Rahim Goodarzi; Mahmood Sabuhi; Naser Shahnoushi; Hossein Mehrabi; Mashallah Salarpour
Volume 17, Issue 53 , February 2013, , Pages 135-157
Abstract
Subsidies are known to distort prices, the optimal allocation of resources and economic growth and induce budget deficit and increase social costs, resulting in irreparable adverse effects on the economy. On the other hand implemetation of subsidy reform programs can have a widespread impact on economic ...
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Subsidies are known to distort prices, the optimal allocation of resources and economic growth and induce budget deficit and increase social costs, resulting in irreparable adverse effects on the economy. On the other hand implemetation of subsidy reform programs can have a widespread impact on economic aggregates A clearly specified trend in trajectory of macroeconomic variables is expected to better enable policy makers in planning for appropriate fiscal and monetary policy pakeges. The task of determining the best policy package, consistent with macroeconomic goals and constraints presents a genuine Stochastic Optimal Control problem. Solution for such a problem requires a practical statistical algorithm. The OPTCON2 method employed in this study seems to be a suitable method. First, the econometric relationships among the macroeconomic variables of the model is estimated using 2SLS statistical method. Subsquently an OPTCON2 prorgram is specified using C # Language in a visual studio. Simulation program for subsidies during the 5th development plan indicates a decline in economic growth for the first year, followed by a small rise in growth rate during the subsequent years. The findings also indicates an initial rise in inflation followed with a decline in later periods. It was also indicated that the unemployment rate is likely to rise in the beginning, leveling down to a given rate later.
Rahim Goodarzi; Alireza Karbasi; Masode Homaionyfar
Volume 14, Issue 43 , July 2010, , Pages 211-226
Abstract
A macroeconometric simulation study was undertaken to evaluate the impact of commodity price stabilisation (CPS) schemes for the export of Agricultural crop in Iran. The findings suggest that there is a negligible level of favourable macroeconomic impacts of CPS. Contrary to the expectation, CPS ...
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A macroeconometric simulation study was undertaken to evaluate the impact of commodity price stabilisation (CPS) schemes for the export of Agricultural crop in Iran. The findings suggest that there is a negligible level of favourable macroeconomic impacts of CPS. Contrary to the expectation, CPS adversely affects the stability of monetary and external sectors (BOP). That is, the CPS policy would faile to stabilise the macroeconomy, therefore, it is not appropriate from the macroeconomic point of view. Technical progrees, futures market, and rural credit are the possible alternative policy options to manage the price risk.
Rahim Goodarzi; Masode Homaionyfar
Volume 10, Issue 34 , April 2008, , Pages 125-144
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is twofold. The first aim is to illustrate the relationship between game theory and linear programming. The other aim is to apply game theory to field crops. We have used the main field crops (wheat, barley, paddy, maize, chickpea, lentil ,cotton and potato) in Province of Fars. ...
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The purpose of this paper is twofold. The first aim is to illustrate the relationship between game theory and linear programming. The other aim is to apply game theory to field crops. We have used the main field crops (wheat, barley, paddy, maize, chickpea, lentil ,cotton and potato) in Province of Fars. The data included time series of gross product values of the investigated crops for the period 1362-1382. The Wald decision-making criterion was applied to the game theory model to determine the highest income under the worst conditions. The results of the model indicate that potato and paddy were the most risky crops for the the period of study. As potato and paddy provide the highest expected income under the worst conditions these crops enter the optimum plan. Furthermore, these two crops have the highest variation coefficients compared to the other crops. It is concluded that the game theory model can be used to select alternative management strategies.