Ahmad Sadraei Javaheri
Volume 13, Issue 38 , April 2009, , Pages 243-256
Abstract
The paper examines industrial concentration in Iranian food products and beverages industries using firm level data aggregated to the 4-digit ISIC industry level between 2002 and 2004. Based on different concentration indices the average level of concentration has increased slightly for the period of ...
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The paper examines industrial concentration in Iranian food products and beverages industries using firm level data aggregated to the 4-digit ISIC industry level between 2002 and 2004. Based on different concentration indices the average level of concentration has increased slightly for the period of study. The empirical results show that increase in the level of concentration is more likely in industries that are more profitable. The results also show that initial capital requirement has positive and significant effect on the likelihood of changes in the level of concentration in the selected industries. Factors such as size, advertising intensity and R&D intensity do not have a significant effect on the probability of changes in concentration.
Welfare, poverty and income distribution
Hamidreza Navvabpour
Abstract
Most countries of the world define poverty as a lack of money. Yet poor people themselves consider their experience of poverty much more broadly. A person who is poor can suffer from multiple disadvantages at the same time. Therefore, focusing on one factor alone, such as income, is not enough to capture ...
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Most countries of the world define poverty as a lack of money. Yet poor people themselves consider their experience of poverty much more broadly. A person who is poor can suffer from multiple disadvantages at the same time. Therefore, focusing on one factor alone, such as income, is not enough to capture the true reality of poverty. In Iran several studies have been done to calculate multidimensional poverty index, but most of them have been used household income and expenditure survey data that have limitation to calculate related indicators. The purpose of the study is to calculate and measure multidimensional poverty and the contribution of each dimension to overall poverty at the provincial levels of Iran using the Alkier-Foster method to assist policymakers in poverty alleviation. In this study, the data of the Multiple Indicator Demographic and Health Survey (MIDHS) of 2015, which includes 33013 households and more data to offer, has been used. The results show that, in addition to Khuzestan and Qom provinces, Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) was particularly high in provinces on the eastern borders, while the provinces located on the northern, southern, and part of the western borders of the country, experienced less poverty. The contribution of each dimension to overall poverty also showed that the type of deprivation experienced by households in the provinces of Iran in 2015 was different.
Mohammad Reza Abedin; Mitra Rahmani; Hossein Mohammad Saeid
Volume 8, Issue 28 , October 2006, , Pages 195-217
Abstract
In this paper, the trade potentials between Iran and GCC are identified by employing gravity models. Moreover, the Comparative Advantage Index of Iran and GCC countries are calculated from 1997 to 2001.
The result of this study shows that Iran can increase its exports to the GCC countries ...
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In this paper, the trade potentials between Iran and GCC are identified by employing gravity models. Moreover, the Comparative Advantage Index of Iran and GCC countries are calculated from 1997 to 2001.
The result of this study shows that Iran can increase its exports to the GCC countries to 652 million US$ and also raise its imports to 642 million US$, implying significant differences between trade potentials and trade performances.
Behavioral economics
Morteza Khorsandi; Mahnoush abdollahmilani; Teymur Mohamadi; pardis hejazi
Abstract
The effect of income on subjective-wellbeing (as one of the criteria for measuring mental well-being) has been considered in many studies but various dimensions of this effect have not yet been studied. The study aims to investigate the nonlinear effect of income on the subjective-wellbeing of 58 selected ...
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The effect of income on subjective-wellbeing (as one of the criteria for measuring mental well-being) has been considered in many studies but various dimensions of this effect have not yet been studied. The study aims to investigate the nonlinear effect of income on the subjective-wellbeing of 58 selected countries during 2005 to 2020, which has been studied in two scenarios. For this purpose, a PSTR model developed from regime change models has been used. In the present study, the effects of income, unemployment, inflation, life expectancy, and income inequality on subjective-wellbeing have also been investigated. According to the obtained results, in a nonlinear relationship, the effect of GDP on subjective well-being at a certain threshold value of income inequality is decreasing. Therefore, if increasing national income and reducing income inequality as a factor affecting welfare is considered by politicians, it is also important to note that reducing inequality from a certain threshold onwards reduces the impact of income on welfare. This means that from a certain threshold on income inequality, the focus of governments on reducing income inequality should be reduced so that resources are spent on essentials.
