Hossein Karimi Hasnije; seyed komail tayebi
Volume 9, Issue 33 , February 2008, , Pages 165-183
Farzad Eskandari; Sima Naghizade
Volume 7, Issue 23 , July 2005, , Pages 165-192
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to introduce the Baysian generalized dynamic models of non-parametric data.
Following a Generalized Dynamic Bayesian statistical inference Paradigm, in this paper, we provide a new approach for multiparameters logistic regression when we have a nonlinear model ...
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The purpose of this paper is to introduce the Baysian generalized dynamic models of non-parametric data.
Following a Generalized Dynamic Bayesian statistical inference Paradigm, in this paper, we provide a new approach for multiparameters logistic regression when we have a nonlinear model between and . In this approach Response Variable and the coefficients of the model are depended of time t.
The proposed procedure is illustrated by applying a data set for unemployment in Iran, which has previously been analyzed by various authors.
Siab Mamipour; Soghra Jafari; Ziba Sasanian Asl
Abstract
The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of monetary and fiscal policies on the business cycles in the Iranian economy during the period 2004-2016. Markov Switching model has been used with time varying transitional probabilities for the recognition of the business cycle and identifying ...
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The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of monetary and fiscal policies on the business cycles in the Iranian economy during the period 2004-2016. Markov Switching model has been used with time varying transitional probabilities for the recognition of the business cycle and identifying the influencing factors on the probability of staying in a period of recession and boom or the transition from one situation to another. The results of the MSIH(2)-AR(2)[1] model show that both expansionary monetary and fiscal policies increase expansion period, but expansionary monetary policy is more effective in expansionary fiscal policy. During the recession regime, fiscal policy has a greater impact than a monetary policy in the transition from the recession regime. Also, findings show that business cycles in Iranian economy have comovements with changes of oil revenues, but the effect of changes in oil revenues has a different effect on the staying or transition of business cycles. Thus, the increase of oil revenues reduces the probability of staying economic boom regime, but it will increase the transition probability of recession to boom regime. In fact, these results indicate that oil revenues are not managed well during the boom period but there is the relatively good management in the recession regime. [1]- Markov Switching Intercept and Heteroskedasticity terms (2 regimes)-AutoRegressive (2 Lags)
Hossein Mohammadi; Aida Ariabod
Volume 17, Issue 52 , October 2012, , Pages 169-181
Abstract
Exchange regimes at the international level, over many years have several ups and downs and they affect the economic structure of countries. Different exchange regimes show how to determine the exchange rate in the economy. The impact of exchange rate regimes on trade is one of the important issues that ...
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Exchange regimes at the international level, over many years have several ups and downs and they affect the economic structure of countries. Different exchange regimes show how to determine the exchange rate in the economy. The impact of exchange rate regimes on trade is one of the important issues that have been in many applied studies. Devaluation (i.e. increase in Real exchange rate), will cause examined the current account status to worsen and then after a short period, the situation may reverse and the current account state will improve. This change in the current account is called J-shaped curve. For current account in this paper, using a vector error correction model VECM and impulse response functions, Iran and South Korea's trade balance dynamics during the 1996 -2008 period was reviewed using quarterly data and J-shaped curve for current account tested. The results of tests did not confirm the hypothesis of the existence of a J-shaped curve between the trade balance and Real exchange rate over the studied period. The reaction of trade balance to an increase in exchange rate in the long term was found as negative and significant. In connection with the positive impact real income of South Korea on Iran's trade balance, results indicate this coefficient is significant. Also the reaction of trade balance with respect to Iran's real income is negative and significant.
Teimor Mohamadi; Leila Hoseini
Volume 15, Issue 44 , October 2010, , Pages 173-198
Abstract
This paper surveys theoretical foundation and empirical results of demand for smoking: Theoretical foundation is based on a model of habit effects .Empirical results is based on a regression for smoking demand in Iran ...
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This paper surveys theoretical foundation and empirical results of demand for smoking: Theoretical foundation is based on a model of habit effects .Empirical results is based on a regression for smoking demand in Iran for the period 1363-1379 (1984-2000). The quantity demanded is determinded by price ,income ,literacy, unemployment and divorce rates .The elasticity of demand with respect to first four variables are -0.27, 0.44, 0.2 and -2.54, respectively.The divorce rate is not significant.Thus cigarette is an inelastic and normal necessity good. Also, the significant coefficient of the quadratic term of income confirms the satiation effect. Accordingly, prohibitive policies based on price are not successful and it is necessary to make a shift to non- price measures.
Adel Azar; Davood Gholamrezaei
Volume 8, Issue 27 , July 2006, , Pages 173-153
Abstract
To achieve the national goals, specifically “Fourth Development Plan Objectives”; it is necessary to coordinate thetake into account national goals with the regional actualities. For this purpose, resources should be allocated on the basis of regional capabilities and advantages. Since, ...
