Iranian Journal of Economic Research

Abstract According to the theory of macroeconomics, achieving stable equilibrium in economy is possible when exchange rate regimes are consistent with the financial and monetary policies. Besides, regulating the real rate of exchange and its relation to a known exchange rate regime, which corresponds to economic conditions, is very important to create the equilibrium This study tries to forecast an exchange rate which can guarantee the growth of non-oil exports, by emphasizing on making exchange rate regime consistent with the exchange rate on the one hand and making financial and monetary policies harmonious with devaluation of  Rial on the other hand. To this end, we have employed a VAR model to determine an appropriate exchange rate to forecast the behavior of exchange rate and other related variables over 1996-2000 (1375-79) period. In this framework, a model is worked out to can simultaneously specify the effects of financial policies, liquidity growth, inflation, and devaluation of Rial on non-oil exports within a five-year period. For this purpose, a model is presented with five endogenous and four exogenous variables. The results show that an increase in inflation cancels out the positive effects of devaluation on non-oil exports. Rial devaluation will boost the growth of non-oil exports if it is accompanied by appropriate financial policies. Therefore, if the control of government expenditures is hinged with the devaluation of Rial, it may lead to a reduction in the growth of liquidity and inflation as well as to the growth of non-oil exports.

Abstract Appropriate Industrial Location plays an important role in the success and performance of an industry. In this paper we have studied the location of industries in rural areas of Mazandaran province. We find that only four out of nine cases are in our priority lists of the study. This indicates that the present location chosen might probably be one of the main problems of these industries. Therefore, non-economic factors may have been influential in determining the Location of industry in the rural areas of the province.

Abstract Bargaining in labour markets is a prevalent process for wages negotiations and employment in which there is a particular aspect clearly apparent in agency negotiations. There is a one-to-one aspect of bargaining between firms and workers that develops into contract negotiation in labour markets. This process and the resulting wage contract, is developed further in this paper in a non-cooperative bargaining model.

Abstract The distributed lag effect of a unit change in one of the explanatory variables on the dependent variable is one of the major shortcomings of the standard linear regression model. Such a model, that specifies a causal relationship between a variable and its determinants, states that a unit change in one of the explanatory variables can result in a change in the dependent variable only during the period specified by the model. In practice, however, changes in, for example, the firm's advertisement may affect its sales over various periods. This paper aimes to develop an approach to estimate the distributed lag effects of a temporary (once -and - for - all) and a permanent (continuous) change in the explanatory variables by using information given by a cointegration model.

Abstract This paper tries to analyse the structural changes of the Iranian economy during 1969-1988. For this purpose the Input - Output tables of 1969, 1974, 1984and 1988 have been used. The original tables were at current prices and therefore could not be used to quantify the structural changes of the Iranian economy in real term. For this purpose, after making sectoral comparisons, and taking the year 1974 as the base year, all the tables have been deflated by using the double deflation methods.

Abstract Models dealing with the relation between financial Phenomena and economic growth are of Neo-Schumpeterian Growth Models. In these models, financial performance effects the sustained economic growth in two ways: the rate of capital accumulation and the affects rate of technological innovations. In this article, we use Patrick's approach to analyze the causality relation between financial development and economic growth. For our empirical work, we use VEC model, which shows that the development of stock market and the long term financial resources have positive and long term effects on economic growth. The causality relation works unilaterally from the real sector to financial development. Furthermore, the article analyzes dynamic effects of different shocks on economic growth, and the variance decomposition of GDP growth by VEC modes

Abstract This paper tries to analyse the structural changes of the Iranian economy during 1969-1988. For this purpose the Input - Output tables of 1969, 1974, 1984and 1988 have been used. The original tables were at current prices and therefore could not be used to quantify the structural changes of the Iranian economy in real term. For this purpose, after making sectoral comparisons, and taking the year 1974 as the base year, all the tables have been deflated by using the double deflation methods.