Monetary economy
aso esmailpour; Jafar Haghighat; zahraa karimi tekanlou
Abstract
In this research, an attempt is made to use the generalized factor vector (FAVAR) self-explanatory approach, during the period of 1370 to 1400, annually with a relatively small scale, to investigate macroeconomic and housing market shocks. to be Recent surveys indicate an increase in attention to models ...
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In this research, an attempt is made to use the generalized factor vector (FAVAR) self-explanatory approach, during the period of 1370 to 1400, annually with a relatively small scale, to investigate macroeconomic and housing market shocks. to be Recent surveys indicate an increase in attention to models in which a wide range of economic information is used in their design. This has been made possible by supplementing the traditional vector autoregression (VAR) models by using one or more factors. The impact of production shocks, inflation, exchange rate, oil revenues and money volume has been investigated. To estimate the housing price level from the four housing price indices, fuel and lighting, real estate index, rent and business activities; The index of rental housing in Tehran and the price index of construction services are used to estimate the level of investment in the housing sector. Investment in new houses in big cities, total investment in new houses in Tehran, number of permits issued by municipalities in all urban areas, number of permits issued by municipalities in cities The size and number of licenses issued by municipalities in Tehran. According to the obtained results, the shocks of the amount of money, inflation, production, oil revenues and exchange rate create a wave-like effect in the housing sector, which lasts for about 6 to 8 years in the housing sector.
Political economy
Behrouz Sadeghi Amroabadi; Ehsan Kazemi
Abstract
Improving the quality of institutions with development of the country's economic infrastructure can reduce the degree of fiscal policy cycles in developing countries. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of good governance and political cycles on the liquidity and budget deficit ...
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Improving the quality of institutions with development of the country's economic infrastructure can reduce the degree of fiscal policy cycles in developing countries. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of good governance and political cycles on the liquidity and budget deficit changes during 1978-2018. The research method is descriptive analytical by using econometric method of the GMM. Data are from the Central Bank of Iran and World Bank site for Iranian Economy. The research results show the effect of good governance on the variables of liquidity and budget deficit changes are negative and significant. Also the interactive effects of good governance and the election dummy variables on the liquidity and budget deficit changes are negative and significant. These results indicate that good governance during the elections can control the budget deficit and liquidity changes, hence to control the business-political cycles, suggest to improve the good governance in Iran.
International economy
Mahdi Yazdani; Fahimeh Mohebinia
Abstract
In the present study, the competitiveness of Iran's agricultural, industrial and in global markets services sectors has been investigated and analyzed. This measurement was taken by calculating four indicators of relative comparative advantage (RCA) at the level of two- and four-digit codes of ...
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In the present study, the competitiveness of Iran's agricultural, industrial and in global markets services sectors has been investigated and analyzed. This measurement was taken by calculating four indicators of relative comparative advantage (RCA) at the level of two- and four-digit codes of the International Industrial Standard Classification System for Economic Activities (ISIC) and using the data of Iran-world input-output tables during the period 1996-1995. The results show that out of 3 main subgroups of agriculture, only subdivisions of agricultural products, horticulture, livestock and poultry and hunting and other related activities, and out of 19 subdivisions of industry, only subdivisions of mineral extraction and other related materials, have RCA in all studied years. Other subsections have fluctuations in the presence or absence of comparative advantage, and some have a distinct RCA pattern. This situation has existed in 10 service sub-sectors of the country, but in general, the relative export advantage for service sub-sectors has not been identified in the whole period. In addition, the results of RCA index compatibility tests by performing 3 Cardinal, Ordinal and Dichotomous Measures show that the results of Ordinal tests are more satisfactory than the results of Dichotomous and Cardinal tests and therefore, the present study provides an Ordinal interpretation of RCA indicators in the formation of economic policies. Finally, the results of stability tests show that the indicators of comparative export advantage did not have a stable trend during the period.
Shekoofe Nagheli; Majid Maddah; Esmaiel Abounoori
Abstract
As the driving force behind economic growth in the world markets, export is the most significant objective of foreign trade policy. One of the requirements for expanding foreign trade is to examine modern models of international trade to identify the economic and political issues affecting the countries’ ...