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To achieve the national goals, specifically “Fourth Development Plan Objectives”; it is necessary to coordinate thetake into account national goals with the regional actualities. For this purpose, resources should be allocated on the basis of regional capabilities and advantages. Since, wWelfare promotion is the most important social goal necessary for human excellencein most countries, the development programs based on the the regional economies planning process must consider the degree of human development in the different areas and provinces of country.regions of the economy. Each region needs special plans with regard to its special characteristics. This will necessitate the identification of past and present status of different regions using scientific methods. In this paper, for the first time in Iran, we apply “Data Envelopment Analysis” to consider the human development in Iran's provinces and will measure the efficiencies of each provincesprovince in the resource utilization to produce human development index. As a matter of fact, Tthe results typically have shownshow that undeveloped provinces in overall general have higher efficiencies than developed provinces. Therefore, Iit will be necessary to pay more attention to the undeveloped regions in the future planning.
Mohsen Mehrara; Hamid Abrishami; Seyed Mohammad Hadi Sobhanian
Volume 16, Issue 49 , February 2012, , Pages 177-204
Abstract
In this study we have dealt with the non-linear effects of economic growth on the energy consumption growth in countries depending on petroleum revenues (OPEC member countries)as well as the BRIC countries. For this end, the panel data from 1980 to 2006 for both groups of above-mentioned countries was ...
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In this study we have dealt with the non-linear effects of economic growth on the energy consumption growth in countries depending on petroleum revenues (OPEC member countries)as well as the BRIC countries. For this end, the panel data from 1980 to 2006 for both groups of above-mentioned countries was employed and analyzed on the basis of threshold error correction model. The results indicate that in both group of countries, the effects of economic growth are non-linear so that the high economic growth rates (the economic growth rates more than threshold level of 0.01 for OPEC and 0.09 for BRIC) has increased the energy consumption growth with more severity. Of course, the effects of economic growth on the energy consumption growth in BRIC member countries are by far higher. Therefore, although an economic growth rate higher than threshold level may lead to environmental pollution in the OPEC member countries, but these countries should have less anxiety about the detrimental environmental effects of their economic growth compared to the BRIC countries.
Parvaneh Salatin; Samaneh Mohammadi
Abstract
The main objective of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of the most important factors affecting the health expenditures as an indicator of health in the provinces of Iran by using a panel data model. The results of hypothesis testing using fixed effects and GMM for the period 1390-1380 show ...
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The main objective of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of the most important factors affecting the health expenditures as an indicator of health in the provinces of Iran by using a panel data model. The results of hypothesis testing using fixed effects and GMM for the period 1390-1380 show that there is a positive and significant relationship among health expenditure (as an indicator for health ) and the number of students of university, higher education (as an indicator for human capital), per capita income, and the number of main insured covered by the social security organizations on the basis of voluntary insurance.
Allah Morad Seif; Musa Khoshkalam Khosroshahi
Volume 18, Issue 54 , April 2013, , Pages 181-204
Abstract
Resistance economy is a new concept that has been introduced with escalating U.S.-West sanctions against Iran's economy. In other words resistance economy is a set of management methods for minimizing the vulnerability of the economy to numerous external and internal risks. One of the sectors of the ...
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Resistance economy is a new concept that has been introduced with escalating U.S.-West sanctions against Iran's economy. In other words resistance economy is a set of management methods for minimizing the vulnerability of the economy to numerous external and internal risks. One of the sectors of the Iran's economy that has always been vulnerable to risk is the exchange market. This paper considering the vulnerability of exchange system attempts to introduce optimal exchange system for Iran's economy by presenting and estimating models for the study of the pathology of the currency exchange system. We could argue that there is no real exchange market in Iran's economy, because there is not a micro based supply and demand factors in the exchange market. Based on our findings, the following measures are recommended: implementing economic policies to diversify exports of goods and services, reforming institutional structures and the technology of productive sectors, increasing efficiency of production factors, especially labor productivity, enhancing the competitiveness of goods and services produced in the Iran's economy and finally diversifying sources of exchange supply from oil and related products and non-oil. Following the formation of exchange system, this paper proposes a managed floating exchange system as optimal exchange system for Iran's economy.
Hossein Mehrabi Boshrabadi; Somayeh Kouchakzadeh; Hamid taboli
Volume 15, Issue 45 , February 2011, , Pages 181-198
Abstract
One of the main concerns that many countries of the world are encountering, is some economic activities which are usually hidden from official view. These activities could effect deviation from correct position and prescribe incorrect polices.
In this study, after short review on concept and different ...
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One of the main concerns that many countries of the world are encountering, is some economic activities which are usually hidden from official view. These activities could effect deviation from correct position and prescribe incorrect polices.
In this study, after short review on concept and different distances of shadow economy to try that investigated effects of shadow economy volume on economic growth for 1981-2007 by vector error correction model (VECM). Shadow economy was estimated by fuzzy logic method. Results indicated that in Iran, with increase of one percentage size of shadow economy, 0/38 percentage diminished economic growth.
