Authors

Department of Economics, Firoozkooh Branch, Azad University, Firoozkooh, Iran

Abstract

In this paper, the impact of population aging on economic growth is estimated regarding the population growth factor and life expectancy index. For this purpose, the methods of differentiation, averaging and virtual variables have been utilized through the compilation of the data gathered from 146 countries during 1990-2013 aimed at controlling the unobservable factors. The results demonstrate that the negative impact of population aging on economic growth appears in countries wherein the life expectancy index is above 70 whereas in countries with a life expectancy of less than 70 years the impact of population aging on economic growth is not negative. Furthermore, the results of this research show that the population growth rate has a positive effect on economic growth only when the population above 65 years old accounts for at least 18% and a maximum of 21% of the total population. In countries wherein the population over 65 exceeds the above-mentioned percentage, the positive effect of population growth on economic growth is undermined.

Keywords

راغفر، حسین، میرحسین موسوی و زهرا کاشانیان (1391)، « اثر پدیده سالمندی بر رشد اقتصادی»، فصلنامه علمی - پژوهشی معرفت فرهنگی - اجتماعی، شماره 1، صص 132-121.
مهرگان، نادر و روح‌الله رضائی (1388)،« اثر ساختار سنی جمعیت بر رشد اقتصادی»، فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی ایران، سال سیزدهم، شماره 39، صص 146-137.
Andersson, Bjorn (2001), "Scandinavian Evidence on Growth and Age structure", Regional Studies, vol. 35, No 5, pp. 377-390.
Berg, Lennart. (1996), "Age Distribution, Saving and Consumption in Sweden", Working Paper Series, Vol. 22, Department of Economics Uppsala University.
Bloom, D. E & David Canning & Günther Fink, (2011), "Implications of Population Ageing for Economic Growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(4), pp. 583-612.
Bloom, D. E & David Canning& Karen Eggleston,(2015), "Human Capital & Ageing," Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts.
Bloom, D. E., D. Canning, R. K. Mansfield and M. Moore (2007), "Demographic Change, Social Security Systems and Savings," Journal of Monetary Economics 54: 92-114.
Costa, D. (1998), The Evolution of Retirement: An American Economic History 1880-1990. Chicago, University of Chicago Press.
Dychtwald, K. (1999), Ken Dychtwald on the Future. San Francisco Chronicle. San Francisco.
Fogel, R. W. (1994), "Economic Growth, Population Theory, and Physiology: The Bearing of Long-Term Processes on the Making of Economic Policy." American Economic Review 84: 369-95.
Fogel, R. W. (1997), New Findings on Secular Trends in Nutrition and Mortality: So Implications for Population Theory. Handbook of Population and Family Economics. M. Rosenzweig and O. Stark, eds. Amsterdam, Elsevier. 1A.
Greenspan, A. (2003), Aging Global Population. Testimony before the Special Committee on Aging, U.S. Senate.
Lindh, Thomas(1999),"Age Structure and Economic Policy : The Case of Saving and Growth" , Population and Policy Review,18, pp. 261-277.
Malmberg, B.(1994), Age Structure Effects on Economic Growth: Swedish Evidence. Scandinavian Economic History Review, Vol. 42, pp. 279-295.
Nordhaus, W. (2003), The Health of Nations: The Contribution of Improved Health to Living Standards. Measuring the Gains from Medical Research: An Economic Approach. K. H. Murphy and R. H. Topel. Chicago, University of Chicago Press.
Peterson, P. G. (1999), "Gray Dawn: The Global Aging Crisis", Foreign Affairs.
Preston, S. H. (1975), "The Changing Relation between Mortality and Level of Economic Development." Population Studies 29(2): 231-48.
United Nations (2015), "Department of Economic and Social Affairs", Population Division World Population Ageing 2015 (ST/ESA/SER.A/390).
United Nations (2015), World Population Prospects: The 2015 revision.
Wooldridge, J.M. )2013(, Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (5thed.). Mason, OH: South-Western, Cengage Learning.
World Development Indicators World Bank.
World Health Organization (2006), "Obesity and overweight". http://www.who. int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs311/en/index.html.