Econometrics
Morteza Khorsandi; Teymor Mohammadi; Hamidreza Arbab; Emadodin Sakhaei
Abstract
Macroeconomic policy analysis and risk management require taking account of the increasing interdependencies across markets and economies. National economic issues need to be considered from global as well as domestic perspectives. This invariably means that many different channels of transmission must ...
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Macroeconomic policy analysis and risk management require taking account of the increasing interdependencies across markets and economies. National economic issues need to be considered from global as well as domestic perspectives. This invariably means that many different channels of transmission must be taken into account. This paper investigates the effect of global economic shocks on Iran’s economy. The Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model for the first quarter of 1990 to the fourth quarter of 2019 is used for 34 countries, which cover about 90% of world gross domestic products. According to previous studies and the results of this study, it is found that only the shocks of the United States, China and the global shock affect the macroeconomic variables of other countries and oil prices, and as a result, the effect of these three shocks on the Iranian economy is investigated. Ceteris paribus, the results show that China's shock affects the variables of GDP and Iran's inflation: with a 1 percent increase in China's GDP, Iran's GDP increases by 0.08 percent and inflation by 1.2 percent and has no effect on interest rates. The US shock has an indirect effect on oil prices. Due to the isolation of the economy, foreign variables do not have significant effects on the Iranian macroeconomic variables. In general, Iran's economy, due to the size of the economy and the volume of trade shocks of other trading partners through the foreign trade channel do not affect the Iranian economy.
Health Economics
Soheil Roudari; Masoud Homayounifar
Abstract
The present study investigates the effect of coronavirus outbreak and exchange rate and oil price variables on the stock market index using Markov Switching model during the period 1398/11/30 – 1399/03/27. The results show that exchange rate growth has no significant effect in the high regime ...
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The present study investigates the effect of coronavirus outbreak and exchange rate and oil price variables on the stock market index using Markov Switching model during the period 1398/11/30 – 1399/03/27. The results show that exchange rate growth has no significant effect in the high regime of the stock market index and has a negative and significant impact in the low and medium regimes. The growth of oil prices has had a negative and significant effect on all stock market index regimes. Also, in the high regime of the stock market index, the prevalence and increase in the coronavirus cases will lead to a decrease in the stock market index, and on the contrary, in the low regime of the stock market index, the prevalence and increase in the coronavirus cases will increase the stock market index. In the high regime of the stock market index, the coronavirus outbreak can lead to a decrease in the stock market index and the outflow of capital from the stock market and transfer to other parallel markets such as currency and housing can occur, and speculation increases.
