Azam Ashourzadeh; Mohammad Taher Ahmadi Shadmehri; Masoud Homayounifar
Abstract
This study, by using data envelopment window analysis method examines the efficiency of 9 Iran’s oil refinery over the period of 2008-2013. Results of the study has shown that, during the period of study, only Kermanshah refinery was efficient in four windows and the rest of the refineries have ...
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This study, by using data envelopment window analysis method examines the efficiency of 9 Iran’s oil refinery over the period of 2008-2013. Results of the study has shown that, during the period of study, only Kermanshah refinery was efficient in four windows and the rest of the refineries have experienced a stable trend of inefficiency. The inefficiency of oil refining companies has been mostly due to inefficiency in resource management. Inefficient companies in the field of scale efficiency have had a decreasing return to scale, that can be achieved by reducing the size of the company to the optimal scale. The highest amount of resources wasted in the refineries was related to the refinery's fuel and feed consumption. Isfahan refinery had the highest loss of capacity, fuel and feed consumption, and Abadan refinery had the most labor force wastage.
Macroeconomics
Mohammad Ali Aboutorabi; Mehdi Hajamini; Sahar Tohidi
Abstract
In recent decades, the effect of financial development on real sector growth has been discussed from different aspects. This paper focuses on financial structure and explains the role of bank-based and market-based financial structures on economic growth by classifying the literature. Using the FMOLS ...
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In recent decades, the effect of financial development on real sector growth has been discussed from different aspects. This paper focuses on financial structure and explains the role of bank-based and market-based financial structures on economic growth by classifying the literature. Using the FMOLS method for the period 1979-2016, the effects of financial structure and banking structure on per capita GDP and sectors’ growth (agriculture, industry, and services) in Iran are estimated. Empirical findings indicate that discriminating policies and bias in financial structure in favor of a specific sector has a negative effect on real sector growth, especially agriculture and industry. Therefore, in support of the design of a balanced financial structure, it is recommended that the state should avoid any intervention or discrimination in favor of a specific sector. In the case of banking structure, the findings show that increasing the financial strength of banks encourages economic growth.
Macroeconomics
Narges Hajimoladarvish; Neda Mozaffaripour
Abstract
Replacement of labourers by robots and automation has been one of the oldest concerns in the labour market, and many people have attributed rising unemployment to the growth of innovation and technology. Some researchers have linked the impact of technology on employment to breadth and depth of markets. ...
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Replacement of labourers by robots and automation has been one of the oldest concerns in the labour market, and many people have attributed rising unemployment to the growth of innovation and technology. Some researchers have linked the impact of technology on employment to breadth and depth of markets. Available evidence suggests that the impact of innovation and technology on employment depends on the international competitiveness of countries and the quality of their workforce. Since the economic complexity index measures both exports and the level of available knowledge in economies, it can be a good candidate for considering the breadth and depth of markets. The present study examines the effect of economic complexity on unemployment by controlling for GDP and inflation and asks whether there is a level of innovation determining the relationship between the economic complexity and unemployment. For this purpose, we use a panel threshold regression for a period 2008- 2017. Findings show that the relationship between economic complexity and unemployment is non-linear. Moreover, there is the evidence of substitution of labour by robots when the innovation index is in the range of [0.456, 0.493).
Hamid Balali; Fateme Yousefi; Reza Movahedi
Abstract
One of the most efficient and effective solutions available for water demand management is using economic tools (such as water markets). Different aspects of water management including technical, economical, social and legal structure are important and essential in water market creation and development. ...
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One of the most efficient and effective solutions available for water demand management is using economic tools (such as water markets). Different aspects of water management including technical, economical, social and legal structure are important and essential in water market creation and development. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the factors affecting the creation and development of the water market in the Hamedan-Bahar plain. This research is based on a quantitative and descriptive-analytical method. The population of the study includes water-bearing farmers in Hamedan-Bahar plain (N = 3048). Data, were gathered by surveying method through researcher-made questionnaire to evaluate farmers' opinions in order to investigate the factors affecting the creation and development of the water market in the Hamedan-Bahar plain in 2018-2019. The sample size is 240 determined based on the Cochran formula. Cronbach's alpha coefficient was used to examine the reliability of the research tool, which was 0.91. Results showed, the elimination of legal conflicts, recognition of the water market, definition of water exchange rights, the installation of smart meters and the mechanism for delivering water volumes as technical agricultural factors are the most effective factors in water market creation and development.
