Mohsen Mehrara; Mojtaba Mohammdian
Volume 19, Issue 61 , February 2015, , Pages 83-116
Abstract
This paper has tried to apply Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Weighted Average Least Squares (WALS) approaches as methods of averaging in Bayesian econometrics in order to investigate the impact of 18 macroeconomic variables on Gini coefficient in Iran based on annual data from 1976 to 2010. The results ...
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This paper has tried to apply Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Weighted Average Least Squares (WALS) approaches as methods of averaging in Bayesian econometrics in order to investigate the impact of 18 macroeconomic variables on Gini coefficient in Iran based on annual data from 1976 to 2010. The results of two approaches indicate that the growth rate of Gross domestic products is the most important determinant of the Gini coefficient, implying economic growth arising from oil booms leads to more unequal distribution of income. As regards to other variables, the results of BMA estimation indicate that second and third effective variables on Gini coefficient are respectively the ratio of government current expenditure to GDP and the ratio of oil revenue to GDP for which an increase in the ratios engenders inequality. Thus the distribution of oil rents and government expenditure is inconsistent with primary purposes of politicians to ameliorate income distribution. Also the results of WALS estimation rank openness and exchange rate as the most effective variables respectively with positive sign. Therefore economic liberalization moving along with oil revenue during the sample period, has been against the favor of lower income groups. According to aforementioned results, it is necessary to revise economic growth policies to the benefit of low-income groups of people. In addition, renovation of budgeting process and allocation of resources with aim to reduce rent-seeking opportunities and more privileges for low-income groups must be considered by policy makers.
Yeganeh Mousavi Jahromi; Farhad Khodadad Kashi; Alame Moosapour Ahmadi
Volume 19, Issue 61 , February 2015, , Pages 117-147
Abstract
In the presentstudy,the evaluation of different economic factors’ impact on income inequality in Iran has been considered during the period 1363-1390. In order to achieve this, Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag method is used. The results indicate that the rate ofeconomic growth and inflation rate ...
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In the presentstudy,the evaluation of different economic factors’ impact on income inequality in Iran has been considered during the period 1363-1390. In order to achieve this, Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag method is used. The results indicate that the rate ofeconomic growth and inflation rate havenegative influence and income tax, labour productivity and gas and oil revenue has a positive influence on income equality.Also based on the results, it can be stated that the relationship between economic growth and income distribution confims Kuznets and Kaldor’s view. The structural stability tests indicate the estimated model is stable. In addition, according to calculated elasticities, it can be concluded that revenue fromincome tax has had the most effect on reducing incomeinequality in Iran during the mentioned period.
Javid Bahrami; Parvaneh Aslani
Volume 7, Issue 23 , July 2005, , Pages 119-145
Abstract
In this research, we test for the factors that determine private saving in the Iranian economy during 1968-2001 using auto regressive distributed lag model (ARDL). In this model, we examine the effects of factors such as disposable income, social security costs, unemployment rate, long term interest ...
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In this research, we test for the factors that determine private saving in the Iranian economy during 1968-2001 using auto regressive distributed lag model (ARDL). In this model, we examine the effects of factors such as disposable income, social security costs, unemployment rate, long term interest rate, inflation, Gini coefficient, ratio of the value of stocks exchanges to the terms of trade GDP, and a dummy variable for the post-war years. The results show positive effects of income, improvement of income distribution, and more developed financial markets, and negative effect of social security costs on the saving of private sector.
Our results also indicate that the best and the most secured way to increase private saving is to improve financial markets performance that leads to a better absurbtion of saving and to an increases in investment possibility.
