce unemployment pressure on the labor market. Hence، this study examines the ...
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The relationship between international trade and emigration is being concerned in most developing countries with their relevant migration and trade policies. Such policies should rely on logical resolutions in order to reduce unemployment pressure on the labor market. Hence، this study examines the relationship between Iran’s trade volume and labor force emigration to the five major members of the OECD (the US، Canada، the UK، the Netherlands and Sweden) over the period 1992-2004 (1371-1383).Following Mitchell and Pain (2003) and Mayda (2005)، a specified gravity model is estimated by panel data to show the impacts of determinants on the Iran’s emigration. The empirical results obtained indicate that there is a significant and complementary relationship between trade volume and the labor force emigration to the selected countries of OECD in Iran. Additionally، the results show that convergence in the labor force productivity، as a gap between the number of skilled labors falls in Iran and the OECD members، can lead to a decrease in emigration from Iran to abroad.
Mansoureh Aghighi; Ali Mohammad Kimiagari
Volume 13, Issue 40 , October 2009, Pages 77-99
Abstract
Since the Third Economic-Social-Cultural Development Plan and & specially in Forth Plan، the government has noticed the importance and crucial role of TFP(Total Factor Productivity) growth in enhancing GDP(Gross Domestic Product) and therefor، has been economical situation of country & has ...
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Since the Third Economic-Social-Cultural Development Plan and & specially in Forth Plan، the government has noticed the importance and crucial role of TFP(Total Factor Productivity) growth in enhancing GDP(Gross Domestic Product) and therefor، has been economical situation of country & has begun trying to increase TFP of country by improving the Partial Performance Indices(PPI).Therefore the necessity of relating the computed TFP to the PPIs in companies –which without that، computing TFP alone would not be useful & applicable enough- is clear. None of the Ministries and governmental companies of Iran were successful to study this relation، so Tthis article studies & investigates the effects of PPI on TFP this subject in NIOOC، which is that is one of the main producing oil & gas sub-companies of NIOC (National Iranian Oil Company)، as a case study with respect to Labor and Capital PPIs infor the period of 1997 -to 2006. ، based on econometrics & stasistical models We use the . Research will be done using Solow mMethod with Cobb-Douglas production fFunction as well as ; & in addition to main method، also the Kendrick method. method will be used، so that results can be comparable. It can be seen that both methods nearly represent the same results. The results of this project show that in NIOOC the most effective studied Partial Performance Indexes on TFP in NIOOC is “the proportion of operating & managerial staff” that represents the high importance of structuring & suitable organizational chart. Other indices which were effective on TFP of NIOOC were experience and expertise، the number of technologies used in production of oil، & finally the degree of using educated staff respectively.
Aliakbar Arabmazar; Ali Askar Qasemi Rad
Volume 13, Issue 40 , October 2009, Pages 101-123
Abstract
In this paper، the effects of bank facilities and the real rate of foreign exchange on the agricultural products exports haves been investigated modeled and studied via a macro dynamic model. Time span of this study is 1358_1385 (1979_2006). The results of this study show that، due to the first shock ...
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In this paper، the effects of bank facilities and the real rate of foreign exchange on the agricultural products exports haves been investigated modeled and studied via a macro dynamic model. Time span of this study is 1358_1385 (1979_2006). The results of this study show that، due to the first shock of increasing real rate of foreign exchange، exports of agricultural products increases but the percentage of this increase is in a relatively smalsmall amountl، and it decreases through time. as time passes it shows that exports of agricultural products doesn't increase but decreases. It means that the effect of the shock in the long run is negative.Examining the effect of increasing bank facilities onto the export of agricultural products shows that the influence of the first shock in the beginning years is almost zero but in the last years of the time span becomes positive. This examination also shows that increasing the bank facilities causes higher rate of increase in the export of agricultural products. In fact، T the credit policy in agricultural sector is a midterm or long term policy، so the effect may not be clear in the first years of the policy implementation but as time passes it becomes noticeable. Finally combining merging these two policies shows that the effect of simultaneous implementation of two policieshas a positive effect on the export of agricultural products is positive.
Davood Behboodi; Hossien Asgharpour; Siab Mamipour
Volume 13, Issue 40 , October 2009, Pages 125-147
Abstract
Growth literatures indicates that human capital، education and technologicaly progress are effective factors on economic growth. Empirical studies present that natural resource abundance have an important role on economic growth in natural-resource-rich countries. This studyessaystudy essay investigates ...
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Growth literatures indicates that human capital، education and technologicaly progress are effective factors on economic growth. Empirical studies present that natural resource abundance have an important role on economic growth in natural-resource-rich countries. This studyessaystudy essay investigates the relationship between natural resource abundance، human capital and economic growth in two cases of petroleum exporters' countries: A) Major petroleum exporters B) Other petroleum exporters. We use a panel data for The model of this paper is tested by panel data for the period 1970-2004. The results output of models indicate that physical investment and openness have positive impact on economic growth، and resource abundant and government expenditure ae inversely related with economic growth.، but hHuman capital hasve a different impact inin the two cases sample of paper; so that human capital have It has a negative impact on economic growth in the first case (A)، but while it has a positive impact on economic growth in the second case (B). So، We can conclude that human capital can be main factor to explain slow growth in resource-rich countries. Abundant of natural resource in this countries and bad usage of natural resource can be cause of negative relationship between human capital and economic growth. In other hands، Ccountries that are rich in mineral and oil resources neglect the developing of their human resources by devoting inadequate attention and expenditure to education. So these countries have lower growth rate with respect to others.
Reza Tehrani; Mohammad Reza Pourebrahimi
Volume 13, Issue 40 , October 2009, Pages 149-170
Abstract
The present research, analyzses the forecasting performance of a variety of conditional and non-conditional models of TEDPIX volatility at the daily frequencies under three performance criteria: namely Tthe root mean square error (RMSE), the mean absolute error (MAE) and the Theil index. ...
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The present research, analyzses the forecasting performance of a variety of conditional and non-conditional models of TEDPIX volatility at the daily frequencies under three performance criteria: namely Tthe root mean square error (RMSE), the mean absolute error (MAE) and the Theil index. Under RMSE and Theil criteria, results show MA250, exponential smoothing, and CGARCH models haved better performance among between non conditional and conditional models respectively. Comparing forecasting performance of conditional and non conditional models shows that MA250 and ES models had better performance relative to conditional models. Other results of the study also reveal that according to conditional volatility models (except PARCH) there is a significant relationship between behavior of volatility and the targeted volatility range This result cannot be approved by ARMA. change of the price control whereas ARMA model rejects it. Furthermore, change of the time period of return measurement (daily and monthly) affects behavior of volatilitvolatility varies in different return.
