The Threshold Effect of Fintech on the Impact of Oil Rent on Economic Growth in Iran
Volume 30, Issue 104, Autumn 2025, Pages 202-233
https://doi.org/10.22054/ijer.2025.83602.1335
Reza Maaboudi, Zeynab Dare Nazari
Abstract This study aimed to examine the threshold effect of fintech on the relationship between oil rents and economic growth in Iran. To analyze the relationships among variables, the study used a threshold regression approach and seasonal data from 2013 to 2022 in Iran. The results showed that oil rents had a significant negative impact on economic growth both before and after fintech reached its threshold level of 0.146. However, once Fintech surpassed this threshold, the magnitude of the resource curse effect on economic growth decreased. Additionally, the interaction effect between oil rents and fintech had a significantly negative effect on economic growth before fintech reached the threshold. After exceeding the threshold, however, the interaction effect became significantly positive, indicating that higher levels of fintech development mitigate the adverse impact of oil rents on economic growth. The inefficient allocation of oil revenues, accompanied by increased rent-seeking and corruption, constrains economic growth. In contrast, the expansion of fintech through digital technologies enhances access to financial services for firms and entrepreneurs in the non-oil sector. This improved access promotes employment and reduces the economy’s dependence on oil. Therefore, fintech development alleviates the negative effects of oil rents on economic growth. On the basis of the findings, it is recommended that the government promote the development of fintech platforms and blockchain technologies while strengthening oversight of oil revenue allocation within the public budget. In addition, policies should aim to facilitate access to capital for entrepreneurs and small businesses in high-technology sectors. Through optimal resource management and balanced development across production sectors, the negative effects of oil rents on economic growth can be reduced. Introduction The impact of natural resources on economic growth has long attracted the attention of researchers. Drawing on the resource curse hypothesis, some scholars argue that the mismanagement of natural resources can lead to corruption, increased unproductive investment, and rising economic inequality, all of which ultimately hinder economic growth (Yadav et al., 2024). Given the pivotal role of natural resources in encouraging economic growth, numerous studies have examined the validity of the resource curse hypothesis. Empirical evidence suggests that the effect of natural resource rents on economic growth—whether positive or negative—depends on various contextual factors, including financial technology (fintech). Fintech refers to technology-driven financial innovations that affect financial markets, institutions, and service delivery, resulting in the emergence of new business models, products, and applications. On the one hand, fintech can promote economic growth in resource-rich countries by improving households’ and firms’ access to credit and reducing economic uncertainty. On the other hand, fintech can reshape the relationship between natural resource rents and economic growth by fostering exports, enhancing organizational performance, reducing dependence on natural resources, and improving resource management. Therefore, it is essential to examine the role of fintech in the relationship between oil rents and economic growth in countries like Iran. A better understanding of how fintech influences this relationship can help policymakers design more effective strategies for managing oil revenues—mitigating the adverse effects of oil rents and potentially transforming the resource curse into a resource blessing. In this respect, the present study aimed to investigate the threshold effect of fintech on the relationship between oil rents and economic growth in Iran during 2013–2022. Materials and Methods The current study used the models proposed by Gao et al. (2024) and Li et al. (2024) to examine the threshold effect of fintech on the relationship between oil rents and economic growth. The dependent variable—gross domestic product (GDP)—was specified as a function of the interaction term between fintech and oil rent, oil rent, physical capital, labor force, human capital, government size, and a sanctions dummy variable. Fintech was measured by the total value of transactions conducted via the internet and mobile phones for online purchases and bill payments, capturing the payments dimension of fintech. Oil rents were measured as the ratio of the difference between the value of crude oil production and oil production costs to GDP. Human capital was measured by the number of university students in Iran, and the government size was measured as the ratio of government consumption expenditure to GDP. All variables were expressed in log-differenced form, using quarterly data covering the period 2013–2022. The data was obtained from the Central Bank of Iran and the World Bank. Real values were calculated using the consumer price index (CPI), with 2016 as the base year. The model was estimated through a threshold regression approach, in which the interaction terms between oil rents and fintech, as well as between oil rents and government size, would appear in both regimes. Results and Discussion The estimated threshold level