Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Assistant Professor of Economics, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran

2 Assistant Professor of Political Science, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran

Abstract

Improving the quality of institutions with development of the country's economic infrastructure can reduce the degree of fiscal policy cycles in developing countries. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of good governance and political cycles on the liquidity and budget deficit changes during 1978-2018. The research method is descriptive analytical by using econometric method of the GMM. Data are from the Central Bank of Iran and World Bank site for Iranian Economy. The research results show the effect of good governance on the variables of liquidity and budget deficit changes are negative and significant.  Also the interactive effects of good governance and the election dummy variables on the liquidity and budget deficit changes are negative and significant. These results indicate that good governance during the elections can control the budget deficit and liquidity changes, hence to control the business-political cycles, suggest to improve the good governance in Iran.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Alesina, A. (1987). Macroeconomic policy in a two-party system as a repeated game. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 102, 51-678.
Baltagi, B. (2005). Econometric analysis of panel data. England, Wiley Publisher, Third Edition.
Barberia, L. G., & Avelino, G. (2011). Do political budget cycles differ in Latin American democracies?. Economía, 11(2), 101-134.
Barişik, S., & Baris, A. (2017). Impact of governance on budget deficit in developing countries. Theoretical & Applied Economics, 24(2),111-130.
Barro, R. J., & Lee, J. W. (1996). International measures of schooling years and schooling quality. The American Economic Review, 86(2), 218-223.
Besley, T. (2006). Principled agents? The political economy of good governance. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Bostashvili, D., & Ujhelyi, G. (2019). Political budget cycles and the civil service: Evidence from highway spending in US states, Journal of Public Economics, 175, 17–28.
Cao, X., Kostka, G., & Xu, X. (2019). Environmental political business cycles: the case of PM 2.5 air pollution in Chinese prefectures, Environmental Science and Policy, 93, 92–100.
Castro, V., & Martins, R. (2018). Politically driven cycles in fiscal policy: In depth analysis of the functional components of government expenditures, European Journal of Political Economy, 55, 44-64.
Cioffi, M., Messina, G., & Tommasino, P. (2012). Parties, institutions and political budget cycles at the municipal level. Bank of Italy Temi di Discussione (Working Paper) No, 885.
De Haan, J., & Klomp, J. (2013). Conditional political budget cycles: a review of recent evidence. Public Choice, 157(3-4), 387-410.
Doytch, N. (2021). Do FDI inflows to Eastern Europe and Central Asia respond to the business cycle? A sector level analysis. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 23, e00194.
Drazen, A. (2000). Political economy in macroeconomics. Princeton University Press Princeton, NJ.
Drazen, A. (2000). The political business cycle after 25 Years, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 15, 117-75.
Eghbali, A. Jarjarzadeh, A. Ghabishawi, A. & Abdollahi, F. (2017). Estimation of trade-political cycles (studied in Iran during 1978-95). Economic Development Policy, 5(2), 129-146. [In Persian]
Fair, R. (1978). The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President. Review of Economics and Statistics, 60:159-172.
Farber, D. A. (2017). Public choice theory and legal institutions. The Oxford Handbook of Law and Economics, 1, 181-201.
Frey, B.S. & Schneider, E. (1978). A politico-economics models of United Kingdom. The Economic Journal, 88(350), 243-253.
Gootjes, B., de Haan, J., & Jong-A-Pin, R. (2020). Do fiscal rules constrain political budget cycles?. Public Choice, 188(1), 1-30.
Gorgi, I. & Eghbali, A. (2013). Business cycles, principles and principles of estimation. Tehran. Sorena Publications. [In Persian]
Hatami, Abbas. (2010). Political business cycles: political arguments for economic instability. Bi-Quarterly Journal of Theoretical Policy Research. 7, 174-143. [In Persian]
Hibbs, D. (1977). Political parties and macroeconomic policy. American Political Science Review, 71 , 1467-1487.
Immergut, E. M. (1992). Health Politics-interests and Institutions in Western Europe. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Kramer, G. (1971). Short-term fluctuations in U.S. voting behavior, 1896-1964. American Political Science Review, 65, 131-143.
