Hassan Kalbasi; Gholam Ali Raissi Ardali; Mehdi Raissi
Volume 6, Issue 20 , October 2004, , Pages 55-79
Abstract
This paper tends to calculate the extent of Iran's intra industry trade, using Grubel & Lloyd index. The index is measured at two statistical classifications. First, it has been measured at the 5-digit level of Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) between 1994-1998 and then at the 6-digit ...
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This paper tends to calculate the extent of Iran's intra industry trade, using Grubel & Lloyd index. The index is measured at two statistical classifications. First, it has been measured at the 5-digit level of Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) between 1994-1998 and then at the 6-digit level of harmonized tariff schedule in the period 1997-2001. The results show that share of intra industry trade in total trade is very low in Iran and is not comparable with the developed countries. Iran’s Intra industry trade with developed countries tends to lie in industrial products. These products are basically from manufactured goods (6), machines and transport equipments (7) & other manufactured articles (9) categories. On the other hand, simultaneous exports and imports of natural resource-intensive goods and labor-intensive products mostly occur between Iran and developing countries.
Masoud Nili
Volume 5, Issue 17 , February 2004, , Pages 55-47
Esfandiyar Jahangard; Saeed Moshiri
Volume 6, Issue 19 , July 2004, , Pages 55-78
Abstract
The empirical studies have indicated that the contribution of information and communication technology to growth in developed and some developing countries are significant, particularly in the second half of the 1990s.There is still room for more investigation, specially in developing countries, where ...
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The empirical studies have indicated that the contribution of information and communication technology to growth in developed and some developing countries are significant, particularly in the second half of the 1990s.There is still room for more investigation, specially in developing countries, where the socio-economic infrastructure may not fully support the positive link between ICT & economic growth. This paper employs an endogenous growth model to estimate the contribution of ICT in the Iranian economic growth using the state space method. This study reveals a positive and significant effect of communication investment on the economic growth in the late 1990s. Our results suggest that an increase in the ICT expenditure across various economic activities as well as improved complementary factors will eventually lead to higher economic growth.
Seyed Mahdi Barakchian; Hamed Atrianfar
Abstract
Inflation rate is one of the key macroeconomic variables that policymaking institutions and central banks in particular, need to forecast accurately for several periods ahead in order to make proper policies. Direct and iterated methods are two common techniques which are suggested in the literature ...
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Inflation rate is one of the key macroeconomic variables that policymaking institutions and central banks in particular, need to forecast accurately for several periods ahead in order to make proper policies. Direct and iterated methods are two common techniques which are suggested in the literature for multi-period forecasting. In this paper, using a wide range of quarterly economic variables we compare the performance of these two techniques in real time forecasting of inflation in Iran. The results show that as the forecast horizon increases, iterated method outperforms direct method. For the information criteria which select shorter lags (e.g. Schwarz criterion), direct method and iterated method performs better in short forecast horizons (1 and 2 periods ahead) and long forecast horizons (3 and 4 periods ahead), respectively, while for the information criteria which select longer lags (e.g. Akaike criterion), iterated method generally performs better, irrespective of the forecast horizon.
Hassan Heidari; Parisa Jouhari Salmasi
Abstract
Low and stable inflation with sustainable growth is the first objective of any monetary authority. To achieve this prime goal, reliable forecast of macroeconomic variables play an important role. This paper investigates the forecasting performance of BVAR models with different priors for Iranian economy. ...
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Low and stable inflation with sustainable growth is the first objective of any monetary authority. To achieve this prime goal, reliable forecast of macroeconomic variables play an important role. This paper investigates the forecasting performance of BVAR models with different priors for Iranian economy. For this purpose we use BVAR approach with Gibbs sampling for quarterly data of the Iranian economy from 1989:Q1 to 2007:Q4. The main advantage of this paper is using Gibbs Sampling to estimate BVAR models and use of Quasi BVAR models with Normal Wishart and Minnesota priors in order to compare forecast accuracy of the macroeconomic variables. Comparison of the BVAR with Gibbs Sampler and Quasi BVAR models in this experience shows that the value of MSFE in predicting macroeconomic variables for the four ahead period forecasts in BVAR model with Gibbs algorithms is less than Quasi BVAR models. Generally BVAR model with Gibbs sampling algorithms performs better than Quasi BVAR models in forecasting.