of fintech was 0.146, corresponding to 24.01 percent of the fintech index. Once fintech exceeds this threshold, the coefficients of the variables undergo a structural change. The coefficient of oil rents in the first and second regimes was –0.27 and –0.18, respectively. Similarly, the interaction coefficient between oil rents and fintech was –0.02 in the first regime and 0.004 in the second regime. According to the results, oil rents reduce economic growth in both regimes, confirming the presence of the resource curse in Iran. In the first regime, the interaction between oil rents and fintech had a negative effect on economic growth. However, in the second regime, as fintech developed beyond the threshold level, this interaction became positive and growth-enhancing. The findings suggested that oil revenues, by fostering rent-seeking activities, tend to reduce economic growth. In contrast, fintech—by facilitating financial transactions through the internet and mobile phones—enhances financial inclusion. Improved financial inclusion increases entrepreneurs’ access to financial services, which in turn fosters export diversification. Furthermore, digital financial transactions enhance transparency and efficiency in tax collection, thereby reducing tax evasion. Lower levels of tax evasion increase government tax revenues and reduce reliance on oil income. Therefore, the expansion of fintech mitigates the resource curse effect. Government size exhibited a nonlinear relationship with economic growth. In the first regime, government size had a negative and statistically significant impact on growth, whereas in the second regime it exerted a positive and significant effect. This suggests that in the early stages of fintech development, an expansion in government size may hinder economic growth due to inefficiencies. However, as fintech advances, a larger government—through improvements in social and economic infrastructure—can contribute positively to economic growth. The results also indicated that growth in physical capital, labor force, and human capital all had positive and statistically significant effects on economic growth. Physical capital and labor are fundamental factors of production: the former enhances growth by expanding production capacity, while the latter contributes through division of labor and specialization. Human capital improves individual skills and productivity, thereby promoting economic growth. Finally, sanctions have a negative and significant effect on economic growth, as increased sanctions restrict access to international markets. Conclusion The findings indicated that in the lower regime—prior to reaching the threshold level—fintech remains underdeveloped and is therefore unable to mitigate the adverse effects of oil revenues on economic growth. However, once fintech surpasses the threshold, its continued expansion through the adoption of digital technologies improves firms’ access to financial services, particularly in the non-oil sector. Enhanced access to finance strengthens the capacity of non-oil firms to foster innovation and competitiveness, thereby reducing the dominant role of oil in the economy. Diminishing the centrality of oil also lowers the economy’s vulnerability to oil price volatility and geopolitical risks. Furthermore, by expanding access to financial services for households and entrepreneurs, fintech facilitates investment in human capital and contributes to higher employment levels. In addition, greater transparency in digital financial transactions reduces opportunities for corruption. Overall, by weakening the economy’s reliance on oil, promoting trade diversification, reducing dependence on oil exports, increasing employment, and curbing corruption, fintech development helps alleviate the resource curse in Iran.
Simulating the Effect of Population Aging and Government Policies on Economic Growth in the Context of an Overlapping Generation Model
Volume 27, Issue 91, Summer 2022, Pages 159-187
https://doi.org/10.22054/ijer.2022.60856.977
Mohaddeseh Saberi, Zahra Afshari, Ahmad Sarlak, Seyed Fakhroddin Fakhr Hosseini, Esmaeil Safarzadeh
Abstract In this paper, the effect of population aging on economic growth in a closed economy in which the element of human capital is endogenously formed is simulated. For this purpose the computable generalized Diamond overlapping generation’s model are used for a period of 50 years. First, the dynamic effect of aging on macroeconomic variables, especially economic growth, are simulated in the baseline scenario (current state of the Iranian economy).Then the dynamic effects of public policies under different scenarios of human capital and pensions ratios on economic growth for a period of 50 years are simulated. The results of the model showed that the government's general policies to increase human capital increase the share of skilled labor (effective labor) and therefore have a growth effect. At values of public policy tools above the baseline scenario(industrial status), the effect of productivity on aging prevails and long-term growth increases.In addition, the results showed that increasing the ratio of pensions to the level of developed countries encourages demand-based economic growth, but has a level effect and does not change long-term growth. The results show that increasing aging, if combined with government policies to promote human capital, can potentially offset the negative impact of aging on growth.
The Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Returns of Petrochemical Companies in Different Market Conditions
Volume 26, Issue 88, Autumn 2021, Pages 191-221
https://doi.org/10.22054/ijer.2021.50187.838
Hamid Reza Arbab, Hamid Amadeh, Amin Amini
Abstract This study investigated the factors that leads to economic uncertainty which may influence the petrochemical companies returns in various market conditions regarding their various levels of capital. To meet this object, we used quarterly data on government’s current expenditures, general government revenues, liquidity, GDP, and exchange rate, as the political variables for the years 1384-1397. Considering the type of available time series, we exercised the ARIMA-GARCH model to create an indicator to show the uncertainty of economic policies. We used the result to estimate the quantile regression model, along with other factors affecting corporate returns, including the price of the OPEC oil basket and the real rate of returns and market exchange rate. The results of this study indicated that in the bearish market, the greatest negative effect of each economic policy uncertainty is on the companies with lesser capital. Moreover, the intensity of this effect decreases as the market tends to change from bearish to bullish, and finally the economic policy uncertainty will have the least impact on companies with bigger capital.
The Impact of Financial and Banking Structure on Real Sector Growth in Iran
Volume 26, Issue 87, Summer 2021, Pages 165-194
https://doi.org/10.22054/ijer.2021.54008.892
Mohammad Ali Aboutorabi, Mehdi Hajamini, Sahar Tohidi
Abstract In recent decades, the effect of financial development on real sector growth has been discussed from different aspects. This paper focuses on financial structure and explains the role of bank-based and market-based financial structures on economic growth by classifying the literature. Using the FMOLS method for the period 1979-2016, the effects of financial structure and banking structure on per capita GDP and sectors’ growth (agriculture, industry, and services) in Iran are estimated. Empirical findings indicate that discriminating policies and bias in financial structure in favor of a specific sector has a negative effect on real sector growth, especially agriculture and industry. Therefore, in support of the design of a balanced financial structure, it is recommended that the state should avoid any intervention or discrimination in favor of a specific sector. In the case of banking structure, the findings show that increasing the financial strength of banks encourages economic growth.
The Impact of Private Banking on the Economic Production in Iran
Volume 26, Issue 86, Spring 2021, Pages 10-42
https://doi.org/10.22054/ijer.2020.47094.797
Farshad Momeni, Abbas Shakeri, Javad Taherpoor, Behnam Ezati Ekhtiar
Abstract In some economic theories emphasizing the positive relationship between financial and real sector development in economy, privatization of financial markets and institutions and increasing private sector share is the dominant approach to financial development. However, private banks performance in some countries have shown different results compared to the goals had been set. Lack of proper economic and institutional environment has led to adverse results of private banks. Considering mentioned issues, this study aims to assess the impact of private banking on the economic growth rate in Iran based on the seasonal data form 2003 till 2018 using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique. Results of the study have shown that financial development has a positive impact on the growth rate of economy, while, as the market share of private banks has increased, it had a negative effect on the economic growth. The main cause of this negative relationship is undesirable institutional environment which private banks are working in. Therefore, preparing suitable institutional framework is a condition to gain the private banks’ advantages. Central bank constant supervision alongside the enforcement authority prohibiting private banks from managing economic firms and the presence in the alternative markets are the main preconditions.
Institutions and Economic Growth: A Fundamental Analysis of the Institutional Barriers to Sustainable Economic Growth in Iran during the Second Pahlavi Period
Volume 26, Issue 86, Spring 2021, Pages 74-124
https://doi.org/10.22054/ijer.2021.48662.818
Salman Gharakhani, Mohsen Renani, Zahra Karimi
Abstract One of the prevalent theoretical models for understanding the historical roots of the underdevelopment of various societies is the new institutionalist theory of institutional quality improvement which emphasizes the fundamental origins of economic growth. According to this theory, societies with inclusive institutions will experience a sustainable economic growth and development by creating a creative destruction process and a generative rent distribution while moving toward evolutionary cycles. Societies with extractive institutions, however, will lag behind and decline in the long run due to the dominance of rent relations and the non-generative rent distribution while moving toward vicious cycles. During the second Pahlavi period, despite its short-term experience of economic growth, Iran moved to vicious cycles instead of evolutionary ones; therefore, in order to investigate this issue, the reasons for the lack of sustainable economic growth during this period will be addressed using the theory of institutional quality improvement. To this end, one of the most important institutional barriers to economic growth in this period will be addressed through examining the process of creative destruction on the political and economic market. The results of this study indicate that despite experiencing the short-term economic growth achieved under the shadow of extractive institutions during this period due to factors such as power struggles, dominance of personal relations over affairs, the non-generative rent distribution etc., the process of creative destruction did not take shape on the political and economic market, so that despite the abundance of sources of income and foreign aid, Iran could not maintain its economic growth and development.
