Alireza Kazerooni; Hadi Mojiri
Volume 15, Issue 45 , February 2011, , Pages 77-102
Abstract
This study empirically analyses bilateral J-curve dynamics of Iran with her six trading partners using time series data over the period 1979 - 2005. Short and long - run impacts of the depreciation of Iranian Rial on the trade balance between Iran and her six trading partners are estimated by using ...
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This study empirically analyses bilateral J-curve dynamics of Iran with her six trading partners using time series data over the period 1979 - 2005. Short and long - run impacts of the depreciation of Iranian Rial on the trade balance between Iran and her six trading partners are estimated by using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach and Error Correction Model (ECM). The empirical results indicate that there is J-curve effect in the short-run between Iran with China and UAE, but in the long - run, the real depreciation of the Iranian Rial has positive impact on trade balance with UAE. The stability of the long-run trade balance equations are tested by using CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests.
Ali Mohammad Kimiagari; Reza Manuchehri Rad
Volume 15, Issue 45 , February 2011, , Pages 139-180
Abstract
One of the most fundamental outputs of social security systems is the redistribution mechanism. With moving from FUND to PAYG position and vice versa, the system shows intergenerational redistribuation and within-cohort redistribuation effects, depends on financial organization. According to the law, ...
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One of the most fundamental outputs of social security systems is the redistribution mechanism. With moving from FUND to PAYG position and vice versa, the system shows intergenerational redistribuation and within-cohort redistribuation effects, depends on financial organization. According to the law, the mechanism considered for social security system in IRAN is FUND. Thus, we expect within-cohort redistribuation. This research tests this important note with evaluating insured individual accounts. The resualts show, in different target population deciles, internal rate of return (IRR) is 47 to 85% with average 53% and benefit – cost ratio (B/C) is 2.6 to 10.3 with average 3.7. This indicates that the necessary investment rate is 53%, while with current optimistic assessment, this rate is 30% for long-term, which shows intergenerational redistribuation. The effect inflation increase on redistribution test indicates current and future generation losses and also intensifying intergenerational redistribuation
Hossein Mehrabi Boshrabadi; Somayeh Kouchakzadeh; Hamid taboli
Volume 15, Issue 45 , February 2011, , Pages 181-198
Abstract
One of the main concerns that many countries of the world are encountering, is some economic activities which are usually hidden from official view. These activities could effect deviation from correct position and prescribe incorrect polices.
In this study, after short review on concept and different ...
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One of the main concerns that many countries of the world are encountering, is some economic activities which are usually hidden from official view. These activities could effect deviation from correct position and prescribe incorrect polices.
In this study, after short review on concept and different distances of shadow economy to try that investigated effects of shadow economy volume on economic growth for 1981-2007 by vector error correction model (VECM). Shadow economy was estimated by fuzzy logic method. Results indicated that in Iran, with increase of one percentage size of shadow economy, 0/38 percentage diminished economic growth.
Vahid Mehrabani
Volume 15, Issue 45 , February 2011, , Pages 199-220
Abstract
Regulations making is one of the forms of government interventions in economy. Regulations can change business environment and hence employment, production and productivity. Labor Law is one of the important forms of regulations in Iran that was modified in 1369 in favour of labor. Some studies show ...
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Regulations making is one of the forms of government interventions in economy. Regulations can change business environment and hence employment, production and productivity. Labor Law is one of the important forms of regulations in Iran that was modified in 1369 in favour of labor. Some studies show that the reduction of labor demand in industry has been the outcome of this amendment. We estimate the labor productivity in the Iranian Industries using the fixed effect method. The results of current study suggest that the amended labor law has increased productivity of all industries but wood industry.
Rasul Bakhshi Dastjerdi; Fateme Abolhasani Targhi
Volume 15, Issue 44 , October 2010, , Pages 35-66
Abstract
It is assumed that major factors of production are all in full employment condition in the Iranian economy. Land sector, however, indicates a rather peculiar situation, as it seems to be in a disequilibrium condition. On the one hand the need for housing and business indicates a high demand for urban ...
