Authors
1 MA in Research , Researcher, monetary and banking research institute
2 Assistant Professor of Economics
Abstract
Achieving price stability is known as one of the tasks and objectives of policy makers especially in central banks. In order to implement inflation targeting policy, the information relating to the response of prices to monetary policy shocks is essential for monetary policy makers. Most studies analyze the response of aggregate price level like CPI or consumption deflator to monetary shocks. Moreover, a limited number of studies that examine the effect of monetary shocks on disaggregate prices use vector auto regression models for the analysis. The results of these studies show that some disaggregated prices increase slightly in response to a contractionary monetary shocks. This finding which is inconsistent with the standard theory is known as the "price puzzle" in literature. In this paper we use a factor Augmented VAR framework to examine the impulse response function of 12 categories of CPI to one standard error in money base growth rate in Iran. Our two main findings are: 1) monetary shocks have a lagged effect on disaggregated prices and most prices response to a monetary shock with a considerable delay. 2) There is a substantial difference amongst 12 CPI sub-categories in response to an increase in monetary base growth rate. However, the impulse response functions of disaggregated prices are not statistically significant based on bootstrap confidence interval. Contrary to existing studies based on standard VAR model, by using FAVAR approach, we also find that price responses don’t display a price puzzle in the case of Iran.
Keywords
)