The Role of Natural Capital in Economic Growth of Iran
Volume 26, Issue 86, Spring 2021, Pages 126-164
https://doi.org/10.22054/ijer.2021.42817.761
Alireza Keshavarz, Zakariya Farajzadeh
Abstract Natural capital has been introduced in growth models recently in order to address the growth differences among the countries. In this context, the objective of this study is to examine the role of introduced indices for natural capital in Iranian economic growth. To get the objective, Solow neoclassical growth model using the data for 1980-2015 was applied. The applied indices include ecological footprint, biological capacity, ecological footprint-capacity difference, ecological tension, and agricultural land. The findings showed a significant fluctuation of the natural capital indices contribution to growth. Production elasticity with respect to ecological footprint found to be in the rage of 0.02-0.04 while the corresponding values for biological capacity and agricultural land tends to increase, ranging from 0.10 to 0.15. The corresponding values for physical capital fall into the range 0.12-0.17. In addition, the appropriateness of CES production function revealed the validity of constant returns to scale assumption in Iranian economy.
Revisiting the Relationship between Economic Growth and Inflation in Iran Using Time-Frequency Analysis
Volume 25, Issue 85, Winter 2021, Pages 91-115
https://doi.org/10.22054/ijer.2020.43207.765
Mohammad Abdi Seyyedkolaee, Saleh Taheri Bazkhaneh
Abstract The relationship between economic growth and inflation is one of the long-standing issues in macroeconomics, which is theoretically and politically confronted with many controversies. This is especially important for the Iran's economy, which seeks to achieve price stability and accelerate economic growth. In this regard, the present study has used continuous wavelet transformation to provide a new insight into the relationship between economic growth and inflation with time-frequency analysis in 1369:2–1397:2. The results show that in the long run (more than 4 years), an increase (decrease) in economic growth is accompanied by a decrease (increase) in inflation. In addition, the increase in economic growth has caused inflationary pressures in limited form and in short run (1380-1383). Therefore, it is recommended that policy makers focus more on economic growth in the long run.
International Effects of Oil Price Shocks and Trade Spillover
Volume 25, Issue 83, Summer 2020, Pages 29-59
https://doi.org/10.22054/ijer.2020.43479.770
Elham Kheirandish, Saeed Moshiri, Naser Khiabani, Ahmadreza Jalali-Naini
Abstract Oil price shocks have direct and indirect impacts on the economies of oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. The direct impacts are through demand and supply channels and the indirect (spillover) impacts are through interaction between the countries. Most studies have focused on the direct effects of the oil price shocks in a specific country or a region and research works on indirect impacts are limited. In this research, the direct and indirect effects (spillover) of oil shocks on both groups of oil-exporting and oil-importing countries are estimated using a dynamic system model. The spillover effects are defined and measured by the “Trade Ratio” and “Weighted Average Economic Growth” indicators. The sample includes 30 oil-exporting and oil-importing countries with a share of 73 percent of the world’s economy. The results show that a positive oil price shock reduces economic growth in oil-importing countries and increases it in oil-exporting countries, but international trade between the oil- exporting and oil-importing countries mitigates the impact of oil shocks on economic growth of both groups.