Political economy
Farshad Moameni; hojjatollah mirzaei; ali jafari shahrestani
Abstract
Before 1990th, in political economy theories, the security of property rights was to be presumed. The importance of property rights as the underlying factor of economic growth and economic development was first noticed by new institutional economists and then expanded. This paper studied the Marxist ...
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Before 1990th, in political economy theories, the security of property rights was to be presumed. The importance of property rights as the underlying factor of economic growth and economic development was first noticed by new institutional economists and then expanded. This paper studied the Marxist and methodological individualism political economy approaches that have been used by researchers to describe the main reasons for the underdevelopment of Iran with a focus on property rights.The weakness of them all is inadvertence to Iranian historical features and failure to present an independent theory regarding the inefficiency of property rights in the history of Iran. Therefore, using the new institutional approach, which is based on historical studies and society institutions and using them in the analysis of the role of property rights on underdevelopment and not just studying the series of historical developments and geographical features, could be a facilitator. In this way, this paper suggests focusing on these features of Iran:1) Specific climatic conditions of Iran with the lack of water, which is the main reason for tension;2) The effect of climate conditions on political and economical systems (the government theory) and forming nomadism and tribal life and tribal governments;3) The effect of forming those political and economical system on property rights underdevelopment (the property rights theory).
Planning and Budget
samira ghanbari; Hamid Amadeh; Davood Danesh Jafari; teymoor mohammadi
Abstract
Today, financing through health insurance is known as one of the most important sources of financing in the health sector. In this regard, improving the level of satisfaction of the insured and increasing their access to medical services are among the most important goals of health insurance organizations, ...
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Today, financing through health insurance is known as one of the most important sources of financing in the health sector. In this regard, improving the level of satisfaction of the insured and increasing their access to medical services are among the most important goals of health insurance organizations, and organizations that provide access to suitable services without imposing a financial burden on their insured will be successful. For this purpose, the balance in the revenue sources and expenses of the organizations in question is very important. the purpose of this research is to examine the budget balance in five funds of Iran Health Insurance Organization during the period of 2008-2019 using monthly data and also to analyze the factors affecting the budget deficit of these funds including premiums, coinsurance, treatment and overhead costs and the number of services purchased by various funds of Iran Health Insurance Organization, from the perspective of their mediating role in reimbursement, behavior management and purchasing medical services, using by panel vector error correction model, in order to provide a solution to eliminate the budget deficit. The obtained results showed that in the long run, coinsurance paid by the insured and the premium paid to different funds of Iran Health Insurance Organization had a negative effect on the budget deficit of the mentioned funds. In contrast, the increase in treatment and overhead costs and the number of services purchased by Five funds of Iran Health Insurance Organization exacerbated the problem of budget deficit of these funds.
Banking
Meysam Amiri; samira farahani
Abstract
In recent decades, the functioning of financial markets and banks have undergone significant changes, and many institutions similar to the functioning of traditional banks have grown outside the regulatory structure of the central bank, which is referred to as shadow banking. Instead of focusing on the ...
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In recent decades, the functioning of financial markets and banks have undergone significant changes, and many institutions similar to the functioning of traditional banks have grown outside the regulatory structure of the central bank, which is referred to as shadow banking. Instead of focusing on the traditional activities of traditional banks, shadow banking uses a more diverse set of resources and tools and it has been able to create changes in economic risks and also be effective in the changes and economic policies of countries. In this study, in order to estimate shadow banking and its relationship with traditional banking, between 2011 and 2021, the modeling of the money demand function in the framework of a system of simultaneous equations was used along with the MeinflexLarent function, which has flexibility. Also, according to the discussion of variance of heterogeneity, BEKK GARCH model was used to estimate the model to help solve the existing heteroscedasticity. The investigations and results of this research show that during the last decade, shadow banking has grown at an increasing rate, and in the last decade, conventional banking and shadow banking replaced each other based on Morishima's substitutability elasticity index. Also, the results show that the spillover effect of short-term deposit shocks and fixed income funds on Islamic bonds is positive, incremental and significant.On the other hand, the effect of the series of shocks of fixed income funds on cash and short-term deposits has been meaningless.
