Distributed Lag Effect of Money Changes on the Rate of Inflation in Iran
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article
2008
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The distributed lag effect of a unit change in one of the explanatory variables on the dependent variable is one of the major shortcomings of the standard linear egression model. The long run or error correction equation, with specifies a casual relationship between the inflation and its determinants, states that a unit change in one of the explanatory variables can result in a change in the rate of inflation only during the period specified by the model. But in practice, changes in, for example, the country's money supply may affect inflation rate over a long period
This paper aims to estimate the adjustment path of the rate of inflation following exogenous monetary shocks. To do so, we use an ARDL model and time series data for the period 1961-2005 in the Iranian economy. The results indicate that one percent, once-and-for-all, increase in money supply positively affects the rate of inflation during three years. One percent increase in money supply at time t results in 0.42 percent in current period, 0.19 percent at time t+1 and 0.27 percent at time t+2 increase in the rate of inflation.
Iranian Journal of Economic research
Allameh Tabataba’i University
1726-0728
12
v.
36
no.
2008
1
16
http://ijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3563_1aea791e8fe779f678fa7c0cc27e024d.pdf
An Analysis of DID in Investigating the Impact of
Currency Unions on North-South Income
Convergence
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article
2008
per
The expansion of international trade has influenced deeply many economies to converge (Slaughter 1998). Now a question can be raised whether the establishment of an economic union (a currency union, for instance) can lead to income convergence or it may cause income divergence between members of that union.
This paper examines whether the membership of countries in a block for trade expansion enables their economies to move toward income convergence, while the result should be different between countries in north, or north and south. To this end, the objective, the paper uses a difference-indifferences (DID) analysis to measure the rate of income convergence (divergence) before and after establishing a currency union. The results obtained approve that the implementing of currency union affects significantly and directly income convergence in the world, while this effect in much more pronounced in North-South countries than of North-South ones.
Iranian Journal of Economic research
Allameh Tabataba’i University
1726-0728
12
v.
36
no.
2008
17
36
http://ijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3564_152e3312dfc5e2e5dab21c4fcad8fecb.pdf
Forecasting Gasoline Price Using GMDH Neural Network Based on GA
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article
2008
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In this paper, we use GMDH neural network based on Genetic Algorithm to model and forecast the price of gasoline using two approaches; Deductive Method and Technical Analysis. The results of deductive method indicate that the accuracy of prediction could reach up to 96% and in technical analysis could reach up to 99%. Furthermore the comparison reveals that the GMDH neural networks model consistently outperforms the regression model used in this study.
Iranian Journal of Economic research
Allameh Tabataba’i University
1726-0728
12
v.
36
no.
2008
58
37
http://ijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3565_67e59b20afbed3a30336edeea03ec91e.pdf
Modeling and Forecasting Iranian Inflation with Time Varying BVAR Models
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article
2008
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This paper investigates the forecasting performance of different time-varying BVAR models for Iranian inflation. Forecast accuracy of a BVAR model with Litterman’s prior compared with a time-varying BVAR model (a version introduced by Doan et al., 1984); and a modified time-varying BVAR model, where the autoregressive coefficients are held constant and only the deterministic components are allowed to vary over time. Application using quarterly data of the Iranian economy from 1981:Q2 to 2006:Q1 shows that the performance of different specifications of time-varying BVAR models for forecasting inflation depends on the number of lags, hyper parameter that controls time variation, and forecast horizons. Our results, however, show that the modified time-varying BVAR model performs much better than other models regardless of the factors above.
Iranian Journal of Economic research
Allameh Tabataba’i University
1726-0728
12
v.
36
no.
2008
59
84
http://ijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3566_f97ce9d290a2622b56760260296c3f7c.pdf
Structural Changes and Economic Growth in the New Industrialized Countries
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article
2008
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Structural change can contribute to economic growth through an improvement in utilization of resources along with the traditional factors such as physical capital human capital, and technology. In this paper, we investigate the impact of structural change on economic growth in the new industrialized countries (NIC). Among many variables traditionally used as proxies for structural changes, we identify 20 variables to represent the structural changes in 11 NICs for the period 1970-2004. We then use principal components and dynamic factor analysis to obtain an index for structural changes in these countries. Our estimation results obtained from the growth equation indicate that structural change has had a positive and significant effect on economic growth in NICs.
Iranian Journal of Economic research
Allameh Tabataba’i University
1726-0728
12
v.
36
no.
