Research Paper
Planning and Budget
samira ghanbari; Hamid Amadeh; Davood Danesh Jafari; teymoor mohammadi
Abstract
Today, financing through health insurance is known as one of the most important sources of financing in the health sector. In this regard, improving the level of satisfaction of the insured and increasing their access to medical services are among the most important goals of health insurance organizations, ...
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Today, financing through health insurance is known as one of the most important sources of financing in the health sector. In this regard, improving the level of satisfaction of the insured and increasing their access to medical services are among the most important goals of health insurance organizations, and organizations that provide access to suitable services without imposing a financial burden on their insured will be successful. For this purpose, the balance in the revenue sources and expenses of the organizations in question is very important. the purpose of this research is to examine the budget balance in five funds of Iran Health Insurance Organization during the period of 2008-2019 using monthly data and also to analyze the factors affecting the budget deficit of these funds including premiums, coinsurance, treatment and overhead costs and the number of services purchased by various funds of Iran Health Insurance Organization, from the perspective of their mediating role in reimbursement, behavior management and purchasing medical services, using by panel vector error correction model, in order to provide a solution to eliminate the budget deficit. The obtained results showed that in the long run, coinsurance paid by the insured and the premium paid to different funds of Iran Health Insurance Organization had a negative effect on the budget deficit of the mentioned funds. In contrast, the increase in treatment and overhead costs and the number of services purchased by Five funds of Iran Health Insurance Organization exacerbated the problem of budget deficit of these funds.
Research Paper
Economic Development
mohaddaseh soleimani; Aliasghar Banouei; Esfandiar Jahangard; teymor mohamadi
Abstract
Innovation and technological changes spans various geographical locations over the time.The inability of Input-Output models in measuring the effects of technology changes, caused by new innovations, is known as a weakness of these models. In this article, we show how this weakness can be addressed by ...
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Innovation and technological changes spans various geographical locations over the time.The inability of Input-Output models in measuring the effects of technology changes, caused by new innovations, is known as a weakness of these models. In this article, we show how this weakness can be addressed by employing the fields of influence method. Technology changes are modeled as changes of one or more elements in the direct coefficients matrix and the impact of such changes in the Leontief matrix is measured. Here is the main question: Does the technology changes only impact a limited sector or the entire economical system? In other words, how would technology changes in one sector impact other sectors of economic system? The main goal in this paper is proposing a method which can measure how different sectors get impacted by changes at different levels such as one element, all elements, one row or one column and then evaluates the importance of different sectors. To this aim, Iran’s Input-Output tables over the period of 1365-1395 with the fixed price of Iran’s statistics center in 1390 is used. The impact of technology changes on each sector is measured using Leontief’s inverse matrix and the column field of influence approach (CFOI) approach. Our findings indicate that over this period of time, technological changes in the industry and then construction sectors have the most influence and the mining sector has the least influence on other sectors of Iran’s economy.
Research Paper
Financial Economics
Mohammad Feghhi Kashani; Teymor Mohammadi; hadi pirdaye
Abstract
Corporates adjust their information voluntary disclosure according to the volatilities they experience in their cash flows. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of news concerning risk, ambiguity level, and investors' ambiguity aversion on the policy adopted by firms as to the voluntary ...
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Corporates adjust their information voluntary disclosure according to the volatilities they experience in their cash flows. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of news concerning risk, ambiguity level, and investors' ambiguity aversion on the policy adopted by firms as to the voluntary disclosure (conservative or non-conservative) of soft and hard information in the digital industry subset of Tehran Stock Exchange within the period of 2012-2022. Further, we have used the corporate voluntary disclosure lag to capture the disclosure dynamics along with the control variables including the cost of capital, financial leverage and stock liquidity by dynamic panel models to explain the voluntary disclosure behavior of soft and hard information of the corporates. The results indicate that managers of companies active in the digital industry, depending on the type of information available to them for voluntary disclosure conservatively or non-conservatively, respond differently to the news related to risk, ambiguity and ambiguity aversion of investors. That could be due to the nature of the disclosed information (credibility of information for investors). Likewise, the findings confirm the increasing effects of voluntary disclosure of previous periods on the disclosure of subsequent periods, which somehow confirms the existence of inertia in voluntary disclosure policies in the studied industry.
Research Paper
Monetary economy
Hossein Esfandiar; teymoor mohammadi
Abstract
Thanks to Blockchain technology the future of banking can take place without intermediaries (especially banks), and in this regard, Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDCs) and stablecoins of BigTechs are mentioned as the main competitors of the new monetary era. Based on this fact and in parallel with ...