The Impact of Innovation and Entrepreneurship on Economic Growth: An Intercountry Study
Volume 25, Issue 82, Spring 2020, Pages 121-148
https://doi.org/10.22054/ijer.2020.11912
Parviz Mohammadzadeh, Samaneh Khangaldizadeh, Shahram Kamangar
Abstract Considering the role of creativity, innovation and entrepreneurship in economic growth and development, addressing these issues can be of particular importance. Particularly, the effect of these variables on economic growth is ambiguous and the need for empirical examination of this relationship seems to be necessary. Some studies, including Schumpeter (1947) and Roemer (1986), have highlighted the prominent role of entrepreneurship and innovation in the process of economic growth. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of innovation (patent index) and entrepreneurship on the economic growth of selected countries, using GLS estimation method. For this purpose, data from 20 selected countries during the period 2001-2015 and the panel data approach have been used. The results of the model indicate that these two variables have a positive and significant effect on economic growth in the above countries ؛So that 1 percent increase in the rate of entrepreneurship and innovation (the number of patents registered) resulted in an increase of 13 and 4 percent, in the growth rate of these countries, respectively. Therefore, in the present study, creating an efficient innovation and entrepreneurship system is considered necessary to achieve appropriate economic growth.
Dynamics of the Effects of Deregulations in the Commodity and Labor Markets in MENA Countries: A Panel VAR Approach
Volume 24, Issue 80, Autumn 2019, Pages 37-67
https://doi.org/10.22054/ijer.2019.11112
Teimour Mohamadi, fatemeh azizkhani, hasan taee, Javid Bahrami
Abstract The results of many studies show that rigid regulations on product and labor markets are considered as a key factor in weakening the employment conditions and have led to high unemployment rates. Given the complicated regulations in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), studying the great dynamics of deregulation can give useful guidelines for lawmakers and policy makers. The aim of this paper is to study the effect of deregulations of commodity and labor markets on the growth and the unemployment rate in 20 MENA countries using GMM method and Panel VAR approach during the period 2005 – 2017. The results of this study show that deregulation in product and labor markets in the short run will reduce economic growth, increase unemployment and lead to recession. But in the long run, it will increase economic growth and reduce unemployment. The labor market reforms, as opposed to product market reforms, do not lead to major dynamics in economic growth. For policy-making in MENA countries, deregulation in the product market has priority over the labor market, since it has a stronger impact on the wavelength and durability of the effects.
Impact of Economic and Political Factors on Financial Corruption, Economic Growth and the Size of Government in Selected Oil Producing Countries: A System Panel Data Approach
Volume 24, Issue 79, Summer 2019, Pages 177-207
https://doi.org/10.22054/ijer.2019.10891
Hajar Mozafari Shamsi, Sara Ghobadi
Abstract One of pleasant subjects for economists, in the field of Macro-political economy, is investigating the impact of relevant factors on financial corruption. This study aims to investigate the effect of economic and political factors on financial corruption, economic growth, and the size of government as well as their interaction effects in the selected oil producing countries over the 2003-2014 period. To estimate the model, system panel data approach is applied based on Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator. The results showed that an improvement in the economic growth, size of government, democracy, rule of law and access to sound money variables decrease financialcorruption of selected oil producing countries. Also, improving the size of government, political stability, democracy, business regulations variables and decreasing financial corruption has led to economic growth of the selected countries. Finally, improving economic growth, increasing oil revenues and urbanization has increased the size of government in these countries.
Economic Consequences of Population Aging for Iranian economy :Application of General Equilibrium Overlapping Generations Model
Volume 24, Issue 78, Spring 2019, Pages 31-60
https://doi.org/10.22054/ijer.2019.10162
Zahra Kashanian, hosein raghfar, Mir Hossein Mousavi
Abstract Population aging was one of the most important concerns of the last century all over the world. In this study, in order to investigate the effect of demographic changes on some macroeconomic variables, Diamond two-stage overlapping generation model (OLG model) is applied. In this model, we consider an economy inhabited by two-period lived overlapping generations, the length of each period is considered thirty years. From the life cycle perspective, the first period represents working period and the second one is considered as the retirement period. This model consists of three sectors: household, government and production which operate in a competitive market. Simulations indicate that 6 components affect the economic growth: labor supply, savings rate, capital deepening and public investment have positive effects and elder labor supply and tax have negative effects on growth. The component of capital deepening and public investment respectively has the strongest impact on economic growth. The model has some predictions based on the replacement of endogenous growth with exogenous growth. Predictions about endogenous and exogenous growth shows the replacement has negligible impact on the results.