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As the driving force behind economic growth in the world markets, export is the most significant objective of foreign trade policy. One of the requirements for expanding foreign trade is to examine modern models of international trade to identify the economic and political issues affecting the countries’ trade. For boosting economic growth, the majority of countries seek to expand trade with other countries, producing goods and commodities based on relative advantages. Various factors may affect the values of Iran’s exports to other countries, among which the leading institutional indicators, which are capable of providing suitable conditions for expanding the export markets of Iran, seem to be highly significant. In the present paper, the effect of political institutions on Iran's exports to West Asian countries during the period 2000-2015 is investigated and empirically analyzed by mixed regressive-spatial autoregressive model. The research employs a regression model with panel data based on different commodity groups in the six-digit codes of Iranian trade with West Asian countries. As the research findings show, the governance index, representing the political institutions, has positive and significant effects on exports and significantly affects Iran's exports.
Seyed Komail Tayebi; Khadijeh Nasrollahi; Mehdi Yazdani; Seyed Hassan Malekhosseini
Abstract
The exchange rate pass-through explains the relationship between changes in national currency and foreign trade of a country, while the responsiveness of trade to the currency changes depends on the perfect or imperfect degree of pass-through.
The objective of this study is to analyze the effect of ...
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The exchange rate pass-through explains the relationship between changes in national currency and foreign trade of a country, while the responsiveness of trade to the currency changes depends on the perfect or imperfect degree of pass-through.
The objective of this study is to analyze the effect of exchange rate pass-through on inflation in Iran as one of the main oil-exporting countries. To this end, we have specified a Structural Vector Auto-Regressive (SVAR) model including macroeconomic variables such as oil revenues, output gap, free market exchange rate, import prices, producer prices, consumer prices and money supply. To estimate the model, we have used quarterly data over the period 1991:1 - 2012:4.
Empirical results of the model estimation, which are in forms of impulse response functions and variance decomposition, have shown that although the degree of exchange rate pass-through to the price indices has been incomplete, changes in the exchange rate have led to fluctuations in the prices explaining partly Iran’s inflationary situation during the period under consideration. It also reveals the fact that a higher share of imported inflation implies the economy’s dependence on imports.
Allah Morad Seif; Musa Khoshkalam Khosroshahi
Volume 18, Issue 54 , April 2013, , Pages 181-204
Abstract
Resistance economy is a new concept that has been introduced with escalating U.S.-West sanctions against Iran's economy. In other words resistance economy is a set of management methods for minimizing the vulnerability of the economy to numerous external and internal risks. One of the sectors of the ...
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Resistance economy is a new concept that has been introduced with escalating U.S.-West sanctions against Iran's economy. In other words resistance economy is a set of management methods for minimizing the vulnerability of the economy to numerous external and internal risks. One of the sectors of the Iran's economy that has always been vulnerable to risk is the exchange market. This paper considering the vulnerability of exchange system attempts to introduce optimal exchange system for Iran's economy by presenting and estimating models for the study of the pathology of the currency exchange system. We could argue that there is no real exchange market in Iran's economy, because there is not a micro based supply and demand factors in the exchange market. Based on our findings, the following measures are recommended: implementing economic policies to diversify exports of goods and services, reforming institutional structures and the technology of productive sectors, increasing efficiency of production factors, especially labor productivity, enhancing the competitiveness of goods and services produced in the Iran's economy and finally diversifying sources of exchange supply from oil and related products and non-oil. Following the formation of exchange system, this paper proposes a managed floating exchange system as optimal exchange system for Iran's economy.
Majid Sameti; Bahareh Teimouri
Volume 17, Issue 50 , April 2012, , Pages 99-137
Abstract
We employ the modelling strategy of Garratt, Lee, Pesaran and Shin (2003a) to estimate a structural cointegrating VARX* model for Iran in which core macroeconomic variables of the Iranian economy are related to current and lagged values of a number of key foreign variables. The long run macroeconomic ...
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We employ the modelling strategy of Garratt, Lee, Pesaran and Shin (2003a) to estimate a structural cointegrating VARX* model for Iran in which core macroeconomic variables of the Iranian economy are related to current and lagged values of a number of key foreign variables. The long run macroeconomic relations for real money balances, interest rates, output, prices and exchange rates are identified and tested within this framework over the period 1979Q1-2007Q4. We make use of generalised impulse response functions to analyze the dynamic properties of the model following a shock to exogenous variables (oil prices and foreign interest rates). We also examine via the persistence profiles, the speed of adjustments to the long run relations following a system-wide shock. The results show that money demand relation and UIP-PPP (international parity conditions jointly) are not rejected within the model. Furthermore, these two long run relations have well-behaved persistence profiles in which the effects of system wide-shocks on the long run relations are transitory and die out eventually. However, both UIP-PPP and the money demand relations exhibit sluggish rates of adjustments to shocks. We also provide evidence for the excessive importance of oil price shocks for Iranian economy in our impulse response analysis.