Hojjatullah Abdolmaleki; Nematullah Akbari; Kiomars Aghaei
Volume 13, Issue 38 , April 2009, , Pages 181-216
Abstract
In empirical microeconomics analysis, the decision making pattern of firms for the site location is very important. Additionally, regarding the lack of information in real economic situation and because of the shortage in resources, analysis of advantageous level of different regions subject to different ...
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In empirical microeconomics analysis, the decision making pattern of firms for the site location is very important. Additionally, regarding the lack of information in real economic situation and because of the shortage in resources, analysis of advantageous level of different regions subject to different products is necessary for guiding and encouraging private entrepreneurs and improvement of resource allocation. Thus theoretically and practically two questions may be asked: first, according to the wide range of theories in this area and specialty of each, regarding different aspects of the problem (production costs, accessibility to facilities, …) how is possible to develop a comprehensive theoretical base for practical advantageous analysis? Second, regarding this comprehensive theoretical base, in the case of Iranian provinces how is the advantageous patterns for production development in different regions (provinces)? Seeking for answers to these questions, initially we analyzed advantageous theories and tried to develop the comprehensive theoretical base. As this theoretical base emphasizes on different factors on advantageous determination, we followed up using multi-criteria decision making models, especially Weighted Numerical Taxonomy and Analytical Hierarchy Process for measuring advantageous coefficients of 33 sector in 30 provinces, using 25 important factors. The average of correlation coefficients in these two methods- NT and AHP- was 0.87 suggesting that these methods are highly substitution in advantageous analysis.
Javad Abedini; Hasan Ebrahimi; Hamed Fahimifard
Abstract
During two last decades, Iranians have faced with a wide and substantial increase in housing prices, especially in great metropolitans such as Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan and Shiraz. This easily could be imputed to a high inflation which significantly impeded the access to housing for low and medium income ...
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During two last decades, Iranians have faced with a wide and substantial increase in housing prices, especially in great metropolitans such as Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan and Shiraz. This easily could be imputed to a high inflation which significantly impeded the access to housing for low and medium income families. This study uses a structural model to recognize the influential factors of such a rise in housing prices and to show whether there is any price bubble in market. The model consists of both supply and demand side determinants to explain the price changes across Iranian provinces over 1375-1390(2011-1996), in a panel data context. In particular, we use a longer and larger database which also includes more number of influential factors. Some specific features of data such as non-stationarity and cointegration have been also taken into account. Our results show that, in contrast to the common thought, there is no price bubble in the Iranian housing sector. That is, the structural model could well explain the rapid increase in Iranian house prices during the last decade. In particular, we find that the expansionary monetary policies of the government, the land price for urban uses, along with the increase of the real demand for housing are the main reasons of the past inflation in the sector. On the average, one percent increase in the urban land price or liquidity, ceteris paribus, leads to, respectively, 0.375 and 0.5 percent increase in house prices.
Habibollah Salami; Ebrahim Ensan
Abstract
Non-Performing Loans (NPL) including overdue, deferred, and doubtful debts, are serious challenges facing banking systems in Iran. These three categories are not the same in risk ordering. The presence of doubtful debts creates the highest risk for the banks. Thus, specifying factors that can reduce ...
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Non-Performing Loans (NPL) including overdue, deferred, and doubtful debts, are serious challenges facing banking systems in Iran. These three categories are not the same in risk ordering. The presence of doubtful debts creates the highest risk for the banks. Thus, specifying factors that can reduce the share of this category in total NPL is very crucial. The main objective of present study is to differentiate factors affecting different classes of NPL based on their differences in reducing each of the debt categories. To this end, data on debtors of the Iranian Agricultural Bank (Bank Keshavarzi) over 2009-2013 period in two provinces of Tehran and Kermanshah were analyzed. Since the dependent variable in this study is an ordered one, the Partial Proportional Odds model, a special form of the Generalized Ordered Logit model, is utilized to specify factors affecting NPL and to distinguish their impacts on different debt categories. Results indicate that the loan receivers with dishonored cheques in their profile, most likely would not be able to repay their loan and will fall to the doubtful debts group. On the other hand, loan paid to the services and agricultural production activities compared with loan allocated to the non-agricultural activities, loans paid for investment comparing to loans paid for current operational expenses, and payments financed from bank’s own resources comparing with payments accommodated from legally designated resources are important factors that can decrease the probability of turning loans to the doubtful debts. Consequently, to reduce the share of the doubtful debts in total non-performing loans, banks need to focus on managing and controlling the above mentioned influencing factors.
Alireza Eghbali; Alireza Jorjorzadeh; Masoomeh Kiani
Volume 18, Issue 56 , October 2013, , Pages 187-203
Abstract
The purpose of this research is investigation of the relationship between income inequality and business cycles in Iran over the 1351 to 1389. In this study, Gini coefficient is the indicator of inequality, and business cycles were obtained by using the Hodrick- Prescott filter. Also In order to examine ...