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It is assumed that major factors of production are all in full employment condition in the Iranian economy. Land sector, however, indicates a rather peculiar situation, as it seems to be in a disequilibrium condition. On the one hand the need for housing and business indicates a high demand for urban hand, while on the other hand the supply of building are limited with many lots held as idle, and not supplied in the market. It seems that regulating land sector would have positive impact on economic activities. In this study, we apply a dynamic computable general equilibrium framework to study the land tax effects on the economy. We show that land tax is a neutral tax without any distorting effects, increasing Iran's GNP, per capita saving and per capita welfare indices by 0.32, 0.33, 0.647 and 0.2 percent, nespectinely in the long run.
Seyed Kamal Sadeghi; Majid Feshari
Volume 15, Issue 44 , October 2010, , Pages 67-83
Abstract
The main objective of this study is to estimate the long-run relationship between exports and environment quality indices for Iran over the period 1971-2007. In this study, the CO2 emissions and arable land are used as a proxy for the environmental quality. We estimate the model using the multivariate ...
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The main objective of this study is to estimate the long-run relationship between exports and environment quality indices for Iran over the period 1971-2007. In this study, the CO2 emissions and arable land are used as a proxy for the environmental quality. We estimate the model using the multivariate Johansen's co-integration technique. The results reveal that there is a long-run relationship between exports and CO2 emissions and arable land. Moreover, the variables of exports and FDI have negative and significant effects on the environmental quality indices.
Firooz Falahi; jalal montazeri shoorekchali
Volume 15, Issue 44 , October 2010, , Pages 111-133
Abstract
The annual data on economic growth and energy consumption in Iran during the period 1352-1386 is used to study the effect of energy use on the growth of Iranian economy. To that end, a smooth transition regression model is used. The selected model has two regimes and two thresholds. Regime one starts ...
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The annual data on economic growth and energy consumption in Iran during the period 1352-1386 is used to study the effect of energy use on the growth of Iranian economy. To that end, a smooth transition regression model is used. The selected model has two regimes and two thresholds. Regime one starts from 1353 and ends in 1362; while the second regime covers the period 1363-1386. The results show that the energy use had a negative effect on the economic growth in both regimes, and that the effect is larger in the first regime. Therefore, based on these results the growth hypothesis does not hold in the Iranian economy. This could be considered as a sign of inefficient use of energy in Iran.
Gholamreza Keshavarz Haddad; MohamadReza Satari
Volume 15, Issue 44 , October 2010, , Pages 135-171
Abstract
Following the fisher’s hypothesis about the relationship between asset returns and inflation, numerous studies have tried to test the hypothesis with various data sets. Contradiction in the findings resulted to the proxy hypothesis of Fama (1981). In present article, survey the theoretical and ...
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Following the fisher’s hypothesis about the relationship between asset returns and inflation, numerous studies have tried to test the hypothesis with various data sets. Contradiction in the findings resulted to the proxy hypothesis of Fama (1981). In present article, survey the theoretical and empirical literature, and conduct a test for inflation hedging ability of land, gold and stock in Iran. Considering the seasonal characteristics of the data (1385-1355), we use the HEGY (1990) unit root test, and VECM methodology to estimate long and short run relationships. Our findings show that in the long run, all three types of assets hedge against inflation. However, in the short run, we observe that money reserve, oil prices and real GDP are significant determinants of the assets returns.
Teimor Mohamadi; Leila Hoseini
Volume 15, Issue 44 , October 2010, , Pages 173-198
Abstract
This paper surveys theoretical foundation and empirical results of demand for smoking: Theoretical foundation is based on a model of habit effects .Empirical results is based on a regression for smoking demand in Iran ...
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This paper surveys theoretical foundation and empirical results of demand for smoking: Theoretical foundation is based on a model of habit effects .Empirical results is based on a regression for smoking demand in Iran for the period 1363-1379 (1984-2000). The quantity demanded is determinded by price ,income ,literacy, unemployment and divorce rates .The elasticity of demand with respect to first four variables are -0.27, 0.44, 0.2 and -2.54, respectively.The divorce rate is not significant.Thus cigarette is an inelastic and normal necessity good. Also, the significant coefficient of the quadratic term of income confirms the satiation effect. Accordingly, prohibitive policies based on price are not successful and it is necessary to make a shift to non- price measures.
