Research Paper
Welfare, poverty and income distribution
Hamidreza Navvabpour
Abstract
Most countries of the world define poverty as a lack of money. Yet poor people themselves consider their experience of poverty much more broadly. A person who is poor can suffer from multiple disadvantages at the same time. Therefore, focusing on one factor alone, such as income, is not enough to capture ...
Read More
Most countries of the world define poverty as a lack of money. Yet poor people themselves consider their experience of poverty much more broadly. A person who is poor can suffer from multiple disadvantages at the same time. Therefore, focusing on one factor alone, such as income, is not enough to capture the true reality of poverty. In Iran several studies have been done to calculate multidimensional poverty index, but most of them have been used household income and expenditure survey data that have limitation to calculate related indicators. The purpose of the study is to calculate and measure multidimensional poverty and the contribution of each dimension to overall poverty at the provincial levels of Iran using the Alkier-Foster method to assist policymakers in poverty alleviation. In this study, the data of the Multiple Indicator Demographic and Health Survey (MIDHS) of 2015, which includes 33013 households and more data to offer, has been used. The results show that, in addition to Khuzestan and Qom provinces, Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) was particularly high in provinces on the eastern borders, while the provinces located on the northern, southern, and part of the western borders of the country, experienced less poverty. The contribution of each dimension to overall poverty also showed that the type of deprivation experienced by households in the provinces of Iran in 2015 was different.
Research Paper
Political economy
Farshad Moameni; hojjatollah mirzaei; ali jafari shahrestani
Abstract
Before 1990th, in political economy theories, the security of property rights was to be presumed. The importance of property rights as the underlying factor of economic growth and economic development was first noticed by new institutional economists and then expanded. This paper studied the Marxist ...
Read More
Before 1990th, in political economy theories, the security of property rights was to be presumed. The importance of property rights as the underlying factor of economic growth and economic development was first noticed by new institutional economists and then expanded. This paper studied the Marxist and methodological individualism political economy approaches that have been used by researchers to describe the main reasons for the underdevelopment of Iran with a focus on property rights.The weakness of them all is inadvertence to Iranian historical features and failure to present an independent theory regarding the inefficiency of property rights in the history of Iran. Therefore, using the new institutional approach, which is based on historical studies and society institutions and using them in the analysis of the role of property rights on underdevelopment and not just studying the series of historical developments and geographical features, could be a facilitator. In this way, this paper suggests focusing on these features of Iran:1) Specific climatic conditions of Iran with the lack of water, which is the main reason for tension;2) The effect of climate conditions on political and economical systems (the government theory) and forming nomadism and tribal life and tribal governments;3) The effect of forming those political and economical system on property rights underdevelopment (the property rights theory).
Research Paper
Financial Economics
Reza Taleblou; mohammad mehdi bagheri todeshki
Abstract
This paper investigates the impact of sentiment as a critical risk factor in the capital market, leading to behavioral deviations in the pricing of financial assets. We propose an estimation of the asset pricing model based on the Stochastic discount factor (SDF) framework, incorporating both traditional ...
Read More
This paper investigates the impact of sentiment as a critical risk factor in the capital market, leading to behavioral deviations in the pricing of financial assets. We propose an estimation of the asset pricing model based on the Stochastic discount factor (SDF) framework, incorporating both traditional and behavioral approaches. By extending the consumption-based asset pricing model (CCAPM) and introducing sentiment into the utility function through the Euler equations and the generalized method of moments (GMM), we analyze the Tehran Stock Exchange.To quantify sentiment, we utilize the market turnover sentiment index as a reliable indicator. Our study covers the period from 1390 to 1399 and encompasses 18 stock exchange groups, consisting of 63 listed companies on the Tehran Stock Exchange.The results indicate that the behavioral SDF model offers higher consistency and efficiency compared to the traditional model, aligning closely with the dynamics observed in the Tehran Stock Exchange. Moreover, the coefficient of sentiment proves to be statistically significant. In terms of risk, the behavioral model demonstrates higher coefficients than the traditional model. Interestingly, both models suggest that market participants exhibit a high time preference factor and demonstrate patience in their investment behavior.
Research Paper
Behavioral economics
Morteza Khorsandi; Mahnoush abdollahmilani; Teymur Mohamadi; pardis hejazi
Abstract
The effect of income on subjective-wellbeing (as one of the criteria for measuring mental well-being) has been considered in many studies but various dimensions of this effect have not yet been studied. The study aims to investigate the nonlinear effect of income on the subjective-wellbeing of 58 selected ...
