Rahim Goodarzi; Mahmood Sabuhi; Naser Shahnoushi; Hossein Mehrabi; Mashallah Salarpour
Volume 17, Issue 53 , February 2013, , Pages 135-157
Abstract
Subsidies are known to distort prices, the optimal allocation of resources and economic growth and induce budget deficit and increase social costs, resulting in irreparable adverse effects on the economy. On the other hand implemetation of subsidy reform programs can have a widespread impact on economic ...
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Subsidies are known to distort prices, the optimal allocation of resources and economic growth and induce budget deficit and increase social costs, resulting in irreparable adverse effects on the economy. On the other hand implemetation of subsidy reform programs can have a widespread impact on economic aggregates A clearly specified trend in trajectory of macroeconomic variables is expected to better enable policy makers in planning for appropriate fiscal and monetary policy pakeges. The task of determining the best policy package, consistent with macroeconomic goals and constraints presents a genuine Stochastic Optimal Control problem. Solution for such a problem requires a practical statistical algorithm. The OPTCON2 method employed in this study seems to be a suitable method. First, the econometric relationships among the macroeconomic variables of the model is estimated using 2SLS statistical method. Subsquently an OPTCON2 prorgram is specified using C # Language in a visual studio. Simulation program for subsidies during the 5th development plan indicates a decline in economic growth for the first year, followed by a small rise in growth rate during the subsequent years. The findings also indicates an initial rise in inflation followed with a decline in later periods. It was also indicated that the unemployment rate is likely to rise in the beginning, leveling down to a given rate later.
Mohsen Mehrara; Hamid Abrishami; Seyed Mohammad Hadi Sobhanian
Volume 16, Issue 49 , February 2012, , Pages 177-204
Abstract
In this study we have dealt with the non-linear effects of economic growth on the energy consumption growth in countries depending on petroleum revenues (OPEC member countries)as well as the BRIC countries. For this end, the panel data from 1980 to 2006 for both groups of above-mentioned countries was ...
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In this study we have dealt with the non-linear effects of economic growth on the energy consumption growth in countries depending on petroleum revenues (OPEC member countries)as well as the BRIC countries. For this end, the panel data from 1980 to 2006 for both groups of above-mentioned countries was employed and analyzed on the basis of threshold error correction model. The results indicate that in both group of countries, the effects of economic growth are non-linear so that the high economic growth rates (the economic growth rates more than threshold level of 0.01 for OPEC and 0.09 for BRIC) has increased the energy consumption growth with more severity. Of course, the effects of economic growth on the energy consumption growth in BRIC member countries are by far higher. Therefore, although an economic growth rate higher than threshold level may lead to environmental pollution in the OPEC member countries, but these countries should have less anxiety about the detrimental environmental effects of their economic growth compared to the BRIC countries.
Majid Sameti; Rohollah Shahnazi; Zahra dehghan shabani
Volume 15, Issue 44 , October 2010, , Pages 85-109
Abstract
This paper investigates the role of property right and regulation in credit, business and labor markets on economic growth by using two panel data models for 80 countries during 2000-2005. The first model considers legal structure and total effect of regulation on economic growth and the second model ...
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This paper investigates the role of property right and regulation in credit, business and labor markets on economic growth by using two panel data models for 80 countries during 2000-2005. The first model considers legal structure and total effect of regulation on economic growth and the second model investigates three main component of regulation; i.e. regulation in credit, business and labor markets and property right on economic growth. findings of the first model show labor force, human capital, capital stock, property right and regulation have positive effect on economic growth. And according to the second model property right and regulation in credit and labor markets have positive effect on economic growth.
Firooz Falahi; jalal montazeri shoorekchali
Volume 15, Issue 44 , October 2010, , Pages 111-133
Abstract
The annual data on economic growth and energy consumption in Iran during the period 1352-1386 is used to study the effect of energy use on the growth of Iranian economy. To that end, a smooth transition regression model is used. The selected model has two regimes and two thresholds. Regime one starts ...