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Thanks to Blockchain technology the future of banking can take place without intermediaries (especially banks), and in this regard, Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDCs) and stablecoins of BigTechs are mentioned as the main competitors of the new monetary era. Based on this fact and in parallel with the efforts of most countries on the (theoretical and experimental) investigation of CBDC’s aspects, this article, using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, in the period Q1 1388 to Q4 1400, economic effects of issuance of RamzRial (Iranian CBDC) was modeled and analyzed. In our model, RamzRial is an account-based, widely available to the general public, interest-bearing and cash complementary money, and the results of the implementation of quantitative and price rule policies were examined in the presence of RamzRial. The results of the model based on the data and calibration indicate that the issuance of RamzRial, while diversifying central bank tools, will improve the effectiveness of monetary policies in the event of (supply and demand) external shocks. One of the significant results, especially for the stagflation condition of Iran’s economy, says that through issuing (an appropriate amount of) RamzRial the central bank can implement disinflation programs while reducing its unwanted negative effects on production. Also, in addition to influencing the level of production, consumption, investment and employment, the results of our model prove that with the introduction of the RamzRial in parallel with cash balances, the most important factor affecting the transmission mechanisms is the dynamics of transaction cost deviations.
Research Paper
Financial Economics
Reza Taleblou; Parisa Mohajeri; Abbas Shakeri; teymoor mohammadi; zahra zabihi
Abstract
Achieving the correct insight into the structure of connectedness and the spillover of volatilities between different stock exchange industries plays an important role in risk management and forming an optimal stock portfolio. Also, the analysis of inter-sectoral connectedness helps policy makers in ...
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Achieving the correct insight into the structure of connectedness and the spillover of volatilities between different stock exchange industries plays an important role in risk management and forming an optimal stock portfolio. Also, the analysis of inter-sectoral connectedness helps policy makers in designing policies that stimulate economic growth and implementing preventive measures to curb the propagation of systemic risk. In this regard, this article tries to use the data of 3370 trading days during the period of 1388/07/01 to 1402/06/31, encompassing 20 stock market industries (which constitute more than 80% of the Iranian stock market) and applying the connectedness approach based on the vector autoregression model with time-varying parameters (TVP-VAR), to estimate the systemic risk and volatility connectedness of the stock market network. In addition, we implement the minimum connectedness approach in the optimal stock portfolio and compared its performance with two other conventional approaches. The findings reveal that, first; the systemic risk in Iranian stock market is significant and has reached unprecedented figures of 80% in the last three years. Second, the four major export industries (petrochemicals, metals, mining and refining) experience the strongest pairwise connectedness, and among them, base metals appear as one of the most important transmitters of volatilities to the entire stock network. Thirdly, the stock portfolio based on the minimum connectedness method, compared to the minimum variance and minimum correlation methods, shows a better performance based on the criteria of cumulative return and hedge ratio efficiency.
Research Paper
Political economy
somayeh nematollahi; Farshad Moameni; Alireza Garshasbi
Abstract
This article aims to investigate the effect of regulatory level on the growth of industrial added value and compare it in developed and developing countries. For this purpose, the estimation of a non-linear equation with the panel GMM method and delta method has been used for the years 2000 to 2019. ...
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This article aims to investigate the effect of regulatory level on the growth of industrial added value and compare it in developed and developing countries. For this purpose, the estimation of a non-linear equation with the panel GMM method and delta method has been used for the years 2000 to 2019. The estimation results in a sample of 99 countries show an inverted U-shaped relationship between regulatory variables and industrial growth, and for about 67% of the sample observations, the level of growth regulation has increased and its effect on industrial growth is positive and significant. . Also, in this example, the growth maximization level for regulation was 2.61 (on a scale of 0-10). Another important result is that the nature of the relationship between regulation and industrial growth in developed countries is fundamentally different from developing countries. In particular, while the model estimate for developing countries is consistent with the findings related to the total observations and is in the form of an inverted U relationship, the findings related to developed countries are completely different and the maximizing level of industrial growth for these countries It was not observed that the reason is related to institutional differences in these two spectrums.
Research Paper
Employment
Shima Namazi Zavareh; Farshad Momeni; Ali Asghar Salem
Abstract
In order to face the challenge of youth poverty, the main focus should be on facilitating the access of the NEET population to quality education and decent job opportunities. Considering that this group of people is a potential threat to the country's achievement of one of the most important goals of ...