Monetary economy
Mohammad Mahdi Asgari Dehabadi; Ali Nassiri Aghdam; Hossein Doroodian; Parisa Mohajeri
Abstract
Iran's economy has faced many problems in recent years. the government's indebtedness to contractors stands as one of Iran's most pressing issues which has had bad effects on the monetary and banking system of Iran. This predicament has precipitated several adverse consequences, including the cost of ...
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Iran's economy has faced many problems in recent years. the government's indebtedness to contractors stands as one of Iran's most pressing issues which has had bad effects on the monetary and banking system of Iran. This predicament has precipitated several adverse consequences, including the cost of funds for banks, elevated interest rates on loans, an unrestrained surge in the money supply, and a diminishing capacity for banks to extend loans. To tackle this challenge, some economists with emphasis on endogenous nature of money, propose a remedy grounded in credit easing. this approach entails settling the government's debt to contractors by effecting adjustments on the asset side of the Central Bank's balance sheet. However, the practical execution of this policy hinges on the utilization of Central Bank resources, raising concerns about a sudden surge in money supply and potential adverse impacts on other economic variables, notably inflation. This has cast doubt on the feasibility of implementing such a strategy. In this research, we delved into the fundamental principles and prerequisites of adopting the credit easing policy in Iran. To evaluate the potential outcomes of implementing this policy, we employ the stock flow consistent model. Our findings reveal that settling the government's debt to banks through the utilization of Central Bank resources leads to an expansion in the monetary base and money supply, an upswing in real GDP, and a decrease in both inflation and interest rates when juxtaposed with the baseline scenario.
Financial Economics
Reza Taleblou; mohammad mehdi bagheri todeshki
Abstract
This paper investigates the impact of sentiment as a critical risk factor in the capital market, leading to behavioral deviations in the pricing of financial assets. We propose an estimation of the asset pricing model based on the Stochastic discount factor (SDF) framework, incorporating both traditional ...
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This paper investigates the impact of sentiment as a critical risk factor in the capital market, leading to behavioral deviations in the pricing of financial assets. We propose an estimation of the asset pricing model based on the Stochastic discount factor (SDF) framework, incorporating both traditional and behavioral approaches. By extending the consumption-based asset pricing model (CCAPM) and introducing sentiment into the utility function through the Euler equations and the generalized method of moments (GMM), we analyze the Tehran Stock Exchange.To quantify sentiment, we utilize the market turnover sentiment index as a reliable indicator. Our study covers the period from 1390 to 1399 and encompasses 18 stock exchange groups, consisting of 63 listed companies on the Tehran Stock Exchange.The results indicate that the behavioral SDF model offers higher consistency and efficiency compared to the traditional model, aligning closely with the dynamics observed in the Tehran Stock Exchange. Moreover, the coefficient of sentiment proves to be statistically significant. In terms of risk, the behavioral model demonstrates higher coefficients than the traditional model. Interestingly, both models suggest that market participants exhibit a high time preference factor and demonstrate patience in their investment behavior.
Financial Economics
Mohammad Feghhi Kashani; Teymor Mohammadi; hadi pirdaye
Abstract
Corporates adjust their information voluntary disclosure according to the volatilities they experience in their cash flows. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of news concerning risk, ambiguity level, and investors' ambiguity aversion on the policy adopted by firms as to the voluntary ...
