دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی پژوهش‌های اقتصادی ایران 1726-0728 30 104 2025 09 23 A Spatial Analysis of the Role of Afghan Migrants in Iran’s Regional Economic Development (2010–2024) تحلیل فضایی نقش مهاجرین افغانستانی در توسعه اقتصاد منطقه‌ای ایران (2010-2024) 167 201 20613 10.22054/ijer.2026.88036.1399 FA نعمت الله یعقوبی دانشجوی دکتری رشته اقتصاد شهری منطقه‌ای، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران رزیتا مویدفر دانشیارگروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران Journal Article 2025 09 07 Migration is one of the most significant challenges facing the modern world, as it generates various social, economic, and political complexities within host regions. The primary objective of this study was to examine the impact of Afghan migrants on Iran’s regional economic development over a ten-year period. It relied on a descriptive–analytical methodology and a spatial econometric modeling approach. First, the TOPSIS multi-criteria decision-making technique was used to construct a composite index of regional development based on twelve economic and social indicators. Then, the spatial Durbin model (SDM) with fixed spatial effects was employed to analyze spatial relationships and assess the direct and indirect effects of migration-related variables. The model was estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method to capture both local and spatial spillover effects among neighboring provinces. The empirical results indicated that spatial spillovers significantly affect adjacent regions and that the economic participation rate of Afghan migrants has a positive and statistically significant impact on regional economic development in Iran. Moreover, foreign direct investment (FDI) exhibited a positive local effect but a negative spatial effect, reflecting interprovincial competition for capital attraction. <strong> Introduction</strong> Migration is a key driver of regional economic and social transformation, particularly in developing countries characterized by labor market imbalances and uneven regional development. Iran, as one of the world’s largest host countries of Afghan migrants, offers a unique context for examining the regional development effects of migration. Over several decades, Afghan migrants have predominantly settled in border and less-developed provinces, actively participating in labor markets, establishing small-scale enterprises, and engaging with local institutions, thereby influencing regional economic dynamics. Despite their considerable presence and economic involvement, the regional development effects of Afghan migration in Iran have not yet been systematically examined through spatial econometric methods. Amid persistent structural challenges—including infrastructure deficits, international sanctions, environmental pressures, inflation, and social inequalities—along with the recent surge in Afghan migration following political changes in Afghanistan, migration management has become as a critical national policy issue in Iran. In this context, assessing the role of migrants in regional economic development is both timely and essential. The present study aimed to examine the impact of Afghan migrants on regional development in Iran. It tried to construct a composite regional development index based on twelve socioeconomic indicators using the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). Relying on a spatial panel dataset covering 31 provinces and estimating a fixed-effects spatial Durbin model (SDM) through maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), the analysis sought to capture both the direct and indirect spatial effects of migration-related variables, including education, economic participation, employment, investment, and international aid. By integrating spatial theory with applied migration economics in a developing-country setting, this study can contribute to the existing literature and offer policy insights for migration governance, labor market planning, and regional development strategy. Materials and Methods Anchored in the regional development framework, the current study focused on place-based factors, spatial interdependencies, and labor mobility, reflecting the shift in migration research from linear causality toward interregional and network-based perspectives. This approach highlights the importance of coordinated, multilevel, and region-oriented policymaking and justifies the application of spatial econometric methods to capture the complex spatial dynamics underlying migration and regional development. Spatial econometric modeling provides a robust analytical framework for examining geographic dependence and regional inequalities by identifying spatial structures and distributional patterns in socioeconomic indicators. Models such as the spatial Durbin model (SDM), spatial autoregressive model (SAR), and spatial error model (SEM) allow for the estimation of both direct and indirect (spillover) effects of migration-related variables, thereby offering a more comprehensive understanding of migration impacts that extend beyond regional boundaries (Benedetti et al., 2021). Within this framework, diagnostic tools and indicators—including dispersion measures, Moran’s I, and multi-criteria decision-making techniques such as TOPSIS and entropy-based weighting—serve as essential instruments in regional economic analysis <strong> Results and Discussion</strong> The fixed-effects SDM revealed heterogeneous and statistically significant effects of migration-related variables on Iran’s regional development index. The model estimation accounted for unobserved provincial heterogeneity, while spatial diagnostic tests—including Moran’s I and Lagrange multiplier tests—confirmed the presence of significant spatial autocorrelation, thereby validating the use of the