Zahra Nasrollahi; Mina Shahviri,
Volume 15, Issue 44 , October 2010, , Pages 199-230
Abstract
Management of Foreign exchange reserves is important for every country. This matter is also of particular interest for Iran as an Oil exporting developing country. This paper designs an optimal portfolio for that part of foreign exchange incomes which is used for investment. Using the data on foreign ...
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Management of Foreign exchange reserves is important for every country. This matter is also of particular interest for Iran as an Oil exporting developing country. This paper designs an optimal portfolio for that part of foreign exchange incomes which is used for investment. Using the data on foreign exchange daily returns, for the period 2000-2008, and applying univariate and multivariate Garch models, we estimate a model which maximizes expected returns subject to a Value-at-Risk constraint. The results are examined using Backtesting, and then the most acceptable model is suggested. The results that the multivariate GARCH model is the most efficient method for selecting the foreign exchange optimal portfolio in Iran.
Karim Eslamloueyan; Maryam Shafiee Sarvestani; Mahbobeh Jafari
Volume 14, Issue 43 , July 2010, , Pages 1-21
Abstract
Using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model and an impulse response analysis, this paper investigates the impact of trade openness on main macroeconomic variables including growth of output, inflation, and employment for the period 1961-2007 in Iran. More specifically, we intend to study how an ...
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Using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model and an impulse response analysis, this paper investigates the impact of trade openness on main macroeconomic variables including growth of output, inflation, and employment for the period 1961-2007 in Iran. More specifically, we intend to study how an increase in the degree of openness affects these main macroeconomic variables. The results of impulse response functions show that in the short run the trade openness increases the output growth but decreases the inflation rate. However, the short-run impact of openness on the growth of employment is negative. Moreover, the results show that a one unit change in the standard error of trade openness has no long-run effect on the output growth, the inflation and the growth of employment
Asghar Shahmoradi; Mohsen Mehrara; Navid Fayazi
Volume 14, Issue 42 , April 2010, , Pages 1-24
Abstract
This paper investigates the impacts of an energy price increase on price levels, income distribution, consumer’ welfare and government expenditure. In doing so, it uses a static Input-Output approach in the context of the input-output table for Islamic Republic of Iran for the year 2004. An exogenous ...
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This paper investigates the impacts of an energy price increase on price levels, income distribution, consumer’ welfare and government expenditure. In doing so, it uses a static Input-Output approach in the context of the input-output table for Islamic Republic of Iran for the year 2004. An exogenous increase in energy prices, due to reduction in energy subsidies, increases the production costs and consequently increases the general price level. Such price increases, result in a consumer’ welfare reduction and affect the government expenditures. It defines a set of indirect utility functions, which then used to measure the change in welfare of households. A set of constant coefficients used to measure the increase in households’ budget and change in government expenditures. Two distinct scenarios defined for energy prices increase, the first is a once-for-all 100% increase in those prices, and the second scenario assumes a once-for-all complete elimination of energy subsidies in Iran.
Mohammad Reza Hosseini; Ahmad Jafari Samimi
Volume 14, Issue 42 , April 2010, , Pages 101-122
Abstract
The index of economic well-being (IEWB) covering consumption, wealth, income distribution and economic security is a suitable composite index measuring welfare, growth and development at both partial as well as comprehensive levels .In this study the composite index has been proposed for the first time ...
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The index of economic well-being (IEWB) covering consumption, wealth, income distribution and economic security is a suitable composite index measuring welfare, growth and development at both partial as well as comprehensive levels .In this study the composite index has been proposed for the first time in Iran and the welfare trend has also been measured for the available data period 1368-1382. In order to aggregate variables and welfare dimensions we have normalized data using the first year of the first development plan (1368) as the base year. In addition, to estimate the trend of total economic welfare index we have used a uniform weight (0.25) table for each of the four dimensions. The results show that the economic security and consumption were respectively the most important dimensions of economic welfare in Iran .Also, comparing the absolute as well as the relative changes in per capita income and IEWB we found that using per capita income as an index will overestimate the level of economic welfare in Iran.