Read More
The effect of income on subjective-wellbeing (as one of the criteria for measuring mental well-being) has been considered in many studies but various dimensions of this effect have not yet been studied. The study aims to investigate the nonlinear effect of income on the subjective-wellbeing of 58 selected countries during 2005 to 2020, which has been studied in two scenarios. For this purpose, a PSTR model developed from regime change models has been used. In the present study, the effects of income, unemployment, inflation, life expectancy, and income inequality on subjective-wellbeing have also been investigated. According to the obtained results, in a nonlinear relationship, the effect of GDP on subjective well-being at a certain threshold value of income inequality is decreasing. Therefore, if increasing national income and reducing income inequality as a factor affecting welfare is considered by politicians, it is also important to note that reducing inequality from a certain threshold onwards reduces the impact of income on welfare. This means that from a certain threshold on income inequality, the focus of governments on reducing income inequality should be reduced so that resources are spent on essentials.
Research Paper
Behavioral economics
Habib Morovat; Ali Asghar Salem; shayan mohammadsharifi
Abstract
Several factors are effective in the growth and development of the stock market. One of these factors is the behavior and performance of individual investors in these markets. Individual investors are interested in investing in the stock market for various reasons, such as long-term capital growth, dividends, ...
Read More
Several factors are effective in the growth and development of the stock market. One of these factors is the behavior and performance of individual investors in these markets. Individual investors are interested in investing in the stock market for various reasons, such as long-term capital growth, dividends, and hedging against the decline in purchasing power caused by inflation. But their performance in this market, in addition to the general economic and stock market conditions, depends on the individual characteristics of the investor. Therefore, in this study, an attempt has been made to determine the significance of demographic characteristics such as age and gender, risk-taking and degree of patience, behavioral biases such as overconfidence and loss aversion, and investment characteristics such as experience and investing skill, and frequency of portfolio restructuring on the individual investor performance in the Tehran stock market. For this purpose, using systematic sampling, the required information was collected from 240 questionnaires from the population of individual investors in the Tehran stock market. Data analysis using the ordinal logit model showed that the variables of age, gender, and degree of risk taking do not have a significant effect on the performance of real investors. The degree of patience of people has a positive and significant effect on the performance of investors, and more patient people get more returns. Overconfidence and loss aversion have a negative and significant effect on investors' performance, and finally, investment experience and skill have a positive and significant effect on investors' performance.
Research Paper
Political economy
Hossein Tavakolian; reza talebloo; Shaghayegh Abasali
Abstract
Despite, the measures for improvement of the State budget system in the current economic situation in Iran, no improvement has been taken. As, the relationship between beneficiaries of the budget included the government, parliament, regulatory bodies, and people as the final beneficiary of budget, has ...
Read More
Despite, the measures for improvement of the State budget system in the current economic situation in Iran, no improvement has been taken. As, the relationship between beneficiaries of the budget included the government, parliament, regulatory bodies, and people as the final beneficiary of budget, has not regulated properly, therefore, transparency and accountability of the various officials of the government has been decreased. In this paper, we study budgetary and off-budgetary operation of the government and its impact on inflation with emphasis on fiscal dominance via banking system, using Generalized Methods of the Moments (GMM) trough 1372-1397. The results indicate that increasing the fiscal dominance via the debt channel of banking system has positive effect on inflation thus, fiscal dominance via banking system has been proved. Also, the results confirm the negative relationship between political stability and control of corruption on inflation. This variable has been in a low level during the sample period which requires the attention of government in all areas and political factions of country.
Research Paper
Planning and Budget
samira ghanbari; Hamid Amadeh; Davood Danesh Jafari; teymoor mohammadi
Abstract
Today, financing through health insurance is known as one of the most important sources of financing in the health sector. In this regard, improving the level of satisfaction of the insured and increasing their access to medical services are among the most important goals of health insurance organizations, ...
