Elham Kheirandish; Saeed Moshiri; Naser Khiabani; Ahmadreza Jalali-Naini
Abstract
Oil price shocks have direct and indirect impacts on the economies of oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. The direct impacts are through demand and supply channels and the indirect (spillover) impacts are through interaction between the countries. Most studies have focused on the direct effects ...
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Oil price shocks have direct and indirect impacts on the economies of oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. The direct impacts are through demand and supply channels and the indirect (spillover) impacts are through interaction between the countries. Most studies have focused on the direct effects of the oil price shocks in a specific country or a region and research works on indirect impacts are limited. In this research, the direct and indirect effects (spillover) of oil shocks on both groups of oil-exporting and oil-importing countries are estimated using a dynamic system model. The spillover effects are defined and measured by the “Trade Ratio” and “Weighted Average Economic Growth” indicators. The sample includes 30 oil-exporting and oil-importing countries with a share of 73 percent of the world’s economy. The results show that a positive oil price shock reduces economic growth in oil-importing countries and increases it in oil-exporting countries, but international trade between the oil- exporting and oil-importing countries mitigates the impact of oil shocks on economic growth of both groups.
Akbar Komaijani; Mohammad Nad Ali
Volume 7, Issue 23 , July 2005, , Pages 1-37
Abstract
The main goal of this paper is to examine an appropriate exchange rate regime in Iran. Most of the studies in Iranian economy have suggested a flexible exchange rate regime with a coordination between monetary and exchange rate policies.
In this paper, we test the hypothesis that ...
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The main goal of this paper is to examine an appropriate exchange rate regime in Iran. Most of the studies in Iranian economy have suggested a flexible exchange rate regime with a coordination between monetary and exchange rate policies.
In this paper, we test the hypothesis that the managed exchange rate regime is the most appropriate regime for Iran using the Mundell-Fleming Model, and 3SLS method for the period 1974-2001.
The estimated macro-econometrics model has been used to simulate the reaction of five exchange rate regimes to oil shocks. The results reveal that the managed exchange rates in terms of trade balance and purchasing power parity are expected to yield a more stable prices and non-oil GDP growth rates. In contrast, a quasi-floating exchange rate regime, in which the exchange rate is determined by the percentage of trade balance deviations, will result in the worst kind of volitility in non-oil GDP and inflation rates at the time of oil shocks.