Ali Akbar Gholizadeh; Behnaz Kamyab
Volume 14, Issue 42 , April 2010, , Pages 123-147
Abstract
In this paper we analyze the three responses of monetary policy to bubble in housing prices. First rule corresponds to a monetary authority that does not respond to house price inflation. The second rule corresponds to a monetary authority that respond to overall house price inflation, and in third alternative ...
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In this paper we analyze the three responses of monetary policy to bubble in housing prices. First rule corresponds to a monetary authority that does not respond to house price inflation. The second rule corresponds to a monetary authority that respond to overall house price inflation, and in third alternative is a policy in which a monetary authority responds to house price bubble. We use an ARDL model with quarterly data for Iran. The results reveal several practical monetary policy lessons. First، a monetary authority should generally respond to house price bubble because minimizes the loss function. Second، this finding holds even if a monetary authority cannot distinguish between fundamental and bubble house price behavior. Third, monetary authority should tighten when house price bubbles are inflating and should ease when house price bubble collapse.
Karim Azarbaijani; Seyed Komail Tayebi; Nafiseh Honari
Volume 13, Issue 40 , October 2009, , Pages 59-75
Abstract
The relationship between international trade and emigration is being concerned in most developing countries with their relevant migration and trade policies. Such policies should rely on logical resolutions in order to reduce unemployment pressure on the labor market. Hence، this study examines the ...
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The relationship between international trade and emigration is being concerned in most developing countries with their relevant migration and trade policies. Such policies should rely on logical resolutions in order to reduce unemployment pressure on the labor market. Hence، this study examines the relationship between Iran’s trade volume and labor force emigration to the five major members of the OECD (the US، Canada، the UK، the Netherlands and Sweden) over the period 1992-2004 (1371-1383).Following Mitchell and Pain (2003) and Mayda (2005)، a specified gravity model is estimated by panel data to show the impacts of determinants on the Iran’s emigration. The empirical results obtained indicate that there is a significant and complementary relationship between trade volume and the labor force emigration to the selected countries of OECD in Iran. Additionally، the results show that convergence in the labor force productivity، as a gap between the number of skilled labors falls in Iran and the OECD members، can lead to a decrease in emigration from Iran to abroad.
Esmaiel Abounoori; Najmeh Gholami
Volume 13, Issue 39 , July 2009, , Pages 71-53
Abstract
In this study, nominal & real average compensated wage has been computed for woman & man in each industry during 1999-2005, then the effect of gender on the average compensated wage are estimated using regression analysis of variance. The results indicate that the highest shock (highest ...
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In this study, nominal & real average compensated wage has been computed for woman & man in each industry during 1999-2005, then the effect of gender on the average compensated wage are estimated using regression analysis of variance. The results indicate that the highest shock (highest coefficient of variation) in the per capita compensated wage for men as well as women, has happened in "Manufacture of office, accounting and computing machinery", while the lowest fluctuation has happened in "Manufacture of tobacco products", "Tanning and dressing of leather; manufacture of luggage, handbags, saddler, harness and footwear" for man & woman employees, respectively. The interesting point in this research is that, assuming other things equal, the real average compensated wage for women employees has been less than that of men by about 4220000 Rials per annul. Of course this gap, may be due to more overtime work, level of experience, level of skills and educations of the men comparing that of the woman’s, which have not been considered in this study.
Ahmad Sadraei Javaheri
Volume 13, Issue 38 , April 2009, , Pages 243-256
Abstract
The paper examines industrial concentration in Iranian food products and beverages industries using firm level data aggregated to the 4-digit ISIC industry level between 2002 and 2004. Based on different concentration indices the average level of concentration has increased slightly for the period of ...
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The paper examines industrial concentration in Iranian food products and beverages industries using firm level data aggregated to the 4-digit ISIC industry level between 2002 and 2004. Based on different concentration indices the average level of concentration has increased slightly for the period of study. The empirical results show that increase in the level of concentration is more likely in industries that are more profitable. The results also show that initial capital requirement has positive and significant effect on the likelihood of changes in the level of concentration in the selected industries. Factors such as size, advertising intensity and R&D intensity do not have a significant effect on the probability of changes in concentration.