Read More
Today, financing through health insurance is known as one of the most important sources of financing in the health sector. In this regard, improving the level of satisfaction of the insured and increasing their access to medical services are among the most important goals of health insurance organizations, and organizations that provide access to suitable services without imposing a financial burden on their insured will be successful. For this purpose, the balance in the revenue sources and expenses of the organizations in question is very important. the purpose of this research is to examine the budget balance in five funds of Iran Health Insurance Organization during the period of 2008-2019 using monthly data and also to analyze the factors affecting the budget deficit of these funds including premiums, coinsurance, treatment and overhead costs and the number of services purchased by various funds of Iran Health Insurance Organization, from the perspective of their mediating role in reimbursement, behavior management and purchasing medical services, using by panel vector error correction model, in order to provide a solution to eliminate the budget deficit. The obtained results showed that in the long run, coinsurance paid by the insured and the premium paid to different funds of Iran Health Insurance Organization had a negative effect on the budget deficit of the mentioned funds. In contrast, the increase in treatment and overhead costs and the number of services purchased by Five funds of Iran Health Insurance Organization exacerbated the problem of budget deficit of these funds.
Research Paper
Economic Development
mahya allahgholi; Farshad Moameni
Abstract
Considering the economic complexity index as a development index due to its greater estimation power in predicting economic growth and income inequality compared to similar indices, along with shortcomings such as the inability to express the difference in the complexity levels of economies, it makes ...
Read More
Considering the economic complexity index as a development index due to its greater estimation power in predicting economic growth and income inequality compared to similar indices, along with shortcomings such as the inability to express the difference in the complexity levels of economies, it makes the theoretical model to explain this index inevitable. In the social orders approach, the type of social order is mentioned as the difference between developed and developing economies, and in this article an attempt has been made to identified determinants of this index. In this study by descriptive analytical method the state of property rights, the business environment and the type of people`s access to organizations are known as three variables affecting this index. analyzing Iran`s economic complexity index during 10-period (2010-2020) and three indexes, international property rights, ease of doing business and economic freedom, respectively as an estimation of those variables, shows that the international property rights index has a stronger positive relationship with the economic complexity index than the other two indices.
Research Paper
Economic Development
mohaddaseh soleimani; Aliasghar Banouei; Esfandiar Jahangard; teymor mohamadi
Abstract
Innovation and technological changes spans various geographical locations over the time.The inability of Input-Output models in measuring the effects of technology changes, caused by new innovations, is known as a weakness of these models. In this article, we show how this weakness can be addressed by ...
Read More
Innovation and technological changes spans various geographical locations over the time.The inability of Input-Output models in measuring the effects of technology changes, caused by new innovations, is known as a weakness of these models. In this article, we show how this weakness can be addressed by employing the fields of influence method. Technology changes are modeled as changes of one or more elements in the direct coefficients matrix and the impact of such changes in the Leontief matrix is measured. Here is the main question: Does the technology changes only impact a limited sector or the entire economical system? In other words, how would technology changes in one sector impact other sectors of economic system? The main goal in this paper is proposing a method which can measure how different sectors get impacted by changes at different levels such as one element, all elements, one row or one column and then evaluates the importance of different sectors. To this aim, Iran’s Input-Output tables over the period of 1365-1395 with the fixed price of Iran’s statistics center in 1390 is used. The impact of technology changes on each sector is measured using Leontief’s inverse matrix and the column field of influence approach (CFOI) approach. Our findings indicate that over this period of time, technological changes in the industry and then construction sectors have the most influence and the mining sector has the least influence on other sectors of Iran’s economy.
Research Paper
Financial Economics
Mohammad Feghhi Kashani; Teymor Mohammadi; hadi pirdaye
Abstract
Corporates adjust their information voluntary disclosure according to the volatilities they experience in their cash flows. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of news concerning risk, ambiguity level, and investors' ambiguity aversion on the policy adopted by firms as to the voluntary ...
Read More
Corporates adjust their information voluntary disclosure according to the volatilities they experience in their cash flows. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of news concerning risk, ambiguity level, and investors' ambiguity aversion on the policy adopted by firms as to the voluntary disclosure (conservative or non-conservative) of soft and hard information in the digital industry subset of Tehran Stock Exchange within the period of 2012-2022. Further, we have used the corporate voluntary disclosure lag to capture the disclosure dynamics along with the control variables including the cost of capital, financial leverage and stock liquidity by dynamic panel models to explain the voluntary disclosure behavior of soft and hard information of the corporates. The results indicate that managers of companies active in the digital industry, depending on the type of information available to them for voluntary disclosure conservatively or non-conservatively, respond differently to the news related to risk, ambiguity and ambiguity aversion of investors. That could be due to the nature of the disclosed information (credibility of information for investors). Likewise, the findings confirm the increasing effects of voluntary disclosure of previous periods on the disclosure of subsequent periods, which somehow confirms the existence of inertia in voluntary disclosure policies in the studied industry.