Hamid Nazeman
Volume 16, Issue 46 , April 2011, , Pages 115-143
Abstract
This paper intends to address the problem of inflation in less developed, and transitional economies, where the institutions of market is not fully developed. It is argued that the conventional Neo-Classical policies based on rigid Monetarist views fail to properly address the problem in less developed ...
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This paper intends to address the problem of inflation in less developed, and transitional economies, where the institutions of market is not fully developed. It is argued that the conventional Neo-Classical policies based on rigid Monetarist views fail to properly address the problem in less developed economies, and as a result its policy prescriptions are bound to fail. In These economies the issue of persisting inflation and unemployment, presents a serious challenge, which requires a more realistic approach in studying the problem. Considering the case of Iran, following a brief review of the background of a dualistic structure in the economy, the nature of recent price changes and distribution patterns is analyzed for various income groups. Then it is argued that while the current price and subsidy reform could lead to higher economic efficiency, a significant success in this program requires however, supplementary macroeconomic reforms in several areas, towards the goal of greater economic growth and a more competitive position in global markets.
Mohammad Noferesti; Fardin Mohammadi
Volume 13, Issue 38 , April 2009, , Pages 31-52
Abstract
This paper analyzes a macro-micro linkage using a vector autoregressive model (VAR) for Iran comprising following variables: Gross Domestic Product(GDP), Inflation, Exchange Rate, Oil Revenue, Government Expenditure, Money Supply, and a Micro-simulation model of household budget. The procedure is a top-down, ...
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This paper analyzes a macro-micro linkage using a vector autoregressive model (VAR) for Iran comprising following variables: Gross Domestic Product(GDP), Inflation, Exchange Rate, Oil Revenue, Government Expenditure, Money Supply, and a Micro-simulation model of household budget. The procedure is a top-down, macro to micro simulation, aiming at evaluating the impact of macroeconomic shocks on the Iranian rural and urban household’s distribution of income. A representative of the Iranian rural and urban households, which involves social characteristics, is linked with household budget equations. Income is a function of social characteristic and macro economic variables in the household budget model. The research work is done through three steps:
First in the macro-model, variables and shocks are simulated during ten years (2006-2016). Second, in the micro-model, the incomes of the entire households are simulated after and before the shocks. Finally, the Gini coefficient index, as an inequality indicator, is calculated using the results of the second step. We have achieved the following results: GDP, inflation, weighted exchange rate and oil shocks increased inequality, while money supply and government expenditures decreased inequality for urban households. For rural households, GDP, inflation, government expenditure and oil shocks decreased inequality, while weighted exchange rate and money supply did not have any effect on inequality.
Hassan Heydari; Soheila Parvin
Volume 12, Issue 36 , October 2008, , Pages 59-84
Abstract
This paper investigates the forecasting performance of different time-varying BVAR models for Iranian inflation. Forecast accuracy of a BVAR model with Litterman’s prior compared with a time-varying BVAR model (a version introduced by Doan et al., 1984); and a modified time-varying BVAR model, ...
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This paper investigates the forecasting performance of different time-varying BVAR models for Iranian inflation. Forecast accuracy of a BVAR model with Litterman’s prior compared with a time-varying BVAR model (a version introduced by Doan et al., 1984); and a modified time-varying BVAR model, where the autoregressive coefficients are held constant and only the deterministic components are allowed to vary over time. Application using quarterly data of the Iranian economy from 1981:Q2 to 2006:Q1 shows that the performance of different specifications of time-varying BVAR models for forecasting inflation depends on the number of lags, hyper parameter that controls time variation, and forecast horizons. Our results, however, show that the modified time-varying BVAR model performs much better than other models regardless of the factors above.
Mohammad Bagher Beheshti; Reza Sadighnia
Volume 8, Issue 28 , October 2006, , Pages 39-60
Abstract
According to Kaldor, industry is an engine of economic growth. Following developed countries experiences, many developing countries have , selected industrialization strategy to boost their economic development. Iran was one of these countries that started industrialization policy in 1960s through an ...
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According to Kaldor, industry is an engine of economic growth. Following developed countries experiences, many developing countries have , selected industrialization strategy to boost their economic development. Iran was one of these countries that started industrialization policy in 1960s through an import substitution strategy.
The objective of this paper is to test the Kaldor's Engine of Growth, KEG, in Iranian economy. We apply cointegration and Granger casualty methods to test the Kaldor’s hypothesis in Iran using the data for the period 1959-2000.
The main finding of the research confirms KEG in Iranian economy.
