Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D. Candidate in Economics, Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.

2 Professor of International Economics, Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan

3 Associate Professor, Department of Statistics,Faculty of Sciences, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.

Abstract

In recent years, most studies in the field of technology and trade have focused on the critical importance of technological change in explaining international trade patterns. Technological innovation is not taking place in all countries and it does not spread to all countries at the same time, therefore technological distance would exist among countries.This paper has explained  the effect of technological distance on Iran’s trade relations, specifying a semi-parametric gravity model over 1995-2015. As expected, the estimation results of semi-parametric gravity model show that the effect of GDP on bilateral trade relations between Iran and each of the selected trading partners is positive and significant. The population of the exporter has negative impact while the importer’s population has positive effect on bilateral trade. Our empirical results indicate that the relationship between technological distance and bilateral trade is nonparametric, implying a general effect of technology on Iran’s bilateral trade relations. More clearly, in some ranges of the technological distance a negative effect appears on trade relations, while in other fractions of the relevant distance, the impact is positive, leading to an increase in bilateral trade relations between Iran and its trading partners.

Keywords

جهانگیری، خلیل، رضازاده، علی و جمشیدی، عذرا (1395). بررسی تأثیر حمایت از اختراع و نوآوری بر صادرات کشورهای شمال و جنوب. فصلنامه مدیریت توسعه فناوری، دوره4، شماره 3، 162-135.
لطفعلی‌پور، محمدرضا، شاکری، سیده‌زهرا و کبری بطا، فاطمه (1390)، بررسی هم‌گرایی اقتصادی میان ایران و کشورهای آمریکای لاتین (کاربرد مدل جاذبه)،  فصلنامه علمی- پژوهشی پژوهش­های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی، سال اول، شماره 3، 99-73.
شمس­الدینی، اسماعیل، مقدسی، رضا و صدرالاشرافی، مهریار (1389). بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر جریان­های تجاری میان ایران و اتحادیه اروپا (مطالعه موردی: بخش کشاورزی). اقتصاد کشاورزی، جلد 4، شماره­ 3، 40-17. 
شاه­آبادی، ابوالفضل و ثمری، هانیه (1393). نوآوری و صادرات مبتنی‌بر فناوری برتر، مقایسه جمهوری اسلامی ایران با کشورهای منتخب سند چشم‌انداز، فصلنامه رشد فناوری تخصصی پارک­ها و مراکز رشد، سال 10، شماره 38، 54-45.
کریمی هسنیجه، حسین و طیبی، سیدکمیل (1386). تأثیر کاربران اینترنتی بر جریان‌های تجاری سازمان تجارت جهانی. پژوهش‌های اقتصادی ایران، سال 9، شماره 33، 183-165.
مهرگان، نادر و دهقانپور، محمدرضا (1390). تأثیر تحقیق و توسعه و سرمایه­گذاری مستقیم خارجی بر صادرات مبتنی‌بر فناوری برتر در ایران (1360-386). پژوهش و توسعه فناوری، شماره 4، 79-59.
مهرگان، نادر ، دهقانپور، محمدرضا و ده موید، بابک (1390). صادرات صنایع مبتنی‌بر فناوری برتر و عوامل مؤثر بر آن. سیاست علم و فناوری، دوره 3، شماره 4، 82-69.
محمود جانلو، لیلا، شیرازی، بابک، مهدوی، ایرج و سلطان‌زاده، جواد (1397). تحلیل پتنت با استفاده از داده‌کاوی برای شناسایی و تعیین ارتباطات میان فناوری­ها. پژوهشنامه پردازش و مدیریت اطلاعات، دوره 33، شماره 4، 1624-1589.
یزدانی، مهدی، صادقی، مینا و رمضانی، هادی (1396). اثرات مرزی در تجارت دوجانبه ایران و شرکای برتر تجاری: رویکرد الگوی جاذبه غیرخطی. تحقیقات اقتصادی، دوره 52، شماره 1، 269-245.
Anderson, J. E. (1979). A theoretical foundation for the gravity equation. The American Economic Review, 69(1), 106-116.
Anderson, J. E., & Van Wincoop, E. (2003). Gravity with gravitas: a solution to the border puzzle. American economic review, 93(1), 170-192.
Antimiani, A., & Costantini, V. (2013). Trade performances and technology in the enlarged European Union. Journal of Economic Studies, 40(3), 355-389. Badinger, H., & Breuss, F. (2008). Trade and productivity: an industry perspective. Empirica, 35(2), 213-231.
Baltagi, B. H., & Li, D. (2002). Series estimation of partially linear panel data models with fixed effects. Annals of economics and finance, 3(1), 103-116.
