Analyzing the Dimensions and Causal Relationships of Economic Warfare: An Application of the Fuzzy DEMATEL Method

Tahmasebi, Siamak

doi:10.22054/ijer.2026.89908.1424

Analyzing the Dimensions and Causal Relationships of Economic Warfare: An Application of the Fuzzy DEMATEL Method

Document Type : Research Paper

Author

Siamak Tahmasebi

Assistant Professor, Supreme National Defense University, Tehran, Iran

https://doi.org/10.22054/ijer.2026.89908.1424

Abstract

Economic warfare has increasingly replaced traditional forms of conflict as the primary means of exercising power in the contemporary international system. In this regard, the present study aimed to identify the key dimensions of economic warfare and examine the causal relationships among them. The research adopted an applied, exploratory approach using a mixed methods research design. In the qualitative phase, a systematic literature review was used to identify and conceptualize 13 dimensions of economic warfare. In the quantitative phase, expert opinions were collected, and the fuzzy DEMATEL technique was employed to construct and analyze the matrix of interrelationships among these dimensions. According to the findings, out of 13 dimensions, six dimensions (i.e., media–economic warfare, corridor warfare, cyber–economic warfare, currency warfare, financial warfare, and trade warfare) function as causal and enabling factors, serving as the primary drivers of the system. In contrast, the remaining seven dimensions (i.e., investment warfare, corporate warfare, technology warfare, resource warfare, energy warfare, food security warfare, and capital market warfare) were identified as effects and dependent factors, as they are primarily influenced by the causal dimensions. The main contribution of this study lies in developing a comprehensive 13-dimensional causal model of economic warfare that enhances understanding of the internal dynamics of this complex phenomenon. The proposed model provides a valuable framework for formulating effective countermeasures against economic warfare, particularly for the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Introduction
In recent decades, competition among states has increasingly shifted from direct military confrontation to the use of economic, financial, technological, and informational instruments. Within this context, economic warfare has emerged as one of the most significant means of exercising power in the international system. Governments seek to undermine the economic strength and constrain the decision-making capacity of target states through a range of measures, including financial and trade sanctions, technological restrictions, pressure on foreign exchange and capital markets, disruptions to supply chains, media and cyber warfare, and control over strategic resources and transportation corridors. From this perspective, economic warfare is not merely a collection of isolated actions; rather, it represents a complex network of interactions among economic, political, and security dimensions, whose effects simultaneously shape the performance of the national economy.
Given the experience of the Islamic Republic of Iran in confronting extensive sanctions and other forms of economic pressure, understanding the internal mechanisms of economic warfare and the interrelationships among its various dimensions has become essential for effective economic policymaking. Despite the growing body of research in this field, most existing studies have examined individual dimensions of economic warfare in isolation, while relatively few have adopted a comprehensive approach that analyzes its multiple dimensions within a unified analytical framework. Accordingly, the present study aimed to identify the key dimensions of economic warfare and examine the relationships among them. In addition to advancing the theoretical literature on economic warfare, the findings of this study can provide a valuable foundation for policy prioritization, strengthening economic resilience, and improving strategic decision-making in the face of economic threats.
Materials and Methods
This study adopted a descriptive–analytical methodology and a mixed methods research design. In the first phase, the key dimensions of economic warfare were identified through a systematic review of the literature and policy documents, which served as the basis for developing the study’s conceptual framework. The second phase involved the analysis of relationships among the dimensions. A purposive sampling method was used to select experts with relevant academic qualifications, professional experience, and specialized knowledge of economic warfare. Consistent with expert-based decision-making techniques, such as decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL), the validity of the analysis depends primarily on the expertise and competence of the selected experts rather than on the sample size.
The fuzzy DEMATEL method was used to analyze the causal relationships among the identified dimensions. This method was chosen because of its ability to model complex interrelationships while accounting for the uncertainty inherent in expert judgments. The data was collected through a pairwise comparison questionnaire based on linguistic variables, which were subsequently converted into triangular fuzzy numbers. The direct-relation matrix and the total-relation matrix were then constructed. Following the defuzzification process, the indices of influence (D), dependence (R), prominence (D + R), and relation (D - R) were calculated for each dimension. Finally, the cause and effect groups were identified, and a causal relationship map of the dimensions of economic warfare was developed to facilitate the interpretation of the findings.
