Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 Member of the Faculty of Economics, Shahid Chamran University of Ahwaz
2 Association professor of economics, shahid chamran university of ahvaz, ahvaz, iran
Abstract
In the present study, the effect of uncertainty on selected monetary policy transmission of iran during the period 1:1990 to 2022:4 has been investigated. In this regard, first, considering the three variables of the central bank's policy instruments (monetary base (BM), money (M_1) and liquidity (M_2)) and its two target variables (GDP and inflation) and using the var-x method, three selected monetary transmission channel of interest rate, exchange rate and credits have been investigated. The results show that regardless of the type of policy variable and the target of the central bank, the credit transmission chanel has played a role, while the role of the other two transmission chanel depends on the type of policy instrument and the target variable. After identifying the monetary policy transmission, in order to investigate the effect of different levels of uncertainty on monetary policy transmission mechanisms, the 90th and 10th percentiles of the optimal economic uncertainty index were used as proxy for high and low levels of uncertainty and by using the interaction vector autoregression (IVAR) method and extracting impulse response functions (IRFs) of two variables, GDP and inflation, the desired survey has been done. The results indicate that during the period under review, monetary policy trasmission work differently in different levels of uncertainty, and in fact, the amount of uncertainty effect on monetary policy trasmission is effective and of course different.
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