Alimorad Sharifi; Mehdi Sadeghi; Mahdi Nafar; zahra dehghan shabani
Volume 11, Issue 35 , July 2008, , Pages 79-110
Abstract
In this paper, we study the factors affecting changes in energy intensity in Iran. We use Fisher Ideal index in order to decompose the energy intensity into the structural changes and efficiency improvements in the Iranian manufacturing industries during 1993-2004. The results show that the structural ...
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In this paper, we study the factors affecting changes in energy intensity in Iran. We use Fisher Ideal index in order to decompose the energy intensity into the structural changes and efficiency improvements in the Iranian manufacturing industries during 1993-2004. The results show that the structural changes have had a little effect in decreasing the energy intensity in the manufacturing industries in Iran.
Mehdi Moradpour; Mohsen Ebrahimi; Vahid Abbasion
Volume 11, Issue 35 , July 2008, , Pages 159-176
Abstract
This paper studies the effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on private investment in Iran. We estimate the effect using a model for private investment in Iran and the time series data for the period 1977-2004. We use the GARCH method to construct an estimate of the real exchange rate uncertainty, ...
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This paper studies the effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on private investment in Iran. We estimate the effect using a model for private investment in Iran and the time series data for the period 1977-2004. We use the GARCH method to construct an estimate of the real exchange rate uncertainty, and estimate the model by OLS method. The results show that the effect of uncertainty of real exchange rate on investment by private sector is significantly negative.
Saeed Rasekhi
Volume 10, Issue 34 , April 2008, , Pages 31-55
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to estimate and study industry specific determinants of Iran’s intra industry trade (IIT) types. To this end, we use the data on foreign trade and industry specific for 16305 Iranian manufacturing firms in 2002 at the 4-digit aggregation level of ISIC classification. ...
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The purpose of this paper is to estimate and study industry specific determinants of Iran’s intra industry trade (IIT) types. To this end, we use the data on foreign trade and industry specific for 16305 Iranian manufacturing firms in 2002 at the 4-digit aggregation level of ISIC classification. Results imply that dominant market structure in intra industry trade types of Iranian manufacturing industry is an imperfect competition. Specifically, economies of scale, low concentration and product differentiation are important determinants of Iran’s manufacturing industry IIT types. Furthermore, the research and development expenditures and foreign direct investment have significant and positive effects on Iran’s IIT. Industry specific characteristics such as economies of scale and product differentiation, R&D and FDI are important factors in promoting IIT in Iran.
Morteza Naderi; Ahmad Sharbatoghlie
Volume 9, Issue 32 , October 2007, , Pages 1-29
Abstract
Freedom of choice and competition are viewed as vital factors for economic growth. In this paper, we use a growth model to examine the impact of economic freedom on the economic growth across the world countries for the period 1999-2004. Our study differs from the previous studies in terms of the ...
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Freedom of choice and competition are viewed as vital factors for economic growth. In this paper, we use a growth model to examine the impact of economic freedom on the economic growth across the world countries for the period 1999-2004. Our study differs from the previous studies in terms of the modeling, the scope of the study, and the selected sample. The results, however, are consistent with those of the previous studies. Given the fact that Iran’s position in the world is low in terms of economic freedom, that economic freedom has a significant role in economic growth, it is necessary for investors and firms to have suitable conditions for transparent and accurate decision-making. Creation of the favorable economic conditions is the responsibility of the government and thus, it is necessary to have defined policies and planning for the establishment of conditions for economic freedom in the society. Creation of social condition for economic freedom of economic agents is a convenient orientation that is favorable with economic growth policies and must be internalized in the Iran's economic policies.
Mohamad Vaez; Khadijeh Nasrollahi; Amir jabbari
Volume 9, Issue 31 , July 2007, , Pages 77-102
Abstract
The central banks holding of the international reserves serves as a means for financing the balance-of-payments deficit, but bears opportunity costs. Therefore, the optimal level of the international reserves is one of the monetary authorities’ major concerns. The special economic conditions of ...
