Enayatollah Fakhrai; Farrokh Norroozy
Volume 9, Issue 30 , April 2007, , Pages 119-135
Abstract
Rice is an important item in the Iranian agricultural product imports. This paper presents the estimation of an error correction model of linear approximation of the Almost Ideal Demand System for various kinds of imported rice, including Pakistanian, Thai, and others, as well as Iranian rice. The period ...
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Rice is an important item in the Iranian agricultural product imports. This paper presents the estimation of an error correction model of linear approximation of the Almost Ideal Demand System for various kinds of imported rice, including Pakistanian, Thai, and others, as well as Iranian rice. The period of the study covers the period1981-2004. The findings of the research show that short-run and long-run Marshalian own price elasticities are negative except for that of Pakistanian rice wich has a positive elastivity in the short-run, though very close to zero. The short-run Hicksian own price elasticities are all negative and close to those of Marshalian ones, except for Pakistanian rice which is positive in both cases. The Hicksian cross elasticties indicate that all Pakistanian and Thai rice are imported by government in response to the shortages in the domestic market. That is the complementarity of the domestic and the imported rice is not due to the consumer preferances.
Mohammad Hosein Hasani; Samad Aziznejad
Volume 9, Issue 30 , April 2007, , Pages 193-212
Abstract
Facing foreign threats in the region, Iran has been increasing its defence expenditures, for the past three decades. In this paper, we study the impact of the Iranian defence expenditures on the economic growth for the period 1971-2003. We use the Keynesian macro model to show explicitly the relationship ...
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Facing foreign threats in the region, Iran has been increasing its defence expenditures, for the past three decades. In this paper, we study the impact of the Iranian defence expenditures on the economic growth for the period 1971-2003. We use the Keynesian macro model to show explicitly the relationship between the defence expenditures and the economic growth. Our results indicate that the defence expenditures in Iran have had negative effects on the saving and the balance of trade, and therefore, on the economic growth.
Ali Sadeghzadeh Yazdi; Ahmad Jafari Samimi; Zahra(Mila) Elmi
Volume 8, Issue 29 , February 2007, , Pages 1-15
Abstract
Demand for money is an important part of the macroeconomic models and the monetary policy. In this paper, we estimate the Iranian demand for money for the period 1958-2003 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method.
The results show that the real money balance, gross domestic ...
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Demand for money is an important part of the macroeconomic models and the monetary policy. In this paper, we estimate the Iranian demand for money for the period 1958-2003 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method.
The results show that the real money balance, gross domestic product, inflation, foreign exchange rate, and government budget deficit have been co-integrated with each other. We also use the error correction model for short-run dynamic analysis. The result shows the speed of adjustment toward the long-run balance is slow.
Karim Eslamloueyan; Hashem Zare
Volume 8, Issue 29 , February 2007, , Pages 17-46
Abstract
This paper uses a quarterly data to study the effect of the main economic variables on the stock price index in Iran over the period 1993:3–2003:2. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration analysis is used to study both short- and long-run movements of stock prices in ...
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This paper uses a quarterly data to study the effect of the main economic variables on the stock price index in Iran over the period 1993:3–2003:2. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration analysis is used to study both short- and long-run movements of stock prices in Tehran stock market. The explanatory variables include money supply, production level of large manufacturing companies, and the ratio of domestic to foreign price level, exchange rate, oil price, gold coin price, and housing price index.
The results show that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables. According to our finding, the ratio of domestic to foreign price levels, the price of housing and the gold coin price index have positive impacts on the stock prices. Exchange rate and money supply have significant negative effects on the stock price index in Iran. However, we found that the production level of large manufacturing companies has not affected the stock price index. The result of our error correction model indicated that 54 percent of deviation of the stock price from its equilibrium path is corrected each period.
Hasan Taee
Volume 8, Issue 29 , February 2007, , Pages 93-112
Abstract
Our objective in this paper is to estimate the labour supply function in Iran based on gender and area. We use the Iranian Statistical Centre micro data containing Socio-economic characteristics of households for the period 1992-1995. The estimation results indicate that labor income is the ...
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Our objective in this paper is to estimate the labour supply function in Iran based on gender and area. We use the Iranian Statistical Centre micro data containing Socio-economic characteristics of households for the period 1992-1995. The estimation results indicate that labor income is the key variable affecting the allocation of time between work and leisure for both male and female. However, the elasticity of wage for female is higher than male.
The Important difference between the female and the male behavior in the labour market is related to their level of education, which has negative effect on the male’s labour supply and positive effect on the female’s labour supply. Given the fact that the level of education among females in Iran is rapidly rising, females are expected to play a key role in the future labour market in Iran.
Bijan Baseri; Esfandiar Jahangard
Volume 8, Issue 28 , October 2006, , Pages 61-85
Abstract
In this paper, we investigate the effects of technological changes on employment in the Iranian manufacturing industries. We estimate an empirical relationship between R&D spending as a proxy of technological change and skiledl and unskilled employment across the manufacturing industries. We use ...
