Research Paper
Hamid Abrishami; Reza Mohseni
Volume 4, Issue 13 , February 2003, Pages 1-32
Abstract
International trade theory argues that developing countries benefit from primary specialization because of the existence of comparative advantages and the utilization of the countries relative abundant factors. But at the same time, international specialization implies a high commodity ...
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International trade theory argues that developing countries benefit from primary specialization because of the existence of comparative advantages and the utilization of the countries relative abundant factors. But at the same time, international specialization implies a high commodity dependency which were criticized by some development economists. It is believed that international specialization of commodity implies a high economic dependency to export earnings. However, since export commodity prices were not predictable then high instability in prices caused export earnings instability. Prices or earnings variability induce macroeconomic fluctuations mainly defined as the national income instability.
This article analyzes the relationship between oil export earnings instability and economic growth in IRAN.
With regards to instability concept, macroeconomic consequences can be avoided and this problem can also be transmitted to other economic sectors.This article follows Feder's(1982) growth model and uses Johansen's (1988) cointegration system approach to analyze the effects of export earnings instability.Results show that export earnings instability does not affect the gross domestic product(GDP) in the long run, but it does effect it in the short run.
Research Paper
Nooraldin Sharify; Mohammad Alizadeh
Volume 4, Issue 13 , February 2003, Pages 33-56
Abstract
Numerous studies using different models have carried out to investigate the effects of different kinds of government expenditure on economic variables. This paper, study the effects of government expenditures on the economic variables in Golestan Province using the social accounting matrix ...
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Numerous studies using different models have carried out to investigate the effects of different kinds of government expenditure on economic variables. This paper, study the effects of government expenditures on the economic variables in Golestan Province using the social accounting matrix (SAM). To this end, using the multipliers analysis of the social accounting matrix for the year 1994,we examined the effects of government current and development expenditures on products, value added and employment in different economic sectors of the region.
One of the advantages of this procedure is the possibility of studying the effects of government expenditures on macroeconomic variables in the region by disagregating them into several sectors. The results indicate that government expenditures on public services and machinary let to more economic activities in the region in comparison with. other sectors. In addition, current expenditures caused more value added in comparison with the government investment in infrastructure in the region.
Research Paper
Hamid Toufighi; Azadeh Mehrabian
Volume 4, Issue 13 , February 2003, Pages 57-74
Abstract
In the analysis of macroeconomic problems and eonomic policies, the survey of import demand function is very important and it has a key role in efficiency and effectiveness of trade policies.
Imports and factors affecting it, are playing an important role in the trade balance of each ...
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In the analysis of macroeconomic problems and eonomic policies, the survey of import demand function is very important and it has a key role in efficiency and effectiveness of trade policies.
Imports and factors affecting it, are playing an important role in the trade balance of each country.
This paper presents a new method for estimation of import demand function for Iran during 1958-1998. For empirical test, we use vector auto correlation that shows import, depends positively on oil revenues, GDP without oil and at the same time negatively affects relative prices (The ratio of imported price to domestic price). In addition, we discussed various shocks and their immediate effects on different variables through application of impulse response and variance decomposition and tried to show the effect of changes on variables, and on import demand accordingly.
Research Paper
Karim Azarbaijani; seyed komail tayebi; Hossein Karimi Hosnijeh
Volume 4, Issue 13 , February 2003, Pages 75-107
Abstract
Today, phenomenon like globalization, regionalism and trade blocks' are the basic issues which bring many positive consequences to the world economy. Among all, it would impress foreign transactions, increase the amount of trade flows, achieve the competitive capability and improve it, ...
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Today, phenomenon like globalization, regionalism and trade blocks' are the basic issues which bring many positive consequences to the world economy. Among all, it would impress foreign transactions, increase the amount of trade flows, achieve the competitive capability and improve it, removes the tarrif and non-tarrif barriers and acquiring the binding conditions for a presence in the "World Free Trade".
Regionalism and trade blocks are one of the ways that developing countries can adopt to collate the globalization process. To acknowledge their own abilities or, to settle the commercial and economic disputes in their regions by using their comparative advantages, and getting the inherent readiness to merge to the world economywith a more extensive process.
In this paper, in addition to review the process of globalization, regionalism and their effects on domestic and international economies, it also recalling some literatures and evidences on this basis and examines the most proper trade arrangements and economic convergence for the selected Middle East countries by utilizing the "Gravity Model" and it's estimation on "Panel Data" method.
Gravity models with Panel Data method, on the basis of using variables such as (GDP), economic structure, population, geographic situation, cultural contributions and per capita income.
The results show that economic integration amongECO and D-8 countries could increase the value of trade and create opportunities for more exports and imports.
GDP has a positive effect on trade while geographical distance has a negative sign and shows that it has no effect on Iranian's bilateral trade and there is no sigii of trade bias.
Research Paper
seyed komail tayebi; Khadije Nasrollahi
Volume 4, Issue 13 , February 2003, Pages 109-133
Abstract
With the view of the shortcoming of purchasing power parity (PPP)approach in interpreting the behavior of LRER in many Developing Countries in last decades, new literature, emphasized on the role of fundamental variables in determination of LRER. These factors from both sides of the supply ...
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With the view of the shortcoming of purchasing power parity (PPP)approach in interpreting the behavior of LRER in many Developing Countries in last decades, new literature, emphasized on the role of fundamental variables in determination of LRER. These factors from both sides of the supply and demand of the economy structure, includes government fiscal policies, international financial assessment, changes in productivity growth, fluctuation of terms of trade and trade policies are the fundamental variables in this regard.
In the case of Iran, while some studies concentrate on determinants of LRER, some others which is in relation with PPP. Approach has concluded that results depend on the period of the study, the types of data and the approach of test.
In this study, total productivity of factors (TPF) of production, the ratio current expenditures to development expenditures used as an index of government fiscal policy, domestic terms of trade, ratio of Central Bank exchange reserves to the base money and an index of import-intensive of investment have taken into account as the determinants of the LRER in Iran. The long-run effects of these variables on the behavior of LRER have been determined by the use of economic methods and then have been analyzed.
In addition, with the attention to the structure of the exchange market in Iran, there have been at least five real exchange rates in the form of real effective formal exchange rate, real effective parallel exchange rate, real effective export exchange rate, real effective recievement exchange rate and real effective payment exchange rate which investigated respectively. Hence, variety of measures should be calculated and interpreted to permint crosschecks in the study. The research illustrate that the direction of the effects of each of these variables depend on which type of real exchange rate has been used. However, another result is that, in the short-run diseqilibrium in all of the cases of real exchange rate would be eliminated except that of parallel market, because of the role of expectation in this market.
Research Paper
Mostafa Salimifar; Masoud Ghavi
Volume 4, Issue 13 , February 2003, Pages 135-170
Abstract
This paper has been extracted from a research project entitled: " A Survey of the Effects of Bank' Credits on Private Investment in Iran and Explanation of Its reasons." In order to do this, we studied the, neoclassics theories of investment. Then, keeping in mind the particular conditions ...
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This paper has been extracted from a research project entitled: " A Survey of the Effects of Bank' Credits on Private Investment in Iran and Explanation of Its reasons." In order to do this, we studied the, neoclassics theories of investment. Then, keeping in mind the particular conditions of the country an appropraite model for private investment of Iran have designed in which, the investment is a function of governmental investment, gross national product(GDP), inflation rate and banks credits to private sector.
The results (from the estimation of the model) indicated that the credits have had a significant effect on the private investment during the period under study. Monetary and credit policies, structural factors and substitution of money and capital are the main reasons of the positive relationship.