Population Aging, Life Expectancy and Economic Growth
Volume 22, Issue 73, Winter 2019, Pages 159-196
https://doi.org/10.22054/ijer.2018.8302
Saleh Ghavidel, Nasim Mirghiyasi
Abstract In this paper, the impact of population aging on economic growth is estimated regarding the population growth factor and life expectancy index. For this purpose, the methods of differentiation, averaging and virtual variables have been utilized through the compilation of the data gathered from 146 countries during 1990-2013 aimed at controlling the unobservable factors. The results demonstrate that the negative impact of population aging on economic growth appears in countries wherein the life expectancy index is above 70 whereas in countries with a life expectancy of less than 70 years the impact of population aging on economic growth is not negative. Furthermore, the results of this research show that the population growth rate has a positive effect on economic growth only when the population above 65 years old accounts for at least 18% and a maximum of 21% of the total population. In countries wherein the population over 65 exceeds the above-mentioned percentage, the positive effect of population growth on economic growth is undermined.
Factors Affecting Health Expenditures in Islamic Countries of D-8 Group
Volume 23, Issue 77, Winter 2019, Pages 195-215
https://doi.org/10.22054/ijer.2018.10152
Navid Kargardehbidi, Effat Ghorbanian, Fatemeh Fathi
Abstract Given the existence of a mutual relationship between human health and economic growth in societies, determining factors influencing human health can be effective in formulating executive policies and plans. The present study is designed to assess the effects of economic growth, government consumption expenditures and age dependency rate on health expenditures in Islamic countries of D-8 group during 1997-2014. Regarding the results of stationary tests, a new approach to panel econometric data -Panel Auto-regressive Distribution Lag (Panel ARDL) -was used to study the long-run and short-run relationship. Health goods and services for D-8 countries are considered as luxury and essential goods in the long-term and short-term. Also, two indicators of age old dependency ratio and young age dependency ratio, have a positive and negative impact on per capita health expenditure, respectively.
Factors Affecting Economic Growth in ECO Countries with Emphasis on the Role of Tariffs
Volume 23, Issue 74, Spring 2018, Pages 191-217
https://doi.org/10.22054/ijer.2018.8828
Hosein Mohammadi, Morteza Mohammadi, Parisa Alizadeh
Abstract Achieving a higher rate of economic growth is one of the main goals of each country that policymakers often pay special attention to it. Therefore, investigating the causes of economic growth is important. Import tariffs as one of the most important factors affecting economic growth have been neglected in many previous studies. Therefore, the aim of this study is examining factors affecting economic growth in ECO countries with an emphasis on the role of import tariffs during the period 1996-2014. The results of dynamic panel data using PMG estimator show that the effect of import tariffs on economic growth in the short and long run is negative and significant. In addition, the effect of trade liberalization on economic growth in the short run is positive and significant. Therefore, by reducing import tariffs and moving toward more trade liberalization, economic growth in ECO countries increases. Furthermore, the labor force had a negative effect and human capital had a positive effect on the economic growth. Finally, results showed that physical capital had the most effect on economic growth in this group of countries. Therefore, improving the business environment, encouraging private investment, moving toward more competition in economic activities with trade liberalization, and moving toward more economic transparency are some recommendations of the current study.
Misallocation of Resources and Economic Growth in Iran: An Input-Output Approach
Volume 21, Issue 69, Winter 2018, Pages 73-115
https://doi.org/10.22054/ijer.2017.7504
Esfandiyar Jahangard
Abstract The Iranian economy suffers from low economic growth despite having access to enormous reserves of natural resources. The role of investment rate as the driving force of economic growth has been the focus of much debate among macroeconomists. This raises an important question: Why does growth in Iran remain low despite of high investment? One way to answer this question is to look at the relationship between economic structures and performances. Contributing to the literature in the field, we incorporate intermediate goods in our calculation of inter sectoral resource allocation for the purposes of production analysis over the period of 1973-2011. Five national input-output tables for the years of 1973, 1986, 1991, 2001 and 2011 consisting of 19 sectors in current prices have been used in this study. The results showed that the average production multiplier is 1.8. The overall findings revealed that the structural transformation has shifted from agriculture to some industries and service sectors which differs from the experiences of developing and developed countries.