Efficiency and Productivity Approaches
Mohammad Gholi Yousefi; Hamid Amadeh; Shima Sangsari
Abstract
In this paper we have tried to evaluate efficiency and productivity performance of Iranian manufacturing industries during the period 1995-2015. For this purpose we have used the data of Iranian two digits manufacturing Industries based on ISIC classification and used technique of Data Envelopment Analysis ...
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In this paper we have tried to evaluate efficiency and productivity performance of Iranian manufacturing industries during the period 1995-2015. For this purpose we have used the data of Iranian two digits manufacturing Industries based on ISIC classification and used technique of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Malamquist Index. To compare the relative performance of manufacturing industries, we have then compared this performance of Iranian industries with an ideal Index which we have constructed based on the average performance of the three developed industrialized economies of USA, Germany and Japan. The result shows that not only productivity and efficiency of Iranian manufacturing industries are very low in almost all the branches in absolute terms, but also inefficiency are more pronounced when compared with our estimated ideal Index. Our disaggregation of efficiencies performance also shows that in almost all industrial branches allocative inefficiency is much higher than technical inefficiencies, indicating that , government macroeconomic mismanagement leads to inflationary pressures and high costs.
Political economy
Behrouz Sadeghi Amroabadi; Ehsan Kazemi
Abstract
Improving the quality of institutions with development of the country's economic infrastructure can reduce the degree of fiscal policy cycles in developing countries. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of good governance and political cycles on the liquidity and budget deficit ...
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Improving the quality of institutions with development of the country's economic infrastructure can reduce the degree of fiscal policy cycles in developing countries. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of good governance and political cycles on the liquidity and budget deficit changes during 1978-2018. The research method is descriptive analytical by using econometric method of the GMM. Data are from the Central Bank of Iran and World Bank site for Iranian Economy. The research results show the effect of good governance on the variables of liquidity and budget deficit changes are negative and significant. Also the interactive effects of good governance and the election dummy variables on the liquidity and budget deficit changes are negative and significant. These results indicate that good governance during the elections can control the budget deficit and liquidity changes, hence to control the business-political cycles, suggest to improve the good governance in Iran.
Ali Sarkhoshsara; Aso Esmailpour; Khadijeh Nasrollahi; Jafar Haghighat
Abstract
Over the past three decades, Internet has been playing a major role in societies, and the rapid increase in its use reflects its impact on all aspects of the economy, including international trade. The present study intends to investigate the effect of Internet influence on Iran's goods and services ...
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Over the past three decades, Internet has been playing a major role in societies, and the rapid increase in its use reflects its impact on all aspects of the economy, including international trade. The present study intends to investigate the effect of Internet influence on Iran's goods and services trade with its largest trading partners. For this purpose, the fuzzy regression method was applied to investigate the relationships between variables from 1995 to 2016. In the present study three experimental models: 1) the effect of Internet influence on all goods trade and services of Iran with trading partners; 2) the effect of Internet influence on the Iranian goods export and services to trading partners; and 3) the effect of Internet influence on the Iranian goods import and services from commercial partners, within the framework of the modified gravity model are estimated. The results show that in all the three models, the variables of Internet diffusion and GDP per capita of Iran and trading partners and the population of Iran have a positive effect on trade in goods and services. Also, according to the results, it was found that the population of Iran's trading partners has a positive effect on the total Iran’s trade and exports to these countries, while it has a negative effect on Iran’s goods import and services. Furthermore, the findings suggest that the effect of the variables the distance and the exchange rate between Iran and trading partners on the total trade of Iran with these countries and export to them and imports from them is negative.
Soghra Darvishi; Ahmad Ali Kehkha; Mahmood Ahmadpoor Borazjani
Abstract
In this study, a bio economic model is used to estimate social optimization of the high hunting of migratory birds in Freydunkenar wetland. According to the results of the bio economic model, calculating optimal hunting level considering amenity values, result in higher optimal number of wetlands and ...
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In this study, a bio economic model is used to estimate social optimization of the high hunting of migratory birds in Freydunkenar wetland. According to the results of the bio economic model, calculating optimal hunting level considering amenity values, result in higher optimal number of wetlands and birds than the usual values. However by increasing the cost of preparing wetlands, these values are reduced. Reducing the cost of maintenance and restoration of wetlands increases the optimum value of all variables significantly. The results of the above model show that when the value of ecosystem services in wetlands and other compatible values are taken into account in calculations, the optimal social value of wetlands increases.