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Corporates adjust their information voluntary disclosure according to the volatilities they experience in their cash flows. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of news concerning risk, ambiguity level, and investors' ambiguity aversion on the policy adopted by firms as to the voluntary disclosure (conservative or non-conservative) of soft and hard information in the digital industry subset of Tehran Stock Exchange within the period of 2012-2022. Further, we have used the corporate voluntary disclosure lag to capture the disclosure dynamics along with the control variables including the cost of capital, financial leverage and stock liquidity by dynamic panel models to explain the voluntary disclosure behavior of soft and hard information of the corporates. The results indicate that managers of companies active in the digital industry, depending on the type of information available to them for voluntary disclosure conservatively or non-conservatively, respond differently to the news related to risk, ambiguity and ambiguity aversion of investors. That could be due to the nature of the disclosed information (credibility of information for investors). Likewise, the findings confirm the increasing effects of voluntary disclosure of previous periods on the disclosure of subsequent periods, which somehow confirms the existence of inertia in voluntary disclosure policies in the studied industry.
Political economy
Hossein Tavakolian; reza talebloo; Shaghayegh Abasali
Abstract
Despite, the measures for improvement of the State budget system in the current economic situation in Iran, no improvement has been taken. As, the relationship between beneficiaries of the budget included the government, parliament, regulatory bodies, and people as the final beneficiary of budget, has ...
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Despite, the measures for improvement of the State budget system in the current economic situation in Iran, no improvement has been taken. As, the relationship between beneficiaries of the budget included the government, parliament, regulatory bodies, and people as the final beneficiary of budget, has not regulated properly, therefore, transparency and accountability of the various officials of the government has been decreased. In this paper, we study budgetary and off-budgetary operation of the government and its impact on inflation with emphasis on fiscal dominance via banking system, using Generalized Methods of the Moments (GMM) trough 1372-1397. The results indicate that increasing the fiscal dominance via the debt channel of banking system has positive effect on inflation thus, fiscal dominance via banking system has been proved. Also, the results confirm the negative relationship between political stability and control of corruption on inflation. This variable has been in a low level during the sample period which requires the attention of government in all areas and political factions of country.
Economic Development
mohaddaseh soleimani; Aliasghar Banouei; Esfandiar Jahangard; teymor mohamadi
Abstract
Innovation and technological changes spans various geographical locations over the time.The inability of Input-Output models in measuring the effects of technology changes, caused by new innovations, is known as a weakness of these models. In this article, we show how this weakness can be addressed by ...
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Innovation and technological changes spans various geographical locations over the time.The inability of Input-Output models in measuring the effects of technology changes, caused by new innovations, is known as a weakness of these models. In this article, we show how this weakness can be addressed by employing the fields of influence method. Technology changes are modeled as changes of one or more elements in the direct coefficients matrix and the impact of such changes in the Leontief matrix is measured. Here is the main question: Does the technology changes only impact a limited sector or the entire economical system? In other words, how would technology changes in one sector impact other sectors of economic system? The main goal in this paper is proposing a method which can measure how different sectors get impacted by changes at different levels such as one element, all elements, one row or one column and then evaluates the importance of different sectors. To this aim, Iran’s Input-Output tables over the period of 1365-1395 with the fixed price of Iran’s statistics center in 1390 is used. The impact of technology changes on each sector is measured using Leontief’s inverse matrix and the column field of influence approach (CFOI) approach. Our findings indicate that over this period of time, technological changes in the industry and then construction sectors have the most influence and the mining sector has the least influence on other sectors of Iran’s economy.
Economic Development
mahya allahgholi; Farshad Moameni
Abstract
Considering the economic complexity index as a development index due to its greater estimation power in predicting economic growth and income inequality compared to similar indices, along with shortcomings such as the inability to express the difference in the complexity levels of economies, it makes ...
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Considering the economic complexity index as a development index due to its greater estimation power in predicting economic growth and income inequality compared to similar indices, along with shortcomings such as the inability to express the difference in the complexity levels of economies, it makes the theoretical model to explain this index inevitable. In the social orders approach, the type of social order is mentioned as the difference between developed and developing economies, and in this article an attempt has been made to identified determinants of this index. In this study by descriptive analytical method the state of property rights, the business environment and the type of people`s access to organizations are known as three variables affecting this index. analyzing Iran`s economic complexity index during 10-period (2010-2020) and three indexes, international property rights, ease of doing business and economic freedom, respectively as an estimation of those variables, shows that the international property rights index has a stronger positive relationship with the economic complexity index than the other two indices.
