Mohammad Gholi Yousefee; Hamidreza Arbab
Volume 2, Issue 7 , February 2001, , Pages 9-40
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to study the Prospects of Economic Cooperation of ECO member countries through trade intensity, trade complementarity and trade bias indices. This study examined how the members, are serious in their economic integration and to what extent they can meet the needs and requirements ...
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The purpose of this paper is to study the Prospects of Economic Cooperation of ECO member countries through trade intensity, trade complementarity and trade bias indices. This study examined how the members, are serious in their economic integration and to what extent they can meet the needs and requirements of ECO member countries.The result shoes that trade intensity between Iran and Turkey is higher compared with other countries, however, export intensity of Turkey to Iran is higher than the value of this indice for Iran's export to Turkey.Trade intensity of Iran and Pakistan is higher than the average of this indice for the world trade. However, this indice has the minimum value for trade intensity of Iran and Pakistan. For other countries this indice does not seem to be important. Our estimate of Trade Complementarity indice shows that it is more important for trade between Iran and Pakistan and relatively much less in other countries. For other ECO member countries either the data were not available or the result was not very significant.The indice of country's trade bias shoes that Iran's tendency to trade with Pakistan and Turkey is more than the trade orientation of those countries' with Iran. This indicates that these two countries have relatively more access to Iran's market as compared to Iran's access to those countries' markets. In other words, it shows that Iran's trade preference to trade with ECO member countries is much higher than those countries' trade preferences the trade with Iran. This implies that in order that ECO becomes successful, member countries have to take necessary steps to orient their trade policies towords member countries and taking economic and trade integration more seriously.
Information and communication technology economy
Esfandiar Jahangard; Teymour Mohammadi; Ali Asghar Salem; Forough Esmaeily Sadrabadi
Abstract
The question that is considered by researchers in the field of knowledge-based economy is that among the factors affecting intangible investment, does information and communication technology have a heavier weight than the rest of the factors? In this study, using the Corrado,Hulten and Sichel (CHS) ...
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The question that is considered by researchers in the field of knowledge-based economy is that among the factors affecting intangible investment, does information and communication technology have a heavier weight than the rest of the factors? In this study, using the Corrado,Hulten and Sichel (CHS) approach, the measurement of intangible investment is calculated. In their research, intangible investment has been divided into three major parts: computer information, innovative assets, and economic competencies. Then these three components are divided into nine parts. In this article, we select the component of information and communication technology, which is the first component of intangible transitory capital, and its effect on Total Factor Productivity(TFP) has been investigated. The field of study is manufacturing industries with a four-digit economic activity classification code for employees of ten and above during the years 1996 to 2018. Using panel data and GMM, the productivity function was estimated for manufacturing industries. The results of this research show that ICT has a significant role on the productivity of all production factors, and its coefficient is higher than other intangible investment components.
Monetary economy
Seyed Saleh Akbar Mousavi; Behzad Salmani
Abstract
The main purpose of this study is to identify the determinants of banking crisis losses for 49 sample countries over the period 1980-2019. In this regard, two sub-purposes are pursued. In the first preliminary step, we identify and date episodes of banking crises for 49 countries. The graphical analysis ...
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The main purpose of this study is to identify the determinants of banking crisis losses for 49 sample countries over the period 1980-2019. In this regard, two sub-purposes are pursued. In the first preliminary step, we identify and date episodes of banking crises for 49 countries. The graphical analysis of crises showed that about half of the crises were occurred between 2008-2012 in which the share of high-income countries was higher than other country groups. Then, in the second preliminary step, we used the Hodrick-Prescott filter to extract different trends from countries' GDPs to calculate four alternative measures of real output losses. The investigated output losses showed that Angola and Greece had the highest and lowest losses among the four types of losses, respectively. Finally, to achieve the main purpose, we use the Poisson quasi-maximum likelihood (PPML) method to estimate model. The model was estimated without and with currency crisis variable. Our findings show the occurrence of a currency crisis is effective in intensifying output losses following banking crises. Also, the variables of inflation, bank credit to GDP, credit-to-GDP gap, public debt/GDP, with a positive effect and variables of financial openness, discretionary government spending and central bank assets with a negative impact, are important factors in output losses of banking crisis. Therefore, we recommend that the mentioned variables be considered in banking crisis management.
Financial Economics
Gholam Reza Keshavarz Haddad; Iman Sharifi
Abstract
The book-to-market ratio is known as an anomaly variable in the financial literature. This variable has a high explanatory power in predicting the returns of companies in different capital markets across world; But understanding why it has the power to explain is still a matter of debate. In this study, ...
