Seyed Komail Tayebi; Khadijeh Nasrollahi; Mehdi Yazdani; Seyed Hassan Malekhosseini
Abstract
The exchange rate pass-through explains the relationship between changes in national currency and foreign trade of a country, while the responsiveness of trade to the currency changes depends on the perfect or imperfect degree of pass-through.
The objective of this study is to analyze the effect of ...
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The exchange rate pass-through explains the relationship between changes in national currency and foreign trade of a country, while the responsiveness of trade to the currency changes depends on the perfect or imperfect degree of pass-through.
The objective of this study is to analyze the effect of exchange rate pass-through on inflation in Iran as one of the main oil-exporting countries. To this end, we have specified a Structural Vector Auto-Regressive (SVAR) model including macroeconomic variables such as oil revenues, output gap, free market exchange rate, import prices, producer prices, consumer prices and money supply. To estimate the model, we have used quarterly data over the period 1991:1 - 2012:4.
Empirical results of the model estimation, which are in forms of impulse response functions and variance decomposition, have shown that although the degree of exchange rate pass-through to the price indices has been incomplete, changes in the exchange rate have led to fluctuations in the prices explaining partly Iran’s inflationary situation during the period under consideration. It also reveals the fact that a higher share of imported inflation implies the economy’s dependence on imports.
Mahdi Taghavi; Abbas Shakeri; Teimour Mohammadi; Ali Akbar Sadeqi
Abstract
This paper investigates the effects of income per capita, financial development and openness on energy intensity for MENA selected countries for the period of 1980 - 2011 applying the panel smooth transition regression model. The linearity test results indicate strongly nonlinear relationship among variables ...
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This paper investigates the effects of income per capita, financial development and openness on energy intensity for MENA selected countries for the period of 1980 - 2011 applying the panel smooth transition regression model. The linearity test results indicate strongly nonlinear relationship among variables under consideration. The optimum nonlinear model includes one transition function and one threshold parameter that represents a two-regime model. The results from the PSTR model indicated that the slope parameter of the transition function is equal to 19.99 and the location of regime switching is 9254.8 dollars. Also, the estimated coefficients of the variables in both regimes indicated that per capita income leads to an increase in the energy intensity. Openness in the second regime leads to a decrease, and financial development leads to a rise in energy intensity.
Karim Eslamloueyan; Sara Mehralian
Volume 20, Issue 65 , February 2016, , Pages 1-36
Abstract
Using a Markov Jumping Linear Quadratic (MJLQ) method, this paper examines the impact of financial uncertainty on monetary policy in Iran in the context of a new Keynesian model. This model allows us to study the impact of financial uncertainty on inflation and output gap. We allow the economy to switch ...
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Using a Markov Jumping Linear Quadratic (MJLQ) method, this paper examines the impact of financial uncertainty on monetary policy in Iran in the context of a new Keynesian model. This model allows us to study the impact of financial uncertainty on inflation and output gap. We allow the economy to switch between normal and abnormal states. Our model is estimated in two stages. We first estimate the parameters of our normal model by using maximum likelihood method. In the next stage, we use the parameters obtained in the first stage and Apply Metropolis-Hastings random walk method to estimate the parameters of our MJLQ model. This allows to investigate the reaction of key variables to shocks in inflation, output gap and interest spread. We find out that the reaction of monetary policy to these three shocks under certainty case in the abnormal time model is stronger than those under uncertainty case. This finding might have important policy implication for authorities when conducting monetary policy in the presence of financial frictions.
Zahra Dehghan Shabani; Ebrahim Hadian; Faezeh Nasirzadeh
Abstract
Economic theory has emphasized the important role of human capital on national and regional economic growth. The present study aimed to analyze the effect of the composition of human capital on economic growth in Iranian provinces. We estimated a Spatial Dynamic Panel Data model by using Generalized ...
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Economic theory has emphasized the important role of human capital on national and regional economic growth. The present study aimed to analyze the effect of the composition of human capital on economic growth in Iranian provinces. We estimated a Spatial Dynamic Panel Data model by using Generalized Method of Moments technique for 28 Iranian provinces over the period 2001-2011.
The results indicated that tertiary and primary and secondary education had positive and significant effects on economic growth. Also, the human capital structure had an inverse-U-shape effect on economic growth. In other words, growth is increasing in the human capital structure at low levels of the human capital structure, but the relation turns negative once the human capital structure exceeds a critical value.
Abolghasem Mahdavi Mazdeh; Mohammad Hossein Memarian; Mostafa Mohebi Majd
Abstract
There have been many conflicting studies on income inequality and life expectancy in the past four decades. It seems that many of these studies are affected by a statistical artifact which could lead to measurement error. In this paper, after correcting the statistical artifact, we examine the relationship ...