Econometrics
Mojtaba Rostami; Seyed Nezamuddin Makiyan
Abstract
Stock returns forecasting is very crucial for investors, share-holders and arbiters. Different methods have been developed for this purpose. In general, there are four methods of forecasting in stock markets, which are; Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Traditional Time Series and Machine Learning. ...
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Stock returns forecasting is very crucial for investors, share-holders and arbiters. Different methods have been developed for this purpose. In general, there are four methods of forecasting in stock markets, which are; Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Traditional Time Series and Machine Learning. This study is classified in the third category that is a time series prediction in which the values of a variable are predicted over time. Studies which have been done so far indicate that most of them concentrate on Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithm which are in Machine Learning class and none of them uses Bayesian approach or Exponential Smoothing and Box Jenkins techniques placed in the group of time series forecasting. This paper focuses on forecasting with time series methodology for predicting and comparing the results of the Bayesian, Exponential Smoothing and Box Jenkins methods together. In fact, the difference between this study and others is the comparison of the mentioned methods for stock return forecasting. The period of investigation was 2018- 2020, which covers daily frequency structure. Results, indicated that Bayesian method, based on the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) criterion is the best technique for the prediction of stock returns. This is because, in addition to information derived from data, this method also uses other sources of information such as non-sample information or vague prior density as well for forecasting. Results illustrate the importance of considering the Bayesian approach in predicting stock market returns.
International economy
Samira Motaghi; Anahita Saifi; Salah Ebrahimi
Abstract
The aim of this paper was to investigate the relationship between trade openness and inflation in selected developing and developed countries from 1990 to 2017 using a Panel data approach for testing Romer's hypothesis of relationship between inflation index and Trade Openness. The results of the paper ...
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The aim of this paper was to investigate the relationship between trade openness and inflation in selected developing and developed countries from 1990 to 2017 using a Panel data approach for testing Romer's hypothesis of relationship between inflation index and Trade Openness. The results of the paper show that the Romer hypothesis is rejected in both the studied groups (developed and developing). The results showed that the effect of trade openness on inflation rate was positive and significant in both groups. But the impact of trade openness on inflation has been greater in developing countries. The effect of money supply on inflation was positive and significant in both groups. According to other results of this study, GDP had a significant and negative effect on inflation. Also, the exchange rate has not been a determinant of inflation in developed countries but in developing countries it has had a positive effect on inflation.
Jaafar Roodari; Mohsen Zayandehroodi; Hosein Mehrabi Basharabadi
Abstract
The importance of the technology gap ratio among the countries of the region can be examined not only from the perspective of the role of technology, but also from economic competitiveness point of view. This study examines the role of knowledge-based economy in the technology gap ratio using frontier ...
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The importance of the technology gap ratio among the countries of the region can be examined not only from the perspective of the role of technology, but also from economic competitiveness point of view. This study examines the role of knowledge-based economy in the technology gap ratio using frontier and meta frontier production functions during 1995–2015 in 24 countries of Iran's vision plan. In this regard, the countries of the region were classified into three groups based on the components of knowledge economy and cluster analysis. The results showed that countries in the first group with an average gap of 95 percent are closer to meta frontier technology (1), and also the average technology gap ratio in the other groups is 94% and 67%. Investigating the role of components of knowledge based economy in the technology gap ratio between countries, indicated the very important role of the institutional regime and economic incentives component in decreasing the technology gap ratio based on the computational elasticity of each component between these countries. Thus to decrease the technology gap ratio, there is an emphasis on upgrading such component indicators, which include removing tariff and non-tariff barriers, the rule of law, and the quality of laws and regulations.
Financial Economics
Hamid Reza Arbab; Hamid Amadeh; Amin Amini
Abstract
This study investigated the factors that leads to economic uncertainty which may influence the petrochemical companies returns in various market conditions regarding their various levels of capital. To meet this object, we used quarterly data on government’s current expenditures, general government ...