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The book-to-market ratio is known as an anomaly variable in the financial literature. This variable has a high explanatory power in predicting the returns of companies in different capital markets across world; But understanding why it has the power to explain is still a matter of debate. In this study, we seek a clear understanding of the explanatory power of the ratio of book-to-market ratio in explaining the annual return of cross-sectional data of stocks on the Tehran Stock Exchange. Book value can be divided into two parts: retained earnings and contributed capital, which have different economic meanings for readers of financial statements. Our hypothesis is that the predictive power of the book-to-market ratio arises from a component of book value that could be a good proxy for underlying earnings yield. Using the method of Fama and Macbeth (1973), we regress the annual return of cross-sectional data of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange for the years 2001-2019 on the ratio of book-to-market ratio and its two components. Neither component of book-to-market ratio could eliminate the predictive power of this ratio; however, the ratio of retained Earnings-to-market ratio could show predictive power along with the book-to-market ratio. We contribute to the literature by providing additional evidence from Tehran's Stock Exchange.1- IntroductionThe book-to-market ratio is known as an anomaly variable in the financial literature. It has appeared as a key explanatory variable with high explanatory power in predicting the returns of firms in capital markets across the world, however, understanding the mechanism through which this financial factor functions and its origin of the explanatory power is still a matter of research debates. Empirical researches on the returns and “book to market value” can be divided into two strands. The first group aims to examine the existence of abnormal returns on the ratio of "book to market value" in the stock markets. This stream of works aim to answer the question of whether the "book to market value" is able to predict companies' returns in capital markets or the returns is caused by other sources including random noise. Rosenberg et al. (1985) show, for instance, that in the US capital market, the strategy of the "book to market value" can yield abnormal returns for investors. In terms of this strategy, at the beginning of each month, the shares with a high "book to market value" are bought and the shares that have a low "book to market value" ratio are sold. A relationship between the ratio and average stock returns for the period 1981-1981 in the capital markets of Switzerland, France, Germany and the United Kingdom has also been observed by Coppole, Rollie and Sharp (1992). The second stream of studies on the "book to market value" seeks to understand the cause of its explanatory power. This issue is an active research area and is still subject of discussions and has been studied from various aspects. One of the most highly cited of them is Fama and French (1993), which attributes high returns in stocks with a higher magnitude of "book to market value", to higher systematic risk. In contrast, Daniel and Titman (1997) introduces the hypothesis of equity characteristics and by providing empirical evidence argues that the returns premia on high book-to-market stocks does not arises because of the co-movements of these stocks with pervasive factors. It is the characteristics of the share rather than the covariance structure of returns that appear to explain the cross-sectional variation in stock returns. So, these are not associated with greater risk tolerance. Ball, Gerakos, Linnaeus, and Nikolaev (2020) examines the "book to market value" through its components (retained earnings and contributed capital) in the US capital market. He argues that the ability of "book to market value" to predict the cross-sectional returns is not because of its intrinsic information contents, but it appears as an appropriate proxy for the actual profitability of the firms, because, the retained earnings component of the book value of equity includes the accumulation and, hence, the averaging of past earnings, instead the contributed capital-to-market has no predictive power. HypothesesWe contribute to the literature by providing additional evidence from Tehran's Stock Exchange. Our study aims to provide further evidence to clarify explanatory power of the ratio in predicting the variations of annual returns in cross-sectional data for stocks in the Tehran Stock Exchange. Our hypothesis is that the predictive power of the book-to-market ratio arises from a component of book value that could be an appropriate proxy for underlying earnings yield. Data and Identification methodologyWe use the annual returns and financial statements of all shares traded from the beginning of 2001 to the end of 2020 in Tehran Stock Exchange. Annual returns are calculated from price data recorded and reported in the “tseclient” software and accounting data are downloaded from “codal.ir” website. In this research, financial companies listed in the TSE have not been included in our working sample due to their special nature. Because, by nature of their activities, they have high financial leverage, which is normal for companies active in the financial field. The characteristics might be interpreted as a financially critical situation, whereas, the it is not so for firm that are active in financial fields. The information extracted from the financial statements is matched with the annual return of 1 month after the end of the financial year. The reason for this identification strategy is to make sure that the published financial information affects the share price. For example, if the company's financial year is at the end of March, we will assume that this information was available to the public at the end of April. Findings Following the statistical method of Fama and Macbeth (1973), we regress the annual return for cross-sectional data of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange over the years 2001-2019 on the ratio of book-to-market ratio and its two components as well. Neither component of book-to-market ratio could eliminate the predictive power of book-to-market; however, the ratio of retained Earnings-to-market ratio could show predictive power along with the book-to-market ratio. Table (1) reports the Fama and Macbeth (1973) regressions