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There have been many conflicting studies on income inequality and life expectancy in the past four decades. It seems that many of these studies are affected by a statistical artifact which could lead to measurement error. In this paper, after correcting the statistical artifact, we examine the relationship between Gini coefficient (as an index for income inequality) and life expectancy (as an index for public health). To this end, this study uses panel data with random effects for 19 countries (including Iran) over the period 2004 -2012. After correcting the statistical artifact, the results did not suggest any particular association between income inequality and life expectancy.
Firooz Tofigh
Abstract
In physical input-output tables (PIOTS), the flows of products, instead of being expressed in monetary terms, are represented by physical measures (weight, time). Furthermore, these tables along with the traditional inter-industry transactions of monetary tables (MIOT), contain the flows between the ...
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In physical input-output tables (PIOTS), the flows of products, instead of being expressed in monetary terms, are represented by physical measures (weight, time). Furthermore, these tables along with the traditional inter-industry transactions of monetary tables (MIOT), contain the flows between the economy and the natural environment. Thus, it is assumed that the use of natural resources by the economic system and return of the waste to the environment should be included in the process because the economy "depletes the environment beyond its regenerative capacity and pollutes it beyond its absorptive capacity." Traditional economics considers the economy as an isolated or closed system which is "a circular flow of exchange between firms and households in which neither matter nor energy enters or exits." It has no relation with its environment, while in fact it is an open subsystem of the earth's ecosystem. This standard vision is definitely useful for analyzing exchange, price formation, and income determination, but quite useless for studying the relation of the economy to the environment. The rationale behind material input-output tables, is based on the above observations. In this article after briefly examining this line of reasoning, the experience of two forerunning countries in the construction of material supply, use and input-output tables - Germany and Denmark - is presented. In explaining the subject, we have also benefited from several UN publications on System of Environmental Economic Accounting. In countries like Iran, with fragile environmental resources, this type of data and analysis, seems to be very promising.
Nasser Khiabani
Abstract
This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model (DGEMI) for evaluating energy policies in Iran’s economy. DGEMI provides a detailed multisector framework for analyzing economic transition, removal of energy subsidy, and technological change policies. The results show that eliminating ...
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This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model (DGEMI) for evaluating energy policies in Iran’s economy. DGEMI provides a detailed multisector framework for analyzing economic transition, removal of energy subsidy, and technological change policies. The results show that eliminating energy subsidies (once- for -all or gradually) in the absence of technological progress is in itself insufficient to stimulate the investment and economic growth. Although the energy intensity along with this policy declines over time, its decline can not be attributed to the energy efficiency, since the economy falls into the lower level of new steady state after removing the energy subsidies. On the other hand, the combination of eliminating energy subsidies and technological progress policies provide a strong growth stimulus accompanied by a pronounced increase in productive efficiency and a decline in intensive energy.
mohammad omidinezhad; Teimour Mohammadi; Mahmood Khataei
Abstract
Based on Basel II Accord, loans paid to individuals and SMEs are included in retail portfolio and banks are permitted to choose standardized approach or internal rating based approach for calculating their credit risk capital requirements. In the case of IRB Implementation, banks should group their retail ...
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Based on Basel II Accord, loans paid to individuals and SMEs are included in retail portfolio and banks are permitted to choose standardized approach or internal rating based approach for calculating their credit risk capital requirements. In the case of IRB Implementation, banks should group their retail loans into homogenous risk pools. Particularly, IRB capital requirement function is related to probability of default (PD) and Loss given default (LGD) for each borrower. Mathematically, capital requirement function is concave in PD for a given LGD and for a widespread interval. As a result of capital requirement function concavity, banks could lower their overall capital requirement through classification of their loans into more homogenous risk pools. In this study, loans paid to individual retail customers of 1343 for one of the private banks during 1391-1392 have been classified into homogenous risk pools by the Classification and Regression Trees (CART) algorithm. As we go from level 0 to level 5 in customers' segmentation scheme, capital required for bank experiences a decline of 0.44%.
Teimour Mohammadi; Atefeh Taklif; Sahel Zamani
Abstract
In this article, we introduce a model for forecasting the daily gas prices by the use of wavelet transform and neural networks. In this hybrid model, the discrete Daubechies wavelet transform is applied to decompose the gas prices series into approximation series and details series (DS). The new series ...
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In this article, we introduce a model for forecasting the daily gas prices by the use of wavelet transform and neural networks. In this hybrid model, the discrete Daubechies wavelet transform is applied to decompose the gas prices series into approximation series and details series (DS). The new series are used as inputs to the ANN model to forecast Henry Hub natural gas prices. The relative performance of the hybrid model and neural network model shows that WANN model provides more accurate naturel gas price forecast compared to the individual ANN model. Diebold-Mariano test confirms this result.