Mohamad Hoseyn Poor Kazemi; Ilnaz Ebrahimi
Volume 10, Issue 34 , April 2008, , Pages 57-71
Abstract
The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) is an empirical inverted U-shaped relationship between pollution and income. In the early stages of economic growth, pollution increases but beyond some level of income per capita the trend reverses. In this paper, we examine the validity of EKC for a sample of 13 ...
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The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) is an empirical inverted U-shaped relationship between pollution and income. In the early stages of economic growth, pollution increases but beyond some level of income per capita the trend reverses. In this paper, we examine the validity of EKC for a sample of 13 Middle East countries. Sample period include 1998-2003. A large number of EKC studies focus only on developed countries or a sample of developed and developing countries but for the first time our sample consist solely of emissions from Middle Eastern countries. We have used CO2 as the main pollutant factor in this study. Our log-log specification results suggest a monotonic and increasing relationship between income and pollution, but regression coefficients are not statistically significant. However, in our linear model all the coefficients are statistically significant and the EKC hypothesis can not be rejected.
Hushang Shajari
Volume 1, Issue 1 , April 1995, , Pages 57-65
Morteza Aalabaf Sabaghi
Volume 2, 4&5(Spring and Summer) , April 2000, , Pages 57-72
Abstract
Bargaining in labour markets is a prevalent process for wages negotiations and employment in which there is a particular aspect clearly apparent in agency negotiations. There is a one-to-one aspect of bargaining between firms and workers that develops into contract negotiation in labour markets. This ...
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Bargaining in labour markets is a prevalent process for wages negotiations and employment in which there is a particular aspect clearly apparent in agency negotiations. There is a one-to-one aspect of bargaining between firms and workers that develops into contract negotiation in labour markets. This process and the resulting wage contract, is developed further in this paper in a non-cooperative bargaining model.
Hamid Toufighi; Azadeh Mehrabian
Volume 4, Issue 13 , February 2003, , Pages 57-74
Abstract
In the analysis of macroeconomic problems and eonomic policies, the survey of import demand function is very important and it has a key role in efficiency and effectiveness of trade policies.
Imports and factors affecting it, are playing an important role in the trade balance of each ...
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In the analysis of macroeconomic problems and eonomic policies, the survey of import demand function is very important and it has a key role in efficiency and effectiveness of trade policies.
Imports and factors affecting it, are playing an important role in the trade balance of each country.
This paper presents a new method for estimation of import demand function for Iran during 1958-1998. For empirical test, we use vector auto correlation that shows import, depends positively on oil revenues, GDP without oil and at the same time negatively affects relative prices (The ratio of imported price to domestic price). In addition, we discussed various shocks and their immediate effects on different variables through application of impulse response and variance decomposition and tried to show the effect of changes on variables, and on import demand accordingly.
Zahra Karimi Moghari
Volume 6, Issue 18 , April 2004, , Pages 57-88
Abstract
Afghan refugees are two fifths of total refugees all around the world, who are mainly living in Pakistan and Iran. Relentless wars, devastated economy and drought have not only discouraged the Afghan refugees from returning home, but also created new refugees during recent years. ...