Behavioral economics
Habib Morovat; Ali Asghar Salem; shayan mohammadsharifi
Abstract
Several factors are effective in the growth and development of the stock market. One of these factors is the behavior and performance of individual investors in these markets. Individual investors are interested in investing in the stock market for various reasons, such as long-term capital growth, dividends, ...
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Several factors are effective in the growth and development of the stock market. One of these factors is the behavior and performance of individual investors in these markets. Individual investors are interested in investing in the stock market for various reasons, such as long-term capital growth, dividends, and hedging against the decline in purchasing power caused by inflation. But their performance in this market, in addition to the general economic and stock market conditions, depends on the individual characteristics of the investor. Therefore, in this study, an attempt has been made to determine the significance of demographic characteristics such as age and gender, risk-taking and degree of patience, behavioral biases such as overconfidence and loss aversion, and investment characteristics such as experience and investing skill, and frequency of portfolio restructuring on the individual investor performance in the Tehran stock market. For this purpose, using systematic sampling, the required information was collected from 240 questionnaires from the population of individual investors in the Tehran stock market. Data analysis using the ordinal logit model showed that the variables of age, gender, and degree of risk taking do not have a significant effect on the performance of real investors. The degree of patience of people has a positive and significant effect on the performance of investors, and more patient people get more returns. Overconfidence and loss aversion have a negative and significant effect on investors' performance, and finally, investment experience and skill have a positive and significant effect on investors' performance.
Seyed Mehdi Barakchian; Hosein Joshaghani; Ehsan Azarmsa; Saber Ahmadi Renani; Sepehr Ekbatani
Abstract
Fama and French (1993) show that systematic risk of market, size, and book to market value constitute the common risk factors in the United States exchange market. In this study, we examine the explaining power of their model in Tehran stock exchange (TSE) for the period of 1991-2015, and explore the ...
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Fama and French (1993) show that systematic risk of market, size, and book to market value constitute the common risk factors in the United States exchange market. In this study, we examine the explaining power of their model in Tehran stock exchange (TSE) for the period of 1991-2015, and explore the validity of the model in TSE. While book to market value risk is of less importance for investors in TSE, size risk is essential and is priced for a large number of firms. Further, we investigate the contribution of each risk factor in bull and bear markets. It is shown that in bull markets, investors pay more attention to size risk, and in bear markets, risk of book to market value is more important in determining the risk factor. Finally, we introduce risk of price to earning as a common risk factor and add it to Fama-French three-factor model. We emphasize its role alongside the other three factors in stock pricing in TSE.
saeed moshiri; Habib Morovat; Farhad Fallahi; Mohammad Reza Asghari Oskoei; Meisam Doustizadeh
Abstract
We develop an agent-based model to study the effects of the electricity market reform on the electricity prices, the power plants’ technology mix as well as their capacity utilization and profits. The reform’s main objective is to open the electricity market to more competition and increase ...
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We develop an agent-based model to study the effects of the electricity market reform on the electricity prices, the power plants’ technology mix as well as their capacity utilization and profits. The reform’s main objective is to open the electricity market to more competition and increase the efficiency. The new wholesale electricity market will operate based on the one-day-ahead auctions organized by the independent system operator. We set up two scenarios in which the market clearing mechanism changes from the pay-as-bid to market clearing price (MCP) and the fuel subsidy to power plants will be removed. The effects of the two scenarios will be analyzed on the market prices, plant revenues, market shares, and power generating units’ capacities. The simulation results show that the electricity prices are higher during the peak load mainly due to the entry of the higher cost plants during those periods. Electricity prices are lower under the MCP scenario and higher under the fuel subsidy removal scenario, leading to lower and higher revenues for the power plants, respectively. The results also indicate that the market shares and the capacity utilization of the more efficient plants will increase under both scenarios.