in which, outcome of interest is returns and determinants of the regression are the log of "Book to Market Value", log of " Retained Earnings to the Market Value " and log of "Contributed Capital to Market value". We include a few controlling variables that are identified theoretically as determinants of returns.Table(1): Contributed Capital and Retained Earnings in the Fama and Macbeth Regression(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)Variables-0.129**-0.128**-0.116**-0.0901**-0.126**-0.103**Log(Market Value)(-2.680)(-2.762)(-2.492)(-2.474)(-2.257)(-2.228)0.498** 0.210** 0.508** Log( Book-to-Maket)(2.744) (2.471) (2.342) 10.53***8.557** 9.914**Log(Retained Earnings to market Value) (2.992)(2.426) (2.890) 0.371***0.004060.255***Log(Contributed Capital) (3.446)(0.0438)(3.343) 0.619***0.560*** 0.415**Binary if profit>0 (3.382)(3.058) (2.256)2.973**-19.64***-15.47**2.429**2.959**-18.34**Constant(2.731)(-2.907)(-2.272)(2.825)(2.534)(-2.806) 3,7943,7943,7943,7943,7943,794#OBS0.1210.1440.1880.0990.1350.189R-Square212121212121# Groups*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1, t-stats in parenthesisNote: the firms fixed effect regression over 2001- 2021 across 181 firms are reported in the columns. Contributed capital includes all of the book value accounts except retained earnings. Column (1) shows the regression of annual stock returns on the logarithm of "book to market value" in the presence of a control variable, logarithm of market value. The estimated coefficient for "logarithm of book to market value" equals to 0.498 with t-statistic t = 2.74, which is statistically significant at 5 percent critical region. The result is in the same direction with those in previous studies on the "book to market value". In column (2), "logarithm of retained earnings to market value" has been replaced for "logarithm book to market value". The coefficient of " logarithm of retained earnings to market value" is equal to 10.53 and is statistically different from zero at the 1 percent significance level with the estimated t = 2.99. In column (3), two variables "logarithm of book to market value" and "logarithm of retained earnings to market value" are included in the model. The coefficients of "logarithm of retained earnings on market value" and the "logarithm of book to market value" are significant at the conventional significance level. It suggesting that, "logarithm of book to market value" and "logarithm of retained earnings market value" are not able to fully represent the information contained in their competitors, as determinants of the firms' annual returns.The columns (4) and (5), report similar regressions by substituting "logarithm of contributed capital to market value" in place of "logarithm of retained earnings to market value". Once, we include this determinant alone, it significantly impacts (coefficient 0.371 with t = 3.446) annual returns, but if we add "logarithm of book to market value", to the specification "logarithm of contributed capital on market value" loses its significance and its t statistic drops to 0.0438. Meanwhile, the "logarithm of book to market value" remains significant at the 5 percent level. In the column (6), in addition to the "Book to market Ratio "we keep both "logarithm of retained earnings to market value" and "logarithm of contributed capital to market value" in the specification. The coefficient of "logarithm of retained earnings to market value" remains almost with no tangible change 9.914 with and significant, and the coefficient of "logarithm of contributed capital on market value" is appears significant as well.The inability of "logarithm of retained earnings to market value" to absorb the effect of "logarithm of book to market value" can be due to the weakness of this financial account in representing the companies' profitability information. This might originates in the fact that the retained earnings account is not an appropriate representative of the company's profitability. More specifically, this account is the balance of profits that have not been distributed among investors, it is not representative of all the company's acquired profits, and in each period that: (1) the company distributes profits among investors or (2) transfers an amount from this account to another account in equity, a part of the information in the accumulated profit will also be removed from this account. Consequently, this account cannot contain all the profitability information of the company. When the company distributes profits to shareholders, the company's profitability information is removed away from both the retained earnings balance and the book value. For this reason, we simply return the amounts transferred from the retained earnings account to other equity accounts to the retained earnings account and define the adjusted retained earnings account and the adjusted contributed capital as follows:Adjusted retained earnings = retained earnings + legal reserve + plan and development reserve + other reserves + total capital increase from retained earnings until the end of the reported year + total other transfers from retained earnings until the end of the reported yearAdjusted Contributed Capital = Equity - Adjusted Retained EarningsAdjusted retained earnings is the balance of all profits earned by the company during its life and not withdrawn from the company. The adjusted contributed capital is equal to the book value minus the adjusted retained earnings. To test our hypothesis, we separated "book to market value" into two parts (1) "adjusted retained earnings on market value" and (2) "adjusted contributed capital on market value". The significance level of the coefficient of "book to market value" decreases when it is included in the model beside to "adjusted retained earnings to market value", in contrast to the specification that includes the "retained earnings to market value", however, the coefficient of "book to market value" is still significant at the 5 percent significance level. The significance of the coefficient of "adjusted retained earnings to market value" also improves, in comparison to all similar regressions in which unadjusted "retained earnings to market value" are used as determinant. All in all, this evidence shows that a part of the information in "book value to market value" is caused by a variable that is related to the company's profitability, but not all the information in "book to market value" is caused by the company's profitability.
