Zahra Dehghan Shabani; Ebrahim Hadian; Faezeh Nasirzadeh
Abstract
Economic theory has emphasized the important role of human capital on national and regional economic growth. The present study aimed to analyze the effect of the composition of human capital on economic growth in Iranian provinces. We estimated a Spatial Dynamic Panel Data model by using Generalized ...
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Economic theory has emphasized the important role of human capital on national and regional economic growth. The present study aimed to analyze the effect of the composition of human capital on economic growth in Iranian provinces. We estimated a Spatial Dynamic Panel Data model by using Generalized Method of Moments technique for 28 Iranian provinces over the period 2001-2011.
The results indicated that tertiary and primary and secondary education had positive and significant effects on economic growth. Also, the human capital structure had an inverse-U-shape effect on economic growth. In other words, growth is increasing in the human capital structure at low levels of the human capital structure, but the relation turns negative once the human capital structure exceeds a critical value.
Teimour Mohammadi; Mohammad Hossein Pourkazemi; Abbass Shakeri; Ali Safdari; Behnam Aminrostamkolaee
Abstract
The present paper provides option pricing by using Merton-Black-Scholes approach in order to calculate the market value of banks’ assets, assets volatility, and distance to default for a selected sample of Iranian private banks in the period of 2010-1013. Therefore, the approach is able to solve ...
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The present paper provides option pricing by using Merton-Black-Scholes approach in order to calculate the market value of banks’ assets, assets volatility, and distance to default for a selected sample of Iranian private banks in the period of 2010-1013. Therefore, the approach is able to solve some problems of banks valuation. At first for the period of 4 years, market value of assets, assets volatility and the distance to default were calculated and compared. Then, weighted average of market value, volatility, and Z-score for the banks in the period were also computed and compared. The results showed that Mellat bank had the highest, and Sina bank had the lowest value during the period. The results of assets risk and distance to default (Z score) have been different for each year. Also, weighted average of market value and assets risk (volatility) of these banks showed a rising trend during these 4 years. Considering the increased average capital adequacy ratio during these 4 years for 8 banks, the average Z (distance to default) has been decreased. This means that during the period of 4 years, by increasing the rate of capital adequacy, banks have been closer to default. Probably, the negative effects of economic and non-economic factors exceed positive impact of capital adequacy rate.
Saeed Rasekhi; Seyed Peyman Asadi; Zahra Sheidaei
Abstract
The conventional literature suggests a positive relationship between the expected return and the conditional volatility, but according to the empirical evidence there is not a specific and constant relationship between them. In this regard, the study investigates the role of significant characteristics ...
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The conventional literature suggests a positive relationship between the expected return and the conditional volatility, but according to the empirical evidence there is not a specific and constant relationship between them. In this regard, the study investigates the role of significant characteristics of financial asset prices including time-varying conditional volatility and jump in the relationship between risk and return in Tehran stock market. For this purpose the ARJI-GARCH model which includes both features is applied and the results are compared with two more simple models i.e. GARCH-M and GARCH-JUMP. The former consists of the conditional variance and the latter has both features but with the constant probability of the jump. The empirical findings using daily data from September 9th 1997 to March 15th 2015 imply that the jump component has a significant impact, and the risk of Iran’s stock returns includes both smoothly changing variance and jump events. Therefore, the traditional GARCH-M model cannot explain correctly the relationship between risk and return in Iran’s stock market. Also, the analysis of the time-varying risk premium shows that in the short-run only the risk arising from jump is significant.
Farzad Eskandari
Abstract
In this study, based on Bayesian Generalized Linear Models, correlation between the parameters of two Poisson distributions was computed. Due to lack of the closed form for posterior distribution, hierarchical Bayesian statistics using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to calculate the correlation of ...
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In this study, based on Bayesian Generalized Linear Models, correlation between the parameters of two Poisson distributions was computed. Due to lack of the closed form for posterior distribution, hierarchical Bayesian statistics using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to calculate the correlation of two Poisson distributions is presented. In this regard, the highest posterior density for coefficient of variation in the model are calculated. Using Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) has been shown that a Poisson-lognormal model can assess the correlation between the parameters better than the Poisson-gamma model. Finally, the proposed method is used to simulated data of BANK TEJARAT .
Behrooz Keshtegar; Zeinab Sarani
Abstract
In this paper, a nonparametric logit modelling was introduced to estimate the probability of participation of Iranian female labour using household income-expended in 2008. The logistic function for women’s participation was regressed based on the maximum likelihood estimator that the geographical ...
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In this paper, a nonparametric logit modelling was introduced to estimate the probability of participation of Iranian female labour using household income-expended in 2008. The logistic function for women’s participation was regressed based on the maximum likelihood estimator that the geographical location (urban/rural), husband’s income, education, female age, non-labour income, number of children above and under six years were implemented for input variables. The accuracies of the logit models based on the parametric and nonparametric modeling approaches were evaluated using White statistic, confidence index, and root mean square error. Finally, the marginal effects of input variables on women’s probability of participation were estimated based the results of calibrated unknown coefficients of parametric and nonparametric models. The results demonstrated that nonparametric logit model is more accurate than parametric logit model. Education and number of child under six years have effective positive and negative effects compared to another input variables, respectively.
Niloufar Sadat Hosseinioun; Mehdi Behname; Taghi Ebrahimi Salari
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to study volatility spillovers among stock, gold and exchange rate markets. A “VAR–MGARCH” model was applied for Iranian financial markets for the period of March 21, 2011 to September 22, 2014. The data used are daily price of Bahar Azadi Coin, Tehran price ...
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The aim of this paper is to study volatility spillovers among stock, gold and exchange rate markets. A “VAR–MGARCH” model was applied for Iranian financial markets for the period of March 21, 2011 to September 22, 2014. The data used are daily price of Bahar Azadi Coin, Tehran price stock index and nominal exchange rate (Dollar in terms of Rials).The results indicate that there are bidirectional shock transitions between gold and exchange markets and between gold and stock markets and there is a unidirectional shock transition from stock market to exchange market. Also, the results show that there are bidirectional volatility transitions between exchange and gold markets and gold and stock markets.
Ahmad Mohammadi
Abstract
This paper aims to evaluate the reaction of petrochemical and petroleum products markets (traded on the Iran Mercantile Exchange) to the removal of price ceilings imposed on it. After the implementation of targeted subsidies project and respective currency fluctuations in Iran, government imposed price ...
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This paper aims to evaluate the reaction of petrochemical and petroleum products markets (traded on the Iran Mercantile Exchange) to the removal of price ceilings imposed on it. After the implementation of targeted subsidies project and respective currency fluctuations in Iran, government imposed price controls on petrochemical market to prevent inflationary pressures of those events. Analysis of available data shows that after the price adjustment and the removal of price ceilings, the quantity of products supplied has increased and the quantity of products demanded has decreased. In particular, the demand for polymer and chemical products has decreased sharply by an amount of 80 and 57 percent respectively. Moreover, the share of speculative trading has decreased while the share of competitive trading has increased. Comparing the prices discovered in Iran Mercantile Exchange and the black market prices shows that a fraction of consumers have purchased the required raw materials from black market. The results of panel data model show that the removal of the price ceilings has had a significant negative effect on the excess demand in the petrochemical and petroleum markets: the excess demand (more than 3 thousand tones) has turned into an excess supply (156 tones). Removing the price limits has had the greatest impact on polymer products market where an excess demand of 4.76 thousand tones has turned into an excess supply of 29 tones. On the whole, the results of this paper show that the price ceiling policy had significant effects and it has had considerable distortionary effects on the market.
