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Evaluation of Exchange Rate Regime’s Effect on Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: An Application of Propensity Score Matching Approach

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 PhD of Economics, Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran

2 Professor, Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran

3 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran

4 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Estimating the real exchange rate misalignment from the equilibrium value and exploring the factors affecting its changes is crucial for both economic policymakers and economic agents. Among the various factors affecting exchange rate misalignment, the exchange rate regime, has received less attention in experimental studies. Accordingly, the present paper seeks to find out the answer to the question of how real exchange rate misalignment is affected by different exchange rate regimes. In other words, in which of the exchange rate regimes is the exchange rate misalignment less and in which one it is higher? To answer the question, the propensity score matching approach has been used. For this purpose, we have used data from 116 developing countries with different exchange rate regimes in 2019. Other factors such as real exchange rate misalignment in the previous period, inflation, the quality of institutions and financial development have been considered as match variables to net the effect of the exchange rate regime on real exchange rate misalignment and to separate the effects of other variables. The results showed that the real exchange rate misalignment from its equilibrium level has responded significantly to the type of exchange rate regime adopted by the countries, so that the floating exchange rate regime increases the real exchange rate misalignment in the selected developing countries wherever implemented. It can be argued that factors such as high exchange rate  fluctuations, a more drastic adjustment in the price level, and speculative bubbles or contagion effects in the floating exchange rate regime have led to an increase in these misalignments.

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Iranian Journal of Economic Research
Volume 27, Issue 93 - Serial Number 93
February 2023
Pages 105-136
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History
  • Receive Date: 17 August 2021
  • Revise Date: 26 July 2022
  • Accept Date: 04 November 2021
  • First Publish Date: 09 August 2022
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