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The annual data on economic growth and energy consumption in Iran during the period 1352-1386 is used to study the effect of energy use on the growth of Iranian economy. To that end, a smooth transition regression model is used. The selected model has two regimes and two thresholds. Regime one starts from 1353 and ends in 1362; while the second regime covers the period 1363-1386. The results show that the energy use had a negative effect on the economic growth in both regimes, and that the effect is larger in the first regime. Therefore, based on these results the growth hypothesis does not hold in the Iranian economy. This could be considered as a sign of inefficient use of energy in Iran.
Jamishid Pajooian; Maryam Lashkaryzadeh
Volume 14, Issue 42 , April 2010, , Pages 169-188
Abstract
The local and international environmental problems are one of the most important concerns for economists, politicians, and lawmakers. Therefore, an investigation of the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution can be important ,because it may be used as a base for national and ...
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The local and international environmental problems are one of the most important concerns for economists, politicians, and lawmakers. Therefore, an investigation of the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution can be important ,because it may be used as a base for national and international environmental policies. In this study, a panel data approach was used to analyze the effect of economic growth, technical, preferential and political changes on the important air pollution factors in the 56 selected countries with different developments levels for the period 1995 - 2005.The results indicate that despite the positive effect of the economic growth on the environmental pollution, technological advances have played an important role in the reduction of sulfur and nitrogen dioxide,and in improvement of the political indices in the reduction of carbon dioxide as the air pollutant.
Farhad Dejpasand; Hosein Goudarzi
Volume 14, Issue 42 , April 2010, , Pages 189-207
Abstract
A great deal of literature has examined the relationship between government size and economic growth. To investigate this relationship, this study applies a threshold regression model to test whether the Army curve exists in Iran as an oil exporting country. Five classification of government size include ...
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A great deal of literature has examined the relationship between government size and economic growth. To investigate this relationship, this study applies a threshold regression model to test whether the Army curve exists in Iran as an oil exporting country. Five classification of government size include total government expenditure/GDP, government investment expenditure/GDP and government consumption expenditure/GDP, government expenditure financed by oil /GDP and government expenditure financed by tax/GDP. The result reveal that all classification except government expenditure finance by tax have a threshold effect and economic growth is maximum when government expenditure is between 23 to 30 percent of GDP.
Saeed Isa Zadeh; Akbar Ahmadzadeh
Volume 13, Issue 40 , October 2009, , Pages 1-28
Abstract
The neo-classical growth models explain the difference between economic growth of economies as a result of difference in economic factors such as capital (in the form of fiscal and human) and factor productivity، but according to new institutional economist those differences in fact originate from institutional ...
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The neo-classical growth models explain the difference between economic growth of economies as a result of difference in economic factors such as capital (in the form of fiscal and human) and factor productivity، but according to new institutional economist those differences in fact originate from institutional qualities and structures in different countries. In this regard، the main reason of having low level of per capita income in less developed countries is the lack of good quality institutions for economic activities and capital accumulation.Researches show the positive impacts of institutions on economic growth in different economies. In this study، we investigate evaluate the effects of institutional qualities and other economic factors on economic growth in 50 countries for the period of 1996 - to 2005. Institutional quality is formed by combination of six basic indices as followes: voice and accountibility، political stability، control of corruption، rule of law، regulatory of quality، and government effectiveness. The results show athe direct relationship between economic growth and institutional qualities.
Davood Behboodi; Hossien Asgharpour; Siab Mamipour
Volume 13, Issue 40 , October 2009, , Pages 125-147
Abstract
Growth literatures indicates that human capital، education and technologicaly progress are effective factors on economic growth. Empirical studies present that natural resource abundance have an important role on economic growth in natural-resource-rich countries. This studyessaystudy essay investigates ...
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Growth literatures indicates that human capital، education and technologicaly progress are effective factors on economic growth. Empirical studies present that natural resource abundance have an important role on economic growth in natural-resource-rich countries. This studyessaystudy essay investigates the relationship between natural resource abundance، human capital and economic growth in two cases of petroleum exporters' countries: A) Major petroleum exporters B) Other petroleum exporters. We use a panel data for The model of this paper is tested by panel data for the period 1970-2004. The results output of models indicate that physical investment and openness have positive impact on economic growth، and resource abundant and government expenditure ae inversely related with economic growth.، but hHuman capital hasve a different impact inin the two cases sample of paper; so that human capital have It has a negative impact on economic growth in the first case (A)، but while it has a positive impact on economic growth in the second case (B). So، We can conclude that human capital can be main factor to explain slow growth in resource-rich countries. Abundant of natural resource in this countries and bad usage of natural resource can be cause of negative relationship between human capital and economic growth. In other hands، Ccountries that are rich in mineral and oil resources neglect the developing of their human resources by devoting inadequate attention and expenditure to education. So these countries have lower growth rate with respect to others.