Lächler, U. (1978). The political business cycle: a complementary study. The Review of Economic Studies, 45(2), 369-375.
Lachler, U. (1982). On political business cycle with endogenous election dates. Journal of Public Economics, 17(1), 117-11.
Mandon, P., & Cazals, A. (2019). Political budget cycles: Manipulation by leaders versus manipulation by researchers? Evidence from a meta‐regression analysis. Journal of Economic Surveys, 33(1), 274-308.
Mazini, A.H. (2007). Investigating the phenomenon of electoral cycles in the Iranian economy (Case study of exchange rates). Journal of Commerce, 10(39), 215-236. [In Persian]
Mbaku, J. M. (1997). Institutions and reform in Africa: The public choice perspective. Greenwood Publishing Group.
McRae, D. (1977). A political model of the business cycle. Journal of Political Economy, 85, 239-263.
Mehregan, N. & Ezzati, M. (2007). The impact of economic variables on people's participation in Iranian elections, Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, 6 (1), 63-51. [In Persian]
Minford, P., & Peel, D. (1982). The political theory of the business cycle. European Economic Review, 17(2), 253-270.
Nordhaus, W. (1975). The Political Business Cycle. Review of Economic Studies, 42:169-190.
Nyakiamo, C. A. (2015). The effect of inflation rate on liquidity of manufacturing firms listed in Nairobi Securities Exchange, Doctoral dissertation, University of Nairobi.
Potrafke, N. (2010). The growth of public health expenditures in OECD countries: do government ideology and electoral motives matter? Journal of health economics, 29(6), 797-810.
Pourkazemi, M. H. Darwish, B. & Shahiki Tash, M.N. (2007). Political business cycles (case study of Iran). Journal of Quantitative Economics. 4 (4), 29-12. [In Persian]
Rafie Darani, H. & Shahnoushi, N. (2014). The effect of government size and good governance on human development using balanced geographical regression. Iranian Economic Research. (58)19, 181-153. [In Persian]
Ragot, X. (2005). The real effect of inflation in liquidity constrained models.
Rogoff, K., & A. Sibert. (1988). Elections and macroeconomic policy cycles. Review of Economic Studies, 55, l-16.
Sadeghi, A. & Tayebi, S.K. (2018). The effects of international sanctions and other factors affecting the inflation rate in Iran (1360-1393). Iranian Economic Research, 23 (74), 57-33. [In Persian]
Vortherms, A. (2019). Disaggregating China’s local political budget cycles: ‘‘Righting” the U, World Development 114, 95–109.
Schuknecht, L. (1996). Political business cycle in developing countries, Keklos, 49.
Schultz, K. (1995). The politics of political business cycle, British Journal of Political Science, 25(1), 99-79.
Shahabadi, A. Naziri, M. K. & Nilforoshan, N. (2012). The impact of electoral cycles on the public expenditure growth of selected developing and developed countries (1994-2010). Economic Modelling Research Quarterly, 9, 115-93. [In Persian]
Shahabadi, A. Nilforoshan, N. & Maryam, Kh. (2015). The impact of political cycles on the unemployment growth rate of selected developed and developing countries. Quarterly Journal of Planning and Budgeting. 20 (4), 3-30. [In Persian]
Shahbazi A. & Alireza, G. (2016). Business-political cycle: a case study of the governments of Seyyed Mohammad Khatami and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, The Approach of Islamic Revolution.10 (35), 87-112. [In Persian]
Shi, M., & Svensson, J. (2006). Political budget cycles: do they differ across countries and why? Journal of Public Economics, 90, 1367–1389.
Sidorkin, O., & Vorobyev, D. (2018). Political cycles and corruption in Russian regions, European Journal of Political Economy, 52, 55-74.
Taherpour, J. Salem, A. & Hemmat, R. (2020). Investigating the political cycles of development budgets in the Iranian economy. Study of Iranian Economic Issues, (1)7, 190-165. [In Persian]
Torkzade M. & khademi Moghadam A. (2009). Survey on relationship between political events and Tehran stock exchange performance, The Review of Financial and Accounting Studies, 14(2), 39-43.
Tufte, E.R. (1975). Determinants of the outcomes of midterm congressional elections. American Political Science Review, 69, 812-826.
Tufte, E.R. (1978). Political Control of the Economy, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University.
Tullock, G. (1959). Some problems of majority voting. Journal of Political Economy, 67(6), 571-579.
Winch, D.M. (1977). Political economy and the economic polity, The Canadian Journal of Economics, 10(4), 40-53.
Zhou, G. (2019). Inflation, liquidity, and long-run growth. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 23(2), 888-906.