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The purpose of this research is investigation of the relationship between income inequality and business cycles in Iran over the 1351 to 1389. In this study, Gini coefficient is the indicator of inequality, and business cycles were obtained by using the Hodrick- Prescott filter. Also In order to examine the effect of business cycle on inequality, autoregressive-distributed Lag (ARDL) approach was attempted. Our findings show that business cycles have negative impact on income inequality. During recession, income inequality increases and in the booms decreases. Also we find that higher minimum wages decrease income inequality, and oil incomes increase it.
Saman Ghaderi
Abstract
This study examines the hysteresis effect of currency substitution in Iran using a model of money-in-the-utility function with two currencies (home and foreign). In this respect, Divisia monetary aggregates has been used for calculating the dollars in circulating. The bounds testing approach to the analysis ...
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This study examines the hysteresis effect of currency substitution in Iran using a model of money-in-the-utility function with two currencies (home and foreign). In this respect, Divisia monetary aggregates has been used for calculating the dollars in circulating. The bounds testing approach to the analysis of level relationship proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001) and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model have been used for Iranian quarterly data during 1990- 2014. The results indicate that there is evidence supporting the existence of the hysteresis effect of currency substitution in Iran. In other words, currency substitution process is irreversible. Therefore, it is suggested that the central bank consider the effect of the hysteresis of dollarization phenomenon on monetary policy and the purpose of controlling inflation and reducing exchange rate volatility as the main reasons of currency substitution, continues to be a priority for economic policy.
Soleyman Feyzi Yengjeh; Samad Hekmati Farid; Saba Yahyavi Miyavagi
Abstract
Natural resources have an important role in economic development. But aboundance of natural resources have negative effect on Good Governance Indicators. In this study, we have investigated the effect of oil revenues on good governance indicators in 54 oil Exporting countries. The time period of study ...
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Natural resources have an important role in economic development. But aboundance of natural resources have negative effect on Good Governance Indicators. In this study, we have investigated the effect of oil revenues on good governance indicators in 54 oil Exporting countries. The time period of study is 2002 to 2013. For this purpose an econometric panel method and cross-section data has been used. The results indicate that oil resource revenues have significant negative impact on six good governance indicators introduced by the World Bank: voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law and control of corruption. Furthermore the variation of openness index, GDP, business freedom index and investment freedom index had a significant positive impact on good governance indicators.
Navid Kargardehbidi; Effat Ghorbanian; Fatemeh Fathi
Abstract
Given the existence of a mutual relationship between human health and economic growth in societies, determining factors influencing human health can be effective in formulating executive policies and plans. The present study is designed to assess the effects of economic growth, government consumption ...
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Given the existence of a mutual relationship between human health and economic growth in societies, determining factors influencing human health can be effective in formulating executive policies and plans. The present study is designed to assess the effects of economic growth, government consumption expenditures and age dependency rate on health expenditures in Islamic countries of D-8 group during 1997-2014. Regarding the results of stationary tests, a new approach to panel econometric data -Panel Auto-regressive Distribution Lag (Panel ARDL) -was used to study the long-run and short-run relationship. Health goods and services for D-8 countries are considered as luxury and essential goods in the long-term and short-term. Also, two indicators of age old dependency ratio and young age dependency ratio, have a positive and negative impact on per capita health expenditure, respectively.
Younes Goli; sohrab delangizan; Ali Falahati
Abstract
The Inequality of production efficiency is one of the main factors contributing to inequalities in economic growth among different regions. This study examines the factors affecting production efficiency by using province-level data for the period 2006-2015 by applying spatial Tobit model and translog ...
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The Inequality of production efficiency is one of the main factors contributing to inequalities in economic growth among different regions. This study examines the factors affecting production efficiency by using province-level data for the period 2006-2015 by applying spatial Tobit model and translog production function approach. Results show that Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari and Khorasan Razavi Provinces, have the highest and lowest efficiency 0.63 and 0.09 respectively. Also, the results of spatial Tobit model estimation show that industrialization with a coefficient of 0.0018 has a positive and significant effect and increase of ratio of credits to production with a coefficient of 0.0013 has a negative and significant effect on the production efficiency of provinces. In addition, the spillover effects of industrialization and the ratio of credits are -0.0104 and 0.0042 respectively. Therefore basic development of industry and allocation of resource on the relative advantage is one of the most important factors for improving the production efficiency and increasing economic growth.
Javad Harati; Gholamreza Zamanian; Hojat Tagizadeh
Abstract
Energy, one of the most essential and important factors of production and the final product, has an important role in the growth and economic development. This research examines the dynamic relationship between financial development and energy consumption based on GMM estimation in 53 developing countries ...
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Energy, one of the most essential and important factors of production and the final product, has an important role in the growth and economic development. This research examines the dynamic relationship between financial development and energy consumption based on GMM estimation in 53 developing countries and 47 advanced countries over the period 2000-2014. The results showed the positive impact of direct foreign investment and national income on energy consumption in the two groups of countries. Energy prices had a completely opposite effect on energy consumption in developing and advanced countries. The results also indicated that in both developed and advanced countries the money market plays a more effective role in reducing energy consumption in comparison with the capital markets. While the effect of financial development through the money market on energy consumption is U- inverse shape in both groups of countries, this effect through the capital market is U-shape and U-shape inverse for developing countries and advanced countries, respectively. These results might have important policy implications for energy management policymakers and authorities to achieve sustainable development in different countries.