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In order to face the challenge of youth poverty, the main focus should be on facilitating the access of the NEET population to quality education and decent job opportunities. Considering that this group of people is a potential threat to the country's achievement of one of the most important goals of sustainable development, i.e. ending poverty through decent work and economic growth, and they turn the young population into a challenge and not an opportunity in the economy, Examining the impact they have on poverty and the impact they receive from poverty is very important. In this regard, the aim of this article is to investigate the simultaneous relationship between household poverty and population phenomenon in the urban and rural society of Iran in 1401. For this purpose, using the detailed data of urban and rural households' expenditure and income plan, the poverty line was first calculated based on the multidimensional poverty approach and poor households were identified. Then, the households that have demographic phenomena were also identified. The results of the estimation of the research model using the two-stage least squares method (2SLS) showed that in urban areas, population phenomenon and poverty both have a positive and significant effect on each other. Unlike in urban areas, the results of the estimation of the research model in rural areas indicated that the population phenomenon does not have a significant effect on household poverty, but on the other hand, household poverty has a positive and significant effect on it.
Research Paper
Employment
Shima Namazi Zavareh; Farshad Momeni; Ali Asghar Salem
Abstract
A major reason for pushing people towards informal jobs is the motivation of necessity. In fact, informal employment is a kind of survival strategy for those who have no other way to earn money and support themselves and their families except by working in these types of low-paid jobs. At the level of ...
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A major reason for pushing people towards informal jobs is the motivation of necessity. In fact, informal employment is a kind of survival strategy for those who have no other way to earn money and support themselves and their families except by working in these types of low-paid jobs. At the level of development, the continuation of this trend affects the economic competitiveness and the quality of life of the citizens, and the foundation of national production and technological and innovative production faces serious limitations. the purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of household poverty along with other socio-economic factors on informal employment in urban areas of Iran in 2019. For this purpose, by using the detailed data of the expenditure and income plan of urban households, first, the poverty line was calculated based on the absolute poverty approach for urban areas and poor households were identified. Then according to the index presented in this research, the type of employment of households was determined in terms of formal and informal. The results of estimating the research model using the two-stage Heckman Probit method indicate that household poverty leads to a significant increase in informal employment, so that with an increase in poverty, the probability of being informally employed increases by 0.57. The strategic message of this study is that the problem of poverty and informal employment in Iran can be overcome only by upgrading the technological production base and creating value-creating capabilities based on increasing productivity.
Research Paper
Econometrics
Mohammad Feghhi Kashani; Teymor Mohammadi; zahra Aghighi
Abstract
One of the key challenges in empirical studies relates to the identification of the dynamics of bubbles that periodically run up and collapse. This study is an attempt in this field, which initially examines some limitations of one of the relatively new methods in the economic literature as to the identification ...
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One of the key challenges in empirical studies relates to the identification of the dynamics of bubbles that periodically run up and collapse. This study is an attempt in this field, which initially examines some limitations of one of the relatively new methods in the economic literature as to the identification of rational bubbles in the Tehran Stock Exchange for the period of 2009-2020. Then, by assuming the Markov switching regime approach in this area, we have extended the conventional method by taking into account the dynamic interaction of asset prices in the market with the latent factor in the process of bubbles expansion and collapse. It is shown how this framework, while improving the efficiency of detecting financial bubbles through mitigating the specification error of dynamic models compared to existing alternative methods, is capable of incorporating the feature of traders' interactions in the market with no specific assumptions on how they interact, especially with regard to the coordination of their expectations and pursuant trading behavior. The findings resulting from this method indicate the existence of a bubble in asset prices only for the period 2018-2020, as opposed to the use of the conventional method, which implies either no bubble or the existence of two bubbly periods 2012-2014 and 2018-2020. in the Tehran Stock Exchange.
Research Paper
Econometrics
Mohammad Reza Salehi Rad; Manijeh Mahmoodi
Abstract
The modeling is a very important topic in economic and financial research and it has a basic role in the analyzes, decisions, the policies and planning. In the modeling, assumptions have an important role in estimation and forecasting, because they can affect the results of models and analyses. The one ...