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This study investigated the factors that leads to economic uncertainty which may influence the petrochemical companies returns in various market conditions regarding their various levels of capital. To meet this object, we used quarterly data on government’s current expenditures, general government revenues, liquidity, GDP, and exchange rate, as the political variables for the years 1384-1397. Considering the type of available time series, we exercised the ARIMA-GARCH model to create an indicator to show the uncertainty of economic policies. We used the result to estimate the quantile regression model, along with other factors affecting corporate returns, including the price of the OPEC oil basket and the real rate of returns and market exchange rate. The results of this study indicated that in the bearish market, the greatest negative effect of each economic policy uncertainty is on the companies with lesser capital. Moreover, the intensity of this effect decreases as the market tends to change from bearish to bullish, and finally the economic policy uncertainty will have the least impact on companies with bigger capital.
Health Economics
Soheil Roudari; Masoud Homayounifar
Abstract
The present study investigates the effect of coronavirus outbreak and exchange rate and oil price variables on the stock market index using Markov Switching model during the period 1398/11/30 – 1399/03/27. The results show that exchange rate growth has no significant effect in the high regime ...
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The present study investigates the effect of coronavirus outbreak and exchange rate and oil price variables on the stock market index using Markov Switching model during the period 1398/11/30 – 1399/03/27. The results show that exchange rate growth has no significant effect in the high regime of the stock market index and has a negative and significant impact in the low and medium regimes. The growth of oil prices has had a negative and significant effect on all stock market index regimes. Also, in the high regime of the stock market index, the prevalence and increase in the coronavirus cases will lead to a decrease in the stock market index, and on the contrary, in the low regime of the stock market index, the prevalence and increase in the coronavirus cases will increase the stock market index. In the high regime of the stock market index, the coronavirus outbreak can lead to a decrease in the stock market index and the outflow of capital from the stock market and transfer to other parallel markets such as currency and housing can occur, and speculation increases.
Monetary economy
Hoseinali Haghi; Mohammadreza Bagherzade; Mojtaba Tabari; Zabihollah Gholami Rudi
Abstract
The necessity to create stable and transparent economic conditions has made combating money laundering a universal policy on the agenda of parliaments and governments by all countries. This is currently the specific issue of the Iran monetary and banking system. In this regard, the infrastructural approach ...
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The necessity to create stable and transparent economic conditions has made combating money laundering a universal policy on the agenda of parliaments and governments by all countries. This is currently the specific issue of the Iran monetary and banking system. In this regard, the infrastructural approach includes all effective dimensions of international anti-money laundering mechanisms such as Basel Committee indices and recommendations of the Financial Action Task Force, and the experiences of other countries show that applying factors of this approach can enhance Iran monetary and banking system internationally and decreases money laundering risk. In order to identify the challenges in this area and reach a model which includes a set of infrastructural factors in fighting money laundering, this study uses qualitative and quantitative parts; in qualitative part, the criteria raised by experts through face-to-face interviews and multi-stage coding, content analysis, and Fuzzy Delphi method, and in quantitative part, the criteria raised by questionnaire and factor analysis technique, and the RMSEA index have been used for fitting the model. Based on international guidelines, the proposed infrastructural model consists of functional, contextual, and structural dimensions and findings indicate that a systematic application of the proposed model improves the efficiency of anti-money laundering system and helps optimal management of anti-money laundering challenges of banks. In this regard, the relative weights of legal, political, geopolitical, and risk-taking components of the structural dimension highlight the importance and necessity of focusing on this dimension and its components of the Iran banking system.
Abolfazl Shahabadi; Hosseein Raghfar; sanaz gahraze
Abstract
Today, the role of economic resiliency in reaction to the shocks to the economy of countries has been one of the most important topics and has attracted the attention of researchers and experts of the world to itself. Given the importance of the subject, the persent study has examined, the effect of ...
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Today, the role of economic resiliency in reaction to the shocks to the economy of countries has been one of the most important topics and has attracted the attention of researchers and experts of the world to itself. Given the importance of the subject, the persent study has examined, the effect of the triple dimensions of globalization (economic, social and political) and knowledge development and its components (the human skills and sources, the information and communication technology and finally, the innovation system), on the economic resiliency of oil producing developing countries during the period 2007 to 2015 using FMOLS method. The results of this study emphasize the positive effects of developing the knowledge, its components, and the triple dimensions of globalization on the resiliency of the economy. The numerical coefficients, 0.21, 0.11 and 0.04 respectively, of human skills and sources, the information and communication technology, the innovation system, indicate that the human skills and sources have the most effect on the resiliency.
