Masoud Nili; Shahab Nafisi
Volume 7, Issue 25 , February 2006, Pages 1-22
Abstract
Human capital is an important ingredient of the new growth theory and, therefore its estimation has become a vital element for the growth regression models. In spite of this importance, an estimation of human capital has not yet been made for Iran. In this paper, the average years of education of the ...
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Human capital is an important ingredient of the new growth theory and, therefore its estimation has become a vital element for the growth regression models. In spite of this importance, an estimation of human capital has not yet been made for Iran. In this paper, the average years of education of the labor force of Iran, as a proxy for the human capital, has been estimated for the period 1966-2000. Because of using labor force instead of the population, the real number of students instead of enrolment rates, and taking into account the elements such as changes in the education system in 1966-2000, immigration, mortality, unemployment rates, the current research provides a more reliable result than those obtained by using conventional methods like Barro and Lee (2000).
Mahmood Khataei; Parvin Eghdami
Volume 7, Issue 25 , February 2006, Pages 23-46
Abstract
In this paper, using ARDL method, price elasticity of demand for gasoline is estimated for period 1980-2002. The elasticity is forecasted for he period 2003-2015. The results show that there is a negative and weak relation between real price gasoline (RPG) and gasoline demand. If the RPG rises one unit ...
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In this paper, using ARDL method, price elasticity of demand for gasoline is estimated for period 1980-2002. The elasticity is forecasted for he period 2003-2015. The results show that there is a negative and weak relation between real price gasoline (RPG) and gasoline demand. If the RPG rises one unit (200 Rials in nominal price), the gasoline demand would fall 18.5 units (1850 million liters) per year. It seems the reason foe such a low effect is the government polices to keep nominal price of gasoline (NPG) lower than international one. At such a low price, the demand elasticity is very low. In order to forecast the gasoline demand elasticity, three scenarios for NPG rises are considered. The results indicate that, by a 10% annual rise in the NPG, the gasoline demand elasticity would decrease. By a 30% annual rise in the NPG per year, gasoline demand elasticity would increase slowly reaching -0.50 in the last year by forecast. By a 50% annual rise in the NPG per year, gasoline demand elasticity would increase rapidly and it would reach to less than -1.
Saeed Moshiri; Habib Morovat
Volume 7, Issue 25 , February 2006, Pages 47-64
Abstract
The very complex movements in the stock prices are usually taken as random or stochastic, but they may be produced by a deterministic data generating process. Chaos refers to the nonlinear dynamic deterministic process that generates a series, which appears like random, but has a long memory. In the ...
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The very complex movements in the stock prices are usually taken as random or stochastic, but they may be produced by a deterministic data generating process. Chaos refers to the nonlinear dynamic deterministic process that generates a series, which appears like random, but has a long memory. In the Economics and Finance literature, stock prices are known to be random due to their complexities, and therefore being unpredictable. In this paper, we test for chaos in the stock prices using the data from the daily and weekly stock prices listed in the Tehran Exchange Market (TEPIX) in 1377-1382 (1998-2003). We apply three tests for chaos, namely; BDS, Lyaponov Exponent, and Neural Networks; to the residuals of linear (ARIMA) and nonlinear (GARCH) models. The BDS and the Neural Networks tests results show that there exists nonlinearity in the ARIMA residuals, but not in the GARCH residuals. However, the Lyaponove exponent test result is positive for all different dimensions indicating that the TEPIX is chaotic.
Ghahraman Abdoli
Volume 7, Issue 25 , February 2006, Pages 65-82
Abstract
In this paper, we apply partial adjustment model in order to study the effects of economic, demographic, insurance and other factors on targeted income of Iran is Social Security Organization for the period of 1961 – 2001. Our findings show some variables such as bureaucracy, costs of changes, ...
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In this paper, we apply partial adjustment model in order to study the effects of economic, demographic, insurance and other factors on targeted income of Iran is Social Security Organization for the period of 1961 – 2001. Our findings show some variables such as bureaucracy, costs of changes, habits, organizational and institutional constraints would delay reaching the targeted income. The estimated elasticties imply the variables such as minimum wages, number of insurers, and social security tax, would speed up reaching the targeted income. To increase the effects of these factors, an increase in labor intensity of product, capital, and output of economic sectors, are suggested.
Esfandiar Jahangard
Volume 7, Issue 25 , February 2006, Pages 83-107
Abstract
Technology has long been considered very important to contribute to economic growth through productivity improvement. The empirical studies indicate that the contribution of information technology(IT) to growth in developed and some developing countries over the second half of the 1990s has been ...