Saeed Moshiri
Volume 4, Issue 11 , July 2002, , Pages 11-53
Abstract
Macroeconomics has undergone enormous changes since its birth in 1930s. Although the new developments have enhanced our understanding of macroeconomic problems and policies effects, their fast pace and vast areas have made catching up difficult for both teachers and students in the field. In this paper, ...
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Macroeconomics has undergone enormous changes since its birth in 1930s. Although the new developments have enhanced our understanding of macroeconomic problems and policies effects, their fast pace and vast areas have made catching up difficult for both teachers and students in the field. In this paper, I review the recent developments in macroeconomics models, approaches, methodologies, and tools. I start with the traditional macroeconomics models, i.e. Keynesian and classics, and quickly turn to Post-Keynesian, New Classics, New Keynesian, and real business cycle approaches. I then briefly touch upon the game theory, growth, general equilibrium, and computational models and their applications in macroeconomics. I also provide a short comparative analysis about teaching and research in macroeconomics in Iran versus the rest of the world, mainly Western universities. The paper ends with predictions about the future of the field along with some recommendations on teaching and research in macroeconomics, particularly for the Iranian universities.
Hossein Abbasi Nejad; Shapour Mohamadi
Volume 4, Issue 12 , October 2002, , Pages 11-28
Abstract
Sudden jumps, qualitative changes and discontinuities are not rare in social and economic phenomena. Catastrophe theory is a proper approach to modeling of dynamical systems that a company faces with sudden jump. Catastrophe theory can be applied in areas such as nonlinear growth models, technical changes, ...
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Sudden jumps, qualitative changes and discontinuities are not rare in social and economic phenomena. Catastrophe theory is a proper approach to modeling of dynamical systems that a company faces with sudden jump. Catastrophe theory can be applied in areas such as nonlinear growth models, technical changes, institutional changes, Philips curve, stock market, consumers' behavior and monopolistic behavior. This paper tends to clarify the theory and provide a general guideline to application of it in specific subjects.
Ali Asghar Banouei; Mina Mahmoudi
Volume 3, 8(Spring and Summer ) , April 2001, , Pages 13-42
Abstract
The Keynesian macro - economic model of a single producer and a single consumer, Kaldor, Passineti, and Kalechi's Model of a single producer and many consumers, and Leontief's model of many producers and a single consumer have certain limitations. These models are inadequate ...
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The Keynesian macro - economic model of a single producer and a single consumer, Kaldor, Passineti, and Kalechi's Model of a single producer and many consumers, and Leontief's model of many producers and a single consumer have certain limitations. These models are inadequate in simultaneously analyzing direct and indirect effects of consumption, primary income and structure of production on potential sectional employment. In this study, the Semi - Social Accounting Matrix (Semi - SAM) has been introduced in order to overcome some of these limitations. The main focus of this article is on the methodology and treatment of endogen sing consumption and income of household with respect to mixed income, geographical classification, the interrelationship with consumption, primary income, and structure of production. The results show that as compared to the Leontief Model, the Semi - SAM approach is more flexible in revealing the potential sectoral employment of the economy.
Seyed Ahmad Reza Jalali Naieni; Fatemeh Nazifi
Volume 3, 9(Autumn and Winter ) , October 2001, , Pages 13-41
Abstract
This paper tests whether positive and negative monetary shocks have symmetric effects on output growth. The new classical models imply symmetric effects. While new Keynesian models predict asymmetric effects. New Keynesians argue credit rationing and the downward inflexibility of wages and ...