Vahid Dehbashi; Teymour Mohammadi; Abbas Shakeri; Javid Bahrami
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to investigate the responses of stock, gold and foreign exchange markets in Iran, with an emphasis on the spillover volatility effects. For this purpose, the rate of return of variables is calculated by using the daily data of Tehran Stock Exchange price index, exchange rate ...
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The aim of this paper is to investigate the responses of stock, gold and foreign exchange markets in Iran, with an emphasis on the spillover volatility effects. For this purpose, the rate of return of variables is calculated by using the daily data of Tehran Stock Exchange price index, exchange rate and gold price during the period of 25 March 2009 to 18 July 2018. The estimated model investigates volatility spillovers in the markets using the VAR-BEKK-GARCH approach. The impulse-response functions are estimated by including the possibility of the asymmetry of the coefficients of the cross terms of the errors in MGARCH-type equations. The results show two-way volatility spillover between foreign exchange and stock markets, one-way volatility spillover from the foreign exchange to gold markets and one-way volatility spillover from the gold to stock markets. Moreover, the findings obtained from the impulse-response functions confirm the spread of uncertainty among the financial markets in Iran.
Gholamreza Keshavarz Haddad; Esmaiel Abounoori; Tahereh Jahani
Abstract
The IMF reports that, over 60% of foreign trade income and 40% of government revenue of Iran comes from the oil and gas sectors, which has always been a source of volatilities in the economy. The imposed sanctions on the Iranian economy also influence economic activities by reducing currency earnings ...
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The IMF reports that, over 60% of foreign trade income and 40% of government revenue of Iran comes from the oil and gas sectors, which has always been a source of volatilities in the economy. The imposed sanctions on the Iranian economy also influence economic activities by reducing currency earnings and restricting access to capital and intermediaries goods. Understanding extent of the shocks’ effects of sanctions and fluctuations in oil revenue, are key factors for the policymakers in foreseeable planning risks. In order to examine the effect of sanctions and oil price(revenue) fluctuations on the country's economy, this paper intends to quantify the effects of sanction by making use of a VARMAX GARCH-in-Mean Asymmetric BEKK model in terms of structural failure of the conditional variance. We use real non-oil GDP, Iranian heavy oil exports, exchange rates, total stock market index and sanctions index data over 1991:Q2 to 2018:Q1. The results show that a shock of oil revenue or sanctions index affects activities in all of three sectors. The increasing sanctions pressure leads to a spillover effect of uncertainty to all sectors under study and a decline in production activities and national currency depreciations; but in turn the relative share of the stock market in the portfolio of investors' choice increases. Strong evidence for asymmetric effects of impulses of sanction and oil revenue on the study sections is observed.
Amir Jafarzadeh; Ghahreman Abdoli; Afshin Javan
Abstract
European countries need to diversify their natural gas imports to reduce their dependency on Russia. One of the best options for exporting natural gas to European countries is to export gas through the Southern Corridor, in which Iran, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Iraq could potentially be major participants. ...
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European countries need to diversify their natural gas imports to reduce their dependency on Russia. One of the best options for exporting natural gas to European countries is to export gas through the Southern Corridor, in which Iran, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Iraq could potentially be major participants. All four countries need Turkey to export natural gas; there is no alternative way in this regard. In the present paper, the bargaining power of different countries and possible alliances for natural gas exports to Europe are studied, based on the cooperative game theory approach, especifically Shapley Value solution. Accordingly, we identify various possible scenarios as possible options. Our approach helps us know different countries' bargaining power for exporting natural gas to Europe, which is a useful approach in this field.
Ali Arabmazar Yazdi; Teimour Mohammadi; Atefeh Taklif; Reza Jalalpanahi
Abstract
In the Balance of Payments Constrained Growth (BPCG) model, demand variables such as export and import determine the limit of economic growth in the long run. In this study, we compare the results of both basic and extensive forms of the Thirlwall model for developing oil producing countries considering ...
