Ali Hassan Zadeh
Volume 2, 4&5(Spring and Summer) , April 2000, , Pages 130-184
Abstract
This paper tries to analyse the structural changes of the Iranian economy during 1969-1988.
For this purpose the Input - Output tables of 1969, 1974, 1984and 1988 have been used. The original tables were at current prices and therefore could not be used to quantify the structural changes of ...
Read More
This paper tries to analyse the structural changes of the Iranian economy during 1969-1988.
For this purpose the Input - Output tables of 1969, 1974, 1984and 1988 have been used. The original tables were at current prices and therefore could not be used to quantify the structural changes of the Iranian economy in real term. For this purpose, after making sectoral comparisons, and taking the year 1974 as the base year, all the tables have been deflated by using the double deflation methods.
Ziba Hojati; Ali Reza Eghbali; Hamid Reza Hallafi
Volume 7, Issue 22 , April 2005, , Pages 133-155
Abstract
The link between public and private investment and their effects on each other investigated by many economists in the past. In this study, we investigate the effects of some economic variables on private investment. These variables are different types of government expenses (current and development fund).
...
Read More
The link between public and private investment and their effects on each other investigated by many economists in the past. In this study, we investigate the effects of some economic variables on private investment. These variables are different types of government expenses (current and development fund).
The results suggest that budget deficit leads to expansion of private investment and there is a time-lag for this effect. We use ARDL Technique and the period of study is 1963-2001
Ezatollah Abbasian; Mahdi Moradpour Oladi; Vahid Abbasiuon
Volume 12, Issue 36 , October 2008, , Pages 135-152
Abstract
This paper examines the influence of macroeconomicvariables on stock market equity valuesin Tehran Stock Exchange Market. We use the Tehran Stock Exchange Market all share price index to represent the stock market and (a) moneysupply, (b) interest rate, (c) consumer price index (as a measure of inflation), ...
Read More
This paper examines the influence of macroeconomicvariables on stock market equity valuesin Tehran Stock Exchange Market. We use the Tehran Stock Exchange Market all share price index to represent the stock market and (a) moneysupply, (b) interest rate, (c) consumer price index (as a measure of inflation), (d) exchangerate and (e) trade balance as macroeconomic variables. We use the data quarterly data for the above variables for the 20 quarterly periods from Farvardin 1377 to Esfand 1384 employinga battery of tests, which include unit roots,cointegration, vector error correction models (VECM), impulse response functions (IRFs) and variancedecompositions (VDCs). These tests examineboth long-run and short-run relationships between the stockmarket index and the economic variables.The VECM analyses provides some support for the argument that the lagged values of macroeconomic variableshave a significant influence on the stock market. Both VDC and IRF analyses reveal thatshocks to economic variables explained onlya minority of the forecast variance error of the market index and the effects do not persist for verylong.
Abbas Seyyedi Wiyand; Sayyed Ebrahim Husseiny nasab
Volume 6, Issue 21 , February 2005, , Pages 135-161
Abstract
This study analyzes the relationship between the household's demand for formal services and their close substitutes in the informal economy (including do-it-yourself activities). The tax wedge is included in the analysis as an explanatory variable, which is used as a proxy for the ratio of the formal ...
Read More
This study analyzes the relationship between the household's demand for formal services and their close substitutes in the informal economy (including do-it-yourself activities). The tax wedge is included in the analysis as an explanatory variable, which is used as a proxy for the ratio of the formal services prices to the price in the informal market. Using the Iranian macroeconomic time-series data, the Johanson–Juselius cointegration method and error correction model are applied to estimate the demand, and then the long-run price elasticities and tax wedge elasticities calculated. The structural changes due to economic shocks are examined by the estimated model.
Akbar Komijani; hadi arabi; Mohammad Esmaeil Tavassoli
Volume 17, Issue 51 , July 2012, , Pages 137-155
Abstract
This paper deals with the nature and function of money in conventional (western) theory. This is also an important issue for Islamic economists. In conventional theories money can be categorized in two major forms; Money as a commodity (metalism), and money as a claim (chartalism). This paper argues ...