SDM framework. The results underscored the central role of spatial effects in regional economic development, indicating that region-specific characteristics alone are insufficient to explain development outcomes. Afghan migrants positively contribute to regional development by enhancing productivity and investment; however, spatial competition among neighboring provinces may generate adverse spillover effects. These findings highlight the need for policies that support productive integration of migrants while promoting coordinated, spatially balanced regional development strategies to mitigate negative spillovers. Table 1. Results of Estimating the Coefficients of the Fixed-Effects SDM <strong>Probability range 0.95</strong> <strong>Probability</strong> <strong>z-statistic</strong> <strong>Standard deviation</strong> <strong>Coefficients</strong> <strong>Variables</strong> <strong>-1.25e-07</strong> 0.917 0.10 6074e-08 2.03e-09 Hr <strong>.003953</strong> 0.000 6.24 .0004819 .0030084 Epr <strong>-.0037513</strong> 0.000 -7.08 .0004149 -.0029381 Er <strong>-.002185</strong> 0.048 -1.98 .00065533 -.0012951 Lr <strong>-3.62e-07</strong> 0.743 -0.33 1.58e07 -5.19e-08 Iaid <strong>-2.51e-08</strong> 0.002 -3.14 2.32e-08 -6.68e-08 Fdi <strong>-.333908</strong> 0.068 -1.83 .0881603 -.1611171 Spatial rho <strong>.0020443</strong> 0.000 12.42 .0001953 .0024272 Variance <strong> </strong>       0.3941 Mean of Fixed- Effects <strong> </strong>       492.6575 Log-likelihood Source: Research findings The results (Table 2) showed heterogeneous indirect effects of Afghan migrants on Iran’s regional development. While the migrant employment rate generated positive spatial spillovers, strengthening economic linkages across neighboring provinces, economic participation, and foreign direct investment exhibited negative indirect effects, likely reflecting institutional constraints and interregional competition. Other migration-related variables primarily exhibited localized impacts. Overall, Afghan migrants contributed to regional development through increased labor supply, productivity gains, entrepreneurial activity, and human capital transfer, with their effects extending beyond provincial boundaries via spatial spillovers. These findings underscore the importance of coordinated, spatially-informed policies and appropriate legal frameworks to manage migrant employment and investment, thereby promoting balanced and sustainable regional development. Table 2. Direct and Indirect Effects of Afghan Migrants on Regional Development <strong>Direct variables</strong> <strong>Meaningfulness</strong> Coefficients Interpretation <strong>Spatial lag</strong> <strong>Indirect</strong> <strong>effect</strong> <strong>Elasticity</strong> <strong>Hr</strong> 0.382 9.13e-08 Insignificant wlx_hr -0.0000 -0.0755 <strong>Epr</strong> 0.000 0.0032948 Significant wlx_epr -0.0005 -0.0260 <strong>Er</strong> 0.000 -0.0028494 Significant wlx_er 0.0007 0.2739 <strong>Lr</strong> 0.735 -0.000348 Insignificant wlx_lr 0.0000 0.0509 <strong>Iaid</strong> 0.688 -1.18e-07 Insignificant wlx_iaid -0.0000 -0.0022 <strong>Fdi</strong> 0.192 4.61e-08 Insignificant wlx_fdi -0.0000 -0.0513 Source: Research findings Conclusion Using spatial panel data and a spatial Durbin model (SDM), this study found that Afghan migration exerts statistically significant and spatially interdependent effects on Iran’s regional economic development. The results revealed strong spatial dependence across provinces, indicating that migration-related economic activities in one region could influence development outcomes in neighboring areas. While migrants’ economic participation positively contributes to regional development, weak or negative effects associated with employment and literacy reflect legal, institutional, and structural constraints in labor market integration. The presence of spatial spillovers further suggests that regional competition and capacity limitations may lead to uneven distribution of migration benefits. Overall, the findings highlighted the necessity of coordinated, spatially informed migration and development policies, strengthened legal and institutional frameworks, and interprovincial cooperation. Adopting a development-oriented, multilevel policy approach—beyond a narrow security-oriented perspective—is essential for leveraging migration as a driver of balanced and sustainable regional development in Iran. یکی از مهم‌ترین چالش‌های جهان امروز پدیده مهاجرت است زیرا این مسئله چالش‌های زیادی را در ساختارهای اجتماعی، اقتصادی و حتی سیاسی یک منطقه به‌وجود می‌آورد.  هدف این مطالعه ارزیابی تأثیر مهاجران افغانستانی بر توسعه اقتصادی منطقه‌ای ایران بوده و داده‌های مورد استفاده در این پژوهش بازه زمانی 2010 تا 2024 را پوشش می‌دهد؛ بااین‌حال به منظور حفظ پیوستگی زمانی، برآورد مدل پانل فضایی براساس یک زیر بازه ده ساله پیوسته انجام شده است. این تحقیق از نظر هدف کاربردی و از نظر ماهیت و روش تحلیلی- توصیفی است. در ابتدا یک <strong>شاخص ترکیبی توسعه منطقه‌ای</strong> بر پایه‌ ۱۲ شاخص اقتصادی و اجتماعی و با بهره‌گیری از <strong>روش تصمیم‌گیری چندمعیاره تاپسیس</strong><strong> (TOPSIS)</strong><strong> </strong>تدوین شد سپس به‌منظور تحلیل روابط فضایی و بررسی اثرات مستقیم و غیرمستقیم متغیرهای مرتبط با مهاجرین، از <strong>مدل اقتصادسنجی پانل فضایی دوربین</strong><strong> (SDM)</strong> با اثرات ثابت مکانی استفاده گردید. برآورد مدل با <strong>روش حداکثر درست‌نمایی </strong>انجام شد تا هم اثرات محلی و هم اثرات سرریز فضایی میان استان‌های همجواراندازه‌گیری شود. این تحقیق نشان داد که سرریزهای فضایی، بر استان‌های همجوار اثرگذار بوده و نرخ مشارکت اقتصادی مهاجرین افغانستانی اثر مثبت و معناداری بر توسعه اقتصاد منطقه‌ای داشته است. همچنین سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی دارای اثر مثبت محلی اما اثر منفی فضایی بود که نشان‌دهنده رقابت منطقه‌ای برای جذب سرمایه است. https://ijer.atu.ac.ir/article_20613_114567b6398e1bfd6b987f247fc50b2b.pdf