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The modeling is a very important topic in economic and financial research and it has a basic role in the analyzes, decisions, the policies and planning. In the modeling, assumptions have an important role in estimation and forecasting, because they can affect the results of models and analyses. The one of the most widely used classical time series models is the autoregressive model, where the current values are the finite linear combination of its past values. On the other hand, in real problems, many variables affect each other. For this reason, the vector time series models are used, which are part of the multivariate time series. The Vector autoregressive models are used in economic and financial modeling. The vector autoregressive (VAR) models are usually considered with the normal distribution for the shocks (noises). Since, in economic and financial issues, especially macroeconomics, the shocks don’t have symmetric distribution. In this paper, the VAR model with the Multivariate Skew Normal (MSN) distribution for the shocks is considered and since, the estimation of the parameters is an important step in modeling, the parameters of the model are estimated by using the Expectation Conditional Maximization (ECM) algorithm. Finally, by using the real data sets of Canada and Iran where the shocks have skewness and the evaluation criteria of the models, it is shown that the VAR model with MSN distribution for shocks in these data is more efficient than the VAR model with the multivariate normal distribution for shocks.
Research Paper
Monetary economy
zahra bigdeli shamloo; Abbas Shakeri; Teymur Mohamadi; Syrous Omidvar
Abstract
The main purpose of this study is to analyze the nature of the money creation process by examining the approaches related to this process in Iran. The two main views regarding the money creation process are the endogenous and exogenous money approaches. The endogeneity of money means that the money supply ...
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The main purpose of this study is to analyze the nature of the money creation process by examining the approaches related to this process in Iran. The two main views regarding the money creation process are the endogenous and exogenous money approaches. The endogeneity of money means that the money supply is directly influenced by the economic activities and conditions in the economy, and it is not determined by central bank exclusively. The endogeneity of money can also be a very important factor in the efficiency and effectiveness of monetary policies on macroeconomic indicators. Therefore, in order to test the endogeneity based on post-Keynesian approaches, the two-stage method of the state-space approach was applied to determine a time-variable model of money supply using the annual data from 1357 to 1400 in Iran. The results indicate: firstly, money is endogenous. Secondly,the effect of explanatory variables on it is not constant over time, and therefore, it is necessary to change monetary policies from targeting on money aggregates according to the conditions of endogenous money.
Research Paper
Financial Economics
Ahmadreza Ahmadi; Mohammad Boushehri
Abstract
The expansion and deepening of the financial sector as one of the most important sectors of the economy of any country can affect tax evasion. In the present study, first, the relative size of tax evasion was calculated using the MIMIC method, which indicates an average of 8.1% in Iran's economy. Then, ...
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The expansion and deepening of the financial sector as one of the most important sectors of the economy of any country can affect tax evasion. In the present study, first, the relative size of tax evasion was calculated using the MIMIC method, which indicates an average of 8.1% in Iran's economy. Then, using the ARDL approach, the effect of the deepening of institutions and financial markets on tax evasion was investigated and tested separately using the indicators published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the period from 1980 to 2022. The results of long-run estimates show that both the deepening of financial institutions and the deepening of financial markets have a negative effect on tax evasion. Second, in terms of size (absolute value), the inverse effect of the deepening of financial institutions on tax evasion is more than the deepening of financial markets. Among the control variables of the model, the tax burden has an inverted U shape and oil rent has a positive effect on tax evasion. Another finding is that in the period after the JCPOA (2017-2022) the amount of tax evasion has significantly decreased.
Research Paper
Financial Economics
Majid Aghaei; amin razinattaj
Abstract
Given the intricate nature of financial markets and the pivotal role of their interrelationships in guiding investor and policymaker decisions, this research delves into the interplay between risk and return, as well as their spillover effects, among the stock market and its competing counterparts in ...
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Given the intricate nature of financial markets and the pivotal role of their interrelationships in guiding investor and policymaker decisions, this research delves into the interplay between risk and return, as well as their spillover effects, among the stock market and its competing counterparts in Iran, including the foreign exchange, gold, and housing markets, across various market conditions (bearish and bullish). Employing the multivariate GARCH model and utilizing monthly data spanning from 2011 to 2022, this study explores the dynamics between these financial markets. The findings reveal a discernible return spillover and volatility from the foreign exchange market to the stock market during both bearish and bullish conditions of the foreign exchange market. Similarly, a return spillover from the stock market to the foreign exchange market is evident during both bearish and bullish conditions of the stock market, underscoring the interdependence between these two markets. However, contrary to expectations, return spillover from the stock market to the gold market is not substantiated during either bearish or bullish conditions of the stock market. Conversely, return and volatility spillover from the gold market to the stock market is confirmed during both bearish and bullish conditions of the gold market. Moreover, the research does not ascertain the presence of return spillover and volatility from the housing market to the stock market during either bearish or bullish conditions of the housing market. However, return spillover from the housing market to the stock market is observed solely during the bearish condition of the stock market.