Read More
This paper deals with the nature and function of money in conventional (western) theory. This is also an important issue for Islamic economists. In conventional theories money can be categorized in two major forms; Money as a commodity (metalism), and money as a claim (chartalism). This paper argues that conventional theory on money is not fully satisfactory on the role and function of money in either of its theoreizing forms. It examines the flaws and short comings of money in all its forms and concepts and calls for new concepts in theoreizing within Islamic paradigm of economic thought.
Nader Mehregan; Ruholah Rezaee
Volume 13, Issue 39 , July 2009, , Pages 137-146
Abstract
The world has experienced dramatic growth of population during 5 past years. Nowadays, demographic changes have been identified as one of key factors in development process. In this paper, the effect of age structure of population on economic growth has been examined. To do this, data on 171 countries ...
Read More
The world has experienced dramatic growth of population during 5 past years. Nowadays, demographic changes have been identified as one of key factors in development process. In this paper, the effect of age structure of population on economic growth has been examined. To do this, data on 171 countries has been used over period 1966-2004. The results indicate the significant effect of demographic variables on economic growth. Based on results, population growth , the ratio of people under 15 years old to whole population , dependency ratio of young people have negative effect and ratio of people 15-64 years old to whole population, ratio of people over 65 years old to whole population, dependency ratio of elderly people have positive impact on economic growth. The growth rates of different age groups have different effects on economic growth so that the growth rate of people years under 15 years old has the biggest effect and growth rate of active people (15-64 years old) has the smallest effect on economic growth.
Alireza Amini; Zohre Hejazi Azad
Volume 9, Issue 30 , April 2007, , Pages 137-163
Abstract
Labor force and its quality (human capital) have made large contribution to economic growth and development in many countries. Health is also considered as a way to improve both labor quality and productivity. Present research aims to investigate and analyze the effect of health on labor productivity ...
Read More
Labor force and its quality (human capital) have made large contribution to economic growth and development in many countries. Health is also considered as a way to improve both labor quality and productivity. Present research aims to investigate and analyze the effect of health on labor productivity for the period 1976-2004.
The ARDL econometric model used in this study incorporates variables such as life expectancy as a proxy for health, per capita physical capital, and the actual to potential output ratio as the most influential factors on labor productivity.
The results indicate that about 38.2% of labor productivity growth is contributed by an increase in health. In addition, our result show that in fourth plan (2005-2009), labor productivity growth will be about 2% less than the figure envisaged in the plan.
Ali Asghar Banouei; Fatemeh Bazzazan; Mehdi Karami
Volume 8, Issue 29 , February 2007, , Pages 143-170
Abstract
The issue of the Spatial Economic Dimensions (SED) in generating regional Input-Output Coefficients (RIOC) has been well documented and recognized in the regional analysis since the 1950s. However, this issue has been overlooked in Iran.
In this article, we focus on two main aspects: First, ...
Read More
The issue of the Spatial Economic Dimensions (SED) in generating regional Input-Output Coefficients (RIOC) has been well documented and recognized in the regional analysis since the 1950s. However, this issue has been overlooked in Iran.
In this article, we focus on two main aspects: First, we highlight the factors of SED in generating RIOCs, and the second we quantitatively analyze the relationship between them. To this end, we use seven non-survey location quotient methods in generating RIOCs for 28 provinces. The results portray that if the specialized (or local) sector is considered as an additional factor, the relation between SED and RIOC can be meaningful.
Bizhan Safavi
Volume 6, Issue 19 , July 2004, , Pages 143-167
Abstract
This paper investigates the potential of industrial sector in generating indirect employment in its sub sectors. To determine the ability of Job creation, the demand for labor function in each sub sector is estimated, augmented by the demand for Labor growth matrix using the ISIC code. Then, the ...
Read More
This paper investigates the potential of industrial sector in generating indirect employment in its sub sectors. To determine the ability of Job creation, the demand for labor function in each sub sector is estimated, augmented by the demand for Labor growth matrix using the ISIC code. Then, the long term relation between employment and capital stock is tested Using ARDL and Johansen Method. Finally, for ranking indirect employment generating potential, Input-Output accounting and semi social accounting frame work are used. Results show that clothing and leather, and textile sub sectors, with 13 and 12 employee respectively, have the largest employment coefficient, and therefore, the greatest employment generating potential. The direct employment coefficients for these sub sectors are the largest, showing the larger potentials to create employment.