2008
85
113
http://ijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3567_7a115140916bc44961d36c5d7bc28b9b.pdf
An Estimation of Gini Coefficient in Iran
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article
2008
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The Gini coefficient is a popular and a widely used index for measuring inequality. But it does not express explicitly a parameter or a value judgment to reflect the opinion of authorities or researches. A generalization of this index known as extended Gini coefficient is introduced to explain different versions of inequality. For decomposing of inequality there are two approaches. First, using a decomposition of Gini coefficient to income components dissent the relative importance of the major income components. Following such decomposition, the marginal impact on inequality due to a change in income or consumption for specific source estimates the Gini income elasticity. The second approach is decomposition of Gini coefficient by subgroups of population. This approach is applicable when the subgroups do not overlap. This article in tends to analyze the structure of distribution of income in Iran by using these approaches.
Iranian Journal of Economic research
Allameh Tabataba’i University
1726-0728
12
v.
36
no.
2008
115
134
http://ijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3568_b67d90fa8c9e5e94d791bffbfb310da8.pdf
The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on the Stock Market: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange Market
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article
2008
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This paper examines the influence of macroeconomicvariables on stock market equity valuesin Tehran Stock Exchange Market. We use the Tehran Stock Exchange Market all share price index to represent the stock market and (a) moneysupply, (b) interest rate, (c) consumer price index (as a measure of inflation), (d) exchangerate and (e) trade balance as macroeconomic variables. We use the data quarterly data for the above variables for the 20 quarterly periods from Farvardin 1377 to Esfand 1384 employinga battery of tests, which include unit roots,cointegration, vector error correction models (VECM), impulse response functions (IRFs) and variancedecompositions (VDCs). These tests examineboth long-run and short-run relationships between the stockmarket index and the economic variables.The VECM analyses provides some support for the argument that the lagged values of macroeconomic variableshave a significant influence on the stock market. Both VDC and IRF analyses reveal thatshocks to economic variables explained onlya minority of the forecast variance error of the market index and the effects do not persist for verylong.
Iranian Journal of Economic research
Allameh Tabataba’i University
1726-0728
12
v.
36
no.
2008
135
152
http://ijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3569_ca82d464476f9d382f90a0da531f64b6.pdf
Measuring the Impact of Price Changes of Goods and Services on Poverty in Iran
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article
2008
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Subsidies and indirect taxes are important instruments in order to implement government policy aimed at poverty reduction. This paper develops a methodology to assess subsidies and indirect taxes from poverty reduction aspect. This method helps us to know whether subsidies and indirect taxes are pro poor or not. A fiscal policy can be said as pro poor if it benefits the poor proportionally more than the non poor. For this purpose, in the viewpoint of poverty the concept of elasticity of Foster, Greer, and Torbeque poverty index with respect to prices is used and then the pro-poor index for prices is derived we use the index to assess the indirect taxes and subsidies. The results of this research during the years 1379-83 in urban and rural areas in Iran indicate increasing in price of food items hurt the poor more than the rich and subsidizing these items (excluding beverages and tobacco) have been pro-poor. how ever, an increasing in price for items like health and care, transportation, communication and education hurt the rich more than the poor, and the rich benefit more than the poor from these subsidies.Therefore,a review on studies tax program in order to reduce inequality and improve welfare seems to be necessary.
Iranian Journal of Economic research
Allameh Tabataba’i University
1726-0728
12
v.
36
no.
2008
153
185
http://ijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3570_c7d8a14d743213d4abed7300908730ac.pdf
An Estimation of the Recreational Value of
the Saee Park in Tehran Using the Contingent
Valuation Method (CV)
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article
2008
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This paper has assesses of the recreational value of the Saee Park by estimating a visitor’s willingness to pay (WTP) for recreational benefits obtained, the contingent valuation (CV) and dichotomous choice (DC) using methods. The light model estimation results indicate that 60% of visitors are willing to pay for recreational values at the SaeePark. The mean value for willingness to pay for the recreational value of the park is 1840 Rls. per visit. The mean of WTP for recreational value of this park is 220 million Rls household/month and the total recreational annual value was estimated at 2.7 billions Rls for the Park. Results also reveal that offer value and visitor’s income variables are the most important factors that affect visitor’s WTP for use of the SaeePark . The visitor’s belief of park quality and the cost of coming to park are the next important factors that affect visitor’s wtp. The other important factors are the weekly time engaged in art work, the weekly study time, and the type of residential house.
Iranian Journal of Economic research
Allameh Tabataba’i University
1726-0728
12
v.
36
no.
2008
187
202
http://ijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3572_1d434e7264201809ca70338f293e5e1c.pdf