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This paper tests whether positive and negative monetary shocks have symmetric effects on output growth. The new classical models imply symmetric effects. While new Keynesian models predict asymmetric effects. New Keynesians argue credit rationing and the downward inflexibility of wages and prices are the primary reasons for the asymmetric effects. This paper tests this proposition by utilizing three different methods, namely Two - Step OLS procedure used by Barro, Nonlinear Least Squares and SUR, for the Iranian economy during the period 1959 - 1990. The results support the hypothesis of asymmetric effects of monetary shocks. More specifically, positive shocks have no significant effects on output growth while negative shocks have a negative effect on output growth.
Mohamad Hoseyn Hamzeh Poor; Seyed Kazem Sadr; Mohammad Ali Kafaie
Volume 4, Issue 10 , April 2002, , Pages 13-39
Abstract
A model of Islamic taxes is developed in this study and then the performance of present Iranian corporate tax system is tested against it. The estimated income tax elasticity, results and analysis of variance of corporate taxes in alternative groups show that present taxing practices are at variance ...
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A model of Islamic taxes is developed in this study and then the performance of present Iranian corporate tax system is tested against it. The estimated income tax elasticity, results and analysis of variance of corporate taxes in alternative groups show that present taxing practices are at variance with the Islamic tax model implications. The results are obtained from a survey of 10108 corporate tax files submitted to the Tax Department in the year 1373 (1994). To obtain tax efficiency and equity, which are the goals of the Islamic tax model, a new system of corporate taxing were proposed to be adopted, given that the government’s tax income would not decline. The simulation results of the new system show that both higher efficiency and equity standards are obtained and government income tax receipts are not curtailed.
Abdolmajid Jalaee; Amir Habibdoost
Volume 17, Issue 52 , October 2012, , Pages 9-32
Abstract
In this paper we examine the relationship between exchange rate movements and stock return (Firm value), which is known as Exchange Rate Exposure, using a Time-Scale approach in different sectors of Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). In this regard, we decompose the exchange rate percent ...
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In this paper we examine the relationship between exchange rate movements and stock return (Firm value), which is known as Exchange Rate Exposure, using a Time-Scale approach in different sectors of Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). In this regard, we decompose the exchange rate percent changes and stock return over the period 1998-2008, as well as the period 2004-2008(according to data limitation), by applying MODWT method; moreover, we run wavelet base regression and analyze wavelet variance, covariance and correlation. Results reveals that exchange rate exposure not only differs from one sector to other sector but it also differs through time scales. Hence, this issue should be considered as a multi scales problem.
Homayoun Ranjbar; Seyed Komail Tayyebi; Rahman Khoshakhlagh
Volume 8, Issue 28 , October 2006, , Pages 15-37
Abstract
The possible WTO membership of Iran not only depends on liberalizing the trade sector but also needs to meet the relevant conditions of a specific development process. To examine these conditions we specify an unconstrained first-order autoregressive model of the Almost Ideal Demand System(AIDS), as ...
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The possible WTO membership of Iran not only depends on liberalizing the trade sector but also needs to meet the relevant conditions of a specific development process. To examine these conditions we specify an unconstrained first-order autoregressive model of the Almost Ideal Demand System(AIDS), as a long-run demand model, for Iran’s import allocation over foreign and domestic supplies of manufacturer.
In this paper, the structural stability of the AIDS model is tested by using time series data for the period 1993-2002. The significance of trade liberalization, proxied by a dummy variable over the period reveals both trade creation and trade diversion in the Iran’s imports
In addition, the conduction of different scenarios on reducing tariff, arising from the Iran’s fourth development program, over the ex-ante period 2003-2007 indicates that there is no structure break in the country’s import demand. The implication of this result is that a decrease in tariff through a relatively accelerated speed of adjustment can be utilized for the promotion of trade between Iran and her trading partners.
Zahra Afshari; Maryam Hemati
Volume 18, Issue 55 , July 2013, , Pages 17-46
Abstract
In this study, we first identify boom and bust cycles in house real prices, defined as major and persistent deviations from long-term trends, and then analyze the factors affecting the cycles. To identify the cycles, we follow the dating approach known as triangular methodology initially proposed ...