Nasser Khiabani; Manouchehr Dehghani
Volume 19, Issue 58 , April 2014, , Pages 207-238
Abstract
Undoubtedly, new developments in information and trading technologies have increased the integration of international financial markets in the world. This in turn has generated interest in examining the volatility transmission of financial market across markets.
In this paper, we investigate the ...
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Undoubtedly, new developments in information and trading technologies have increased the integration of international financial markets in the world. This in turn has generated interest in examining the volatility transmission of financial market across markets.
In this paper, we investigate the co-movements and volatility transmission among the three important oil, gold and US dollar/euro exchange rate markets. Using weekly data from 1995 to 2012, we estimate a VAR-ABEKK-Mean model and find the evidence of return and volatility spillovers among the three markets. More specifically, we find strong evidence of significant transmission volatility from the oil market to the two other markets. We also show that the transmission of information is asymmetric among the three markets. In this regard, the bad news of an increase in oil prices appears to be more influential than news of a decline in its value for investors in gold and exchange rate markets.
freidoon salimi; Teimour Mohammadi; JAMSHID PZHOYAN; farhad ghaffari
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to study the technical, scale and technological efficiencies and also the changes in Partial and total factor productivities of provincial centers of Islamic Azad University. The methods used are DEA, Malmquist Index and a new approached known as truncated bootstrapped regression. ...
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The aim of this paper is to study the technical, scale and technological efficiencies and also the changes in Partial and total factor productivities of provincial centers of Islamic Azad University. The methods used are DEA, Malmquist Index and a new approached known as truncated bootstrapped regression. The results indicate that out of 30 units of centers in the study, only 3 units are Fully efficient: Kermanshah, central Tehran and Yazd. For the periods under study (2010 and 2016), the productivity growths for all units have been positive and 18 units had TFP changes greater than one. The study revealed that environmental factors have effects on efficiency and productivity. Specifically, one percent increase in the ratio of the number ofthe professors and associate professors to total members will increase the efficiency by a factor of 0.89 percent. An increase in the age of unit and being in the metropolitan area increase the efficiency by the amount of 0.04 and 0.01 percent respectively.
Hamid La'l Khezri; Ali Akbar Naji Meydani; Mostafa Karimzadeh
Volume 19, Issue 59 , July 2014, , Pages 211-236
Abstract
The real exchange rate is considered as a basic indicator in determining the level of international competition that explain the internal situation of the country. Instability in the performance of this Index implies imbalance in the economy. Instability of the real exchange rate will effect total demand ...
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The real exchange rate is considered as a basic indicator in determining the level of international competition that explain the internal situation of the country. Instability in the performance of this Index implies imbalance in the economy. Instability of the real exchange rate will effect total demand of the economy by import and export and will influence overall economy through costs of intermediate and final imported goods. It’s the cause of changes and fluctuations in consumer and wholesale price indices that are calculated as the basis of inflation. The present study investigates the instability of the exchange rate on the private sector's consumption using annual data for the period 1352-1390. In this regard, values of the real exchange rate volatility using the pattern of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH), and then the impact of the real exchange rate instability on private sector consumption is surveyed by using the method of Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL). The results of estimations show that in long term, Disposable income, liquidity, real exchange rate and the volatility of the real exchange rate have positive effect and Real interest rates have a negative impact on private sector consumption.
Housing Economy
Mohammad Hossein Amjadi; Ali Reza Shakibaei; Sayyed Abdolmajid Jalaee
Abstract
The purpose of the study is to portray the effect of exchange rates, its uncertainty and covid-19 pandemic on house prices in Tehran using the monthly data from Mar, 2016 to Mar, 2021. In order to calculate the uncertainty, IGARCH model and to estimate the mean equation, the ARDL method have been used. ...
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The purpose of the study is to portray the effect of exchange rates, its uncertainty and covid-19 pandemic on house prices in Tehran using the monthly data from Mar, 2016 to Mar, 2021. In order to calculate the uncertainty, IGARCH model and to estimate the mean equation, the ARDL method have been used. According to research results, the effect of exchange rate and exchange rate uncertainty index on housing prices as the objectives of this study, are positive and significant. Accordingly, a 100% increase in the exchange rate and the exchange rate uncertainty index will cause a 14% and 6% increase in housing prices in Tehran, respectively. Therefore, any action that reduces uncertainty in the future situation of the foreign exchange market can be effective in reducing the negative effects on housing supply and demand. Also, the results of model estimation show that the outbreak of Corona virus has acted as a shock and increased housing prices in Tehran.
international trading
Abolfazl Shahabadi; Farideh Arefkhani; Maryam Aliyari
Abstract
Migration is a global phenomenon that is driven by a variety of reasons, which can be categorized as push and pull factors. Push factors refer to negative circumstances that compel individuals to leave their country of origin and seek a better life elsewhere. In contrast, pull factors are positive conditions ...
