Health Economics
Soheil Roudari; Masoud Homayounifar
Abstract
The present study investigates the effect of coronavirus outbreak and exchange rate and oil price variables on the stock market index using Markov Switching model during the period 1398/11/30 – 1399/03/27. The results show that exchange rate growth has no significant effect in the high regime ...
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The present study investigates the effect of coronavirus outbreak and exchange rate and oil price variables on the stock market index using Markov Switching model during the period 1398/11/30 – 1399/03/27. The results show that exchange rate growth has no significant effect in the high regime of the stock market index and has a negative and significant impact in the low and medium regimes. The growth of oil prices has had a negative and significant effect on all stock market index regimes. Also, in the high regime of the stock market index, the prevalence and increase in the coronavirus cases will lead to a decrease in the stock market index, and on the contrary, in the low regime of the stock market index, the prevalence and increase in the coronavirus cases will increase the stock market index. In the high regime of the stock market index, the coronavirus outbreak can lead to a decrease in the stock market index and the outflow of capital from the stock market and transfer to other parallel markets such as currency and housing can occur, and speculation increases.
Behzad Alipour; Mehdi Pedram; Iman Charghanian
Volume 18, Issue 54 , April 2013, , Pages 27-53
Abstract
We analyse short-run and long-run effects of government size on the economic growth of Iran ,using 1353-90 time series .the results of estimation , by using of ARDL and boundaries testing approach, indicate convergence of the dynamic model to the long-run trend. The error correction model also ...
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We analyse short-run and long-run effects of government size on the economic growth of Iran ,using 1353-90 time series .the results of estimation , by using of ARDL and boundaries testing approach, indicate convergence of the dynamic model to the long-run trend. The error correction model also show that 59 present of departure from the long-run trend will be corrected in every period. The long-run estimation shows a positive relation between oil price, oil revenues and ratio of investment to the real GDP as independent variables and economic growth as dependent variable, and a negative relation between government size and a dummy variable for war and revolution as independent variables and economic growth.
Majid Sameti; Bahareh Teimouri
Volume 17, Issue 50 , April 2012, , Pages 99-137
Abstract
We employ the modelling strategy of Garratt, Lee, Pesaran and Shin (2003a) to estimate a structural cointegrating VARX* model for Iran in which core macroeconomic variables of the Iranian economy are related to current and lagged values of a number of key foreign variables. The long run macroeconomic ...
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We employ the modelling strategy of Garratt, Lee, Pesaran and Shin (2003a) to estimate a structural cointegrating VARX* model for Iran in which core macroeconomic variables of the Iranian economy are related to current and lagged values of a number of key foreign variables. The long run macroeconomic relations for real money balances, interest rates, output, prices and exchange rates are identified and tested within this framework over the period 1979Q1-2007Q4. We make use of generalised impulse response functions to analyze the dynamic properties of the model following a shock to exogenous variables (oil prices and foreign interest rates). We also examine via the persistence profiles, the speed of adjustments to the long run relations following a system-wide shock. The results show that money demand relation and UIP-PPP (international parity conditions jointly) are not rejected within the model. Furthermore, these two long run relations have well-behaved persistence profiles in which the effects of system wide-shocks on the long run relations are transitory and die out eventually. However, both UIP-PPP and the money demand relations exhibit sluggish rates of adjustments to shocks. We also provide evidence for the excessive importance of oil price shocks for Iranian economy in our impulse response analysis.
Ali Emami Meibodi; Mohammad Shamsoddin
Volume 14, Issue 43 , July 2010, , Pages 81-109
Abstract
The introduction of the new oil exchanges and development of oil derivatives transactions have dramatically changed the mechanism of oil price movements. Expectations of monetary policies and directions of money flows between the financial and commodity markets have played fundamental roles in deriving ...
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The introduction of the new oil exchanges and development of oil derivatives transactions have dramatically changed the mechanism of oil price movements. Expectations of monetary policies and directions of money flows between the financial and commodity markets have played fundamental roles in deriving the oil prices in the world markets.This paper investigates the effect of the U.S. monetary policy on the real prices of oil and the real revenues of the OPEC member countries using the Dornbusch’s overshooting model. The results show the negative long run Co-integration between oil prices and the U.S. interest rates. The results of the Random Effect Model also reveal that the difference between the real interest rates of the U.S. and that of the OPEC members has a negative impact on the oil revenues of the OPEC members.
Ali Emami Meibodi
Volume 8, Issue 28 , October 2006, , Pages 107-122
Abstract
The crude oil price has shown some drastic changes since 1950. In a competitive or monopoly market one would expect that the real price to rise steadily as the marginal cost rises, not to jump sharply. Is it possible to explain these large movements in the oil prices on the basis of economic theory of ...
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The crude oil price has shown some drastic changes since 1950. In a competitive or monopoly market one would expect that the real price to rise steadily as the marginal cost rises, not to jump sharply. Is it possible to explain these large movements in the oil prices on the basis of economic theory of resource depletion? If we can understand the real reasons of the past oil price movements, we can hope to be able to foresee what may happen in the future.
In this paper, the Hotelling-type model (Robinson, 1975 & Ulph, 1984) has been applied to analyse the factors effecting oil price movements.