Behzad Salmani; Alireza Mohammadi
Volume 13, Issue 39 , July 2009, , Pages 73-93
Abstract
This article investigates the effect of government health expenditures as a proxy for health on Iran's economic growth. In doing this the growth model of generalized Aggregate Production Function (APF), based on the growth accounting approach has been used. The basis of this model is the estimation ...
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This article investigates the effect of government health expenditures as a proxy for health on Iran's economic growth. In doing this the growth model of generalized Aggregate Production Function (APF), based on the growth accounting approach has been used. The basis of this model is the estimation of production function in growth accounting methodology. In order to estimate the model the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Method (ARDL) over the period 1350- 1381 has been used. The results of the research indicate that in the long run, government health expenditures have a positive and significant effect on Iran's economic growth. Also convergence relation among government health expenditures, economic growth and other variables of the model, has been ratified. Investigating the reliability of the results there can be found a positive correlation between government health expenditures and economic growth. Investigating the stability test of the estimated models represents the estimated coefficients stability in the long run.
Behrooz Hadi Zonooz; Parvaneh Kamali Dehkordi
Volume 13, Issue 39 , July 2009, , Pages 136-113
Abstract
This paper investigates the effects of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on economic growth. For this purpose we have set up a panel data for 67 countries during the years 1980-2004.All of these countries have been successful in absorbing FDI during this period. Since socio-economic characteristic ...
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This paper investigates the effects of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on economic growth. For this purpose we have set up a panel data for 67 countries during the years 1980-2004.All of these countries have been successful in absorbing FDI during this period. Since socio-economic characteristic of these countries is diametrically different, we have classified our sample into four groups as follows: a)Countries which their performance indicators in absorbing FDI is higher than their potential indicator for absorbing FDI, b)the developing countries that have good performance in absorbing FDI ,c)Non-oil developing countries that have good performance in absorbing FDI, d) Some oil producing countries such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Indonesia, Algeria and Venezuela. To test our hypothesis on positive effects of FDI on economic growth we have benefited from Mankiw , Romer, &Weil (1992) model. The results of our estimates shows that:Firstly, in all countries there is a positive relationship between FDI and growth,Secondly, the magnitude of the effect decreases when we move from the first group to the fourth group. Specially it is worth mentioning that there is a significant difference between oil and non-oil countries. Actually in the oil producing countries the determinants of growth has been significantly different compared to the other developing countries.
Nader Mehregan; Ruholah Rezaee
Volume 13, Issue 39 , July 2009, , Pages 137-146
Abstract
The world has experienced dramatic growth of population during 5 past years. Nowadays, demographic changes have been identified as one of key factors in development process. In this paper, the effect of age structure of population on economic growth has been examined. To do this, data on 171 countries ...
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The world has experienced dramatic growth of population during 5 past years. Nowadays, demographic changes have been identified as one of key factors in development process. In this paper, the effect of age structure of population on economic growth has been examined. To do this, data on 171 countries has been used over period 1966-2004. The results indicate the significant effect of demographic variables on economic growth. Based on results, population growth , the ratio of people under 15 years old to whole population , dependency ratio of young people have negative effect and ratio of people 15-64 years old to whole population, ratio of people over 65 years old to whole population, dependency ratio of elderly people have positive impact on economic growth. The growth rates of different age groups have different effects on economic growth so that the growth rate of people years under 15 years old has the biggest effect and growth rate of active people (15-64 years old) has the smallest effect on economic growth.
Anoshirvan Taghipour
Volume 12, Issue 37 , February 2009, , Pages 21-37
Saeed Moshiri; Ebrahim Eltejaei
Volume 12, Issue 36 , October 2008, , Pages 85-113
Abstract
Structural change can contribute to economic growth through an improvement in utilization of resources along with the traditional factors such as physical capital human capital, and technology. In this paper, we investigate the impact of structural change on economic growth in the new industrialized ...