Hamid Sepehrdoust; Mahsa Barooti
Abstract
One of the main policies for solving the problem of economic growth obstacles and eliminating the sole dependence of the economy on oil revenues is to improve the country's tax system performance. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the factors affecting the tax system performance in ...
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One of the main policies for solving the problem of economic growth obstacles and eliminating the sole dependence of the economy on oil revenues is to improve the country's tax system performance. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the factors affecting the tax system performance in Iranian economy with special reference to Tanzi inflation effect. In order to achieve the research objectives, an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) was used to estimate the short-term as well as long-term effects of macroeconomic variables on tax system performance for the period 1984-2014, emphasizing on the Tanzi inflation effect as substantial factor. The results showed that in the long term and short term, the inflation rate and agriculture sector's value added have negative significant effects, while human development indicator, industry and service sector's value added and government's expenditures have positive significant effects on tax system performance in Iran during the period of the study.Therefore,effective measures are required to be adopted for the extension of tax bases in the industry as well as service sectors on the one hand, and timely collection of tax revenues through shortening the courses of tax collection is also recommended on the other. These steps along with removal of unnecessary tax exemptions would certainly cause strengthening the efficiency level of tax system performance in the Iranian economy.
Ebad Teimouri; Mohsen Renani; Abdolhamid Moarefi Mohammadi
Abstract
The starting point of economic analyses undoubtedly is homo economicus, whose fundamental characteristic is rationality. In recent decades, the notion of rationality has been the subject of debates in social sciences, particularly economics. Conventional economists often employ the assumption of rationality ...
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The starting point of economic analyses undoubtedly is homo economicus, whose fundamental characteristic is rationality. In recent decades, the notion of rationality has been the subject of debates in social sciences, particularly economics. Conventional economists often employ the assumption of rationality in the sense that economic agents are aware of all potential consequences and capable of logical and consistent choices that maximize utility. However, critics of economic rationality argue that these agents sometimes exhibit irrational behaviors and are not always aware of all the possible consequences of their choices. Many of the behavioral economists and psychologists maintain that economic agents do not reason very well, that these agents often do not know what is good for them and that they behave in odd, non-reasoning, inconsistent ways, because of their limited mental capabilities and environmental conditions. In this article, with a comparative approach, the rational choice theory and criticisms of behavioral economics to it are analyzed. Moreover, new findings of brain function and experimental economics are examined to a deeper understanding of economic rationality and assessment its compliance with human behavior and mental abilities. The results show that although it can be acknowledged that people with regards to their limitations and capabilities of the brain do not follow perfect rationality in all everyday decisions and choices, the existence of pervasive irrational behavior can’t be recognized in all aspects of human life and people probably act more rational than what behavioral economics assumes.
Elaheh Asadi Mehmandosti; Fatemeh Bazzazan; Mir Hossein Mousavi
Abstract
The main aim of this paper is to estimate updated and accurate measurement of total factor productivity (TFP), price and substitution elasticities in the manufacturing sector in Iran over the period 1974-2013 by using a locally flexible normalized quadratic (NQ) functional form. Substitution elasticities ...
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The main aim of this paper is to estimate updated and accurate measurement of total factor productivity (TFP), price and substitution elasticities in the manufacturing sector in Iran over the period 1974-2013 by using a locally flexible normalized quadratic (NQ) functional form. Substitution elasticities indices are estimated in two scenarios: the first, interfactor substitution index and the second, interfuel substitution index. Empirical results show that the average TFP indices are 0.32% and 0.62% in the first and second scenario respectively. The results also show that all inputs based on the cost elasticities are normal goods, and the Allen own-elasticities of substitution for the different inputs are negative in the both scenarios. Moreover, the Morishima interfactor and interfuel elasticities of substitution are positive and less than one, except in one case. The results highlight the fact that the substitution between different inputs and fuels has been quite restricted.
Teimour Mohammadi; Abdolsadeh Neisi; Mahnoush Abdollahmilani; Sahar Havaj
Abstract
In this paper, the stochastic behavior of Tehran stock exchange return index (TEDPIX) is examined by using unobserved component Markov switching model (UC-MS) during the period 3/27/2010 - 8/3/2015. In this model, stock returns are decomposed into two components; permanent and transitory components. ...
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In this paper, the stochastic behavior of Tehran stock exchange return index (TEDPIX) is examined by using unobserved component Markov switching model (UC-MS) during the period 3/27/2010 - 8/3/2015. In this model, stock returns are decomposed into two components; permanent and transitory components. The transitory component has three-state Markov switching heteroskedasticity (low, medium, and high). Results show that UC-MS model is appropriate for this data. Low value of RCM criteria implies that model can successfully distinguish between regimes from behavior of data. The sum of the autoregressive coefficients in temporary component indicates that 40 percent of current value of temporary component is explained by its 2-period lagged values. The duration of high-variance regimes for transitory component are short-lived and revert to normal levels quickly. The presidential election has significant effect on being in the third regime.