Seyed safdar Hoseini; Habib Shahbazi; Akram Abasifar
Volume 10, Issue 34 , April 2008, , Pages 145-160
Abstract
Iran imports more than one third of its sugar consumption. In this paper, we test for market power in the Iranian sugar imports market using NewEmpirical Industrial Organization (NEIO) theory. We use the data for the Iranian sugar market for the period 1974-2004 to estimate the degree of the market ...
Read More
Iran imports more than one third of its sugar consumption. In this paper, we test for market power in the Iranian sugar imports market using NewEmpirical Industrial Organization (NEIO) theory. We use the data for the Iranian sugar market for the period 1974-2004 to estimate the degree of the market power. Our results indicate that market power parameter in the Iran sugar imports market is 0.004. This reveales that the sugar imports market for Iran is competitive, and the behavior of price determination in this market is much closer to price taker than collusion.
Karim Azarbaijani; Seyed Komail Tayyebi; Asghar Hagh Shenas
Volume 7, Issue 24 , October 2005, , Pages 145-169
Abstract
The importance of intra-industry trade (IIT) is in the conjunction with its role in exploring trade potentials in all countries, and interpreting the trade relations among themselves. This paper strikes to calculate the extent of Iran’s IIT using Gruble and Lloyd index (G-L) during 1998-2002, while ...
Read More
The importance of intra-industry trade (IIT) is in the conjunction with its role in exploring trade potentials in all countries, and interpreting the trade relations among themselves. This paper strikes to calculate the extent of Iran’s IIT using Gruble and Lloyd index (G-L) during 1998-2002, while a relevant test indicates that there is no significant difference between G-L method and other IIT measurements for the results obtained. This study has focused on analyzing two different commodity groups. First, IIT index has been measured at the 5-digit level of the ISIC, so that the computed IIT on average for 1998 and 2002 are 17.14 and 27.82 percent, respectively. Second, the IIT at the 6- digit level of the HS[1] for these years are calculated as about 9.28 and 14.2 percent, respectively. The latter is much different from the former calculation in which its ratio is higher than that of the later classification even though both results have a similar direction in changes. Additionally, the paper has calculated the regional IIT index to evaluate the position of Iran’s trade partners in the selected trading blocks. The results reveal that Iran’s IIT has the most similarity and convergence with the OIC[2] implying the realization of the Islamic Common Market (ICM). 1. Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System (HS) 2. Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC)
Reza Tehrani; Mohammad Reza Pourebrahimi
Volume 13, Issue 40 , October 2009, , Pages 149-170
Abstract
The present research, analyzses the forecasting performance of a variety of conditional and non-conditional models of TEDPIX volatility at the daily frequencies under three performance criteria: namely Tthe root mean square error (RMSE), the mean absolute error (MAE) and the Theil index. ...
Read More
The present research, analyzses the forecasting performance of a variety of conditional and non-conditional models of TEDPIX volatility at the daily frequencies under three performance criteria: namely Tthe root mean square error (RMSE), the mean absolute error (MAE) and the Theil index. Under RMSE and Theil criteria, results show MA250, exponential smoothing, and CGARCH models haved better performance among between non conditional and conditional models respectively. Comparing forecasting performance of conditional and non conditional models shows that MA250 and ES models had better performance relative to conditional models. Other results of the study also reveal that according to conditional volatility models (except PARCH) there is a significant relationship between behavior of volatility and the targeted volatility range This result cannot be approved by ARMA. change of the price control whereas ARMA model rejects it. Furthermore, change of the time period of return measurement (daily and monthly) affects behavior of volatilitvolatility varies in different return.
Ali Emami Meibodi; Ehsan Haghdoost; Javad Pakdin
Volume 14, Issue 42 , April 2010, , Pages 149-167
Abstract
The increased growth of oil consumption, particularly in developing countries, has turned oil into a strategic commodity in the world. Therefore, identifying factors affecting supply and demand in oil market and the study of price changes are of a great importance. In this article, we have reconsidered ...
