Authors

• Hamid Abrishami ¹
• Ali Moeini ²
• Mohsen Mehrara ³
• Mehdi Ahrari ⁴
• Fatemeh Soleymani Kia ⁵

¹ Professor, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran

² Associate Professor, Faculty of Engineering, University of Tehran

³ Assistant Professor, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran

⁴ Research Assistant, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran

⁵ M A in Energy Economics, University of Tehran

Abstract

In this paper, we use GMDH neural network based on Genetic Algorithm to model and forecast the price of gasoline using two approaches; Deductive Method and Technical Analysis. The results of deductive method indicate that the accuracy of prediction could reach up to 96% and in technical analysis could reach up to 99%. Furthermore the comparison reveals that the GMDH neural networks model consistently outperforms the regression model used in this study. 

Keywords

• Gasoline Price
• GMDH neural network
• Deductive Method
• Technical analysis
• Forecasting