Mahnoush Abdollah Milani; Javid Bahrami; Hossein Tavakolian; Narges Akbarpur
Abstract
The aim of this study is to estimate the amount of underground economy as well as to determine the effect of tax policy on it in Iran. For this purpose, a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model is developed incorporating the underground economy. Quarterly data for 1360-1393 in Iran are used ...
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The aim of this study is to estimate the amount of underground economy as well as to determine the effect of tax policy on it in Iran. For this purpose, a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model is developed incorporating the underground economy. Quarterly data for 1360-1393 in Iran are used for estimation. The results show that on the average 23 percent of household consumption during the examined period is from underground goods, and about 17 percent of these goods are imported into the country through underground import or smuggling. Real average amount of smuggling and underground production in Iran during the considered period is estimated as 29023 and 141702.5 billion Rials, respectively. In addition, the results show that the average share of underground employment in total employment over the period is about 18 percent. The average tax evasion of consumption tax, import tax and wage tax is estimated about 17.8 percent of average government tax revenue during this period. Comparing the effects of four different tax shocks on underground economy also shows that the profit tax shock has the largest effect on underground economy, and after that is import tax shock. The effects of tax shocks show that the severity and duration of the impact of tax shocks on underground production is more than that of the formal economy.
Naser Khiabani; ehsan mohammadian nikpey
Abstract
This study examines the impact of a negative shock-attributed to a systemic risk-on the industrial indexes of the Tehran stock market using daily data form 21 January, 2008 to 22 September, 2017. Using a Vector Autoregressive for Value at Risk (VAR-VaR) and a quantile Impulse-response function that was ...
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This study examines the impact of a negative shock-attributed to a systemic risk-on the industrial indexes of the Tehran stock market using daily data form 21 January, 2008 to 22 September, 2017. Using a Vector Autoregressive for Value at Risk (VAR-VaR) and a quantile Impulse-response function that was newly proposed by White et al 2015, we focus on the tail interdependence between industrial index returns (financial institutions) and the market shock index and show how each industrial stock risks contemporaneously and dynamically response to systemic market shocks. Our finding show that there is a significant volatility spillover from a systemic shock to financial institutions in Tehran stock market. However as expected the magnitude of its impact is not the same for all industrial index risks. For examples, the impact of its shock on the bank and metal industrial volatilities is more sizable compared to its impact on the others. And finally, the stock market index has a strong and persistence tail dependency with the chemical and petroleum product industries.
reza talebloo; Abas Shakeri; milad rahmaniani
Abstract
Easley and O'Hara (1992) introduce Probability of Informed Trading (PIN) concept to measure the degree of asymmetric information in market. Since then there has been a lot of debate on the accuracy of the calculations for PIN. Lin and Ke (2011) by using Factorization method and Yan and Zhang (2012) using ...
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Easley and O'Hara (1992) introduce Probability of Informed Trading (PIN) concept to measure the degree of asymmetric information in market. Since then there has been a lot of debate on the accuracy of the calculations for PIN. Lin and Ke (2011) by using Factorization method and Yan and Zhang (2012) using Grid-Search based methods introduced other ways to improve the accuracy of the measurement. In this paper, we compare four different methods of PIN calculation for 206 selected companies for listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). We used maximum likelihood method to estimate parameters. The results show that the average of PIN for LK methodology is 0.242 and for EHO is 0.281 in our sample. Moreover, clustering Approach is faster which make it more suitable for practical applications in the real market. Comparison of standard deviation of different methods shows that Grid Search approach is more stable with lower variations in the results.
Sepideh Ohadi Esfahani; SeyedKomail Tayebi Tayebi; Iraj Kazemi
Abstract
In recent years, most studies in the field of technology and trade have focused on the critical importance of technological change in explaining international trade patterns. Technological innovation is not taking place in all countries and it does not spread to all countries at the same time, therefore ...
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In recent years, most studies in the field of technology and trade have focused on the critical importance of technological change in explaining international trade patterns. Technological innovation is not taking place in all countries and it does not spread to all countries at the same time, therefore technological distance would exist among countries.This paper has explained the effect of technological distance on Iran’s trade relations, specifying a semi-parametric gravity model over 1995-2015. As expected, the estimation results of semi-parametric gravity model show that the effect of GDP on bilateral trade relations between Iran and each of the selected trading partners is positive and significant. The population of the exporter has negative impact while the importer’s population has positive effect on bilateral trade. Our empirical results indicate that the relationship between technological distance and bilateral trade is nonparametric, implying a general effect of technology on Iran’s bilateral trade relations. More clearly, in some ranges of the technological distance a negative effect appears on trade relations, while in other fractions of the relevant distance, the impact is positive, leading to an increase in bilateral trade relations between Iran and its trading partners.