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In the Balance of Payments Constrained Growth (BPCG) model, demand variables such as export and import determine the limit of economic growth in the long run. In this study, we compare the results of both basic and extensive forms of the Thirlwall model for developing oil producing countries considering the key role of oil exports and foreign-exchange reserves. To do so, two groups of oil developing countries are categorized based on the average daily oil production. The first category includes Iran, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Mexico, and the second one is Egypt, Algeria, Nigeria, and Indonesia. Additionally, the price and income elasticities of demand for imports and exports as well as the co-integration are investigated by using an ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model and Pesaran and Shin’s bound test. The price and income elasticities are also calculated with Kalman filter method. Then, we calculate the constrained growth in various forms for ten-year overlapping periods from 1960 to 2016 and finally test the validity of the Thirlwall law. The results indicate that Thirlwall law is not confirmed for several developing oil producing countries. The lower rate of real growth compared to constrained growth of payments in some economies including Iran can be attributed to factors such as the lower rate of capital inflow growth than the growth rate of export volumes as well as the positive effect of foreign income on the constrained growth of payments. The results show that the balance of payments is not a limiting factor for Iran's economic growth which confirms the fact that improving economic growth, in the long run, depends on the improving of the supply side.
Information and communication technology economy
Reza Taleblou; Teymor Mohammadi; Hossein Aghaei
Abstract
This article examines the theory of network-based economics (two-sided markets) and considers payment cards in Iran as a case study. Based on the monthly data of the Central Bank of Iran and the payment cards of electronic networks in Iran (SHAPARAK) from Dec. 2014 to March 2019, demand elasticity and ...
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This article examines the theory of network-based economics (two-sided markets) and considers payment cards in Iran as a case study. Based on the monthly data of the Central Bank of Iran and the payment cards of electronic networks in Iran (SHAPARAK) from Dec. 2014 to March 2019, demand elasticity and monopoly power have been estimated. The results show that the elasticity of the cardholder and the card acquirer with respect to the interchange fee rate is 0.55 and nearly 1 (1.04), respectively. These results show that the cardholders have smaller elasticity to interchange fee compared to acquirer of payment cards. The estimated market power indicates that the payment card network in Iran is highly monopolistic. The payment card platform in Iran (SHAPARAK) does not impose its market power on the buyer side (card holders) and subsidizes them in order to create balance in transactions, but this platform impose exclusive power on merchant side (card acquirer) of payment cards. With this policy, card holders are attracted to the market which increase trading on the platform and platform profits. In general, on the buyer side of Iran payment card we have P = MC but on the merchant side P> MC. Therefore, the regulatory authorities in Iran must regulate SHAPARAK market power.
International economy
Farhad Khodadad Kashi; Soheila Mirzababazadeh; Somayeh Shahhoseini; Siyavash Jani
Abstract
The experience of some countries indicates that export has been an important factor in economic growth and its sustainability. Cost advantage, knowledge and innovation are the factors that affect export. Cost advantage in turn depends on various factors such as learning by doing. Learning leads to the ...
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The experience of some countries indicates that export has been an important factor in economic growth and its sustainability. Cost advantage, knowledge and innovation are the factors that affect export. Cost advantage in turn depends on various factors such as learning by doing. Learning leads to the expansion of international trade and economic growth by reducing production costs and creating a competitive advantage. The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate learning by doing and investigating its impact on industrial exports at four-digit ISIC codes level during 2011 to 2015. For this purpose, three different indicators have been operationalized to quantify learning and three export supply models have been estimated using panel data technique. Obtained results indicate that in all three models, learning by doing has a positive and significant effect on export supply. In other words, the effect of learning on exports is not sensitive to the way of offering operational definition. Also, the variables of trade openness, research and development costs and human capital all have positive and significant effects on the export of four-digit ISIC code industries.