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Afghan refugees are two fifths of total refugees all around the world, who are mainly living in Pakistan and Iran. Relentless wars, devastated economy and drought have not only discouraged the Afghan refugees from returning home, but also created new refugees during recent years. Less than 5 percent of all Afghan refugees in Iran live in refugee camps, and the rest are living in cities and villages among Iranian people, and provide their needs by working. Almost all Afghan labourers are working illegally in Iran and do not have work permission. They are unskilled and considered as cheap workers, accepting any low paying jobs. Which were formerly taken up by unskilled Iranian workers who migrated from rural areas. Because of the lack of reliable data, investigating about the exact effects of the presence of Afghan refugees in the Iranian labour market is not easy, but we can see the overall impacts on wages and unemployment rate. Afghan refugees have increased the supply of labour force in Iran for more than 2 decades. So wage increase for low skill workers has been very slow in Iran, specially in construction sector, where Afghan workers have a large share. For estimating the effects of Afghan immigrants on the unemployment rate, regression equations have been estimated. The results show that Afghan workers have been attracted to the prosperous provinces where unskilled workers were most wanted, such as Tehran, Isfahan, Khorasan. As the workers can move around easily in the country, the presence of Afghan workers in certain provinces, has not caused higher unemployment rate neither in cities nor in villages of these provinces, but unemployment rate in the country has been raised. If Afghan immigrants leave Iran, unemployment rate will decrease and the wage rate for unskilled workers will rise considerably.
Hamid Abrishami; Ali Moeini; Mohsen Mehrara; Mehdi Ahrari; Fatemeh Soleymani Kia
Volume 12, Issue 36 , October 2008, , Pages 58-37
Abstract
In this paper, we use GMDH neural network based on Genetic Algorithm to model and forecast the price of gasoline using two approaches; Deductive Method and Technical Analysis. The results of deductive method indicate that the accuracy of prediction could reach up to 96% and in technical analysis could ...
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In this paper, we use GMDH neural network based on Genetic Algorithm to model and forecast the price of gasoline using two approaches; Deductive Method and Technical Analysis. The results of deductive method indicate that the accuracy of prediction could reach up to 96% and in technical analysis could reach up to 99%. Furthermore the comparison reveals that the GMDH neural networks model consistently outperforms the regression model used in this study.
Ali Asghar Banouei
Volume 1, Issue 3 , February 1998, , Pages 58-86
Karim Azarbaijani; Seyed Komail Tayebi; Nafiseh Honari
Volume 13, Issue 40 , October 2009, , Pages 59-75
Abstract
The relationship between international trade and emigration is being concerned in most developing countries with their relevant migration and trade policies. Such policies should rely on logical resolutions in order to reduce unemployment pressure on the labor market. Hence، this study examines the ...
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The relationship between international trade and emigration is being concerned in most developing countries with their relevant migration and trade policies. Such policies should rely on logical resolutions in order to reduce unemployment pressure on the labor market. Hence، this study examines the relationship between Iran’s trade volume and labor force emigration to the five major members of the OECD (the US، Canada، the UK، the Netherlands and Sweden) over the period 1992-2004 (1371-1383).Following Mitchell and Pain (2003) and Mayda (2005)، a specified gravity model is estimated by panel data to show the impacts of determinants on the Iran’s emigration. The empirical results obtained indicate that there is a significant and complementary relationship between trade volume and the labor force emigration to the selected countries of OECD in Iran. Additionally، the results show that convergence in the labor force productivity، as a gap between the number of skilled labors falls in Iran and the OECD members، can lead to a decrease in emigration from Iran to abroad.
Ali Hassan Zadeh; Hassan Heidari
Volume 3, 8(Spring and Summer ) , April 2001, , Pages 59-78
Abstract
Research and Development expenditures in process of development and progress of economies are very important. Therefore this paper tries to determine effect of R&D expenditures on economic growth rate in the set of different countries of the world. This study has estimated the causal relation between ...
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Research and Development expenditures in process of development and progress of economies are very important. Therefore this paper tries to determine effect of R&D expenditures on economic growth rate in the set of different countries of the world. This study has estimated the causal relation between GNP growth rate, and R&D expenditures, fiscal investment, and growth rate of labor force of countries during 1991-95. By using the World Bank data, we have estimated our model for groups of high income and lower income countries. We found that the R&D activities have significant and great effect on GNP growth rate in all countries, especially in developing countries.