Morteza Chini Chian
Volume 1, Issue 1 , April 1995, , Pages 3-26
Alireza Rahimi Boroujerdi
Volume 2, 4&5(Spring and Summer) , April 2000, , Pages 5-40
Abstract
According to the theory of macroeconomics, achieving stable equilibrium in economy is possible when exchange rate regimes are consistent with the financial and monetary policies. Besides, regulating the real rate of exchange and its relation to a known exchange rate regime, which corresponds to economic ...
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According to the theory of macroeconomics, achieving stable equilibrium in economy is possible when exchange rate regimes are consistent with the financial and monetary policies. Besides, regulating the real rate of exchange and its relation to a known exchange rate regime, which corresponds to economic conditions, is very important to create the equilibrium This study tries to forecast an exchange rate which can guarantee the growth of non-oil exports, by emphasizing on making exchange rate regime consistent with the exchange rate on the one hand and making financial and monetary policies harmonious with devaluation of Rial on the other hand. To this end, we have employed a VAR model to determine an appropriate exchange rate to forecast the behavior of exchange rate and other related variables over 1996-2000 (1375-79) period. In this framework, a model is worked out to can simultaneously specify the effects of financial policies, liquidity growth, inflation, and devaluation of Rial on non-oil exports within a five-year period. For this purpose, a model is presented with five endogenous and four exogenous variables.
The results show that an increase in inflation cancels out the positive effects of devaluation on non-oil exports. Rial devaluation will boost the growth of non-oil exports if it is accompanied by appropriate financial policies. Therefore, if the control of government expenditures is hinged with the devaluation of Rial, it may lead to a reduction in the growth of liquidity and inflation as well as to the growth of non-oil exports.
Energy Economy
Saeed Rasekhi; Sara Ghanbartabar
Abstract
The utilization of natural resources, particularly energy, is essential for economic well-being. However, the increasing consumption of economic resources raises concerns about sustainable development. This study aimed to investigate the dynamic decoupling of economic growth, energy consumption, and ...
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The utilization of natural resources, particularly energy, is essential for economic well-being. However, the increasing consumption of economic resources raises concerns about sustainable development. This study aimed to investigate the dynamic decoupling of economic growth, energy consumption, and pollution in Iran from 2000 to 2020, employing the method proposed by Tapio (2005) and factor analysis on three levels of energy consumption (i.e., primary, final, and useful). The findings revealed that economic growth is often associated with negative decoupling, with this negative decoupling being more pronounced in useful and final energies compared to primary energy. Decomposing energy consumption further confirmed negative decoupling in various energy components. Additionally, the study confirmed weak decoupling between energy consumption and pollution (CO2 emissions), with stronger negative decoupling observed at lower energy levels. Furthermore, the decoupling of economic growth and pollution closely mirrors the decoupling of economic growth and energy consumption. The negative decoupling can be attributed to the inefficiency in energy consumption, limited access to new technologies, and the lack of appropriate structures due to the absence of a specific strategy for sustainable development. The research recommends the prioritization of energy efficiency across different energy levels as well as the investment in infrastructure and energy technology.IntroductionEconomic growth is intricately linked to the consumption of natural resources, with these scarce and costly resources serving as the primary catalyst for the development and acceleration of economic growth process in modern societies (Song et al., 2019; Song et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2018). Meanwhile, the production and consumption of energy resources are associated with significant social costs and diminished welfare (Feng et al., 2020a; Feng et al., 2020b; Li et al., 2018; Rjoub et al., 2021; Wang et al., 2020). The world grapples with the challenge of balancing economic development and energy consumption (Bradshaw, 2010). Despite the looming threat of global warming, many countries, particularly developing nations, have prioritized economic development over environmental conservation (Shah et al., 2016). Consequently, decoupling energy consumption from economic growth is widely recognized as a significant achievement in the global effort to combat climate change and mitigate adverse environmental effects. The experience of developed countries instill hope for overcoming resource scarcity and growth limitations, as well as fostering green and sustainable economic growth. While relative decoupling has been achieved in numerous countries, absolute decoupling remains challenging and seemingly unattainable (Hickel & Kallis, 2020). In this respect, the present study aimed to scrutinize the decoupling dynamics of economic growth, energy consumption, and pollution in Iran from 2000 to 2020, employing the method proposed by Tapio (2005) as well as factor analysis across three energy levels.Materials and MethodsThe study followed the method proposed by Tapio (2005) in order to calculate the decoupling between energy consumption and economic growth. First, the decoupling elasticity coefficient was calculated as outlined below: (1)e(E) is the elasticity coefficient of decoupling between economic growth and energy consumption. ∆E represents changes in energy consumption during the time period under study. E (t-1) indicates energy consumption in the base year. ∆G refers to changes in GDP per capita during the time period, and G (t-1) indicates the GDP per capita in the