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Migration is a global phenomenon that is driven by a variety of reasons, which can be categorized as push and pull factors. Push factors refer to negative circumstances that compel individuals to leave their country of origin and seek a better life elsewhere. In contrast, pull factors are positive conditions that attract individuals to a particular destination. These may include better job opportunities, greater security, better healthcare, and improved educational opportunities. It is important to note that the push and pull factors that influence migration can vary depending on an individual’s characteristics.In recent decades, one of the most significant developments in migration in developing countries has been the increasing participation of women in migration flows, including their growing independent migration to developed countries. Women represent a significant portion of human capital in these communities, so their involuntary migration can have negative impacts on the development process. It is thus crucial to identify and understand the underlying factors of women’s migration, which can inform appropriate policies to address the issue. The present study used experimental data from 28 developing countries and the generalized method of moments (GMM) to examine the interactive effect of globalization and entrepreneurship on women’s international migration during 2011–2020. The results indicated that improving women’s entrepreneurial conditions has a significantly negative impact on international migration, while increasing the level of education and poverty index can have a significantly positive impact. However, the social, political, and economic aspects of globalization moderate the negative effect of entrepreneurship on women’s international migration. In other words, with the reduction of barriers and geographical boundaries, women are more willing to engage in entrepreneurship and gain new job experiences in a different country. Moreover, improving the index of gender equality and individual freedoms in the country can have a significantly negative effect on the process of international migration of women. Policymakers can reduce migration by improving gender equality and individual freedoms, revising laws and regulations related to women’s business space, and supporting entrepreneurship.IntroductionIt is crucial to understand the gender complexities surrounding women’s international migration to maximize the benefits of migration for women— who constitute half of the migrant population—and to minimize its socio-economic costs for them, their families, and their countries of origin. This understanding can also help prevent negative consequences in immigration destinations. Women often migrate internationally to escape social restrictions or to improve their families’ living conditions and provide a better prospect for their children. However, excessive migration, especially among young women with high education and skills who are in their reproductive age, can have dangerous consequences, such as exacerbating the demographic crisis, destabilizing the family foundation, and reducing economic growth at the national level.The history of independent international migration of women, separate from men and families, only dates back to the last few decades. Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of the reasons behind this phenomenon requires consideration of the new and emerging variables affecting human society and women’s lives. One such variable is globalization, which eliminates geographical borders and allows for the free flow of ideas, goods, services, and capital.In addition to eliminating geographical borders, globalization has facilitated the movement of people and labor between different countries, which has also affected women’s international migration. In addition to eliminating geographical borders, globalization has facilitated the movement of people and labor between different countries, which has also affected women’s international migration. Furthermore, the growth of women’s economic participation and entrepreneurship has increased their material independence, which has influenced their international migration. Finally, increasing the degree of social, economic, and political globalization of countries by providing the ground for women’s entrepreneurship can also affect their international migration.The structural approach emphasizes that women’s migration is influenced by a variety of factors, each with varying degrees of effectiveness. Moreover, the economic, social, and political structures of the host society play a significant role in women’s decision-making regarding international migration. Women’s income and financial independence are crucial factors in their decision to migrate, which is directly influenced by women’s entrepreneurship. In fact, entrepreneurial power enables women to take advantage of opportunities in different parts of the world. Entrepreneurship is the basic driver of social health and wealth and a powerful engine of economic growth that promotes the necessity of innovation. Entrepreneurship is not only necessary to take advantage of new opportunities, improve productivity, and create employment but also to address some of the biggest challenges of society (Women’s Entrepreneurship Report, 2021). Innovative women entrepreneurs bring new solutions to the market with new sources of value that are not provided by competitors. International entrepreneurs outside their national borders also contribute to the global competitiveness of their country’s economy.Materials and MethodsThe study used multivariate regression analysis, a panel data approach, the generalized method of moments (GMM), and Stata software to estimate the interactive effect of globalization and entrepreneurship on women’s international migration. The statistical population of the study consisted of 28 developing countries used as the study sample. The model included the women’s international migration index as the dependent variable, while social, political, and