Research Paper
Monetary economy
Hossein Esfandiar; teymoor mohammadi
Abstract
Thanks to Blockchain technology the future of banking can take place without intermediaries (especially banks), and in this regard, Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDCs) and stablecoins of BigTechs are mentioned as the main competitors of the new monetary era. Based on this fact and in parallel with ...
Read More
Thanks to Blockchain technology the future of banking can take place without intermediaries (especially banks), and in this regard, Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDCs) and stablecoins of BigTechs are mentioned as the main competitors of the new monetary era. Based on this fact and in parallel with the efforts of most countries on the (theoretical and experimental) investigation of CBDC’s aspects, this article, using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, in the period Q1 1388 to Q4 1400, economic effects of issuance of RamzRial (Iranian CBDC) was modeled and analyzed. In our model, RamzRial is an account-based, widely available to the general public, interest-bearing and cash complementary money, and the results of the implementation of quantitative and price rule policies were examined in the presence of RamzRial. The results of the model based on the data and calibration indicate that the issuance of RamzRial, while diversifying central bank tools, will improve the effectiveness of monetary policies in the event of (supply and demand) external shocks. One of the significant results, especially for the stagflation condition of Iran’s economy, says that through issuing (an appropriate amount of) RamzRial the central bank can implement disinflation programs while reducing its unwanted negative effects on production. Also, in addition to influencing the level of production, consumption, investment and employment, the results of our model prove that with the introduction of the RamzRial in parallel with cash balances, the most important factor affecting the transmission mechanisms is the dynamics of transaction cost deviations.
Research Paper
Financial Economics
Reza Taleblou; Parisa Mohajeri; Abbas Shakeri; teymoor mohammadi; zahra zabihi
Abstract
Achieving the correct insight into the structure of connectedness and the spillover of volatilities between different stock exchange industries plays an important role in risk management and forming an optimal stock portfolio. Also, the analysis of inter-sectoral connectedness helps policy makers in ...
Read More
Achieving the correct insight into the structure of connectedness and the spillover of volatilities between different stock exchange industries plays an important role in risk management and forming an optimal stock portfolio. Also, the analysis of inter-sectoral connectedness helps policy makers in designing policies that stimulate economic growth and implementing preventive measures to curb the propagation of systemic risk. In this regard, this article tries to use the data of 3370 trading days during the period of 1388/07/01 to 1402/06/31, encompassing 20 stock market industries (which constitute more than 80% of the Iranian stock market) and applying the connectedness approach based on the vector autoregression model with time-varying parameters (TVP-VAR), to estimate the systemic risk and volatility connectedness of the stock market network. In addition, we implement the minimum connectedness approach in the optimal stock portfolio and compared its performance with two other conventional approaches. The findings reveal that, first; the systemic risk in Iranian stock market is significant and has reached unprecedented figures of 80% in the last three years. Second, the four major export industries (petrochemicals, metals, mining and refining) experience the strongest pairwise connectedness, and among them, base metals appear as one of the most important transmitters of volatilities to the entire stock network. Thirdly, the stock portfolio based on the minimum connectedness method, compared to the minimum variance and minimum correlation methods, shows a better performance based on the criteria of cumulative return and hedge ratio efficiency.
Research Paper
Political economy
somayeh nematollahi; Farshad Moameni; Alireza Garshasbi
Abstract
This article aims to investigate the effect of regulatory level on the growth of industrial added value and compare it in developed and developing countries. For this purpose, the estimation of a non-linear equation with the panel GMM method and delta method has been used for the years 2000 to 2019. ...
Read More
This article aims to investigate the effect of regulatory level on the growth of industrial added value and compare it in developed and developing countries. For this purpose, the estimation of a non-linear equation with the panel GMM method and delta method has been used for the years 2000 to 2019. The estimation results in a sample of 99 countries show an inverted U-shaped relationship between regulatory variables and industrial growth, and for about 67% of the sample observations, the level of growth regulation has increased and its effect on industrial growth is positive and significant. . Also, in this example, the growth maximization level for regulation was 2.61 (on a scale of 0-10). Another important result is that the nature of the relationship between regulation and industrial growth in developed countries is fundamentally different from developing countries. In particular, while the model estimate for developing countries is consistent with the findings related to the total observations and is in the form of an inverted U relationship, the findings related to developed countries are completely different and the maximizing level of industrial growth for these countries It was not observed that the reason is related to institutional differences in these two spectrums.