base year (Wang & Zhang, 2021). In the method proposed by Tapio (2005), eight decoupling states can be distinguished (Figure 1).Figure 1. Decoupling states The present study conducted a more comprehensive analysis of decoupling by using factor analysis at various energy levels. In this line, the consumption across three energy levels (primary, final, useful) was divided into three distinct effects: activity (production rate), structural (change of economic structure), and intensity (technology effect). The logarithmic mean division method and each of these effects were used as follows: (2) (3) (4) (5)The study also divided economic activities into several categories: agriculture, services, industry, residential, and transportation. This categorization aligns with the most feasible separation based on the available data and statistical classifications within domestic data sources. In Iran’s energy balance, although household, public, and commercial sectors are categorized under one group, these sectors were individually reported, and the residential sector was distinguished from the commercial and public sector (as the service sector).Results and DiscussionFigure 2 presents the decoupling dynamics of Iran’s economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions during 2000–2020. The figure is divided into two parts focused on various energy levels for different components: the first part depicts the decoupling of economic growth and energy consumption, while the second part shows the decoupling of energy consumption from carbon dioxide emissions. As show in Figure 2, the decoupling of economic growth and carbon dioxide follows a pattern similar to and influenced by the decoupling process between economic growth and fossil energy consumption. The decoupling of economic growth and fossil energy consumption aligns with changes in decoupling at different energy levels (primary, final, and useful), reflecting the significant share of fossil energy in Iran’s overall energy consumption. Figure 2 also highlights the weak decoupling between fossil energy consumption and carbon dioxide, which can be attributed to the nature of fossil fuel pollution. Consequently, the decoupling of economic growth from carbon dioxide is influenced by fossil energy consumption.The first part of Figure 2 reveals various forms of negative decoupling (expansive negative, weak negative, and strong negative) concerning economic growth and energy consumption. Correspondingly, the second part indicates a generally weak decoupling for different energy levels and carbon dioxide emissions. Within the energy consumption components, the intensity component exhibits strong decoupling, though it fluctuates, sometimes displaying positive decoupling (weak, recessive, and strong) and occasionally negative decoupling (expansive and strong negative)—which can be caused by the drop in technology. This finding aligns with the second part of Figure 2, where the decoupling of the intensity component and carbon dioxide experiences fluctuations. Notably, the structural component in the first part of Figure 2 exhibits the strongest negative decoupling from economic growth, signifying a change in Iran’s economic structure that has exacerbated the decoupling between energy consumption and economic growth. However, the decoupling of the structural component and carbon dioxide, as depicted in the second part of Figure 2, remains within the range of weak but fluctuating decoupling.Finally, the first part of Figure 2 indicates that economic growth is often associated with negative decoupling (expansive and strong negative) from total energy consumption. Despite weak decoupling in initial periods and subsequent fluctuations, the last two years show strong decoupling between total energy consumption and carbon dioxide. Overall, Figure 2 illustrates a fluctuating trend in the decoupling of economic growth and energy consumption over time, predominantly featuring negative decoupling, which corresponds to the decoupling trend between energy consumption and carbon dioxide. Among the components of energy consumption, the intensity component exhibits strong negative decoupling, while the structural component displays weak decoupling, both characterized by fluctuating patterns. This fluctuation may stem from the absence of a specific plan and strategy to decouple economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon dioxide.Figure 2. Decoupling of economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon dioxide emission in Iran during 2000–2020 Expansive negative decoupling decoupling ExpansiveWeak decouplingStrong decouplingRecessive decoupling Recessive coupling Weak negative decoupling Strong negative decouplingConclusionUsing the method proposed by Tapio (2005) and factor analysis across three energy levels, the present study investigated the dynamics of decoupling economic growth, energy consumption, and pollution in Iran during 2000–2020. The findings underscored challenges faced by the policy aimed at reducing energy consumption, which is primarily due to the dependency of Iran’s economy on energy. Specifically, the research showed the dependency of Iran’s economy on energy on energy consumption across all three levels: primary energy, final energy, and useful energy. Moreover, the results highlighted a low degree of energy efficiency, particularly at higher energy levels (secondary and useful). Considering the relation between environmental pressure and restrictions on economic growth, there is a pressing need to address energy intensity and energy efficiency to strike a balance between economic growth and energy consumption. The observed negative decoupling in structural, intensity, and activity effects suggests a lack of a specific strategy in Iran’s economy concerning the decoupling and balance between energy consumption and economic development. In light of these findings, it is imperative to focus on enhancing energy consumption efficiency across diverse energy levels. Additionally, the study recommends prioritizing more effective decoupling in sustainable development policies concerning energy consumption, economic growth, and pollution.