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Technology has long been considered very important to contribute to economic growth through productivity improvement. The empirical studies indicate that the contribution of information technology(IT) to growth in developed and some developing countries over the second half of the 1990s has been significant. There is still room for more investigation, specially in developing countries where the socio-economic infrastructure may not fully support the IT and economic growth relationship. This study uses an explicit production function to estimate the elasticity of IT factors in the Iranian manufacturing industry using the panel data method covering the period 2000-2001.
Reveal that IT has had a positive and significant effect on the production in the Iranian manufacturing industry. Our results suggest that an increase in IT expenditure beside improving complementary factors will eventually lead to higher labour productivity and growth in manufacturing industry.
Nematollah Akbari; Mozhgan moallemi
Volume 7, Issue 25 , February 2006, Pages 109-126
Abstract
On the theory, integration among countries that have common economic as well as political benefits, such as Persian Gulf Countries, may result in resource reallocation, an increase in products, trade and then economic welfare for members. This paper investigates the effect of trade integration on international ...
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On the theory, integration among countries that have common economic as well as political benefits, such as Persian Gulf Countries, may result in resource reallocation, an increase in products, trade and then economic welfare for members. This paper investigates the effect of trade integration on international trade flows among the members, using the trade gravity model.
The contiguity effect must be considered because of spatial dependence of the member countries. These countries have some common borders and therefore, spatial dependence among them affects their trade flows. Also, the paper addresses the question of extent the contiguity factor can influence the intra-trade flows of the members.
The estimation results show that the spatial dependence hypothesis is confirmed in the model. Moreover, the coefficient of integration variable reveals the fact that trade flows among Persian Gulf countries are below potential level. Therefore, these countries should remove trade obstacles to benefit from potential trade as well as comparative advantages.
Reza Mohseni
Volume 7, Issue 25 , February 2006, Pages 127-152
Abstract
This paper analyses the impact of reduction of tariff and non-tariff barriers on the imports of selected developing countries, utilizing dynamic panel data technique. The results indicate that Income and price elasticities are strongly statistically significant and reduction of import duties and ...
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This paper analyses the impact of reduction of tariff and non-tariff barriers on the imports of selected developing countries, utilizing dynamic panel data technique. The results indicate that Income and price elasticities are strongly statistically significant and reduction of import duties and increase of trade liberalization degree have a positive and significant effect on import growth. This effect increases import growth between 100 to 300 percent in all countries. Also, we test if the income elasticity of import demand changes with trade liberalization, and also if the price elasticity changes as the ability to substitute domestic production for imports becomes easier. The assumption is that trade liberalization has a significant impact not only on the growth of imports, but also on their sensitivity to income and price variations.
Javad Torkamani; Elham Jamali Moghadam
Volume 7, Issue 25 , February 2006, Pages 153-174
Abstract
This study attempts to investigate the effects of some government spending on poverty reduction in rural areas of Iran. Using time series data of 1971-2001, a system of equations including variables affecting poverty and productivity growth was considered. The system equations included poverty, total ...
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This study attempts to investigate the effects of some government spending on poverty reduction in rural areas of Iran. Using time series data of 1971-2001, a system of equations including variables affecting poverty and productivity growth was considered. The system equations included poverty, total factor productivity, nonagricultural employment, road, irrigation, power, wage and terms of trade. Using the simultaneity and diagonolity tests, the results showed three stage least square method is more suitable in this study. Marginal effects of government spending on poverty were calculated. Based on the results, government spending on rural and community development, roads agricultural research and development and irrigation, have the large impact on poverty reduction, respectively.
Mansour Zerra Nezhad; Sohrab Noroozani
Volume 7, Issue 25 , February 2006, Pages 175-190
Abstract
This paper deals with estimation and analysis of demand for labour in Khuzestan's manufacturing. First, we estimate the stock of capital applying exponential trend method. Employing Johansen’s approach, the research investigates the long-run effect of significant determinants on demand for labour ...
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This paper deals with estimation and analysis of demand for labour in Khuzestan's manufacturing. First, we estimate the stock of capital applying exponential trend method. Employing Johansen’s approach, the research investigates the long-run effect of significant determinants on demand for labour in Khuzestan’s manufacturing for the period 1966-2002. The findings indicate that in the long run, stock of capital and productivity of capital affect positively the demand for labour, while the average capital has negative effect. The result also shows that the error correction term is negative and less than one (-0.95) indicating that the speed of adjustment toward equilibrium in response to deviations from the long-run equilibrium is very high.