economic globalization, women’s education, economic misery index, gender equality, and individual freedoms were considered as explanatory variables and effective factors of women’s migration.Results and DiscussionThe research model utilized in this study is a panel data type, which provides a more efficient estimation by limiting the problem of heterogeneity of variance, reducing collinearity between variables, and increasing the degree of freedom compared to cross-sectional data and time series (Baltaji, 2005). In addition, the present research model can be considered as dynamic according to De Brau (2019) and Sultana and Fatima (2017), where the dependent variable intercept appears as an explanatory variable on the right side of the equation. The mathematical expression of the model is as follows: The dependent variable of the model is International Migration of Women (MWit), and the explanatory variables include social (SGit), political (PGit), and economic (EGit) globalization, Women’s Entrepreneurship (WENTit), Women’s Education (WEDUit), Economic Misery index (EMit), Gender Equality (GEit), and Personal Freedoms (PFit).This research used a dynamic panel data model in which the dependent variable appears as an explanatory variable with an interval on the right side, a correlation is created between the disturbance component and the mentioned variable, and the estimation results are skewed. Therefore, the GMM was used to estimate the variables. This method does not require detailed information on the distribution of disturbance sentences, based on the assumption that the disturbance sentences in equations with a set of instrumental variables are not correlated. Two tests were conducted to ensure the suitability of GMM for model estimation. The Sargan test was used to test the validity of instrumental variables. A Sargan statistical probability value greater than 5% indicates the non-correlation of the instruments with the disturbance components, and hence, the instruments used in the estimation are valid. Second, the first-order AR(1) and second-order AR(2) residual correlation tests were employed. The results indicated that there is first-order serial correlation in all cases of estimation of disturbance sentences, but there is not second-order serial correlation or clear distortion. Table 1. Estimation results of the research modelSecond StateFirst StateDependent variable: International migration of woment StatisticCoefficientt StatisticCoefficientExplanatory Variables▼6/0060/1876/0430/192LnIMW (-1)------3/4610/158LnSG------2/4120/035LnPG------3/9560/163LnEG-------4/208-0/179LnWENT3/7180/102------LnSG*WENT2/2560/061------LnPG*WENT3/4800/147------LnEG*WENT3/1140/2243/1650/231LnWEDU2/0170/0612/0260/058LnEM-5/512-0/346-5/387-0/351LnGE-4/968-0/186-4/914-0/190LnPF0/6126/1750/6086/03Sargan test statistic0/0000/0530/0000/057AR(1)0/7030/310/6910/30AR(2)228228Number of obs88Number of group2828Obs per groupConclusionAs economic, social, and political globalization increased in selected countries, so did the migration of women. The dissolution of geographical borders, the inability of developing economies to compete with developed counterparts, the disappearance of subcultures, and the familiarity of women with the culture and language of the destination countries all contributed to the increase in women’s international migration. Moreover, extroversion in foreign policy and the conclusion of understandings and bilateral/multilateral agreements of regional and international organizations for regular, easy, quick, and low-cost legal migration procedures also play a role in this context. The increasing trend of migration of skilled and expert women from developing countries to developed countries often results in improved employment opportunities, greater material benefits, and higher social status for these women.The establishment of entrepreneurship as a viable career path for women, along with equal business opportunities as men, and the ability to implement women’s creative plans and ideas in developing countries, could lead to their strong presence as valuable members of society. This, in turn, would strengthen women’s self-confidence and motivation to migrate, while also reducing the push factors for emigration.Gender equality in the home country can increase women’s hope of achieving a better life and reduce their desire to migrate abroad. In addition, individual freedoms in the home country can strengthen women’s desire to stay and work towards achieving greater freedom and a more liberal culture that aligns with their desires and aspirations. Improving the educational system, such as a one percent increase in enrollment in the third middle school, is an important factor in promoting social mobility for women since it provides opportunities for the development of individual talents, higher income, better social status, and improved living conditions, which can encourage women to migrate. Other factors leading to an increase in women’s migration include the decline in economic performance, economic difficulties, and a rise in the misery index in the home country, along with the expectation of a better situation in destination countries.The interactive effect of globalization and entrepreneurial environment on women’s international migration in the selected countries was found to be significantly positive. However, the lack of positive and constructive effects of social, political, and economic globalization on women’s entrepreneurship has moderated the reducing effect of entrepreneurship on international migration. Globalization has actually made it more likely for women entrepreneurs to seek business opportunities abroad, thus increasing their migration.
Financial Economics
Gholamhossein Golarzi; Mahnaz Khorasani
Abstract
The exchange rate, as a fundamental variable, alongside other economic variables, has a significant impact on stock returns. Therefore, this study has investigated the effects of the exchange rate and its fluctuations on the pharmaceutical industry's stock returns through linear and nonlinear models ...
