Authors

1 Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, shahid Beheshti University

2 M.A. in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

Financial crises have been frequently occurred in the global economy, and due to the negative impacts of financial crises on the real sectors performances, the economists tried to predict them. This study tries to investigate the role of the trade flows on occurrence of these phenomena and also the effects of contagion on trade flows. Hence, a sample of the emerging markets countries is selected during 1990-2013, and the simultaneous equations method has been used with discrete dependent variable (contagion of financial crises) in panel data. The results show that the trade flows lead to the acceleration of the contagion of the financial crises and on the other hand, the trade flows has been decreased by financial crises in the selected emerging markets countries. Finally, similar to the probability for contagion of the financial crises, more financial and regional linkages can increase the trade flows among selected countries. 

Keywords

اسماعیلی، علی (1394)، «تعامل جریان‌های تجاری و نشر بحران‌های مالی در کشورهای نوظهور»، پایان‌نامه کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی.
دینی ترکمانی، علی، محمدرضا زاغیان، معصومه صالحی امین، مسعود هاشمیان و  فردین یزدانی (1378)، «آسیب‌شناسی راهبردهای توسعه اقتصادی جنوب شرقی آسیا: با تأکید بر بحران پولی و مالی 1997»، پژوهشگاه علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، تهران.
طاهری، صالح (1382)، «اثرات ایجاد هم‌گرایی اقتصادی بین ایران و اتحادیه‌های اقتصادی»، پایان‌نامه کارشناسی ارشد علوم اقتصادی، دانشگاه اصفهان.
قنبری، محمود (1391)، «درس‌هایی از بحران: استراتژی سیاست‌های پولی»، فصلنامه تازه‌های اقتصاد، شماره 136، صص 98-87.
نادری، مرتضی (1392)، «ارایه نظام هشدار پیش از موعد برای بحران‌های مالی در اقتصاد ایران»، فصلنامه پژوهش‌های اقتصادی ایران، دوره 5، شماره 17، صص 174-147.
یزدانی، مهدی (1392)، «تحلیل توقف‌های ناگهانی جریان سرمایه و بحران‌های مالی: تجربه کشورهای دارای بازار نوظهور»، رساله دکترای اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان.
یزدانی، مهدی، آزاد،خانزادی و نفیسه یزدانی (1391)، «اثرگذاری جهانی شدن بر تسریع سرایت بحران‌های مالی و ارایه راهکارهای مناسب»، مرکز جهانی شدن، تهران.
Aitken, N.D., (1973), “The Effect of the EEC and EFTA on European Trade: A Temporal Cross-Section Analysis,” American Economic Review, 63(5), 881-92.
Aizenman, J., (2004), "Financial Opening: Evidence and Policy Options," In Baldwin, R. and Winters, A., editors, Challenges to Globalization: Analyzing the Economics, 473–494, University Of Chicago Press.
Akin, C., (2006), “Multiple Determinants of Business Cycle Synchronization,” George Washington University, Department of Economics.
Asongu, S.A., (2011), “Globalization, Financial Crisis and Contagion: Time-Dynamic Evidence from Financial Market of Developing Countries,” Munich Personal RePEc Archive (MPRA paper), No 30668.
Behrens, K., Gregory, C. and Giordano, M., (2013), “Trade Crisis? What Trade crisis?” Review of Economics and Statistics, 95(2), 702-709.
Castiglionesi, F., (2007), “Financial Contagion and the Role of the Central Bank,” Journal of BANKING & FINANCE, 31, 81-101.
Claessens, S. and Forbes, K., (2001), International Financial Contagion, Norwell: MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Collins. D. and Biekpe, N., (2003), “Contagion: a Fear for African Equity Markets?” Journal of Economics and Business, 55, 285-297.
Devereux, M.B. and Yu, C., (2014), "International Financial Integration and Crisis Contagion," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, Working Paper 20526.
Eichengreen, B. and Irwin, A.D., (1995), “Trade Blocs, Currency Blocs and the Reorientation of World Trade in the 1930s”, Journal of International Economics, 38, l-24.
Eichengreen, B., Rose, A. and Wyplosz, C., (1997), “Contagious Currency Crises,” NBER Working Paper No. 5681.
Forbes, K. and Rigobon, R. (2002), “No Contagion, only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements”, Journal of Finance, 57(5), 2223–2261.
Forbes, K.J., (2000), “The Asian flu and Russian Virus: Firm-Level Evidence on How Crises Are Transmitted Internationally” NBER Working Paper 7807.
Frankel, J.A., (1997), Regional trading blocks in the world trading system, Washington, DC: Institute of International Economics.
Heckman, J.J., (1978), “Dummy Endogenous Variables in a Simultaneous Equation System,” Econometrica, 46(4), 931-959.
Kaminsky, G.L., Reinhart, C.M. and Vegh, C.A., (2003), “The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion,” Journal of economic Perspectives, 17(4), 51-74.
Kanas, A. (1998), “Linkages between the US and European Equity Markets: further Evidence from Co-integration Test”, Applied Financial Economics, 8(6), 607–614.
Karunaratne, N., (2002), “Globalization, Crisis Contagion and the Reform of International Financial Architecture,” IMF Discussion Paper No. 300, Washington, USA.
King, M. and Wadhwani, S. (1990), “Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets”, Review of Financial Studies, 3(1), 5–33.
King, M., Sentana, E. and Wadhwani, S., (1994), “Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets”, Econometrica, 62(4), 901–933.
Krugman, P. (1999), “Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises”, http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/ FLOOD.pdf
Lee, H., Wu, H. and Wang. Y., (2007), “Contagion Effect in Financial Markets after the South East Asia Tsunami,” Research in International Business and Finance, 21, 281-296.
Martin, P. and Rey, H., (2006), “Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?”, American Economic Review, 96(5), 1631-1651.0
Martínez-Zarzoso, I. and Nowak-Lehmann, F., (2003), “Augmented Gravity Model: An Empirical Application to Mercosur-European Union Trade Flows”, Journal of Applied Economics, VI, 291-316.
Obstfeld, M., (1986), “Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises,” American Economic Review, 76(1), 72-81.
Poyhonen, P., (1963), “A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade between Countries”, The American Economic Review, 2, 93-99.
Schmukler, S.L., (2004), “Financial Globalization: Gain and Pain for Developing Countries” Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, 39-66.
Shin, K. and Wang, Y., (2004), “Trade Integration and Business Cycle Co-movement: the Case of Korea with Other Asian Countries”, Japan and the World Economy, 16, 213-230.
Tayebi, S.K., and Ramezani, F., (2011), Financial Crisis and Steel Trade Integration in Asia and Pacific, A Static and Dynamic Analysis,” International Journal of Business and Development Studies, 3(1), 5-28.
Tinbergen, J., (1962), Shaping the World Economy, New York: The Twentieth Century Fund.
Yazdani, M. and Tayebi, S.K., (2012), “Determinants of Bonanza Episode and Its Effects on Financial Crises in Emerging Market Countries”, Journal of International Business and Development Studies, 4(1), 63-86.
Yeats, A., (1998), “Does Mercosur’s Trade Performance Raise Concerns about the Effects of Regional Trade Arrangements?” The Word Bank Economic Review, 12(1), 1-28.
http://www.worldbank.org