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The central banks holding of the international reserves serves as a means for financing the balance-of-payments deficit, but bears opportunity costs. Therefore, the optimal level of the international reserves is one of the monetary authorities’ major concerns. The special economic conditions of the country, such as the severe dependency of the economy on the oil exporting revenues, lacking of the necessary flexibility in the foreign exchange market, commercial limitations and controlling the capital flows, limited access to the international financial markets, poor management of the foreign debts, and various national and international shocks to the economy in recent years have made the determining of the optimal level of the international reserves very important to the Iranian economy. In this paper, we use the Frankel-Jovanovic model which is based on the Bamol’s and Tobin’s buffer stock model and apply dynamic optimization and GARCH model to determine the optimal level of the international reserves of Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran for the period 1961-2004. Our findings show that the real reserves level, except for the periods of high oil revenues, have been lower than the optimal level.
Alireza Kazerooni; Ali Reza Mohammadi
Volume 9, Issue 31 , July 2007, , Pages 127-150
Abstract
The main objective of this paper is to estimate the relationship between the real wage rates and labor productivity in the industrial sector of Iran over the period 1979-2002. The empirical results obtained form the ARDL estimation model confirm a long run (co-integrated) relationship between the ...
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The main objective of this paper is to estimate the relationship between the real wage rates and labor productivity in the industrial sector of Iran over the period 1979-2002. The empirical results obtained form the ARDL estimation model confirm a long run (co-integrated) relationship between the real wage rate and the productivity along side with other variables in the model where the labor productivity has a positive impact on real wage rate, but is not significant statistically. Also, the Granger test demonstrates that there is no causality link between these two variables. In fact, other factors, including the government domination on the major industrial units (by setting an administrated wage rates), labor laws, and lack of effective labor unions have led to an inflexible wage rate system.
Esmaiel Abounoori; Reza Abbasi Ghadi
Volume 9, Issue 30 , April 2007, , Pages 23-52
Abstract
Economic growth in addition to the direct income effect on poverty has an indirect distribution effect. The main purpose of this research is to estimate the net economic growth effect on poverty in Iran during the periods 1982-1988, the first socio-economic development plan (1989-1993), the second plan ...
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Economic growth in addition to the direct income effect on poverty has an indirect distribution effect. The main purpose of this research is to estimate the net economic growth effect on poverty in Iran during the periods 1982-1988, the first socio-economic development plan (1989-1993), the second plan (1995-1999), and a part of the third plan (2000-2001). The results indicate that poverty increased during 1982-1988. Decomposing poverty shows that the reduction in inequality alleviated the level of poverty due to the economic recession. This implies that the reduction in the share of the lower income groups were relatively smaller than that of the higher income groups. Although the poverty increased in this period,, the poor has suffered less relative to the rich. In general, throughout the economic plans era, growth has not been pro-poor, except in the third development plan; the increase in the share of higher income groups has always been relatively more than that of the lower income groups.
Mahmood Khataei; Sepideh Khatibi; Nierehsadat Gharshi
Volume 9, Issue 30 , April 2007, , Pages 77-92
Abstract
In this paper, we study the restricting factors leading to the disequilibrium condition in the Iranian market for bank’s credit using the switching regression model for the period 1353-1383 (1974-2004).
The results of our study show that the real banking interest rate, real ...
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In this paper, we study the restricting factors leading to the disequilibrium condition in the Iranian market for bank’s credit using the switching regression model for the period 1353-1383 (1974-2004).
The results of our study show that the real banking interest rate, real money supply, real banks reserves in central bank, and monetary base have significant relationship with credit supply. Also, the estimation of credit demand shows a positive relationship between the lag of the real deposits and credit demand.
The interesting point is the insignificant relationship between the credit demand and the banking interest rate in the study period, but a high significant relationship between supply and the banking interest rate . This implies that the restricting factor in the credit market is the supply side which has always been less than the demand. An estimation of the market clearing banking interest rates in comparison with the real observed interest rates in recent years also confirms the result .