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In this study, we first identify boom and bust cycles in house real prices, defined as major and persistent deviations from long-term trends, and then analyze the factors affecting the cycles. To identify the cycles, we follow the dating approach known as triangular methodology initially proposed by Harding and Pagan (2002) and used by many researchers, such as Jaeger & Schuknecht (2007) and Agnello & Schuknecht (2009). We also apply the Probit model to estimate the determinants of these cycles. The Probit model makes it possible to evaluate the marginal effect of each driving factors of housing prices on boom-bust probabilities. Results suggest that the growth of real liquidity balances has the largest and statistically significant marginal effects on the probabilities of booms in housing market. This indicates that the expansionary monetary policy might lead to sharp booms in housing market through liquidity and credit expansion.
Seyed Komail Tayebi; Hoshang Shajari; Mohamad Vaez Barazani; Ahmad Googerdchain
Volume 12, Issue 36 , October 2008, , Pages 17-36
Abstract
The expansion of international trade has influenced deeply many economies to converge (Slaughter 1998). Now a question can be raised whether the establishment of an economic union (a currency union, for instance) can lead to income convergence or it may cause income divergence between members of that ...
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The expansion of international trade has influenced deeply many economies to converge (Slaughter 1998). Now a question can be raised whether the establishment of an economic union (a currency union, for instance) can lead to income convergence or it may cause income divergence between members of that union.
This paper examines whether the membership of countries in a block for trade expansion enables their economies to move toward income convergence, while the result should be different between countries in north, or north and south. To this end, the objective, the paper uses a difference-indifferences (DID) analysis to measure the rate of income convergence (divergence) before and after establishing a currency union. The results obtained approve that the implementing of currency union affects significantly and directly income convergence in the world, while this effect in much more pronounced in North-South countries than of North-South ones.
Karim Eslamloueyan; Hashem Zare
Volume 8, Issue 29 , February 2007, , Pages 17-46
Abstract
This paper uses a quarterly data to study the effect of the main economic variables on the stock price index in Iran over the period 1993:3–2003:2. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration analysis is used to study both short- and long-run movements of stock prices in ...
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This paper uses a quarterly data to study the effect of the main economic variables on the stock price index in Iran over the period 1993:3–2003:2. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration analysis is used to study both short- and long-run movements of stock prices in Tehran stock market. The explanatory variables include money supply, production level of large manufacturing companies, and the ratio of domestic to foreign price level, exchange rate, oil price, gold coin price, and housing price index.
The results show that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables. According to our finding, the ratio of domestic to foreign price levels, the price of housing and the gold coin price index have positive impacts on the stock prices. Exchange rate and money supply have significant negative effects on the stock price index in Iran. However, we found that the production level of large manufacturing companies has not affected the stock price index. The result of our error correction model indicated that 54 percent of deviation of the stock price from its equilibrium path is corrected each period.
Masoud Derakhshan
Volume 16, Issue 46 , April 2011, , Pages 19-46
Abstract
In this paper, we first consider the role of rational expectations, the Lucas critique and the policy ineffectiveness debate in economic applications of optimal control theory. The problem of time-inconsistency in optimal control of macro-economic models with rational expectations will then be analyzed. ...
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In this paper, we first consider the role of rational expectations, the Lucas critique and the policy ineffectiveness debate in economic applications of optimal control theory. The problem of time-inconsistency in optimal control of macro-economic models with rational expectations will then be analyzed. The impact of reputation and the stochastic environment on the problem of inconsistency in dynamic choice together with the question of how can the developments in optimal control of macroeconomic models with forward-looking expectations contribute to the practice of econometric model building are the other topics which are discussed. We have adopted a historical approach in this paper, and the scope of our analysis is confined to the basic contributions made in the 20th Century.
alireza karbasi; Hamideh Khaksar Astaneh
Volume 5, Issue 15 , July 2003, , Pages 19-35
Abstract
The first objective of this study is to understand the interaction between the industrial and agricultural sectors of Iran, and the second is to evaluate the relationship between tomato production, and the GDP industrial growth. It uses a simultaneous analysis of the impact of agricultural and industrial ...
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The first objective of this study is to understand the interaction between the industrial and agricultural sectors of Iran, and the second is to evaluate the relationship between tomato production, and the GDP industrial growth. It uses a simultaneous analysis of the impact of agricultural and industrial GDP on one another.The data were collected from PDS information bank and FAO and cover the period 1978-2000. Estimation was done by the ordinary least squares (OLS) method and two-stage least squares (2SLS).Results show that these sectors are complementary to each other, but agriculture tends to benefit more from industrial growth. Also, the results indicate that the tomato production can be affected by industrial growth, but the tomato production coefficient is small in tomato - dependent GDP industrial equation, meaning that tomato production has little impact on industrial growth.
