Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 Ph.D. Student in Monetary economy, Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences and Economics, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences and Economics, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences and Economics, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
Acquiring information about expectations is difficult as individuals' beliefs are unobservable. Thus, how expectation forms and how to model expectation is an open question in economic modelling that has been addressed recently by experimental economics. In this article, in order to identify expectations, we examine the behaviour of subjects when encountering new exchange rates in an experiment. Furthermore, in this experiment, differences of expectation formation among participants and their relation to cognitive abilities are analysed. To motivate people, incentive payments are used. In our setting, while the rational expectation hypothesis is not supported, the adaptive expectation is not rejected. Agents form their expectations in the same way regardless of their cognitive ability. In this context, individuals overreact to the new quantity of exchange rate which is assumed as a noisy perception. This finding is considered as evidence of emotional behaviours in the exchange market.
Keywords
Main Subjects
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