رابطه بین مصرف حامل‌های مختلف انرژی، رشد اقتصادی، نابرابری و فقر در ایران

نویسندگان

استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه مازندران

چکیده

با توجه به عوارض ناشی از فقر و نابرابری در فرآیند رشد و توسعه اقتصادی، اجتماعی و فرهنگی کشورها، این مطالعه، به بررسی و تجزیه‌و‌تحلیل تأثیر مصرف حامل‌های مختلف انرژی بر پدیده فقر در ایران می‌پردازد. به همین منظور، از داده‌های سالیانه طی دوره زمانی 1363 تا 1389 و روش اقتصادسنجی معادلات هم‌زمان و تخمین‌زن‌های حداقل مربعات دومرحله­ای ([1]2SLS) و حداقل مربعات سه‌مرحله­ای ([2]3SLS) استفاده شده است. نتایج حاصل از تحقیق نشان‌دهنده این است که تأثیر حامل‌های مختلف انرژی بر نابرابری متفاوت است، به‌طوری که مصرف بنزین باعث افزایش نابرابری و مصرف گاز طبیعی و برق موجب کاهش نابرابری می‌شوند. تأثیر حامل‌های نفت کوره، نفت سفید و گازوییل بر نابرابری نیز با توجه به شاخص‌های مختلف نابرابری متفاوت است. از سوی دیگر، مصرف حامل‌های مختلف انرژی بر کاهش فقر در ایران طی دوره مورد بررسی مثبت است و مصرف گاز طبیعی و برق نیز بیشترین تأثیر را در کاهش فقر دارند، بنابراین، تأثیر مستقیم مصرف حامل‌های انرژی بر فقر تأیید می‌شود. در مجموع، با توجه به نتایج به‌دست آمده، تأثیر غیرمستقیم تمام حامل‌های انرژی بر فقر از طریق کاهش نابرابری را نمی‌توان تأیید کرد، اما با توجه به تأثیر مثبت مصرف تمام حامل‌های انرژی بر رشد اقتصادی، تأثیر غیرمستقیم آنها بر کاهش فقر از طریق افزایش رشد اقتصادی تأیید می‌شود.



[1]- Two Stage Least Square (2SLS)


[2]- Three Stage Least Square (3SLS)

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