Read More
The increased growth of oil consumption, particularly in developing countries, has turned oil into a strategic commodity in the world. Therefore, identifying factors affecting supply and demand in oil market and the study of price changes are of a great importance. In this article, we have reconsidered the Hotelling model for optimal extraction of non-renewal recourses with regard to the resource effects and technological advances. The cost and demand functions for non-renewable resources are set up in a way to find a stable growth in a system of simultaneous equations of supply and demand. We have utilized data from OPEC in the period 1980- 2006 to test the model and the functions of supply and demand in a system of simultaneous equations using a 3SLS method. The estimation results indicate that the growth rate of the oil price has remained unchangned over rather a long period of time, which is consistent with the theoretical outcomes predicted by the model.
Gholamhossein Parivash; Mohammad Bakhshoodeh
Volume 9, Issue 31 , July 2007, , Pages 151-163
Abstract
The main objective of this study is to assess the effects of monetarypolicies on consumption behaviors of rural households in Iran, using the Euler equations and OLS and IV(Instrumental Variable) estimation methods. Results show that there is no relationship between consumption growth of rural households ...
Read More
The main objective of this study is to assess the effects of monetarypolicies on consumption behaviors of rural households in Iran, using the Euler equations and OLS and IV(Instrumental Variable) estimation methods. Results show that there is no relationship between consumption growth of rural households and interest rate. In other words, there are no interactions between monetary policies and rural households' consumption. Also, rural consumption was limited more by credit availability than interest rate. Furthermore, precautionary savings is noticeable among rural households.
Ahmad Mohammadi
Abstract
This paper aims to evaluate the reaction of petrochemical and petroleum products markets (traded on the Iran Mercantile Exchange) to the removal of price ceilings imposed on it. After the implementation of targeted subsidies project and respective currency fluctuations in Iran, government imposed price ...
Read More
This paper aims to evaluate the reaction of petrochemical and petroleum products markets (traded on the Iran Mercantile Exchange) to the removal of price ceilings imposed on it. After the implementation of targeted subsidies project and respective currency fluctuations in Iran, government imposed price controls on petrochemical market to prevent inflationary pressures of those events. Analysis of available data shows that after the price adjustment and the removal of price ceilings, the quantity of products supplied has increased and the quantity of products demanded has decreased. In particular, the demand for polymer and chemical products has decreased sharply by an amount of 80 and 57 percent respectively. Moreover, the share of speculative trading has decreased while the share of competitive trading has increased. Comparing the prices discovered in Iran Mercantile Exchange and the black market prices shows that a fraction of consumers have purchased the required raw materials from black market. The results of panel data model show that the removal of the price ceilings has had a significant negative effect on the excess demand in the petrochemical and petroleum markets: the excess demand (more than 3 thousand tones) has turned into an excess supply (156 tones). Removing the price limits has had the greatest impact on polymer products market where an excess demand of 4.76 thousand tones has turned into an excess supply of 29 tones. On the whole, the results of this paper show that the price ceiling policy had significant effects and it has had considerable distortionary effects on the market.
Ali Hossein Samadi
Volume 6, Issue 20 , October 2004, , Pages 157-187
Abstract
The main purpose of this paper is to critically review the studies applied the AIDS model to study of the Iranian demand for different goods and services. The survey finds that the results obtained by these studies are not reliable. These studies use the unsuitable linear approximation index, inappropriate ...
Read More
The main purpose of this paper is to critically review the studies applied the AIDS model to study of the Iranian demand for different goods and services. The survey finds that the results obtained by these studies are not reliable. These studies use the unsuitable linear approximation index, inappropriate estimation methods and computation formula for estimating own-price elasticity. Addressing those problems, we analyze the consumer behavior using the demand system in the rural and urban areas of the Kohkilouye - and – Bouyerahmad province of Iran.
Khosrow Piraee,; Hosein Kazemi
Volume 6, Issue 18 , April 2004, , Pages 157-178
Abstract
The main objective in this paper is twofold: measuring technical efficiency and indicating its determinant factors for the Iranian insurance companies. We utilize stochastic frontier function and two alternative models: the “ error component frontier ”model proposed by Battes and Coelli (1992) ...
