Mohsen Mehrara; Alireza Abdi
Volume 9, Issue 31 , July 2007, , Pages 1-26
Abstract
This paper studies the impact of Rial's real devaluation and scale variables (domestic and foreign real income) on Iran's trade balance using the Johansen-Juselius and ARDL methods for the period 1338-1383 (1960-2004).
According to co-integration tests results, trade balance variables, ...
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This paper studies the impact of Rial's real devaluation and scale variables (domestic and foreign real income) on Iran's trade balance using the Johansen-Juselius and ARDL methods for the period 1338-1383 (1960-2004).
According to co-integration tests results, trade balance variables, domestic and foreign income, and black market exchange rates are co-integrated indicating a long run equilibrium relationship among them. Moreover, all the long and short run coefficients have expected signs and are stable during the sample period. However, the official exchange rate is not able to explain trade balance fluctuations satisfactorily in this period. The results of co-integration tests reject the null of long run equilibrium relationship among trade balance, scale variables and official exchange rate. The diagnostic tests in the error correction models with official rate imply serious mis specifications as well. The study suggests the need to monitoring the black market rather than official exchange rate.
seyed komail tayebi; Khadije Nasrollahi
Volume 4, Issue 13 , February 2003, , Pages 109-133
Abstract
With the view of the shortcoming of purchasing power parity (PPP)approach in interpreting the behavior of LRER in many Developing Countries in last decades, new literature, emphasized on the role of fundamental variables in determination of LRER. These factors from both sides of the supply ...
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With the view of the shortcoming of purchasing power parity (PPP)approach in interpreting the behavior of LRER in many Developing Countries in last decades, new literature, emphasized on the role of fundamental variables in determination of LRER. These factors from both sides of the supply and demand of the economy structure, includes government fiscal policies, international financial assessment, changes in productivity growth, fluctuation of terms of trade and trade policies are the fundamental variables in this regard.
In the case of Iran, while some studies concentrate on determinants of LRER, some others which is in relation with PPP. Approach has concluded that results depend on the period of the study, the types of data and the approach of test.
In this study, total productivity of factors (TPF) of production, the ratio current expenditures to development expenditures used as an index of government fiscal policy, domestic terms of trade, ratio of Central Bank exchange reserves to the base money and an index of import-intensive of investment have taken into account as the determinants of the LRER in Iran. The long-run effects of these variables on the behavior of LRER have been determined by the use of economic methods and then have been analyzed.
In addition, with the attention to the structure of the exchange market in Iran, there have been at least five real exchange rates in the form of real effective formal exchange rate, real effective parallel exchange rate, real effective export exchange rate, real effective recievement exchange rate and real effective payment exchange rate which investigated respectively. Hence, variety of measures should be calculated and interpreted to permint crosschecks in the study. The research illustrate that the direction of the effects of each of these variables depend on which type of real exchange rate has been used. However, another result is that, in the short-run diseqilibrium in all of the cases of real exchange rate would be eliminated except that of parallel market, because of the role of expectation in this market.