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Structural change can contribute to economic growth through an improvement in utilization of resources along with the traditional factors such as physical capital human capital, and technology. In this paper, we investigate the impact of structural change on economic growth in the new industrialized countries (NIC). Among many variables traditionally used as proxies for structural changes, we identify 20 variables to represent the structural changes in 11 NICs for the period 1970-2004. We then use principal components and dynamic factor analysis to obtain an index for structural changes in these countries. Our estimation results obtained from the growth equation indicate that structural change has had a positive and significant effect on economic growth in NICs.
Teymour Mohammadi; Hossain Akbarifard
Volume 11, Issue 35 , July 2008, , Pages 177-204
Abstract
Identification of sources of disturbances in production and economic growth are amongst the most important macroeconomic discussions. There are fundamental differences between different economic schools with regard to factors creating business cycles. Research methodology of this paper is descriptive. ...
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Identification of sources of disturbances in production and economic growth are amongst the most important macroeconomic discussions. There are fundamental differences between different economic schools with regard to factors creating business cycles. Research methodology of this paper is descriptive. It is based on the Iranian data for period of 1962-2005. To do this Tornvist index of total factors productivity has been in estimated. Then, using Blanchard- Quah method, temporary and permanent shocks have been decomposed. Results of study indicate that supply side shocks have significant effect on economic growth, and effects of demand side shocks on economic growth are transitory. Supply side shocks (productivity shocks) have accumulative effects on economic growth.
Koohsar Khaledi; Saeed Yazdani; Andisheh Haghighatnejad Shirazi
Volume 11, Issue 35 , July 2008, , Pages 205-228
Abstract
Investment as one of the important factors that has a positive impact on economic growth is expected to alleviate poverty in the long run. This paper studies the role of agricultural investment on economic growth and rural poverty in the rural areas of Iran. To estimate the model, we use the seemingly ...
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Investment as one of the important factors that has a positive impact on economic growth is expected to alleviate poverty in the long run. This paper studies the role of agricultural investment on economic growth and rural poverty in the rural areas of Iran. To estimate the model, we use the seemingly unrelated regression equations "SURE" and the time series date for the period 1971-2003 The results show that although agricultural investment has a positive effect on economic growth of this sector, the gains from the growth have not had a positive impact on poverty alleviation. It seems Iran agri-economic growth is not at the level that could affect the rural poverty and the benefit resulted from current growth rate does not trickle-down to the rural poor.
Morteza Naderi; Ahmad Sharbatoghlie
Volume 9, Issue 32 , October 2007, , Pages 1-29
Abstract
Freedom of choice and competition are viewed as vital factors for economic growth. In this paper, we use a growth model to examine the impact of economic freedom on the economic growth across the world countries for the period 1999-2004. Our study differs from the previous studies in terms of the ...
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Freedom of choice and competition are viewed as vital factors for economic growth. In this paper, we use a growth model to examine the impact of economic freedom on the economic growth across the world countries for the period 1999-2004. Our study differs from the previous studies in terms of the modeling, the scope of the study, and the selected sample. The results, however, are consistent with those of the previous studies. Given the fact that Iran’s position in the world is low in terms of economic freedom, that economic freedom has a significant role in economic growth, it is necessary for investors and firms to have suitable conditions for transparent and accurate decision-making. Creation of the favorable economic conditions is the responsibility of the government and thus, it is necessary to have defined policies and planning for the establishment of conditions for economic freedom in the society. Creation of social condition for economic freedom of economic agents is a convenient orientation that is favorable with economic growth policies and must be internalized in the Iran's economic policies.
Ghahreman Abdoli
Volume 9, Issue 31 , July 2007, , Pages 103-126
Abstract
Over the final two decades of the 20th century, a number of formerly industrializing economics achieved levels of innovative capacity commensurate with or greater than those of some economies that were historically more innovative. In this paper, I discuss the conditions and factors affecting innovative ...