The Impact of Economic Sanctions on Gross Domestic Product and Social Welfare for Iran: Generalized Stochastic Growth Model
Volume 20, Issue 63, Summer 2015, Pages 37-69
https://doi.org/10.22054/ijer.2015.4093
Hossein Marzban, Ali Hossein Ostadzad
Abstract Ongoing sanctions on Iranian economy have proved to be very harmful and detrimental to Iranian economic affairs and social welfare. Evaluating the unfair impacts of these sanctions on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and social welfare is the aim of this paper. Firstly, we have developed a generalized growth model in the presence of sanctions while treating exchange rate as a random variable. Secondly, three different forms of sanctions are introduced into the model and their bearings on national product and social welfare is studied. The first tier of the sanctions is imposed on consumption, intermediary and capital goods while exchange rate is assumed to have a random behavior. Then sanctions are also imposed on Iranian oil and gas production. We have devised several scenarios using stochastic Hamilton Bellman Jacobian value function (SHBJ) and genetic algorithm optimization methods. Our results of the first and second scenario imply that the level of social welfare is mostly affected by oil and gas sanctions while goods embargo has targeted goods production. The effects of sanctions on GDP and social welfare is represented by a concave curve. This curvature shows that the impact of sanctions on GDP and social welfare is stronger at the beginning than later on when further sanctions are introduced. In the third scenario oil, gas and goods sanctions are imposed simultaneously. Our results also show that the third scenario effects is stronger than the other two. According to the Gross Domestic Product data acquired for year 1390, oil and gas sanctions have lowered the GDP by 30 percent, while the overall reduction in GDP through all sanction collectively is estimated between 30 to 50 Percent.
The Impact of Human Capital on Economic Growth in Iran: A Nonlinear Approach
Volume 20, Issue 63, Summer 2015, Pages 121-144
https://doi.org/10.22054/ijer.2015.4096
Seyed Saleh Akbar Mousavi, Jafar Haghighat, Mohammdreza Salmani Bishak
Abstract Recent technological advances have increased the importance of human capital over the past years. In this paper, we study the impact of human capital on economic growth in Iran using the nonlinear STR method for the period 1345-1389. To this end, we estimate a two regime Logistic Smooth Transition Dynamic Regression (LSTR) model in which the transition variable is the logarithmic change in human capital. The results show that the impact of human capital on growth is different in two regimes. In the first regime, if the human capital growth rate is below the threshold value, the effects of human and physical capital on economic growth will be negative and positive, respectively. In the second one, human capital has positive and significant impact on economic growth. The main conclusion of the study is that it is crucial to take the type of regime into account.
Financial Development and Economic Growth
Volume 20, Issue 62, Spring 2015, Pages 139-162
https://doi.org/10.22054/ijer.2015.2493
Seyed-nezamuddin Makiyan, Mohammad Reza Izadi
Abstract Among the important factors that affect on economic growth such as physical and human capital, openness of economy etc., the role of financial intermediaries on economic growth has been overlooked. This research aims to investigate the role of financial structure and development as the indices of financial system development on economic growth. To this end, the study uses a regression analysis applying FMOLS method for the period of 1989 to 2011 for the selected Islamic countries. The results indicate that variables of financial structure and financial development have significant positive effects on economic growth. According to the findings, financial system based on market approach is more effective concerning the economic growth. Furthermore, the Granger Causality test indicates that there is a one-way causal relation between development of financial system and economic growth in the short run; however, this relationship has a two-way direction in the long run confirming the Patrick’s viewpoint of development.
Evaluation of the Factors Affecting Income Inequality
Volume 19, Issue 61, Winter 2015, Pages 117-147
Yeganeh Mousavi Jahromi, Farhad Khodadad Kashi, Alame Moosapour Ahmadi
Abstract In the presentstudy,the evaluation of different economic factors’ impact on income inequality in Iran has been considered during the period 1363-1390. In order to achieve this, Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag method is used. The results indicate that the rate ofeconomic growth and inflation rate havenegative influence and income tax, labour productivity and gas and oil revenue has a positive influence on income equality.Also based on the results, it can be stated that the relationship between economic growth and income distribution confims Kuznets and Kaldor’s view.
