Saeed Rasekhy; Amir Khanalipour
Volume 13, Issue 40 , October 2009, , Pages 29-57
Abstract
Stock markets are strong means of attracting savings and directing them to investors، but their rate of returns are subject to fluctuations much higher than other economic variables. This paper is to examine of the volatility in the Tehran stock marketusing the conditional heteroscedasticity technique ...
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Stock markets are strong means of attracting savings and directing them to investors، but their rate of returns are subject to fluctuations much higher than other economic variables. This paper is to examine of the volatility in the Tehran stock marketusing the conditional heteroscedasticity technique for the period 1370:0-1386:06. Based on the results obtained، (1) distribution of the return has positive skewness indicating that market players consider occurrence of negative returns more likely. (2) Return series is not normaly distributed and has more height than normal curve. (3) Calendar has no significant effect on return with the exception of second، fifth and ninth months of the year. (4) Weak Information efficiency is rejected. Thus، not all market factors transact professionally and، the information and the news affect stock price with a time delay. (5) Inflation has positive effect on returns fluctuations، but is not significant . (6) Exchange rate (Rials/$) has positive and significant but samll effect on return fluctuations. The small effect is probably due to the fact that there is only a little share of Dollar in shareholders portfolio. Finally، (7) Assumption of normal distribution for residuals is not suitable. In contrast، t and general error distributions if surplus kurtosis is considered are proper assumptionsGovernments can play have an important role in affecting the demand for planning and preparing the food these security through their protection policies such as providing subsidies. subsidizing the main or basic categories of food in the same time subsidies will increase the government expenditure،therefore، it is necessary to set goals carefully. However، as subsidies will increase government expenditure and will cost the economy، they should be targeted to people who need them the most. In this article، we estimate the demand for main or basic foods، (i.e.bread، meat، milk، oil and sugar) have been estimated by using AIDS Model and taking into account household budget survey data in urban areas and consumer price index through two stage model and cointegration for the periodyears 1363-1384. At every stage، estimation was done for both the short-run and the long-run and the homogenous constraint and symmetric have been examined by Wald test. As an instrument of analysis، We obtain price elasticity، income elasticity and cross price elasticity of demand have been calculated forin the short-run and the long-run. The results show that reducing subsidies on these goods would put a pressure on consumer expenditure through the rise in the prices. However، changes in the structurel of subsidies with a gradual reduction in the amount of subsidies for bread، oil and sugar and directing them payment toward meat and milk within a structured goal is recommended.will be more beneficial.
Saeed Karimi; Saeed Rasekhi; Mojtaba Ehsani
Volume 13, Issue 39 , July 2009, , Pages 147-166
Abstract
Governments have an important role in planning and preparing the food these security through protection policies such as subsidizing the basic food in the same time pay subsidies it will increase the government expenditure,and hence, it is necessary to set specific goals carefully. In this article, the ...
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Governments have an important role in planning and preparing the food these security through protection policies such as subsidizing the basic food in the same time pay subsidies it will increase the government expenditure,and hence, it is necessary to set specific goals carefully. In this article, the demand for main or basic foods, (i.e.bread, meat, milk, edible, oil and sugar) have been estimated by using AIDS Model and taking into account household budget in urban areas and consumer price index through two stage model and cointegration for the years 1934-2005. & estimation was done for both the short-run and the long-run and the homogenous constraint and symmetric have been examined by Wald test. As an instrument of analysis, price elasticity, income elasticity and cross price elasticity of demand have been calculated for the short-run and the long-run. The results show that reducing subsidies on these goods would put a pressure on consumer expenditure through the rise in the prices. However, changes in the structure of subsidies with a gradual reduction in the amount of subsidies for bread, edible oil and sugar and directing the payment toward meat and milk within a specific goal is recommended.
Mahmood Khataei; Parvin Eghdami
Volume 7, Issue 25 , February 2006, , Pages 23-46
Abstract
In this paper, using ARDL method, price elasticity of demand for gasoline is estimated for period 1980-2002. The elasticity is forecasted for he period 2003-2015. The results show that there is a negative and weak relation between real price gasoline (RPG) and gasoline demand. If the RPG rises one unit ...
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In this paper, using ARDL method, price elasticity of demand for gasoline is estimated for period 1980-2002. The elasticity is forecasted for he period 2003-2015. The results show that there is a negative and weak relation between real price gasoline (RPG) and gasoline demand. If the RPG rises one unit (200 Rials in nominal price), the gasoline demand would fall 18.5 units (1850 million liters) per year. It seems the reason foe such a low effect is the government polices to keep nominal price of gasoline (NPG) lower than international one. At such a low price, the demand elasticity is very low. In order to forecast the gasoline demand elasticity, three scenarios for NPG rises are considered. The results indicate that, by a 10% annual rise in the NPG, the gasoline demand elasticity would decrease. By a 30% annual rise in the NPG per year, gasoline demand elasticity would increase slowly reaching -0.50 in the last year by forecast. By a 50% annual rise in the NPG per year, gasoline demand elasticity would increase rapidly and it would reach to less than -1.
abbas shakeri; Mir Hossein Mousavi
Volume 5, Issue 17 , February 2004, , Pages 57-78
Abstract
Tax income is the most important source of income for government after the oil income in Iran. The tax system, however, suffers from two factors: long lags, and inflexibility. In this paper, we investigate the efficiency in the Iranian tax system with respect to the two factors above using cointegration ...
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Tax income is the most important source of income for government after the oil income in Iran. The tax system, however, suffers from two factors: long lags, and inflexibility. In this paper, we investigate the efficiency in the Iranian tax system with respect to the two factors above using cointegration analysis for period 1982:3-2002:4. The results indicate that in the long run there is a twenty-two-month lag in tax collection, and, 9-18 month lag in short term. Since the tax system is not flexible enough in response to price changes, this time lag in tax collection along with inflation has led to a decline in real income tax.
Masoud Nili
Volume 5, Issue 14 , April 2003, , Pages 27-38
Abstract
In this paper, based on the annual househald budget survey and by using the input-output table, the main characteristics of the demand side of the domestic product market are analyzed. This has been exercised for different income groups. We have then, estimated the price and income elasticities for different ...
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In this paper, based on the annual househald budget survey and by using the input-output table, the main characteristics of the demand side of the domestic product market are analyzed. This has been exercised for different income groups. We have then, estimated the price and income elasticities for different product groups, with the use af an Almost Ideal Demand System model.