Saeed Rasekhi; Seyed Peyman Asadi; Zahra Sheidaei
Abstract
The conventional literature suggests a positive relationship between the expected return and the conditional volatility, but according to the empirical evidence there is not a specific and constant relationship between them. In this regard, the study investigates the role of significant characteristics ...
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The conventional literature suggests a positive relationship between the expected return and the conditional volatility, but according to the empirical evidence there is not a specific and constant relationship between them. In this regard, the study investigates the role of significant characteristics of financial asset prices including time-varying conditional volatility and jump in the relationship between risk and return in Tehran stock market. For this purpose the ARJI-GARCH model which includes both features is applied and the results are compared with two more simple models i.e. GARCH-M and GARCH-JUMP. The former consists of the conditional variance and the latter has both features but with the constant probability of the jump. The empirical findings using daily data from September 9th 1997 to March 15th 2015 imply that the jump component has a significant impact, and the risk of Iran’s stock returns includes both smoothly changing variance and jump events. Therefore, the traditional GARCH-M model cannot explain correctly the relationship between risk and return in Iran’s stock market. Also, the analysis of the time-varying risk premium shows that in the short-run only the risk arising from jump is significant.
Ahmad Mohammadi; Zeinab Savari
Abstract
After the unprecedented volatility of gold coin prices over the past years in Iran, there has been a growing concern among academic and policy makers about the potential role of gold coin futures contract in this regard. This paper investigates the impact of gold futures contract on the respective spot ...
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After the unprecedented volatility of gold coin prices over the past years in Iran, there has been a growing concern among academic and policy makers about the potential role of gold coin futures contract in this regard. This paper investigates the impact of gold futures contract on the respective spot market in Iran. For this purpose, two approaches have been used. In the first approach (volatility spillovers approach), a DCC-GARCH-VECM model has been employed for studying the volatility spillovers between gold coin spot and futures markets over the period November 2013- June 2015. In the second approach (dummy variable approach), the impact of the introduction of gold coin futures contract on the spot market has been analyzed using a simple GARCH model. The model is estimated by using daily spot and futures prices of gold coin in the period June 2006- June 2015. The results show that the introduction of futures contact has not affected the volatility of the spot market. Moreover, the volatility transmission is from the spot market to the futures market meaning that spot market shocks increase futures market volatility, not vice versa. Furthermore, the results show that economic sanctions against Iran have had a significant effect on the volatility of the spot market. The results are consistent with basic characteristics of the futures market in Iran: it is in the early stages of its development and its size, in comparison to the spot market, is small. Therefore it is acceptable to see that the volatility is transmitted from the spot market to the futures market.
Parviz Mohammadzadeh; Mahmood Motevasseli; Mohammad Bagher Beheshti; akram akbari
Abstract
Paying attention to economic development has always been one of the main concerns of science and politics, and in order to put economic development in a suitable path, its continuous recognition is essential. The recent findings and experiences of countries Show that creativity is the most important ...
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Paying attention to economic development has always been one of the main concerns of science and politics, and in order to put economic development in a suitable path, its continuous recognition is essential. The recent findings and experiences of countries Show that creativity is the most important and basic factor for the growth and development of the economy. This study aims to scrutinize the effect of creativity index on the economic development of Iran for the 1990-2016 period by using generalized method of moments (GMM). The findings support the idea that economic growth and development is more dependent on creativity and innovation than on formal education. In other words, education can affect economic growth and development, only if it results in creativity and innovation. Also the findings clarify that high-technology exports have the most effect on economic growth and patenting inventions has a positive effect on economic growth. Thus, it is suggested that by providing a creative ecosystem and supporting the rights of patenting, we will have creative and innovative system in the society so that through diversified economy which relies on knowledge, higher human resources, and modern technology will promote sustainable growth and development.