Results and Discussion
In the first stage, the systematic literature review led to the identification of thirteen principal dimensions of economic warfare: trade warfare, investment warfare, currency warfare, financial warfare, cyber–economic warfare, corporate warfare, technology warfare, resource warfare, energy warfare, food security warfare, corridor warfare, capital market warfare, and media–economic warfare. These dimensions constituted the final analytical framework of the study.
The results obtained from the fuzzy DEMATEL analysis revealed that these dimensions are characterized by complex, dynamic, and interdependent relationships and, therefore, cannot be analyzed independently. The values of the influence (D), dependence (R), prominence (D + R), and relation (D - R) indices indicate that some dimensions function as driving forces, whereas others represent outcome dimensions within the overall structure of economic warfare. Accordingly, economic warfare can be conceptualized as a networked system in which changes in one dimension propagate through a network of causal relationships and influence the others.
On the basis of the relation (D - R) index, media–economic warfare, corridor warfare, cyber–economic warfare, currency warfare, financial warfare, and trade warfare were identified as causes or driving factors, whereas investment warfare, corporate warfare, technology warfare, resource warfare, energy warfare, food security warfare, and capital market warfare were identified as effect factors. These findings suggest that policies aimed solely at mitigating the consequences of economic warfare are unlikely to be effective unless they also address its underlying driving factors.
Among the driving factors, media–economic warfare exerted the greatest influence on the other dimensions, highlighting the critical role of public opinion management, the shaping of economic expectations, and cognitive operations in shaping financial markets, exchange rates, investment, and trade. Moreover, the identification of corridor warfare, currency warfare, and financial warfare as major causes underscores the strategic importance of transportation infrastructure, macroeconomic stability, and the financial system in reducing the vulnerability of the national economy. The prominence (D + R) index further indicated that investment warfare, currency warfare, corporate warfare, trade warfare, and financial warfare exhibit the highest levels of interaction with the other dimensions and therefore represent the central nodes of the economic warfare network.
Overall, the findings demonstrate that effective responses to economic warfare require a systemic, coordinated, and driver-oriented approach that recognizes the economic, financial, trade, media, technological, and infrastructural dimensions as interdependent components of a unified network.
Conclusion
The present study employed the fuzzy DEMATEL method to identify the key dimensions of economic warfare and analyze the causal relationships among them. According to the findings, economic warfare exhibits an interconnected network structure in which its various dimensions influence one another through both direct and indirect relationships. More specifically, media–economic warfare, corridor warfare, cyber–economic warfare, currency warfare, financial warfare, and trade warfare were identified as the main driving factors, whereas the dimensions related to investment, corporate activities, technology, resources, energy, food security, and the capital market were classified as effect factors, reflecting their greater susceptibility to influences from other dimensions of the system.
Strengthening economic resilience requires a strategic focus on the driving factors of the network and the adoption of an integrated policy approach. Therefore, enhancing coordination among monetary and exchange rate, financial, trade, technological, media, and infrastructure policies can play a critical role in reducing the vulnerability of the national economy to external pressures. Moreover, the prominent role of media–economic warfare underscores the importance of public opinion management, the shaping of economic expectations, and effective media governance as integral components of economic policymaking.
The current study also contributes to the scholarly literature by proposing a causal model of the relationships among the dimensions of economic warfare and by providing a systematic framework for analyzing this phenomenon. Future research should adopt integrated methodological approaches to examine these relationships across different sectors and national contexts, thereby advancing the literature and informing the development of more effective policy recommendations for enhancing economic security and resilience.

Keywords

Economic Warfare

Fuzzy DEMATEL

Cause-and-Effect Relationships

Economic Security

Resistance Economy

Sanctions

Subjects

Growth Economy

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