Read More
The main objective in this paper is twofold: measuring technical efficiency and indicating its determinant factors for the Iranian insurance companies. We utilize stochastic frontier function and two alternative models: the “ error component frontier ”model proposed by Battes and Coelli (1992) and ”technical inefficiency effect” model proposed by Battes and Coelli(1995) . the parameters of both models are estimated by maximum likelihood method. Earned premium and investment income selected as outputs of insurance industry. Panel data of Iran, Asia, Alborz and Dana –the four insurance companies-over 10 years,(1922-2001); used to measure their technical efficiencies. The findings of this paper show that technical efficiency is equal to 79.30% in error component model and 81.71% in technical inefficiency model from earned premium point of view and 58.51% in error component model and 59.64% in technical inefficiency model from investment income point of view. Further results indicated that technical efficiency has direct relation with respect ratio of the number of branches located in Tehran, total assets, ratio of life insurance premium, ratio of non- life insurance premium and inverse relation with respect to ratio of employees qualified with bachelor’s degree.
Teimour Mohamadi
Volume 18, Issue 55 , July 2013, , Pages 159-160
Mohamad Naghi Nazarpoor; Mohamadreza Yousefi; Meysam Haghighi
Volume 17, Issue 53 , February 2013, , Pages 159-185
Abstract
Considering the prohibition of riba (Usury), and consequently the impossibility of using interest based bonds, they can not utilized as policy tool in the Usury-Free Banking System. As a result the Open Market Operations as specified by buying and selling interest-based bonds is not applicable ...
Read More
Considering the prohibition of riba (Usury), and consequently the impossibility of using interest based bonds, they can not utilized as policy tool in the Usury-Free Banking System. As a result the Open Market Operations as specified by buying and selling interest-based bonds is not applicable in this system. Thereby virtually the oldest and best-known, and yet the most important tool of monetary policy for controling liquidity in the economy is excluded from the set of policy tools of the central bank.. Instead there are certain replacement securities such as “Participatory Bonds”, “Istisna securities” etc. devised by Moslem economists to be utilized as a substitute for the Open Market Operations in a non-usury banking system .The current paper using a descriptive methodology attempts to analyz the hypothesis that: “utilization of “Negotiable Certificates of Deposit”, as a compliment for bonds, Sukuk and other securities Provides Central Bank with alternative basis for policy tools in liquidity control and monetary management, within the framework of the Usury-Free Banking System, and therefore to some extent compensate for the absence of traditional bonds in monetary policy tools." Finally it is concluded that “Negotiable Certificates of Deposit” as a means of supplementing other securities, can be used in open market operations in a non-usury banking, enabling central bank to buy and sell securities through open market operations in the secondary market, This can effectively enable the monetary authority to manage the liquidity and enforce the monetary policy.
Atefeh Taklif
Volume 17, Issue 50 , April 2012, , Pages 159-177
Abstract
Exchange-traded derivatives, i.e., futures and options are the most powerful financial instruments in financial markets for hedging policies aimed at managing the price risks which are originated in physical markets as well as for speculative strategies. After a brief reference to the nature of ...
Read More
Exchange-traded derivatives, i.e., futures and options are the most powerful financial instruments in financial markets for hedging policies aimed at managing the price risks which are originated in physical markets as well as for speculative strategies. After a brief reference to the nature of these instruments, we have shown in this paper that derivatives, which are basically advanced innovations in financial studies, can be extremely risky and complex in practice, hence may be considered as a constant threat to international financial stability. Despite the presupposition of financial economists that innovation is the engine of growth and “capitalism’s foundational energy”, we have concluded that the widespread application of derivatives during the past two decades together with the complexities of hedging and speculation strategies, which can be misused by financial investors, can be considered as one of the main causes of the failure in market discipline mechanism which manifested in the financial crisis of 2008 and its aftermath. The effectiveness of financial regulation is a challenging question which naturally arises in this context.
Mehdi Moradpour; Mohsen Ebrahimi; Vahid Abbasion
Volume 11, Issue 35 , July 2008, , Pages 159-176
Abstract
This paper studies the effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on private investment in Iran. We estimate the effect using a model for private investment in Iran and the time series data for the period 1977-2004. We use the GARCH method to construct an estimate of the real exchange rate uncertainty, ...
