Political economy
Hossein Tavakolian; reza talebloo; Shaghayegh Abasali
Abstract
Despite, the measures for improvement of the State budget system in the current economic situation in Iran, no improvement has been taken. As, the relationship between beneficiaries of the budget included the government, parliament, regulatory bodies, and people as the final beneficiary of budget, has ...
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Despite, the measures for improvement of the State budget system in the current economic situation in Iran, no improvement has been taken. As, the relationship between beneficiaries of the budget included the government, parliament, regulatory bodies, and people as the final beneficiary of budget, has not regulated properly, therefore, transparency and accountability of the various officials of the government has been decreased. In this paper, we study budgetary and off-budgetary operation of the government and its impact on inflation with emphasis on fiscal dominance via banking system, using Generalized Methods of the Moments (GMM) trough 1372-1397. The results indicate that increasing the fiscal dominance via the debt channel of banking system has positive effect on inflation thus, fiscal dominance via banking system has been proved. Also, the results confirm the negative relationship between political stability and control of corruption on inflation. This variable has been in a low level during the sample period which requires the attention of government in all areas and political factions of country.
Mehdi Hajamini
Abstract
During the period 1969-2017, Iranian economy’s inflation rate was on average 19 percent which did not have a downward trend; hence the name chronic moderate inflation. In the present paper, by reviewing 110 theoretical and empirical studies and 83 studies on the Iran’s economy, a meta-analysis ...
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During the period 1969-2017, Iranian economy’s inflation rate was on average 19 percent which did not have a downward trend; hence the name chronic moderate inflation. In the present paper, by reviewing 110 theoretical and empirical studies and 83 studies on the Iran’s economy, a meta-analysis on the role of budget structure for explaining the persistence of the chronic moderate inflation rate of Iran is presented. This analysis shows that the budget structure (deficit, operating deficit, capital surplus, and financing) has been the driving force behind the continual increase in the liquidity as well as the permanent repression of interest rates in the post-revolutionary period. Therefore, change in financial and monetary strategies (and not policies necessarily) is a precondition to control the liquidity and inflation. Accordingly, some budgetary rules are needed to improve the process of decision-making and parliament-government-central bank interactions. In addition, a clear consensus has been reached about the inflationary effects of government budgets in the Iranian economy, so it is recommended that future researches focus on how the new rules can affect interaction between the fiscal and monetary autorities using game theory.