Saeed Karimi Potanlar; Ali Akbar Bajelan
Volume 19, Issue 61 , February 2015, , Pages 63-82
Abstract
The article is aimed at investigating the effect of the military budget expenditure share in GDP on the Iranian economic growth in the endogenous growth model framework. To meet this end, using the time-series data of Iran during 1988 to 2012 and the Auto-Regressive Distribution Lag Model, the effect ...
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The article is aimed at investigating the effect of the military budget expenditure share in GDP on the Iranian economic growth in the endogenous growth model framework. To meet this end, using the time-series data of Iran during 1988 to 2012 and the Auto-Regressive Distribution Lag Model, the effect of military budget expenditure share in GDP on economic growth has been studied. The results show an inverted U-shape relationship between economic growth and military budget expenditure share in GDP. Therefore, there is a proportion for military budget expenditure which maximizes the economic growth, which is 2.73 percent from GDP which is lower than (2.95 percent) the average proportion in the considered time period. As a result, it seems that the society can benefit from reallocating the resources to non-military budget expenditures such as education and health.
Mahmoud Khataie; Pejman Abedifar
Volume 2, Issue 6 , October 2000, , Pages 63-84
Abstract
Data over the period 1988-1997 relating to 10 Iranian Banks are used to estimate their technical efficiencies. The translog stochastic production function assumed for the estimation of the technical efficiency of Iranian banks expressed in terms of four input variables: the number of employees, fixed ...
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Data over the period 1988-1997 relating to 10 Iranian Banks are used to estimate their technical efficiencies. The translog stochastic production function assumed for the estimation of the technical efficiency of Iranian banks expressed in terms of four input variables: the number of employees, fixed assets, and three types of deposits, where total loans are regarded as output. The two models applied in this paper are Battese and Coelli, (1992), and Battese and Coelli, (1995). The technical efficiencies of the banks, using these models, are estimated, on average, to be 79.8 percent and 78.3 percent. In addition, the technical efficiencies are directly related to total assets, type of banks, the ratio of the number of branches located in Tehran, but inversly related to the ratio of loans granted under Mozarebeh and Mosharekat-e-Madani contracts, and the ratio of bank employees qualified with university education.
Ali Faridzad; Mohammad Sadegh Ghazizadeh; Kiomars Heydari
Volume 20, Issue 65 , February 2016, , Pages 63-92
Abstract
Iran is flaring about 30 million cubic meters of associated gas per day in onshore oil fields. Suboptimality of economic extraction and production of exhaustible natural resources pawn the national benefits. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is analyising the economic and technical feasibility ...
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Iran is flaring about 30 million cubic meters of associated gas per day in onshore oil fields. Suboptimality of economic extraction and production of exhaustible natural resources pawn the national benefits. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is analyising the economic and technical feasibility aspects of reusing flared associated gas based on Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). In this study time series data of average associated flared gas from 44 Iranian onshore oil fields has been employed. Additionally, three investment scenarios mean gas injection to the oil fields, electricity production and final consumption have been considered. Results of this study show that such oil fields produce less than 3 million cubic meters associated gas per day, gas injection to oil fields is the optimum alternative whereas using of associated gas to electricity generation is advised for other scenario.
Hassan Heydari
Volume 17, Issue 50 , April 2012, , Pages 65-81
Abstract
This paper investigates the use of different priors to improve the inflation forecasting performance of BVAR models with Litterman’s prior. A Quasi-Bayesian method, with several different priors, is applied to a VAR model of the Iranian economy from 1981:Q2 to 2007:Q1. A novel feature with this ...
