Iranian Journal of Economic Research

Forecasting Gasoline Price Using GMDH Neural Network Based on GA

Authors

Hamid Abrishami 1
Ali Moeini 2
Mohsen Mehrara 3
Mehdi Ahrari 4
Fatemeh Soleymani Kia 5

1 Professor, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran

2 Associate Professor, Faculty of Engineering, University of Tehran

3 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran

4 Research Assistant, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran

5 M A in Energy Economics, University of Tehran

Abstract
In this paper, we use GMDH neural network based on Genetic Algorithm to model and forecast the price of gasoline using two approaches; Deductive Method and Technical Analysis. The results of deductive method indicate that the accuracy of prediction could reach up to 96% and in technical analysis could reach up to 99%. Furthermore the comparison reveals that the GMDH neural networks model consistently outperforms the regression model used in this study. 

Keywords

Gasoline Price
GMDH neural network
Deductive Method
Technical analysis
Forecasting

  • Receive Date 03 May 2016
  • First Publish Date 03 May 2016

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