Economic Development
Hossein Rajabpour; Farshad Momeni; Ali Nasiri Aghdam
Abstract
This article considers the effect of fiscal policy on inclusive development. Inclusive development is one of the concepts that has been introduced in the development economics literature in the last decade and especially with emphasis on the social and political aspects of development, the distribution ...
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This article considers the effect of fiscal policy on inclusive development. Inclusive development is one of the concepts that has been introduced in the development economics literature in the last decade and especially with emphasis on the social and political aspects of development, the distribution of development achievements among different sections of society is in focus. Since fiscal policies are one of the main instruments of the government to eliminate deprivation and imbalances, it is important to understand the effectiveness of these policies in this regard. In this study, the components of fiscal policy include the combination of expenditures and revenues and its effect on inclusive development in the period 1981-2018 in the form of two models of structural vector auto-regression has been studied. Findings show that most components of government fiscal policy except economic expenditures do not have a significant effect on the index of inclusive development and these economic expenditures have a negative impact on inclusive development. The results show that the government's fiscal policies have failed to achieve or accelerate inclusive development, and despite its legal mission, the government has not been successful in comprehensive expanding welfare and extending it to all social groups. Historical analysis also shows that since the beginning of the 2010s and with the intensification of sanctions and currency fluctuations, the relationship between fiscal policy and the index of inclusive development has been weakened. It seems that the reform of the budgeting process and the simultaneous attention to the two constraints of equality and sustainability in growth and development targeting for fiscal policy on inclusive development is essential.
Monetary economy
Seyed Saleh Akbar Mousavi; Behzad Salmani; Jafar Haghighat; Hossein Asgharpour
Abstract
The main purpose of this study is to estimate the probability of banking crisis using the second generation of early warning systems (logit models), for 13 selected high-middle income countries over the period of 1980-2016. In this regard, two types of logit models; binomial and multinomial, are estimated. ...
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The main purpose of this study is to estimate the probability of banking crisis using the second generation of early warning systems (logit models), for 13 selected high-middle income countries over the period of 1980-2016. In this regard, two types of logit models; binomial and multinomial, are estimated. The results of estimated binomial logit model show that three leading indicators of the crisis are broad liquidity ratio, stock price index and inflation, which are the main causes of crisis in the studied countries. These variables account for about 17 percent of the probability of a banking crisis. Then, to avoid post-crisis bias, the multinomial logit model is estimated. The empirical results confirm that above three leading indicators are warning. Also, among the above three variables, only stock price index variable with a probability of 12.68%, causes the economy to exit the banking crisis and change its situation from the crisis/recovery period to the tranquil period. The multinomial logit model exhibit significantly better in-sample predictive abilities than the binomial logit model.
Econometrics
Morteza Khorsandi; Teymor Mohammadi; Hamidreza Arbab; Emadodin Sakhaei
Abstract
Macroeconomic policy analysis and risk management require taking account of the increasing interdependencies across markets and economies. National economic issues need to be considered from global as well as domestic perspectives. This invariably means that many different channels of transmission must ...
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Macroeconomic policy analysis and risk management require taking account of the increasing interdependencies across markets and economies. National economic issues need to be considered from global as well as domestic perspectives. This invariably means that many different channels of transmission must be taken into account. This paper investigates the effect of global economic shocks on Iran’s economy. The Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model for the first quarter of 1990 to the fourth quarter of 2019 is used for 34 countries, which cover about 90% of world gross domestic products. According to previous studies and the results of this study, it is found that only the shocks of the United States, China and the global shock affect the macroeconomic variables of other countries and oil prices, and as a result, the effect of these three shocks on the Iranian economy is investigated. Ceteris paribus, the results show that China's shock affects the variables of GDP and Iran's inflation: with a 1 percent increase in China's GDP, Iran's GDP increases by 0.08 percent and inflation by 1.2 percent and has no effect on interest rates. The US shock has an indirect effect on oil prices. Due to the isolation of the economy, foreign variables do not have significant effects on the Iranian macroeconomic variables. In general, Iran's economy, due to the size of the economy and the volume of trade shocks of other trading partners through the foreign trade channel do not affect the Iranian economy.