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This paper investigates the use of different priors to improve the inflation forecasting performance of BVAR models with Litterman’s prior. A Quasi-Bayesian method, with several different priors, is applied to a VAR model of the Iranian economy from 1981:Q2 to 2007:Q1. A novel feature with this paper is the use of g-prior in the BVAR models to alleviate poor estimation of drift parameters of Traditional BVAR models. Some results are as follows: (1) our results show that in the Quasi-Bayesian framework, BVAR models with Normal-Wishart prior provides the most accurate forecasts of Iranian inflation; (2) The results also show that generally in the parsimonious models, the BVAR with g-prior performs better than BVAR with Litterman’s prior
Ali Hossein Samadi; Ali Haghighat; Kazem Aminzadeh
Volume 8, Issue 27 , July 2006, , Pages 65-87
Abstract
In this paper, we analyze the long –run relationship between inflation and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) in the Iranian economy during 1338-1380. For this purpose, we use Gregory –Hansen (1996) Cointegration test. Our Study proceeds at the following steps. 1. We set up a multivariate model ...
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In this paper, we analyze the long –run relationship between inflation and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) in the Iranian economy during 1338-1380. For this purpose, we use Gregory –Hansen (1996) Cointegration test. Our Study proceeds at the following steps. 1. We set up a multivariate model for the analysis of the long-run relationship between inflation and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) 2. We test the unit root properties of data, and the long-run relationship between variables in the presence of structural breaks. 3. We estimate endogenously the break point data. Our results from cointegration tests and dynamic ordinary least square estimator show that there is a negative relationship between inflation and productivity.
Esmaiel Abounoori; Milad Shahrazi
Abstract
In this research, the absolute poverty line based on the food poverty line is estimated using mathematical programming approach concerning urban area prices during February 2015. We first have determined a basic food basket including 76 common and important food items. Second, we have identified the ...
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In this research, the absolute poverty line based on the food poverty line is estimated using mathematical programming approach concerning urban area prices during February 2015. We first have determined a basic food basket including 76 common and important food items. Second, we have identified the basic human nutrients needs for the survival. Then we have considered the amount of nutrients in each 100 grams of the 76 food items. After that, we have collected the prices of each 100 grams of the food items using a categorized sampling covering urban areas of Mazandaran province. Mathematical Programme is constructed using the total cost function as the target function along with constraints of calorie and eight nutrients needs. The model has been solved by Simplex method and, the food poverty line is estimated. Then, using the Orshansky method the absolute poverty line is calculated. The results show that the food poverty line and the absolute poverty line for a household with four people in Mazandaran urban areas during February 2015 were about 311,000 and 1,305,000 Tomans(10 Rials), respectively.
Gholam Reza K. Haddad; Shahla Ojaghi
Volume 19, Issue 60 , October 2014, , Pages 67-99
Abstract
This article intends to examine the time allocation of children among Iranian households. It is well established that parents have different attitudes towards male and female children’s wellbeing. By making use of mother’s bargaining power and households’ expenditures and income survey ...
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This article intends to examine the time allocation of children among Iranian households. It is well established that parents have different attitudes towards male and female children’s wellbeing. By making use of mother’s bargaining power and households’ expenditures and income survey (1390), we develop a bivariate probit procedure to model the children’s time allocation between work and going to school. Our finding confirm that mother’s bargaining power has positive and significant impact on the schooling decision for both male and female children, however magnitude of its marginal effect is larger for female than male children.
Seyed Kamal Sadeghi; Majid Feshari
Volume 15, Issue 44 , October 2010, , Pages 67-83
Abstract
The main objective of this study is to estimate the long-run relationship between exports and environment quality indices for Iran over the period 1971-2007. In this study, the CO2 emissions and arable land are used as a proxy for the environmental quality. We estimate the model using the multivariate ...
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The main objective of this study is to estimate the long-run relationship between exports and environment quality indices for Iran over the period 1971-2007. In this study, the CO2 emissions and arable land are used as a proxy for the environmental quality. We estimate the model using the multivariate Johansen's co-integration technique. The results reveal that there is a long-run relationship between exports and CO2 emissions and arable land. Moreover, the variables of exports and FDI have negative and significant effects on the environmental quality indices.