Research Paper
Institutional economy
Parviz Mohammadzadeh; Yavar Ahmadpour
Abstract
The repeated failure of structural adjustment policies in Iran has challenged the prevailing belief in their effectiveness. This paper adopts a problem-oriented approach, considering local conditions, to examine the economic roots of the shock therapy policy and its consequences for Iran’s economy ...
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The repeated failure of structural adjustment policies in Iran has challenged the prevailing belief in their effectiveness. This paper adopts a problem-oriented approach, considering local conditions, to examine the economic roots of the shock therapy policy and its consequences for Iran’s economy over the past three decades. By analyzing key factors influencing democracy—such as civil society, crises, revenue sources, inequality, the middle class, globalization, and the internet—it concludes that structural adjustment policies have weakened the foundations for democratic development.Given the socio-economic consequences of these policies, including poverty, unemployment, stagflation, and violence, their implementation has only been possible through undemocratic imposition. To enable participatory and democratic economic decision-making, this paper proposes several key measures: (1) acknowledging the crisis and taking responsibility; (2) establishing an autonomous bureaucracy and testing policy alternatives; (3) critically utilizing international experiences while exercising patience in national reforms; and (4) strengthening an organized society to counter the free-rider problem.Furthermore, the paper emphasizes that any transition planning must consider the logic of the natural state, which maintains a limited access order in decision-making and resource allocation. Without such awareness, conventional economic approaches may, in the name of transition, further entrench violence and disorder rather than facilitating progress.
Research Paper
Financial Economics
Mahdiyeh Reza Gholizadeh; Hossein Jafari; Narges Kafi
Abstract
In the resource curse literature, examining the effect of natural resource revenues on financial development is considered a complex issue, and the phenomenon of the financial resource curse has attracted the attention of many researchers. The impact of natural resource revenues on a country's financial ...
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In the resource curse literature, examining the effect of natural resource revenues on financial development is considered a complex issue, and the phenomenon of the financial resource curse has attracted the attention of many researchers. The impact of natural resource revenues on a country's financial development can be influenced by factors such as Progress Technological, financial market risk, and institutional quality. It is believed that these factors can determine whether natural resources act as a blessing or a curse. Given the importance of this issue, the present study investigates the effect of natural resource revenues on financial development, the development of financial institutions and financial markets, by considering the role of three key factors— Progress Technological, financial market risk, and institutional quality—in a selected group of resource-rich developing countries over the period 2000–2021. The analysis is conducted using the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) method.The results show that natural resource revenues contribute to the development of financial markets, and this positive effect is further strengthened by Progress Technological and institutional quality, while financial market risk weakens the positive relationship. On the other hand, the findings indicate that although the resource curse hypothesis is confirmed in relation to the overall financial development and the development of financial institutions, Progress Technological and institutional quality reduce the intensity of this negative impact, thereby weakening the curse. In contrast, financial market risk intensifies the resource curse.
Research Paper
Regional Planning
sayed Amin Mansouri; Seyed Morteza Afghah; Massod Khodapanah; Fateme Mombeini
Abstract
Measuring the level of economic development in the cities of Khuzestan Province is crucial due to its cultural, economic, and environmental significance. This assessment aids policymakers, researchers, and local communities in making informed decisions regarding policies and resource management, identifying ...
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Measuring the level of economic development in the cities of Khuzestan Province is crucial due to its cultural, economic, and environmental significance. This assessment aids policymakers, researchers, and local communities in making informed decisions regarding policies and resource management, identifying the root causes of economic disparities, and enhancing the resilience and sustainability of the region's economy. Khuzestan faces unique economic challenges such as dependency on oil industries and water resource management. Measuring economic development helps identify sectors that need support and guides the formulation of targeted policies for achieving a more diverse and resilient economy. This study assesses and compares the development levels of Khuzestan's counties in 2017 and 2020 using the taxonomy method with a focus on urban economy components. To this end, using agricultural indices, housing and welfare services indices, industrial indices, education indices, health and medical indices, macroeconomic indices, infrastructural and physical indices, and urban economy indices, a total of 65 indices were used to assess the level of development in the counties of Khuzestan province. In 2017, Abadan, Ahvaz, and Shushtar were the most developed counties, while Andika, Shadegan, and Haftkel had the lowest ranks. In 2020, Ahvaz and Abadan were economically leading, Behbahan and Dezful excelled in education, Mahshahr led in industry, and Dezful excelled in agriculture. Abadan was superior in healthcare. These results indicate that some counties have progressed, while others need more attention.