Farhad Khodadad Kashi; Mohammadnabi Shahekitash
Volume 17, Issue 51 , July 2012, , Pages 21-42
Abstract
This paper aims to examine the relationship between the structural and performance variables in 140 Iranian industries, besides investigating structure of industrial markets according to the Four-firm concentration ratio plus cost advantage ratio (CDR). Then the study estimates efficiency level of the ...
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This paper aims to examine the relationship between the structural and performance variables in 140 Iranian industries, besides investigating structure of industrial markets according to the Four-firm concentration ratio plus cost advantage ratio (CDR). Then the study estimates efficiency level of the industries under the stochastic frontier technique in 4 digits ISIC code so that finally the relationship between the structure and performance based on the SCP pattern has been examined through the estimated efficiency level. Additionally, we applied the bootstrap approach in order to have more precise judgment on the gained results. The findings indicate that firstly the industries with high concentration intensity are more inefficient, in other words there is an adverse relationship between the monopoly power and efficiency in Iranian industries which obviously imply that Unlike the Chicago notion, here the monopoly power does not originate from the efficiency, and we shall look for other possible reasons pertaining to this phenomena. Secondly, the industries with more intensity of entry barrier are more inefficient, it means that the role of entry barrier due to lack of competition is of significance in creating the inefficiency in the industrial sector. Thirdly, those industries which have more shares of governmental activities compared to private sector indicate lower efficiency. Which mean that there is a negative relationship between the government presence and efficiency of industrial activities.
Anoshirvan Taghipour
Volume 12, Issue 37 , February 2009, , Pages 21-37
Hassan Heidari; Arash Refah-Kahriz
Abstract
Attitude towards the role of government and reasons for the existence of government have experienced several changes and revisions during the last century. Attitude changes alter the duties and responsibilities assigned to the government and thus change the size and composition of public expenditure. ...
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Attitude towards the role of government and reasons for the existence of government have experienced several changes and revisions during the last century. Attitude changes alter the duties and responsibilities assigned to the government and thus change the size and composition of public expenditure. In the context of these attitudes, there are factors that could explain the changes in the size and the growth of government and consequently the government intervention in the economy over time and among different countries. This study investigates the relationship between government size and macroeconomic variables including economic growth, growth of oil revenues, growth of tax revenues, inflation in Iran using seasonal data during the period of 1990:1 – 2014:4 by applying Markov Regime Switching model. The results show that in the selected model consisting of two regimes with different government sizes, economic growth has a significant negative impact on government size in both regimes of zero and one. But inflation has different effects on government size: it has a negative effect in the regime zero (smaller government) and a positive effect in the regime one (bigger government). Moreover, the growth of oil revenues has a positive effect in both regimes, but the growth of tax revenues has a positive effect only in the regime one. Also, the results indicate that the government size in Iran has often been in the regime one with bigger government size and it is predicted that bigger government will be more sustainable than smaller government.
Seyed Safdar Hosseini; Heydar GholiZadeh
Volume 14, Issue 43 , July 2010, , Pages 23-54
Abstract
Since Phillips’ paper in 1958, the literature Phillips curve has witnessed many changes. With a new look, the present study pursues to explain inflation shocks and their relation with unemployment, using a time series data for the period 1965-2005. In this framework, the effects of changes ...
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Since Phillips’ paper in 1958, the literature Phillips curve has witnessed many changes. With a new look, the present study pursues to explain inflation shocks and their relation with unemployment, using a time series data for the period 1965-2005. In this framework, the effects of changes in labor, commodity and money markets on inflation fluctuations are investigated. The unobservable variables of potential production, expected inflation and expected unemployment are estimated using the Hodrick-Prescott filter. The methodology based on Fomby’s approach, which selects suitable time series model, results in estimating the VAR model. The results suggest lack of any significant relation between unemployment and inflation fluctuations. The international evidences suggest that the Phillips curve exists in the nearly full employment conditions. The long stagflation in Iran may be the reason for our finding of the lack of such a relation.
Esmaiel Abounoori; Reza Abbasi Ghadi
Volume 9, Issue 30 , April 2007, , Pages 23-52
Abstract
Economic growth in addition to the direct income effect on poverty has an indirect distribution effect. The main purpose of this research is to estimate the net economic growth effect on poverty in Iran during the periods 1982-1988, the first socio-economic development plan (1989-1993), the second plan ...
