Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 teacher/ university
2 Professor of Economics Tabriz University - - Professor of Economics, University of Tabriz, Department of Economics, Tabriz, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Tabriz
Abstract
In this research, an attempt is made to use the generalized factor vector (FAVAR) self-explanatory approach, during the period of 1370 to 1400, annually with a relatively small scale, to investigate macroeconomic and housing market shocks. to be Recent surveys indicate an increase in attention to models in which a wide range of economic information is used in their design. This has been made possible by supplementing the traditional vector autoregression (VAR) models by using one or more factors. The impact of production shocks, inflation, exchange rate, oil revenues and money volume has been investigated. To estimate the housing price level from the four housing price indices, fuel and lighting, real estate index, rent and business activities; The index of rental housing in Tehran and the price index of construction services are used to estimate the level of investment in the housing sector. Investment in new houses in big cities, total investment in new houses in Tehran, number of permits issued by municipalities in all urban areas, number of permits issued by municipalities in cities The size and number of licenses issued by municipalities in Tehran. According to the obtained results, the shocks of the amount of money, inflation, production, oil revenues and exchange rate create a wave-like effect in the housing sector, which lasts for about 6 to 8 years in the housing sector.
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