This study investigated the effects of institutional Islamization on the tendency to forgive in Iran. Using quarterly data from 2012 to 2023. it employed the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to decompose institutional Islamization into positive and negative shocks to examine short- and long-run asymmetries. The findings revealed a significant asymmetric relationship. In the short run, an increase in Islamization had a positive effect on forgiveness (0.217), whereas a decrease exerted a stronger negative effect (−0.155). The long-run results confirmed that positive changes would have a substantial positive effect (0.462), compared with the negative effect of adverse shocks (–0.389). The Wald test rejected the hypothesis of symmetry in both periods. These findings suggest that reinforcing Islamic values within public institutions can promote social morality and forgiveness, whereas a decline in institutional religious values may generate more pronounced social disillusionment. Accordingly, policymakers should strengthen the religious legitimacy and ethical credibility of public institutions while closely monitoring potential declines in values in order to help sustain social capital and public trust.
Introduction
Forgiveness, as a moral foundation of human behavior, has assumed an increasingly important position in contemporary social and psychological thought. It is considered an important factor in maintaining interpersonal relationships, reducing conflict, and fostering social capital, particularly within cultural and religious contexts—as illustrated in “No Type of Forgiveness Is an Island: Divine Forgiveness, Self-Forgiveness and Interpersonal Forgiveness” (Fincham & May, 2021). As discussed by Ayoub (1997) in “Repentance and the Islamic Tradition,” the broader conception of forgiveness is closely associated with repentance, piety, and a return to divine values, and is regarded as a transcendent moral act.
Beyond the individual level, Islam has established various institutional mechanisms for promoting forgiveness through religious sermons, educational programs, devotional practices, and media content. In many Muslim societies, Islam is not merely a matter of personal belief or practice but is also embedded in official institutions and legal frameworks that actively shape citizens’ attitudes and behavior. Against this background, the relationship between institutional Islamization and the tendency to forgive in Iran is particularly significant, given the country’s distinctive institutional and economic context, characterized by international economic sanctions, fluctuations in inflation, and the COVID–19 pandemic. In this respect, the present study aimed to examine the effects of institutional Islamization on the tendency to forgive in Iran.
Materials and Methods
This study employed a quantitative research design based on the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model, using quarterly data for Iran covering the period from 2012 to 2023. The sample comprised 48 observations, selected based on the continuous availability of data for the institutional Islamization index. The dependent variable, the tendency to forgive (PHIL), was measured using the Global Forgiveness Index, which assesses forgiveness toward strangers, monetary forgiveness, and forgiveness of time—with higher values indicating greater altruism. The independent variable, institutional Islamization (IS), was measured using the Islamicity Index. The index measures the extent to which a country’s institutions are compatible with fundamental Islamic teachings across four dimensions: Islamic economy, legal and governance systems, human and political rights, and international relations. Scores range from 0 to 10, with higher scores indicating greater institutional compatibility with Islamic principles.
The control variables included GDP per capita (GDPPC), human capital (EDU) measured by the literacy rate, and social capital (SOC) measured using data from the Global Social Capital Index, the World Values Survey, and the World Bank. The NARDL model decomposed institutional Islamization into positive and negative changes to capture potential asymmetric effects. The estimation procedure comprised Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests, optimal lag-length selection based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), the Bounds test for cointegration, NARDL estimation of short- and long-run coefficients, the Wald tests for asymmetry, and CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests for parameter stability. All analyses were conducted through EViews 13.
Results and Discussion
The NARDL estimation results indicated that, in the short run, an increase in institutional Islamization (IS+) had a positive and statistically significant effect on the tendency to forgive (coefficient = 0.217, t-statistic = 2.31, p = 0.026). In contrast, a decrease in institutional Islamization (IS−) had a negative and statistically significant effect (coefficient = −0.155, t-statistic = −2.18, p = 0.033). In the long run, the positive change in institutional Islamization (IS+) had a coefficient of 0.462 (t-statistic = 2.69, p = 0.011), whereas the negative change (IS−) had a coefficient of −0.389 (t-statistic = −2.72, p = 0.010). The error correction term, ECM(−1), was −0.561 (t-statistic = −5.50, p < 0.000), indicating that approximately 56% of any deviation from the long-run equilibrium was corrected in each period.
The results for the control variables indicated that human capital (EDU) and social capital (SOC) had positive and statistically significant effects on the tendency to forgive in both the short and long run. GDP per capita (GDPPC) also had a positive effect, although its statistical significance was comparatively weaker. The model yielded an R² of 0.821, indicating that approximately 82% of the variation in the tendency to forgive was explained by the explanatory variables included in the model. The Durbin–Watson statistic was 1.91, suggesting that there was no serious evidence of autocorrelation in the residuals.
Conclusion
Using quarterly data covering the period from 2012 to 2023 and the NARDL approach, this study examined the relationship between institutional Islamization and the tendency to forgive in Iran. According to the findings, the tendency to forgive responds asymmetrically to increases and decreases in institutional Islamization, suggesting that positive and negative changes in the index have distinct effects on social behavior.
In the short run, an increase in institutional Islamization was associated with a higher tendency to forgive, whereas a decrease in institutional Islamization had a negative effect. This finding suggests that society responds more positively to improvements in Islamic institutional principles, such as economic justice, ethical market practices, and human rights. Conversely, a deterioration in these institutional dimensions is associated with a notable decline in the tendency to forgive. These findings are consistent with institutionalist and social ethics theories, which emphasize that formal institutional frameworks grounded in religious values can shape and influence citizens’ social behavior.
In the long run, similar effects were observed, with the scope and depth of these effects becoming more pronounced. As suggested by the results, sustained improvements in institutional Islamization across governance, economic, and legal structures can contribute to greater trust, stronger social cohesion, and a higher tendency to forgive. In contrast, a weakening of the institutional dimensions captured by the index— particularly those related to social justice, human rights, and governance transparency—may erode moral capital and reduce forgiving behavior over the long term.