Ali Asghar Banouei
Volume 1, Issue 2 , October 1996, , Pages 7-23
Behrooz Hadi Zonooz
Volume 2, Issue 6 , October 2000, , Pages 7-38
Abstract
The Present research is an attempt to investigate the effects of Iran's trade strategy on the Performance of the country's manufacturing sector during 1979-1998.I have formulated three working hypotheses as follows: (i) Import substitution strategy depending on petroleum export promotion, being inherently ...
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The Present research is an attempt to investigate the effects of Iran's trade strategy on the Performance of the country's manufacturing sector during 1979-1998.I have formulated three working hypotheses as follows: (i) Import substitution strategy depending on petroleum export promotion, being inherently vulnerable, leads to foreign exchange constraintsin the long run. (ii) In Iran, industrial protectionism and extensive state intervention in the goods, capital, and foreign exchange markets over the past two decades have led to static inefficiency in the resource allocation of the economy in the sense that the benefits and costs of economic enterprises have deviated from the social benefits and costs. And (iii) the long-term pursuance of import substitution strategy braced with a persistent policy of non-selective, unconditional protection without any targeted time limit, have produced considerable damaging effects on the dynamism of the long run industrial growth.Concerning a financial incentive system, the present research has revealed certain significant points as follows: (a) the pattern of protection can be characterized as disorganized, ambiguous and arbitrary. To substantiate the point, calculations have been made to identity the nominal and the effective rates of protection (ERP) for four major branches of industry. Using the conclusion, it is inferred that, concerning the operational extension of protection, differentiation has not been made between old manufacturing branches and modern industries. (b) Not only is the pattern of protection arbitrary, but the objectives of protection are not tailored with any targeted time-span.Industrial performance has not been evaluated in relation to export promotion, production quality improvement, or cost reduction of output per unit. In spite of the already tried and failed experiences from the previous rigime showing industrial development strategy relying on single foreign exchange earnings of petroleum is vulnerable, the revolutionary government, for reasons of ideolgical considerations and without any economic evaluation of domestic and international circumstances enthusiastically patronised the policy of self-sufficiency and self-reliance.The policy which has been advocated for a long time, has failed realize the sweeping implications of globalisation in the world economy and the domestic economy's urgent need for non-oil export promotion.
Financial Economics
Hossein Talakesh Naeini; Reza Taleblou; Teymor Mohammadi; Parisa Mohajeri
Abstract
Extensive applications of asset pricing in the fields of finance and economics lead to an increasing importance of this issue, which has attracted more attentions of researchers in theoretical and empirical aspects. Due to this issue, the main purpose of this paper is to compare two asset pricing methods ...
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Extensive applications of asset pricing in the fields of finance and economics lead to an increasing importance of this issue, which has attracted more attentions of researchers in theoretical and empirical aspects. Due to this issue, the main purpose of this paper is to compare two asset pricing methods i.e. “Beta” and “stochastic discount factor” in Iran Stock Exchange market. Using the monthly data of Tehran Stock Exchange index return and return of shares of the companies listed in the stock exchange market of Iran during 1379(1) to 1398(6), we have formed 5*5 baskets-called 25 portfolios of Fama and French- to evaluate the efficiency and stability of one factor model (capital asset pricing model) and multi-factors model (Fama and French’s 3 factors model) using Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation method. The results show that the aforementioned methods are not completely superior to each other. In fact, for CAPM model, stochastic discount factor method is more efficient and less stable than Beta method and vice versa for Fama and French’s 3 factors model.
Energy Economy
Seyyed Mohammad Ghaem Zabihi; Fatemeh Akbari; Narges Salehnia
Abstract
The relationship between economic, financial, political risks and per capita carbon emission (CO2) is considered as one of the major global challenges. The effect of these three factors on carbon emissions is very important. Therefore, the current research seeks to investigate the role of economic, financial, ...