Bergstrand, J. H. (1985). The gravity equation in international trade: some microeconomic foundations and empirical evidence. The review of economics and statistics, 474-481.
Bergstrand, J. H., & Egger, P. (2013). Gravity equations and economic frictions in the world economy. In Palgrave handbook of international trade (pp. 532-570). Palgrave Macmillan, London.
Brodzicki, T., & Śledziewska, K. (2016). The role of technology gap in the trade of Poland. Panel estimation in the gravity framework. International Business and Global Economy, 35(1), 325-341.
Čipkutė, E. (2016). The gravity model for assessing trade patterns: the case of Baltic states. Ekonomika (Economics), 95(3), 81-97.
Dhakal, D., Pradhan, G., & Upadhyaya, K. P. (2011). “Another Empirical Look at the Theory of Overlapping Demands-Un altro sguardo empirico alla teoria delle overlapping demands. Economia Internazionale/International Economics, 64(1), 103-113.
Deardorff, A. (1998). Determinants of bilateral trade: does gravity work in a neoclassical world?. In The regionalization of the world economy (pp. 7-32). University of Chicago Press.
Deprez, J., & Harvey, J. T. (Eds.). (1999). Foundations of international economics: post-Keynesian perspectives. Psychology Press.
Dunlevy, J. A., & Hutchinson, W. K. (1999). The impact of immigration on American import trade in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. The Journal of Economic History, 59(4), 1043-1062.
Eaton, J., & Kortum, S. (2002). Technology, geography, and trade. Econometrica, 70(5), 1741-1779.
Robert, C. F. (2016). Advanced International Trade-Theory and Evidence.
Frankel, J., & Rose, A. (2002). An estimate of the effect of common currencies on trade and income. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(2), 437-466.
Fagerberg, J. (1988). International competitiveness. The economic journal, 98(391), 355-374.
Fagerberg, J., Srholec, M., & Knell, M. (2007). The competitiveness of nations: Why some countries prosper while others fall behind. World development, 35(10), 1595-1620.
Filho, L.W.D.S. (2002). Prospects of Integration and Development of R&D and the Innovation Potential of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Countries, Nato Science Series, V: Science and Technology Policy.
Filippini, C., & Molini, V. (2003). The determinants of East Asian trade flows: a gravity equation approach. Journal of Asian Economics, 14(5), 695-711.
Furman, J. L., & Hayes, R. (2004). Catching up or standing still?: National innovative productivity among ‘follower’countries, 1978–1999. Research Policy, 33(9), 1329-1354.
Gandolfo, G. (2014). International Trade Theory and Policy, Springer. 
Ghanbari, A., & Ahmadi, M. (2017). The Effect of Innovation on International Trade: Selected Medium-High-Technology Industries, Evidence on Iran+ 3. Iranian Economic Review, 21(1), 21-44.
Gowa, J., & Mansfield, E. D. (1993). Power politics and international trade. American political science review, 87(2), 408-420.
Gurrin, L. C., Scurrah, K. J., & Hazelton, M. L. (2005). Tutorial in biostatistics: spline smoothing with linear mixed models. Statistics in medicine, 24(21), 3361-3381.
Greytak, D., & McHugh, R. (1977). Linder's trade thesis: An empirical examination. Southern Economic Journal, 1386-1389.
Härdle, W. (1990). Applied nonparametric regression (No. 19). Cambridge university press.
Helpman, E., & Krugman, P. R. (1985). Market structure and foreign trade: Increasing returns, imperfect competition, and the international economy. MIT press.
Henderson, D. J., & Millimet, D. L. (2008). Is gravity linear?. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23(2), 137-172.
Jones, R. (1970). The Role of Technology in the Theory of International Trade. In The Technology Factor in International Trade (pp. 73-94). NBER.
Kabir, M., & Salim, R. (2010), Can Gravity Model Explain BIMSTEC’s Trade?. Journal of Economic Integration, 25(1). 143-165.
Kay, L., Newman, N., Youtie, J., Porter, A. L. & Rafols, I., (2014). Patent overlay mapping: visualizing technological distance, Journal of the Association for Information Science and Technology, 65(12), 2432-2443.
Keller, W. (2004). International Technology Diffusion, Journal of Economic Literature, 42(3), 752-782.