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Over the final two decades of the 20th century, a number of formerly industrializing economics achieved levels of innovative capacity commensurate with or greater than those of some economies that were historically more innovative. In this paper, I discuss the conditions and factors affecting innovative capacity. The framework of National Innovative capacity (NIC) can explain the difference in innovation and economic growth among countries. NIC is the ability of a country to produce and commercialize a flow of innovative technology over the long term. NIC depends on the strength of a nation’s common innovation infrastructure, the environment for innovation in its leading industrial clusters, and strength of linkage between these two areas. I use this framework to find the productivity of Iran NIC. The results of the estimated equations imply that there is a weak linkage between innovation and NIC.
Esmaiel Abounoori; Reza Abbasi Ghadi
Volume 9, Issue 30 , April 2007, , Pages 23-52
Abstract
Economic growth in addition to the direct income effect on poverty has an indirect distribution effect. The main purpose of this research is to estimate the net economic growth effect on poverty in Iran during the periods 1982-1988, the first socio-economic development plan (1989-1993), the second plan ...
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Economic growth in addition to the direct income effect on poverty has an indirect distribution effect. The main purpose of this research is to estimate the net economic growth effect on poverty in Iran during the periods 1982-1988, the first socio-economic development plan (1989-1993), the second plan (1995-1999), and a part of the third plan (2000-2001). The results indicate that poverty increased during 1982-1988. Decomposing poverty shows that the reduction in inequality alleviated the level of poverty due to the economic recession. This implies that the reduction in the share of the lower income groups were relatively smaller than that of the higher income groups. Although the poverty increased in this period,, the poor has suffered less relative to the rich. In general, throughout the economic plans era, growth has not been pro-poor, except in the third development plan; the increase in the share of higher income groups has always been relatively more than that of the lower income groups.
Mohammad Hosein Hasani; Samad Aziznejad
Volume 9, Issue 30 , April 2007, , Pages 193-212
Abstract
Facing foreign threats in the region, Iran has been increasing its defence expenditures, for the past three decades. In this paper, we study the impact of the Iranian defence expenditures on the economic growth for the period 1971-2003. We use the Keynesian macro model to show explicitly the relationship ...
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Facing foreign threats in the region, Iran has been increasing its defence expenditures, for the past three decades. In this paper, we study the impact of the Iranian defence expenditures on the economic growth for the period 1971-2003. We use the Keynesian macro model to show explicitly the relationship between the defence expenditures and the economic growth. Our results indicate that the defence expenditures in Iran have had negative effects on the saving and the balance of trade, and therefore, on the economic growth.
Khosrow Piraee; Azadeh Ghana'atian
Volume 8, Issue 29 , February 2007, , Pages 113-141
Abstract
Economic growth and poverty alleviation have been among the most important government policies in Iran for the past three decades. This paper examines the effect of economic growth on the poverty reduction in Iran using various methodologies and approaches for the period 1995-2003 Main findings of the ...
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Economic growth and poverty alleviation have been among the most important government policies in Iran for the past three decades. This paper examines the effect of economic growth on the poverty reduction in Iran using various methodologies and approaches for the period 1995-2003 Main findings of the paper show that poverty incidence in urban and rural areas of Iran has declined, however, the intensity of poverty has declined in urban, but increased in rural areas. Furthermore, measurements of indices such as the poverty incidence,, poverty-growth curves, and the poverty equivalent growth indicate that economic growth in most years has been weakly pro-poor in both urban and rural areas, confirming the trickle down effect of growth.
Reihaneh Gaskari; Ali Reza Eghbali; Hamid Reza Hallafi
Volume 7, Issue 24 , October 2005, , Pages 77-94
Abstract
Revenues obtained through gas and oil sale compose a considerable and important part of the Iranian government revenue and the GDP. In this paper, after a brief review on oil sector and income resulting from its export, the authors study the literature pertaining to export instability and its impact ...
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Revenues obtained through gas and oil sale compose a considerable and important part of the Iranian government revenue and the GDP. In this paper, after a brief review on oil sector and income resulting from its export, the authors study the literature pertaining to export instability and its impact on economic growth. Using moving average method with a five-year lag, they found a process for export divergence from which considered as a base for instability. They suggest five definitions for instability as follows: Divergence absolute value, square root of divergence, squared divergence, divergence absolute value for one unit of the estimated amount, and negative divergence. Instability is then considered as a variable in the traditional production function of Feder, which is estimated by ARDL model using five definitions of instability. The findings indicate that there is a negative relation between the first three different definitions of instability and economic growth. Regarding the fourth definition, there is no significant relation and cointegration among the variables is also doubtful. However, regarding the fifth definition, there is a positive and considerable relation between export instability and economic growth and it seems that the fifth definition is not a suitable method to define oil export instability.
