Nasser Khiabani
Abstract
This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model (DGEMI) for evaluating energy policies in Iran’s economy. DGEMI provides a detailed multisector framework for analyzing economic transition, removal of energy subsidy, and technological change policies. The results show that eliminating ...
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This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model (DGEMI) for evaluating energy policies in Iran’s economy. DGEMI provides a detailed multisector framework for analyzing economic transition, removal of energy subsidy, and technological change policies. The results show that eliminating energy subsidies (once- for -all or gradually) in the absence of technological progress is in itself insufficient to stimulate the investment and economic growth. Although the energy intensity along with this policy declines over time, its decline can not be attributed to the energy efficiency, since the economy falls into the lower level of new steady state after removing the energy subsidies. On the other hand, the combination of eliminating energy subsidies and technological progress policies provide a strong growth stimulus accompanied by a pronounced increase in productive efficiency and a decline in intensive energy.
Soheila Parvin; Maryam Mastali Parsa
Abstract
Cutting public subsidies like fuel subsidy or changing in payment method will have different impacts on each social group. Subsidy targeting is able to decrease consequences of this policy. Now, in a possible situation to classify the households according to their socio-specific characteristics like ...
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Cutting public subsidies like fuel subsidy or changing in payment method will have different impacts on each social group. Subsidy targeting is able to decrease consequences of this policy. Now, in a possible situation to classify the households according to their socio-specific characteristics like gender and head and identify the poverty groups, the government can provide subsidy for that specific group. Statistics show that female-headed households, due to the limitations and barriers to the labor market suffer from various aspects of poverty. Our main purpose in this article is, first of all, to classify the household groups into male and female heads within the social accounting matrices for the year 2009 and 2011. The results show that the average cost of living index of households decreases from 0.055 in 2009 to 0.048 in 2011. This means that by reducing the subsidy by one unit, households in 2011 compared to 2009 should pay 0.007 less for the same consumption basket. Also, the average of female-headed household cost of living index decreases from 0.070 in 2009 to 0.046 in 2011. More decrease of the mentioned index indicates more poverty for this group.
Esfandiyar Jahangard
Abstract
The Iranian economy suffers from low economic growth despite having access to enormous reserves of natural resources. The role of investment rate as the driving force of economic growth has been the focus of much debate among macroeconomists. This raises an important question: Why does growth in Iran ...
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The Iranian economy suffers from low economic growth despite having access to enormous reserves of natural resources. The role of investment rate as the driving force of economic growth has been the focus of much debate among macroeconomists. This raises an important question: Why does growth in Iran remain low despite of high investment? One way to answer this question is to look at the relationship between economic structures and performances. Contributing to the literature in the field, we incorporate intermediate goods in our calculation of inter sectoral resource allocation for the purposes of production analysis over the period of 1973-2011. Five national input-output tables for the years of 1973, 1986, 1991, 2001 and 2011 consisting of 19 sectors in current prices have been used in this study. The results showed that the average production multiplier is 1.8. The overall findings revealed that the structural transformation has shifted from agriculture to some industries and service sectors which differs from the experiences of developing and developed countries.
Esmaiel Abounoori; Azizallh Farhadi
Abstract
Input-Output Table (IOT) analysis is important especially concerning trade, environments, productivity for planning and policy making. Quality of the analyses depends on the estimation of Symmetric Input-Output Tables (SIOT) and also the use of the types of technology assumption (Product Technology versus ...
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Input-Output Table (IOT) analysis is important especially concerning trade, environments, productivity for planning and policy making. Quality of the analyses depends on the estimation of Symmetric Input-Output Tables (SIOT) and also the use of the types of technology assumption (Product Technology versus Activity Technology). The choice of the type of technology concerning SIOT estimation has been left to the member countries by the UN Manual. Choosing technology assumption in Iran has been based on expert judgments, institutional data requirement and avoiding negative elements. The question which arises here is that, would it be possible to choose the appropriate type of technology for estimation of SIOT in Iran? The main aim of this paper is to suggest an econometric test of hypothesis method concerning the choosing of technology type. For this reason, we suggest a Fisher type (F) test in which the Product Technology or the Activity technology will be chosen. If the Product Technology is dominant, the SIOT will be estimated based on the Product Technology. Otherwise, the Activity Technology may be applied. The results of the tests concerning 2011 SIOT have shown that Product Technology Hypotheses is more appropriate for some sectors, whereas Activity Technology Hypotheses for other sectors are not valid.
Zahra Mosayyebi; Nooraddin Sharify
Abstract
Developing countries are faced with the scarcity of resources such as labor force, investment, energy, water, etc. Such scarcities have forced these countries into adopting the unbalanced growth theory and prioritizing their resources in the manufacturing sectors. In this study, the importance of the ...
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Developing countries are faced with the scarcity of resources such as labor force, investment, energy, water, etc. Such scarcities have forced these countries into adopting the unbalanced growth theory and prioritizing their resources in the manufacturing sectors. In this study, the importance of the banking sector in Iranian economy, as well as its effects on other economic sectors are taken into account. Total forward Linkages (Net and Gross) are used in order to specify the influence of the banking sector on other sectors, and also to compare it with them. The stimulation of the development of banking sector activities on the various economic sectors is also specified through total backward linkages (Net and Gross). The statistical data of this study have been provided from the input-output table (2012); the latest official updated input-output table of Iran, released by Iran’s Parliament Research Center. The position of this sector, both in terms of stimulatibility and stimulation in the manufacturing sectors, is lower than that of other sectors. The partial forward linkage index of the banking sector shows that 67.93% of the banking services are used as intermediate goods in the economy. Thus, the banking sector is the one which that is mostly at the service of the production sectors, and in this regard, it is ranked first among all service sectors. The chemical production, building and banking sectors respectively obtain the most benefits from banking services. The chemical production sector, the banking sector and the water, electricity and the natural gas distribution sectors, respectively, are the largest suppliers of the banking sector’s needs.
Narges Sadeghi; Seyed Hadi Mousavi Nik
Abstract
In 2015 "Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade" and the "Management and Planning Organization" tried to identify the key sectors of the Iranian economy on the verge of the Sixth Five Year "Development Plan". The first report entitled "industrial development strategy" uses general criteria such as the ...
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In 2015 "Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade" and the "Management and Planning Organization" tried to identify the key sectors of the Iranian economy on the verge of the Sixth Five Year "Development Plan". The first report entitled "industrial development strategy" uses general criteria such as the share of value added, employment, exports and comparative advantage and the second one namely "key sectors prioritization of the Iranian economy" identifies key sectors on the basis of traditional methods in Input Output analysis. The findings of both institutions suggest the development of heavy industries. In order to assess these findings, traditional, eigenvector and hypothetical extraction methods have been used to answer three following questions: First, which of these methods give a more realistic picture of Iran’s economy and what are the key sectors? Second, to what extent the results of the three methods proposed, are in line with the proposed recommendations of the two institutions? And the third, will there be any differs of the results obtained from the three methods with the new sectoral classifications? The findings of this paper reveal that: First, of all the results of the hypothetical extraction method are more realistic due to considering the intermediate transactions, and the size of the sectoral final demand and value added, reveal that the number of industrial sectors are reduced and service sectors especially distributional ones are identified as key sectors. Second, unlike the other two methods, the results of the hypothetical extraction show a different picture: The shares of industry sectors are reduced and agriculture and service sectors appear as key sector. Third, classifying key sectors according to level of technology shows "Chemicals excluding pharmaceuticals" and "Pharmaceuticals" is common in the three methods whereas there is a considerable difference in Medium-low-technology and Low-technology industries.