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Economic growth in addition to the direct income effect on poverty has an indirect distribution effect. The main purpose of this research is to estimate the net economic growth effect on poverty in Iran during the periods 1982-1988, the first socio-economic development plan (1989-1993), the second plan (1995-1999), and a part of the third plan (2000-2001). The results indicate that poverty increased during 1982-1988. Decomposing poverty shows that the reduction in inequality alleviated the level of poverty due to the economic recession. This implies that the reduction in the share of the lower income groups were relatively smaller than that of the higher income groups. Although the poverty increased in this period,, the poor has suffered less relative to the rich. In general, throughout the economic plans era, growth has not been pro-poor, except in the third development plan; the increase in the share of higher income groups has always been relatively more than that of the lower income groups.
Mahmood Khataei; Parvin Eghdami
Volume 7, Issue 25 , February 2006, , Pages 23-46
Abstract
In this paper, using ARDL method, price elasticity of demand for gasoline is estimated for period 1980-2002. The elasticity is forecasted for he period 2003-2015. The results show that there is a negative and weak relation between real price gasoline (RPG) and gasoline demand. If the RPG rises one unit ...
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In this paper, using ARDL method, price elasticity of demand for gasoline is estimated for period 1980-2002. The elasticity is forecasted for he period 2003-2015. The results show that there is a negative and weak relation between real price gasoline (RPG) and gasoline demand. If the RPG rises one unit (200 Rials in nominal price), the gasoline demand would fall 18.5 units (1850 million liters) per year. It seems the reason foe such a low effect is the government polices to keep nominal price of gasoline (NPG) lower than international one. At such a low price, the demand elasticity is very low. In order to forecast the gasoline demand elasticity, three scenarios for NPG rises are considered. The results indicate that, by a 10% annual rise in the NPG, the gasoline demand elasticity would decrease. By a 30% annual rise in the NPG per year, gasoline demand elasticity would increase slowly reaching -0.50 in the last year by forecast. By a 50% annual rise in the NPG per year, gasoline demand elasticity would increase rapidly and it would reach to less than -1.
Abbas Shakeri
Volume 6, Issue 21 , February 2005, , Pages 23-50
Abstract
The purpose of this paper has been to estimate the impact of price and non-price variables on non-oil exports of Iran. The non-oil exports are considred to be a function of monetary variables, such as the exchange rate, inflation rate, and two non-price variables, as productivity and competitiveness. ...
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The purpose of this paper has been to estimate the impact of price and non-price variables on non-oil exports of Iran. The non-oil exports are considred to be a function of monetary variables, such as the exchange rate, inflation rate, and two non-price variables, as productivity and competitiveness. We use the ARDL technique to estimate the relation. The results indicate that the non-price variables play a significant role in promoting non-oil exports in Iran. Free exchange rate and inflation rate, though had positive sign, are not very important. These findings indicate that in order to increase the non-oil exports, Iran has to remove the constraints on the efficient functioning of price variables and emphasis more on "productivity" and "competitiveness".
Mansour Zarra Nezhad
Volume 5, Issue 16 , October 2003, , Pages 23-46
Abstract
Consumption function explains the relationship between consumption expenditures and income. This study aims to estimate the aggregate consumption function in Iran during 1974-1998. Considering the presence of duality in the economy of Iran، the study deals with consumption function in rural and urban ...
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Consumption function explains the relationship between consumption expenditures and income. This study aims to estimate the aggregate consumption function in Iran during 1974-1998. Considering the presence of duality in the economy of Iran، the study deals with consumption function in rural and urban sectors، separately. In addition، another disaggregation has been made to consider the consumption of durable and non-durable goods in those two sectors.The study reviews the consumption theory of Keynes، Dusernberry، Modigliany as well as Friedman. Then it testes empirically these theories in the economy of Iran applying an econometric method using OLS، interactive Cochrane-Orcutt and two step Wallis technique. To avoid a spurious regression it was assured that all variables are cointegrated. Findings from this research show that the aggregate consumption in Iran during 1974-1998 is more compatible with Friedman’s theory of permanent income. Other related theories are not deliberately able to explain the consumption behaviour in Iran.The findings also show that the long-run consumption function in Iran slops up constantly with no intercept. Therefore، in the long run، the marginal propensity to consume in Iran equals the average propensity to consume.
Ahmad Jafari Samimi
Volume 1, Issue 2 , October 1996, , Pages 24-40
