Research Paper
saeed moshiri; Habib Morovat; Farhad Fallahi; Mohammad Reza Asghari Oskoei; Meisam Doustizadeh
Abstract
We develop an agent-based model to study the effects of the electricity market reform on the electricity prices, the power plants’ technology mix as well as their capacity utilization and profits. The reform’s main objective is to open the electricity market to more competition and increase ...
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We develop an agent-based model to study the effects of the electricity market reform on the electricity prices, the power plants’ technology mix as well as their capacity utilization and profits. The reform’s main objective is to open the electricity market to more competition and increase the efficiency. The new wholesale electricity market will operate based on the one-day-ahead auctions organized by the independent system operator. We set up two scenarios in which the market clearing mechanism changes from the pay-as-bid to market clearing price (MCP) and the fuel subsidy to power plants will be removed. The effects of the two scenarios will be analyzed on the market prices, plant revenues, market shares, and power generating units’ capacities. The simulation results show that the electricity prices are higher during the peak load mainly due to the entry of the higher cost plants during those periods. Electricity prices are lower under the MCP scenario and higher under the fuel subsidy removal scenario, leading to lower and higher revenues for the power plants, respectively. The results also indicate that the market shares and the capacity utilization of the more efficient plants will increase under both scenarios.
Research Paper
Ali Asghar Banouei; Afsaneh Sherkat
Abstract
The problem of spatial equilibrium and disequilibrium has always been one of the main concerns of policy makers and regional planners in Iran. Two prerequisites, which have not been considered by regional analysts in Iran, are highlighted to explain this problem: First, the recognition of theoretical ...
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The problem of spatial equilibrium and disequilibrium has always been one of the main concerns of policy makers and regional planners in Iran. Two prerequisites, which have not been considered by regional analysts in Iran, are highlighted to explain this problem: First, the recognition of theoretical foundations of place-based and place-neutral theories, and, second, the use of integrated and coherent statistics such as the MRIOT. The main purpose of this paper is to examine these two issues while using a multi-regional model with special emphasize on the feedback effects, based on following three questions: Is there a direct relationship between the size of GDP of different regions with their spillover and feedback effects? Which regions have a greater role in the spatial equilibrium? And finally, which sectors do play a greater role in the spatial equilibrium of the country? For answering the above questions, for the first time in Iran, the MRIOT is calculated. The MRIOT comprises nine regions based on the latest approval of the Supreme Council for Spatial Planning using the FLQ-RAS mixed method, within the framework of seven economic sectors for year 2011. Findings show that: First, there is no direct relationship between the size of GDP and the spillover effects of the regions. Second, the feedback effects of the regions with smaller GDP are higher which would potentially play a greater role in creating spatial equilibrium in the country. Third, the feedback effects of the agricultural related industries in eight regions are higher than that of the other economic sectors. This suggests that, this sector can be considered as the driving force behind the spatial equilibrium in the country.
Research Paper
Mahdie Rezagholizade; Malihe keyvanpor
Abstract
One important aspect of financial development in oil-exporting countries is how to allocate oil income during periods of oil price fluctuations. Financial development in these countries affects their current accounts in two ways: directly through the impact on savings and investment and indirectly ...
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One important aspect of financial development in oil-exporting countries is how to allocate oil income during periods of oil price fluctuations. Financial development in these countries affects their current accounts in two ways: directly through the impact on savings and investment and indirectly through the impact on the relationship of oil prices and current account. Considering the importance of this issue, this study investigates the role of financial development in the relationship between oil price and current account using a nonlinear Smooth Transition Regression model (STR) during the period of 1978-2016 in Iran. Based on the relevant tests, it is concluded that there is a nonlinear relationship between the current account and world oil price. Financial development is chosen as the best transition variable and the nonlinear Smooth Transition Regression model with a two-regime logistic transition function (LSTR1) has been chosen as the best model for this relationship. The results of estimation show that the oil price appearing in the form of a two-regime structure with a threshold level (1.5386) in the first regime (when financial development is less than it’s threshold value (1.5386)) has a positive and significant effect on Iran’s current account; The intensity of this positive effect increases by crossing the threshold level entering to the second regime (when financial development is higher than its threshold value (1.5386).