Seyed Aziz Arman; Rohollah Zare
Volume 7, Issue 24 , October 2005, , Pages 117-143
Abstract
Iran as a developing country possesses rich and extensive energy resources has an advantage in energy-intensive industries. In this research, Granger-causal relationship between economic growth in Iran and various energy carriers including oil products, electricity, natural gas and solid fuels are investigated ...
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Iran as a developing country possesses rich and extensive energy resources has an advantage in energy-intensive industries. In this research, Granger-causal relationship between economic growth in Iran and various energy carriers including oil products, electricity, natural gas and solid fuels are investigated using Toda and Yamamoto procedure for period 1967-2002.
The results reveal that there is a unidirectional Granger-causal relationship from electricity consumption and oil products consumption to economic growth. Likewise, there is a unidirectional Granger-causal relationship from economic growth to solid fuels consumption and natural gas consumption. Estimation of error correction models reveal that in the short run and long run, there is bidirectional Granger-causality between electricity consumption and economic growth. Likewise, in the long run, a unidirectional Granger-causality runs from economic growth to natural gas consumption. Therefore, in the cases that unidirectional Granger-causality runs from energy consumption to economic growth, energy conservation policies should be designed carefully in a way that utilization of such policies doesn't have diminishing effects on economic growth. Accordingly, we suggest a set of “optimal usage” and “efficient consumption” policies in economic sectors. In the cases that unidirectional Granger-causality runs from economic growth to energy consumption, energy conservation policies could be implemented without impeding economic growth.
Reza Najarzadeh; Mehran Maleki
Volume 7, Issue 23 , July 2005, , Pages 147-163
Abstract
Capital is considered to be the engine of economic growth and development. Developing countries, however, are short of this pivotal factor of economic well beings. Until not too long ago these countries used to resort to borrowings from abroad to furnish this shortage. But in recent years, ...
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Capital is considered to be the engine of economic growth and development. Developing countries, however, are short of this pivotal factor of economic well beings. Until not too long ago these countries used to resort to borrowings from abroad to furnish this shortage. But in recent years, the developing countries have faced mounting foreign debts on one hand, and their inability to payoff these debts on the other hand. They are gradually being attracted to foreign investments. In this article, the impact of FDI on economic growth has been studied. The results indicate that FDI has a positive impact on the economic growth of the five countries under study (Indonesia, Malaysia, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Iran). Moreover, the degree of this impact is influenced by the quality of the human capital of each country. This fact holds not only for FDI but also for domestic investments as well.
Ahmad Mojtahed; Saeed Javadipoor
Volume 6, Issue 19 , July 2004, , Pages 31-54
Abstract
In this article, we introduce a new concept of Health Capital, and use the augmented Solow model with data from 33 developing countries to analyze the effect of health expenditures on Economic growth. The results show that in addition to physical and human capital, health capital have positive and significant ...
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In this article, we introduce a new concept of Health Capital, and use the augmented Solow model with data from 33 developing countries to analyze the effect of health expenditures on Economic growth. The results show that in addition to physical and human capital, health capital have positive and significant effect on Economic growth, via health expenditures. Also, the Hausman test for simultaneity shows that the health expenditures variable can be affected by Economic growth.
Masoud Nili; Shahab Nafisi
Volume 5, Issue 17 , February 2004, , Pages 1-31
Abstract
Economic theory suggests a causal and positive relationship between human capital and economic growth. Empirical findings, however, report an insignificant and even negative relationship between the two, for many cases. This has been explained by some researchers as a result of neglecting the educational ...
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Economic theory suggests a causal and positive relationship between human capital and economic growth. Empirical findings, however, report an insignificant and even negative relationship between the two, for many cases. This has been explained by some researchers as a result of neglecting the educational distribution of labour force. In this paper, the significance of this explanation has been examined for the case of Iran. We have shown that, while the relationship between human capital and economic growth is significant and positive, it is statistically improved when the educational distribution of labour force is added to the model.
According to our findings, policy should give more priority to primary and secondary education as opposed to higher education.