The structural stability tests indicate the estimated model is stable. In addition, according to calculated elasticities, it can be concluded that revenue fromincome tax has had the most effect on reducing incomeinequality in Iran during the mentioned period.
The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment in Dealing with Financial Development on Economic Growth (Case Study of Islamic Countries)
Volume 19, Issue 61, Winter 2015, Pages 149-171
Hosein Mohammadi, Mahboubeh Narouei
Abstract Many economists insist that the financial market is a key factor in economic growth due to the role of financial markets in financing and capital formation in different countries. With the development of endogenous growth models in recent decades, researchers pay more attention to the relation between financial markets and economic growth. In this study, the empirical relationship between Foreign Direct Investment in dealing with financial development on economic growth investigated in 25 Islamic countries over the period 1990 to 2012 using Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). The results show that the interaction between foreign direct investment and market-based indicators of financial development causes economic growth.
Fuzzy Estimation of Combined Depreciation Index for Selected Developing Countries
Volume 18, Issue 56, Autumn 2013, Pages 95-122
Ali Saedvandi, Hossein Sadeghi, Zahra Keshavarzi
Abstract Although depreciation is a crucial factor in economic growth models, little effort has been made to estimate depreciation rates. In this study, we attempt to estimate integrated fuzzy indicators for depreciation rates in 21 comparable developing countries. In the framework of fuzzy logic, first, we combine ten related variables to obtain four depreciation indicators, namely human, social, physical, and natural capital. Then the four indicators are combined to obtain an overall depreciation rate. The results indicate that remarkable gap exists among developing countries. The overall depreciation rates are at the highest level in the CIS countries (circa 0/7) and at the lowest level in some of the developing European nations (circa 0/4). Due to lack of information, the exact estimation of a combined depreciation indicator seems impossible for Iran; nevertheless, we estimate a minimum boundary for this country, which indicates the dismal situation of capital preservation in Iran.
The Effectiveness of Government Size on Economic Growth in Iran (by Boundaries Testing Approach)
Volume 18, Issue 54, Spring 2013, Pages 27-53
Behzad Alipour, Mehdi Pedram, Iman Charghanian
Abstract We analyse short-run and long-run effects of government size on the economic growth of Iran ,using 1353-90 time series .the results of estimation , by using of ARDL and boundaries testing approach, indicate convergence of the dynamic model to the long-run trend. The error correction model also show that 59 present of departure from the long-run trend will be corrected in every period. The long-run estimation shows a positive relation between oil price, oil revenues and ratio of investment to the real GDP as independent variables and economic growth as dependent variable, and a negative relation between government size and a dummy variable for war and revolution as independent variables and economic growth.
Investigation the Effects of Capital Market on Economic Growth in Iran Through Microeconomics Approach (Firm Level 1370-1390)
Volume 18, Issue 54, Spring 2013, Pages 93-118
Amir Khademalizadeh
Abstract New generation of growth models considers the effects of financial development on economic growth. The new financial literature takes a micro approach with emphasis on the external finance. In this research we examine the empirical relationship between capital market and economic growth, encompassing 27 superior firms of Tehran Stock Exchange during 1380-1390, which may being considered as a financial investigation in Iran’s Capital Market at the firm level. This paper is organized to examine the hypothesis that the external finance increases the sales and output growth rate of firms in Tehran Exchange, and therefore the aggregate economic growth. The results obtained in this paper through generalized method of moments (GMM) analysis indicate that financing both banks and capital market respectively, has increased sales and growth rate to 65.3 and 53.8 in our sample. Furthermore the sales growth rate of 27 firms that used external finance has a positive and significant relation with net sales ratio to fixed assets which indicate the positive role of capital market on economic growth in Iran. The Policy recommendation of this research is developing the capital market through definition and introduction of new financial instruments in order to absorb liquidity for efficient firms in Iran’s Capital Market.
