Mohsen Mehrara; Hamid Abrishami; Seyed Mohammad Hadi Sobhanian
Volume 16, Issue 49 , February 2012, , Pages 177-204
Abstract
In this study we have dealt with the non-linear effects of economic growth on the energy consumption growth in countries depending on petroleum revenues (OPEC member countries)as well as the BRIC countries. For this end, the panel data from 1980 to 2006 for both groups of above-mentioned countries was ...
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In this study we have dealt with the non-linear effects of economic growth on the energy consumption growth in countries depending on petroleum revenues (OPEC member countries)as well as the BRIC countries. For this end, the panel data from 1980 to 2006 for both groups of above-mentioned countries was employed and analyzed on the basis of threshold error correction model. The results indicate that in both group of countries, the effects of economic growth are non-linear so that the high economic growth rates (the economic growth rates more than threshold level of 0.01 for OPEC and 0.09 for BRIC) has increased the energy consumption growth with more severity. Of course, the effects of economic growth on the energy consumption growth in BRIC member countries are by far higher. Therefore, although an economic growth rate higher than threshold level may lead to environmental pollution in the OPEC member countries, but these countries should have less anxiety about the detrimental environmental effects of their economic growth compared to the BRIC countries.
Hamid Abrishami; Ali Moeini; Mohsen Mehrara; Mehdi Ahrari; Fatemeh Soleymani Kia
Volume 12, Issue 36 , October 2008, , Pages 58-37
Abstract
In this paper, we use GMDH neural network based on Genetic Algorithm to model and forecast the price of gasoline using two approaches; Deductive Method and Technical Analysis. The results of deductive method indicate that the accuracy of prediction could reach up to 96% and in technical analysis could ...
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In this paper, we use GMDH neural network based on Genetic Algorithm to model and forecast the price of gasoline using two approaches; Deductive Method and Technical Analysis. The results of deductive method indicate that the accuracy of prediction could reach up to 96% and in technical analysis could reach up to 99%. Furthermore the comparison reveals that the GMDH neural networks model consistently outperforms the regression model used in this study.
Hamid Abrishami; Reza Mohseni
Volume 4, Issue 13 , February 2003, , Pages 1-32
Abstract
International trade theory argues that developing countries benefit from primary specialization because of the existence of comparative advantages and the utilization of the countries relative abundant factors. But at the same time, international specialization implies a high commodity ...
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International trade theory argues that developing countries benefit from primary specialization because of the existence of comparative advantages and the utilization of the countries relative abundant factors. But at the same time, international specialization implies a high commodity dependency which were criticized by some development economists. It is believed that international specialization of commodity implies a high economic dependency to export earnings. However, since export commodity prices were not predictable then high instability in prices caused export earnings instability. Prices or earnings variability induce macroeconomic fluctuations mainly defined as the national income instability.
This article analyzes the relationship between oil export earnings instability and economic growth in IRAN.
With regards to instability concept, macroeconomic consequences can be avoided and this problem can also be transmitted to other economic sectors.This article follows Feder's(1982) growth model and uses Johansen's (1988) cointegration system approach to analyze the effects of export earnings instability.Results show that export earnings instability does not affect the gross domestic product(GDP) in the long run, but it does effect it in the short run.
Hamid Abrishami; Ali Moeini; Mahdi Ahrari
Volume 4, Issue 10 , April 2002, , Pages 105-123
Abstract
In recent years, the theories of nonlinear systems in general and chaotic systems in particular have received a great deal of attention in the economic research.Based on the assumption that at least part of the underling process is nonlinear, chaos analysis evaluates whether that process in deterministic.In ...
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In recent years, the theories of nonlinear systems in general and chaotic systems in particular have received a great deal of attention in the economic research.Based on the assumption that at least part of the underling process is nonlinear, chaos analysis evaluates whether that process in deterministic.In this research, first by applying Correlation Dimension (CD) and Largest Lyapunov Exponent (LLE), the evidence of chaos in oil future prices (1996-99) appeared to be true. Then the logestic map is explained and finally the Largest Lyapunov Exponent (LLE) estimate of the first sectiona is compared with the calculated LLE under the logistic function.
Hamid Abrishami; Mohsen Mehr Ara
Volume 3, 9(Autumn and Winter ) , October 2001, , Pages 43-88
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to discern the interaction between nominal and real sectors in the context of an oil exporting economy such as Iran. The methodology uses a modeling strategy named structural VECM which provides a practical approach to incorporating long - run structural relationships, ...
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The purpose of this study is to discern the interaction between nominal and real sectors in the context of an oil exporting economy such as Iran. The methodology uses a modeling strategy named structural VECM which provides a practical approach to incorporating long - run structural relationships, suggested by economic theory in an structural VAR model. The strategy is applied in the construction of a small quarterly macro econometric model of Iran estimated over the period 1350 QI - 1376 Q4 (1971Q1- 1997Q4) in eight core variables: output, import, price, money, exchange rate, wage, productivity and premium. Our results suggest that the usefulness of the IS/LM model to interpret economic effectuations in Iran is limited and provide support to what McCallum (1989) calls, "Weak" version of equilibrium (real) business Cycles models.