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In this paper, we investigate the effects of technological changes on employment in the Iranian manufacturing industries. We estimate an empirical relationship between R&D spending as a proxy of technological change and skiledl and unskilled employment across the manufacturing industries. We use the survey data on the four-digit large manufacturing industries for the period 1995-2000. In order to control for the heterogeneity among different industry groups, we use the multilevel model estimation. Our findings show a positive correlation of various measures of technology with the skill structure suggesting that technology is, on average, biased towards skilled labor. In other words, technological progress is complimentary with skilled labor and has a weak relation to unskilled employment in various activities.
Mohammad Reza Abedin; Mitra Rahmani; Hossein Mohammad Saeid
Volume 8, Issue 28 , October 2006, , Pages 195-217
Abstract
In this paper, the trade potentials between Iran and GCC are identified by employing gravity models. Moreover, the Comparative Advantage Index of Iran and GCC countries are calculated from 1997 to 2001.
The result of this study shows that Iran can increase its exports to the GCC countries ...
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In this paper, the trade potentials between Iran and GCC are identified by employing gravity models. Moreover, the Comparative Advantage Index of Iran and GCC countries are calculated from 1997 to 2001.
The result of this study shows that Iran can increase its exports to the GCC countries to 652 million US$ and also raise its imports to 642 million US$, implying significant differences between trade potentials and trade performances.
Esfandiar Jahangard
Volume 7, Issue 25 , February 2006, , Pages 83-107
Abstract
Technology has long been considered very important to contribute to economic growth through productivity improvement. The empirical studies indicate that the contribution of information technology(IT) to growth in developed and some developing countries over the second half of the 1990s has been ...
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Technology has long been considered very important to contribute to economic growth through productivity improvement. The empirical studies indicate that the contribution of information technology(IT) to growth in developed and some developing countries over the second half of the 1990s has been significant. There is still room for more investigation, specially in developing countries where the socio-economic infrastructure may not fully support the IT and economic growth relationship. This study uses an explicit production function to estimate the elasticity of IT factors in the Iranian manufacturing industry using the panel data method covering the period 2000-2001.
Reveal that IT has had a positive and significant effect on the production in the Iranian manufacturing industry. Our results suggest that an increase in IT expenditure beside improving complementary factors will eventually lead to higher labour productivity and growth in manufacturing industry.
Mahmood Khataei; Roya Seifipoor
Volume 7, Issue 24 , October 2005, , Pages 53-76
Abstract
In Iran, financial market is heavily dominated by the government. The big share of market is owned and run by government, particularly in banking sector. In effect the range of interest rates for different deposits and loans in banks are fixed by Islamic Republic of Iran Central Bank (IRICB). Since the ...
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In Iran, financial market is heavily dominated by the government. The big share of market is owned and run by government, particularly in banking sector. In effect the range of interest rates for different deposits and loans in banks are fixed by Islamic Republic of Iran Central Bank (IRICB). Since the rates are well below the equilibrium levels, selective credit policies are common components of financial restriction in Iran. In other words credit rationing is implemented in official market. Under such circumstances, a black marker for deposits & loans is formed. It operates with very higher interest rates, but very efficient with respect to decision making process. The two official and non- official (black market) markets form the two – sector financial system of Iran. Each sector is managed with different rules and policies. As a result some well known rules in monetary policy do not work in the expected way in Iran. In particular decreasing interest rate policy in official market does not boost the demand through investment. We show theoretically the subject by a modified version of Loanable Funds Theory for a two – sector financial market. Moreover an estimated Iran investment function confirms empirically the theoretical approach. Engle – Granger Test confirms the results too. Also financial repression in Iran causes some transfer payments by deposit owners to those receive loans in official market which could be as high as over %10 of GDP. The policy implication to be adopted by policy makers is a well known deregulation policy which results in integration of the two markets.
Seyed Aziz Arman; Rohollah Zare
Volume 7, Issue 24 , October 2005, , Pages 117-143
Abstract
Iran as a developing country possesses rich and extensive energy resources has an advantage in energy-intensive industries. In this research, Granger-causal relationship between economic growth in Iran and various energy carriers including oil products, electricity, natural gas and solid fuels are investigated ...
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Iran as a developing country possesses rich and extensive energy resources has an advantage in energy-intensive industries. In this research, Granger-causal relationship between economic growth in Iran and various energy carriers including oil products, electricity, natural gas and solid fuels are investigated using Toda and Yamamoto procedure for period 1967-2002.