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The relationship between economic, financial, political risks and per capita carbon emission (CO2) is considered as one of the major global challenges. The effect of these three factors on carbon emissions is very important. Therefore, the current research seeks to investigate the role of economic, financial, and political risk in reducing per capita carbon emissions (CO2) by using the very new and fresh approach of quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR) modeling in the annual period from 1990 to 2018. The statistical relationship between the variables mentioned in Eviews12 and Matlab2022 software platform has been investigated for Iran. The results show that the economic risk variable in all quantiles (0.5 to 0.95) had a positive effect on carbon emissions per capita in all quantiles (0.5 to 0.95), and this positive relationship was relatively stronger in the quantiles (0.3 to 0.95), of the economic risk variable. the financial risk variable in all quantiles (0.5 to 0.95) had a positive effect on carbon emissions per capita in all quantiles (0.5 to 0.95), and this positive relationship was relatively weak in all quantiles (0.5 to 0.95) of the financial risk variable, as well as Politics risk has a positive effect on carbon emissions per capita in all quantiles (0.5 to 0.95) and this positive relationship is relatively weak in all quantiles (0.5 to 0.95) of the Politics risk variable. Thus, the need to pay attention to Iran's economic, financial, and political stability to improve the environment's quality and reduce carbon emission (CO2) is very important.1.IntroductionThe most significant global threat in the 21st century is climate change and global warming, primarily driven by carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (Akadiri et al., 2021; Oladipopo et al., 2021). The rapid development of modern industrial societies worldwide in recent years has led to a gradual rise in the consumption of fossil fuels, including coal, oil, and natural gas. The increased consumption has resulted in the substantial emission of CO2 (Danish et al., 2019; Dong et al., 2018; Zhao et al., 2021). In recent years, there has been an enhanced awareness among governments and international organizations worldwide regarding the impact of climate change on the economy, society, and the environment (Gambier et al., 2022). The heightened awareness has prompted the adoption of environmental protection policies (Roncroni et al., 2021). However, the implementation of these policies requires significant expenditures. Consequently, the role of financial stability in addressing the risks associated with climate change and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has gained increasing importance (Sun et al., 2022). Research indicates that a stable financial environment is conducive to stimulating production and investment, albeit with a potential increase in energy consumption and CO2 emissions (Solimana et al., 2017).Global warming and CO2 emissions are closely intertwined with economic and political risks (Adoms et al., 2018). Global uncertainties have increased the volatility of economic and political policies on a global scale. Any form of uncertainty, be it social, political, economic, or war-related, invariably impacts economic activities (Blatman & Miguel, 2010; Guidolin & La Ferrara, 2010). Economic (in)stability plays a crucial role in shaping the environment in which companies operate, influencing the decision-making processes of economic entities. Similarly, political instability can significantly impact investors’ decision-making. Moreover, political risk is on the rise in nearly all countries, exerting pressure on military budgets at the expense of construction budgets. This situation leads to a reduction in overall production within the country, and the decreased production results in a further decline in energy consumption, and ultimately leading to a decrease in carbon emissions (Ahmad et al., 2022). Employing a novel methodology known as quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR), the present research aimed to explore the impact of economic, financial, and political risks on per capita carbon emissions in Iran during 1990–2018. Regarding the methodology and the specific focus, no similar research has been conducted in Iran. Therefore, the current study stands out for its innovation in terms of subject matter, methodology, and the targeted context, potentially yielding significant findings.2. Materials and MethodsThe QQR approach is a novel method for analyzing bivariate equations. Introduced by Sim and Zhu (2015), it combines ordinary regression and nonparametric estimation, providing more comprehensive insights compared to traditional estimation methods. QQR examines the intricate relationship between the lower and upper quantiles of the data series, which yields a more realistic analytical perspective than conventional methods (Yu et al., 2022). This study used the QQR approach to investigate the relationship between economic, financial, and political risks and per capita carbon emissions. In this line, the econometric model was formulated as in Equation (1): (1) In Equation (1), CO2t denotes per capita carbon emissions in year t. ERt represents economic risk in year t. FRt is financial risk in year t. PRt indicates political risk in year t, and 𝜀𝑡 is a component of the model error.Several methods were used to analyze the data, including the descriptive analysis, assessment of variable reliability, the diagnostic test (esp., the disruption components autocorrelation test), the correlation test, Johansen’s co-accumulation, and finally the quantile-by-quantile model estimation.3. Results and DiscussionUtilizing the innovative econometric approach of quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR), the research explored the statistical relationship between economic, financial, and political risk variables and per capita carbon emissions in Iran during 1990–2018. The findings revealed that the economic risk variable had a positive effect on carbon emissions per capita across all quantiles (0.5 to 0.95), with this positive relationship being relatively stronger in the 0.3–0.95 quantiles of the economic risk variable. Similarly, the financial risk variable had a positive effect on carbon emissions per capita in all quantiles (0.5 to 0.95), although this positive relationship is relatively weak across all quantiles of the financial risk variable. Likewise, political risk positively influenced carbon emissions per capita in all quantiles (0.5 to 0.95), with this positive relationship being relatively weak across all quantiles of the political risk variable. The research results align with the findings of Zhang and Chiu (2020), Abbasi and Riaz (2016), Mehmet et al. (2018), and Zaidi et al. (2019).4.ConclusionThe present study aimed to examine the correlation between economic, financial, political risks, and per capita carbon emissions in Iran during 1990–2018. The findings emphasize the significance of maintaining economic, financial, and political stability in Iran as it is crucial for enhancing the quality of the environment and mitigating carbon emissions.
Mahmoud Khataie; Akbar Nafari; Behrooz Hadi Zonooz
Volume 1, Issue 3 , February 1998, , Pages 9-26