Research Paper
Esmaiel Abounoori; Mansour Tour
Abstract
Information about optimal risk hedge ratio, optimal weight of asset portfolios, the intensity and direction of impact of shock and volatility on financial markets is important for investment, policy, risk management and development of financial markets. In this study, to examine risk hedge ratio, optimal ...
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Information about optimal risk hedge ratio, optimal weight of asset portfolios, the intensity and direction of impact of shock and volatility on financial markets is important for investment, policy, risk management and development of financial markets. In this study, to examine risk hedge ratio, optimal weight of asset and the volatility spillover among Iran, the United States, Turkey and UAE stock markets, multivariate GARCH model is estimated using the weekly stock index data from December 15, 2008 to April 10, 2017. Independence of Iran stock market from other markets is due to the relatively low volatility of the Iran stock market and the insignificant correlation between the Iran market and other markets, so risk hedge ratio and optimal weight of assets between the stock market of the studied countries and Iran is low. Also the results indicate considerable own ARCH and GARCH effects on the stock market of these countries. The US economy is relatively large, thus other markets have no significant effect on this market as expected. Most of the eigenvalues of the ARCH and GARCH effects matrix has been slightly smaller than unit, which indicates that relative stability in these markets has been low against domestic and foreign shock and volatility.
Research Paper
Habib Ansari Samani; Robabeh Khilkordi
Abstract
The distribution of income, which means the distribution of national income between groups, social classes and economic sectors, is one of the main components of social justice. There are many factors affecting the income distribution. The purpose of this study is to identify the effect of unemployment ...
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The distribution of income, which means the distribution of national income between groups, social classes and economic sectors, is one of the main components of social justice. There are many factors affecting the income distribution. The purpose of this study is to identify the effect of unemployment rate along with other major factors related to income distribution in Iran’s provinces. For this purpose, the annual data for Iran’s provinces during 1999 to 2014, with DOLS estimator have been analyzed. The results show that increasing unemployment in the long run will increase the income inequality in the provinces. Also, inflation rate, economic growth rate and current government spending increase the Gini coefficient in the long run. Error correction model results indicate that, unemployment and government size variables have no significant relationship with the dependent variable in the short run. However Inflation rate and economic growth rate have a positive relationship with inequality in the short run.
Research Paper
Soghra Darvishi; Ahmad Ali Kehkha; Mahmood Ahmadpoor Borazjani
Abstract
In this study, a bio economic model is used to estimate social optimization of the high hunting of migratory birds in Freydunkenar wetland. According to the results of the bio economic model, calculating optimal hunting level considering amenity values, result in higher optimal number of wetlands and ...
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In this study, a bio economic model is used to estimate social optimization of the high hunting of migratory birds in Freydunkenar wetland. According to the results of the bio economic model, calculating optimal hunting level considering amenity values, result in higher optimal number of wetlands and birds than the usual values. However by increasing the cost of preparing wetlands, these values are reduced. Reducing the cost of maintenance and restoration of wetlands increases the optimum value of all variables significantly. The results of the above model show that when the value of ecosystem services in wetlands and other compatible values are taken into account in calculations, the optimal social value of wetlands increases.
Research Paper
Sara Montazeri; Alireza Jorjorzadeh; Mehdi Basirat
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to study the effects of inequality, poverty and environmental pollution on health index in developing as well as developed countries. To reach this goal, data has been used for 23 developed and 94 developing countries. The maximum time period covered by this study was from 1990 ...
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The aim of this paper is to study the effects of inequality, poverty and environmental pollution on health index in developing as well as developed countries. To reach this goal, data has been used for 23 developed and 94 developing countries. The maximum time period covered by this study was from 1990 to 2015 in which unbalanced panel data has been used. To select the appropriate model to estimate the final model, panel stationarity test and Hausman test has been done. The result of tests suggest that fixed effects model for estimating health regression for developing countries is an appropriate one which shows that poverty and different indicators of pollution as well as income inequality have negative effect on health index (child mortality rate) and education index has a positive effect on the health in this countries .The results also show that in developed countries environmental pollution indices , income inequality index and urbanization rate have a negative and significant effect on health index and per capita health expenditure has a positive effect on the health of people in this countries.