The results reveal that there is a unidirectional Granger-causal relationship from electricity consumption and oil products consumption to economic growth. Likewise, there is a unidirectional Granger-causal relationship from economic growth to solid fuels consumption and natural gas consumption. Estimation of error correction models reveal that in the short run and long run, there is bidirectional Granger-causality between electricity consumption and economic growth. Likewise, in the long run, a unidirectional Granger-causality runs from economic growth to natural gas consumption. Therefore, in the cases that unidirectional Granger-causality runs from energy consumption to economic growth, energy conservation policies should be designed carefully in a way that utilization of such policies doesn't have diminishing effects on economic growth. Accordingly, we suggest a set of “optimal usage” and “efficient consumption” policies in economic sectors. In the cases that unidirectional Granger-causality runs from economic growth to energy consumption, energy conservation policies could be implemented without impeding economic growth.
Abolghasem Mahdavi; Mehran Malekshahian
Volume 6, Issue 21 , February 2005, , Pages 91-113
Abstract
To measure the comparative advantage, different indexes have been suggested by economists. In this paper we investigate the “revealed comparative advantage” for the products of the Iranian Petrochemical Industry using the Ballasa and Vollrath index. The results show that Iran ...
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To measure the comparative advantage, different indexes have been suggested by economists. In this paper we investigate the “revealed comparative advantage” for the products of the Iranian Petrochemical Industry using the Ballasa and Vollrath index. The results show that Iran gains comparative advantage in exporting the products of petrochemical industry. The share of these exports from the whole manufacturing exports of the country, based on the paper’s calculation results, is shown to be increasing.
Zakria Farajzadeh; Bahaeddin Najafi
Volume 6, Issue 20 , October 2004, , Pages 135-156
Abstract
Subsidizing is one of the income transfer channels that are mainly paid in order to protect low-income groups and improve the income distribution. Budgetary constraints of developing countries and necessity of providing the poor with their basic needs are the main reasons of targeting subsidies. ...
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Subsidizing is one of the income transfer channels that are mainly paid in order to protect low-income groups and improve the income distribution. Budgetary constraints of developing countries and necessity of providing the poor with their basic needs are the main reasons of targeting subsidies. Evaluating the current consumption pattern of choosen commodities indicates a significant difference between rural and urban deciles in terms of physical amount and allocated expenditures. So, in terms of quality and quantity, higher income deciles are now more benefited. Consumption behavior of rural and urban consumers also revealed that the subsidized commodities are consumed as a complementary set. Impact of increasing price of the subsidized commodities on calorie intakes, income of deciles and poverty indices was investigated by using different scenarios of price increment. The nutritional effects of increasing price of all commodities together show that rural consumers is affected more than urban ones. In terms of calorie intakes through the most of deciles, increment of rice price affect urban consumers more than rural consumers and in the case of bread a reverse trend is observed. Among the rural and urban income deciles reduction in calorie intakes is also relatively irregular. Considering the income effects of increasing price of sugar and bread indicate that rural consumers experience a more reduction in income relative to urban consumers. The price increment of rice and all commodities together mainly affect low-income deciles in urban regions and high income deciles in rural regions. Based on the results, it is suggested that income deciles in both rural and urban regions to be recognized and subsidized commodities to be distributed among the deciles located under poverty line. However, in case of reduction in subsidies, it should take place by selected commodities and gradually.
Ebrahim Hadian; Mohammadreza Hashempour
Volume 5, Issue 15 , July 2003, , Pages 93-120
Abstract
This paper has decomposed, statistically, the real GDP of Iran into three components, long run trend, business cycles and short-run shocks. This is devoted to the empirical measurement, identification and causes of the business cycles. It also estimates GDP growth on the basis of estimated trend, business ...
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This paper has decomposed, statistically, the real GDP of Iran into three components, long run trend, business cycles and short-run shocks. This is devoted to the empirical measurement, identification and causes of the business cycles. It also estimates GDP growth on the basis of estimated trend, business cycle and irregular component.The methodology consists of three steps: The first, to dissect the real GDP to get its components, the second, empirical investigation of the business cycles which involve identification and causes, and the third, to predict the components into future. First is assumed that annual series of real GDP is an aggregate of three components including trend, cyclical movements and irregular movements. The HP filter is used in two stages to separate these components; a) to extract the long run trend from the original series and b) to filter out cycles from the rest. Second, the main macro variables are tested in terms of co movement volatility. And finally, the trend and cycles into future over a five-year period are estimated using ARIMA.It is found that the trend growth of real GDP is negative, during the periods of 1356-61 and 1364-67 Iranian years. The results also show that the economy of Iran has undergone seven complete business cycles, and it is now facing the recessionary phase of an eight business cycle, which has begun in the early 1380. It is projected that the current recession will continue until 1383 (2004), and then recovery will take place.It is also found that the Iranian economy is cyclical in a BC sense.Statistically, the results show that the GDP cycles last, on average, 6 years.We also showed the existence of co movement between GDP and the most relevant macro variables. In other words, the main aggregates are also cyclical and their peaks and troughs occur at more or less the same quarters as the GDP.Finally, the results indicate that investment and exports have an active role in generating cycles. Most major finding is that the Iran BCs are caused by shifts in oil revenues. The evidence shows that this variable composes all the characteristics of the typical causes and leads the GDP movements.