Read More
This paper studies the effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on private investment in Iran. We estimate the effect using a model for private investment in Iran and the time series data for the period 1977-2004. We use the GARCH method to construct an estimate of the real exchange rate uncertainty, and estimate the model by OLS method. The results show that the effect of uncertainty of real exchange rate on investment by private sector is significantly negative.
seyed komail tayebi; Abbas Mohammadzadeh
Volume 14, Issue 43 , July 2010, , Pages 161-187
Abstract
Capital mobility has been an important part of the economic reforms in many developing countries since the early 1990s, after realization of the benefits of decreasing capital control during 1970s. However, capital liberalization plan has caused major economic crisis in some countries making the policy ...
Read More
Capital mobility has been an important part of the economic reforms in many developing countries since the early 1990s, after realization of the benefits of decreasing capital control during 1970s. However, capital liberalization plan has caused major economic crisis in some countries making the policy makers more causios about the plan. In this study, we have used data of 70 selected developing economies over the period 1996-2005 to investigate the effect of capital control on the currency crises. Applying the probit panel data approach, the results show a significant inverse effect of capital control on currency crises in the sampling countries. Also, a higher degree of capital control is accompanied by the lower probability of currency crisis.
Iman Farjamnia; Mohsen Naseri; Sayed Mohamad Mehdi Ahmadi
Volume 9, Issue 32 , October 2007, , Pages 161-183
Abstract
Ability of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) as a powerful tool in simulation and prediction in science and engineering has made it attractive to economists. In this article, after a brief review of literature, a comparison of forecasting performance of ANN versus ARIMA is made. The data used are daily ...
Read More
Ability of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) as a powerful tool in simulation and prediction in science and engineering has made it attractive to economists. In this article, after a brief review of literature, a comparison of forecasting performance of ANN versus ARIMA is made. The data used are daily prices of oil for the period April 1983 to June 2005. In addition, sensitivity analysis is implemented for illustrating contribution of each input to the price changes in ANN models. The results show that the ANN model generates more accurate forecasts for the daily oil prices of oil than ARIMA model.
Teimur Mohammadi
Volume 16, Issue 47 , July 2011, , Pages 163-183
Abstract
Studies in applied econometrics and related disciplines are widely using time series techniques. Sound application of these techniques requires the satisfaction of their underlying assumptions. One of these techniques is ARDL Model. There are a number of examples in the published works in ...
Read More
Studies in applied econometrics and related disciplines are widely using time series techniques. Sound application of these techniques requires the satisfaction of their underlying assumptions. One of these techniques is ARDL Model. There are a number of examples in the published works in Iranian economic studies which suffers from misconceptions leading to biased and inconsistent estimates of parameters. For example, without assuring the exogeniety of the other RHS variables of the model, estimates are biased and inconsistent. Although fitting an ARDL model to exogenous and/or predetermined RHS I(0) and/or I(1) variables may seem appropriate ,however ,to continue the path leading to the extraction cointegration vectors, would be a misleading strategy. The aim of this paper is to highlight these misconceptions in the application of ARDL technique. To this end, after a theoretical survey of the concept, a dynamic simultaneous equation model (DSEM) of macroeconomic equations is introduced and simulated. The simulated series are used to estimate various versions of the model including VAR, ARDL, DSEM, VECM . Then the correct and incorrect application of ARDL model is specified by using two scenarios.
Mohammad Ali Motafakker Azad; Reza Ranjpour; Seyed Kamal Sadeghi; Gholamhosein Rahnomay Garamaleki
Volume 16, Issue 48 , October 2011, , Pages 165-192
Abstract
In this study, the effect of internal R&D expenditures and technology imports on value added of Iranian large and medium industries is investigated over the period of 1994-2006. For this purpose, an endogenous growth model is used in which production is a function of employment, capital stock, internal ...
Read More
In this study, the effect of internal R&D expenditures and technology imports on value added of Iranian large and medium industries is investigated over the period of 1994-2006. For this purpose, an endogenous growth model is used in which production is a function of employment, capital stock, internal R&D expenditures and capital-intermediate goods imports. We estimate this model for 21 industrial groups by applying panel data approach. The results indicate that internal R&D expenditures and capital-intermediate imports have a significant positive effect on value added of Iranian large and medium industries during the mentioned period. Therefore, the policy recommendations of this study are supporting R&D activities of large and medium industries by government and expanding commercial relation with industrial countries and technology leaders.