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The exchange rate, as a fundamental variable, alongside other economic variables, has a significant impact on stock returns. Therefore, this study has investigated the effects of the exchange rate and its fluctuations on the pharmaceutical industry's stock returns through linear and nonlinear models during the years 2005 to 2021. In this research, first, the exchange rate fluctuations were modeled using the GARCH model. Then, the symmetrical and asymmetrical effects of the exchange rate and its fluctuations, along with the macroeconomic control variables including the healthcare consumer price index, oil price, and industry-specific control variables including asset return ratio, asset turnover ratio, and debt ratio as well as the COVID-19 dummy variable, were investigated on the return of the pharmaceutical industry stock using both linear ARDL and nonlinear NARDL models. The study shows that in both the short and long term, the impact of the exchange rate on pharmaceutical industry stock returns is greater than the impact of exchange rate fluctuations. Additionally, negative shocks of the exchange rate and its fluctuations have a negative relationship with the pharmaceutical industry's stock returns, while positive shocks of the exchange rate and its fluctuations have a positive effect on the pharmaceutical industry's stock return. The study's findings suggest that the impact of positive and negative shocks of the exchange rate and its fluctuations have asymmetric effects on the return of pharmaceutical industry stock. Results show that control variables and COVID-19 have significant effects on pharmaceutical industry stock returns in linear and nonlinear models.1.IntroductionPharmaceuticals, as a strategically vital industry, can significantly contribute to a country’s economic growth and the enhancement of public health. However, a major challenge faced by this industry in Iran is its heavy dependence on imported raw materials and essential machinery, with nearly 60% of the required raw materials being sourced through imports. The pharmaceutical sector in Iran is particularly vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations, given its high dependency on foreign currency. Consequently, the exchange rate and its fluctuations emerge as determining factors influencing the profitability and stock returns of companies operating in this sector. Divergent perspectives exist regarding how exchange rate fluctuations impact stock returns, with some studies asserting a positive correlation, others a negative one, and some maintaining a neutral stance. Since there is no consensus on the precise nature of the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and stock returns, especially within the pharmaceutical sector, the present research tried to investigate and compare the effects of exchange rate and its fluctuations on stock returns in the pharmaceutical industry.2.Materials and MethodsUsing linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag models (i.e., ARDL and NARDL), the study examined both the symmetrical and asymmetrical effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the return of pharmaceutical industry stocks during 2005 to 2021. The research also considered macroeconomic control variables, including healthcare consumer price index, oil price, COVID–19 dummy variable, and the variables specific to the pharmaceutical industry (e.g., asset return ratios, turnover ratios, and debt ratios). First, the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model was employed to model exchange rate fluctuations. The long-term linear equation for the return of pharmaceutical industry stocks can be defined as follows:(1) Also, the long-term nonlinear equation is defined as follows:(2) 3.Results and DiscussionThe research findings reveal that, in the short-term period and based on the linear ARDL model, the exchange rate significantly affects the return of the pharmaceutical industry stocks, with exchange rate fluctuations also causing a significant negative impact on stock returns. Moreover, the analysis of the long-term coefficient estimates from the linear ARDL model suggests a positive correlation between the exchange rate and pharmaceutical industry stock returns. Consequently, the results imply that an increase in the exchange rate can boost the competitive power and stock returns of pharmaceutical companies. However, in the long run, exchange rate fluctuations can have a detrimental effect due to heightened uncertainty in the stock market, dissuading investors from engaging in this industry. Additionally, the study indicates that an increase in oil prices results in a decrease in pharmaceutical industry returns, as investors seek profits in alternative markets. Inflation, too, negatively affects pharmaceutical industry stock returns, as heightened inflation fosters uncertainty, reducing investor inclination toward pharmaceutical stocks. Furthermore, the research findings highlight that various factors such as pharmaceutical industry asset returns, asset turnover, debt levels, and the dummy variable of COVID–19 positively impact pharmaceutical industry returns.The results obtained from the nonlinear NARDL model showed that both short-term and long-term negative shocks in the exchange rate and its fluctuations significantly decrease the stock returns of the pharmaceutical industry. In contrast, positive shocks in the exchange rate and its fluctuations positively affect the stock returns of the pharmaceutical industry. Hence, it can be concluded that the exchange rate and its fluctuations have an asymmetrical effect on pharmaceutical industry stock returns in Iran. Unlike the linear ARDL model, the results of the nonlinear NARDL model indicated that inflation and debt levels do not exert significant impact on pharmaceutical industry stock returns in the long run. Additionally, impact of oil prices on pharmaceutical industry returns is significantly negative in the long run, while pharmaceutical asset returns, asset turnover, and the dummy variable of COVID–19 contribute to an increase in pharmaceutical industry returns in Iran.4.ConclusionConcerning the importance of the pharmaceutical industry and the influence of the exchange rate on the stock returns in the Iranian stock market, the present research used ARDL and NARDL models to examine both the linear and nonlinear effects of exchange rate and its fluctuations on pharmaceutical industry stock returns during 2005–2021 in Iran. The research results indicated that, in both the short and long term, the impact of exchange rate is more significant than the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the returns of pharmaceutical industry stocks. According to the findings, negative shocks to the exchange rate and its fluctuations can lead to a decrease in the returns of pharmaceutical industry stocks, while positive shocks result in an increase. The results suggest an asymmetrical impact of positive and negative exchange rate shocks and its fluctuations on pharmaceutical industry stock returns. In both linear and nonlinear models, the control variables of the study, along with the COVID–19 as the dummy variable, have significant impact in on pharmaceutical industry stock returns. In sum, the findings indicated a significant relationship between the exchange rate and its fluctuations and pharmaceutical industry returns in Iran. However, the impact of exchange rate and its fluctuations on pharmaceutical industry proves to be heterogeneous. It is thus recommended that investors take note of the differing results of linear and nonlinear models and the asymmetric effects of variables, utilizing modern financial engineering instruments to implement appropriate risk-hedging strategies against exchange rate fluctuations.