Keele, L. J. (2008). Semiparametric Regression for the Social Sciences, John Wiley & Sons.
Kim, L. (1997). Imitation to Innovation: The Dynamics of Korea’s Technological Learning, Harvard Business Press.
Krugman, P. (1979). A Model of Innovation, Technology Transfer, and the World Distribution of Income, Journal of Political Economy, 87(2). 253-266.
Lall, S. (1992). Technological Capabilities and Industrialization, World Development, 20(2). 165-186.
Linnemann, H. (1966). An Econometric Study of International Trade Flows (No. 42).  North-Holland Pub. Co..
McCallum, J. (1995). National borders matter: Canada-US regional trade patterns. The American Economic Review, 85(3), 615-623.
Mansfield, E. D., & Bronson, R. (1997). Alliances, preferential trading arrangements, and international trade. American Political Science Review, 91(1), 94-107.
Márquez-Ramos, L., Martínez-Zarzoso, I., & Suárez-Burguet, C. (2008). Technological Innovation, Trade and Development. In Information Communication Technologies: Concepts, Methodologies, Tools, and Applications (pp. 284-303). IGI Global.
Nilsson, A. (2013). Innovation Proxy-A study of patent and economic growth in China, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
OhadiEsfahani, S., & Tayebi, S. K. The Role of R&D in Trade Expansion: A Semi-parametric Gravity Specification for East and West Asia.
OhadiEsfahani, S., & Tayebi, S. K. (2016). Technological Distance and Bilateral Trade in Asia. Korea and the World Economy, 17(2), 243-265.
Pöyhönen, P. (1963). A tentative model for the volume of trade between countries. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 93-100.
Papazoglou, C., Pentecost, E. J., & Marques, H. (2006). A gravity model forecast of the potential trade effects of EU enlargement: Lessons from 2004 and path-dependency in integration. World Economy, 29(8), 1077-1089.
Pollins, B. M. (1989). Conflict, cooperation, and commerce: The effect of international political interactions on bilateral trade flows. American Journal of Political Science, 737-761.
Racine, J. S. (2008). Nonparametric econometrics: A primer. Foundations and Trends in Econometrics, 3(1), 1-88.
Qureshi, U. A., French, G. L., & Sailors, J. W. (1980). Linder's trade thesis: A further examination. Southern Economic Journal, 933-936.
Ruppert, D., Wand, M. P., & Carroll, R. J. (2003). Semiparametric regression (Vol. 12). Cambridge university press.
Řezáč, M. (2014). Determinants of foreign direct investment inflows to China: A Gravity Model Approach, Charles University in Prague.
Reuveny, R., & Kang, H. (2003). A Simultaneous‐Equations Model of Trade, Conflict, and Cooperation. Review of International Economics, 11(2), 279-295.
Rose, A. K. (2000). One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade. Economic policy, 15(30), 08-45.
Stellner, F. (2014). Technological distance measures: theoretical foundation and empirics. In DRUID Society Conference.
Silva, J. S., & Tenreyro, S. (2006). The log of gravity. The Review of Economics and statistics, 88(4), 641-658.
Serlenga, L., and Shin, Y. (2007). Gravity Models of the Intra-EU Trade: Application of Hausman-Taylor Estimation in Heterogeneous Panels with Common Time-Specific Factors, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 361-381.  
Tinbergen, J. (1962). An analysis of world trade flows. Shaping the world economy, 3, 1-117.
Trefler, D. (1995). The case of the missing trade and other mysteries. The American Economic Review, 1029-1046.
Trefler, D. (1993). International factor price differences: Leontief was right!. Journal of political Economy, 101(6), 961-987.
Thursby, J. G., & Thursby, M. C. (1987). Bilateral trade flows, the Linder hypothesis, and exchange risk. Review of Economics and Statistics, 3(69), 488-495.
Van Beers, C. (1998). Labour standards and trade flows of OECD countries. World Economy, 21(1), 57-73.
Wakelin, K. (1997). Trade and Innovation, Theory and Evidence, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK. 
http://www.worldbank.org
http://www.timeanddate.com
http://www.comtrade.un.org
http://www. atlas.media.mit.edu