Energy Economy
Davood Daneshjafari; Mohammadmahdi Hajian; Javad Jafarzadeh
Abstract
In long-term gas contracts, there is usually a risk for the seller that the buyer will refuse to take delivery. For this reason, the condition of obligation to take or pay in such contracts has become common. Commitment condition is a condition that obliges the buyer in the gas sales contract to pay ...
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In long-term gas contracts, there is usually a risk for the seller that the buyer will refuse to take delivery. For this reason, the condition of obligation to take or pay in such contracts has become common. Commitment condition is a condition that obliges the buyer in the gas sales contract to pay the seller a part of the contract price, which is determined as a percentage of the total amount, even if he does not receive the agreed gas volume. The research question is whether this condition has economic efficiency? Will a long-term balance between buyer and seller be an option for this condition in the contract or not? To answer these question, first, with the concept of evolutionary game theory, we have shown a picture of contracts before the existence of this condition and after its formation. Then, by setting the normal form of the game and using Python software, we have repeated this game thousand times, the results show that accepting the condition of commitment to take or pay will be stable evolutionary equilibrium. From this perspective, the inclusion of such a condition in the contract creates economic efficiency, and the policy recommendation in this regard would be for policy makers to prefer a lower definite income to a higher probable income by including such a condition.
Monetary economy
Abolfazl Shahabadi; Razieh Davarikish; Mahdi Jafari
Abstract
The significant difference between the growth rate of liquidity and the rate of economic growth creates a kind of inflationary potential in the economy. Part of this difference occurs as overt inflation, but the other part will remain latently as potential inflation in the economy. Potential inflation ...
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The significant difference between the growth rate of liquidity and the rate of economic growth creates a kind of inflationary potential in the economy. Part of this difference occurs as overt inflation, but the other part will remain latently as potential inflation in the economy. Potential inflation should have appeared in the economy but was delayed, and this could cause inflation shock and inflationary uncertainty in the country's economy. Therefore, potential inflation is one of the main problems of any country that the fear of bursting and its occurrence causes instability and economic turmoil. The uncertainty resulted leads to huge bewilderment of investors and to reduced investment and employment. Residual factor and institutional quality is one of the factors affecting potential inflation. Because, with the improvement of the Residual factor, the appropriate institutional quality and the high rule of law and order, the concerns related to the growth of liquidity are eliminated. In this case, the growth of liquidity is commensurate with the economic growth and more growth in liquidity than economic growth is prevented. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of residual factor and institutional quality on the potential inflation of selected countries rich in natural resources for the period 1996-2019 using the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) method. The results of this study indicate that the variables of residual factor, institutional quality and exchange rate have a negative and significant effect on potential inflation. Also, according to the research results, the variable of government spending has a positive and significant effect on potential inflation.
Sara Montazeri; Alireza Jorjorzadeh; Mehdi Basirat
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to study the effects of inequality, poverty and environmental pollution on health index in developing as well as developed countries. To reach this goal, data has been used for 23 developed and 94 developing countries. The maximum time period covered by this study was from 1990 ...
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The aim of this paper is to study the effects of inequality, poverty and environmental pollution on health index in developing as well as developed countries. To reach this goal, data has been used for 23 developed and 94 developing countries. The maximum time period covered by this study was from 1990 to 2015 in which unbalanced panel data has been used. To select the appropriate model to estimate the final model, panel stationarity test and Hausman test has been done. The result of tests suggest that fixed effects model for estimating health regression for developing countries is an appropriate one which shows that poverty and different indicators of pollution as well as income inequality have negative effect on health index (child mortality rate) and education index has a positive effect on the health in this countries .The results also show that in developed countries environmental pollution indices , income inequality index and urbanization rate have a negative and significant effect on health index and per capita health expenditure has a positive effect on the health of people in this countries.
Mojgan Samandar Ali Eshtehardi; Naser Ali Azimi; Behrooz Shahmoradi
Abstract
Moving towards a knowledge-based economy, in which growth depends on the quantity, quality, and availability of existing information, is of great importance. The amount of technological knowledge available in a country reflects the level of development. One of the most reliable indicators for measuring ...
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Moving towards a knowledge-based economy, in which growth depends on the quantity, quality, and availability of existing information, is of great importance. The amount of technological knowledge available in a country reflects the level of development. One of the most reliable indicators for measuring the amount of technological knowledge of countries is the Economic Complexity Index. The research attempts to examine the causal relationship between the economic complexity and the components of the knowledge economy. To this end, a panel data model was used. The data consists of 113 countries over the period 2016-2006. For the knowledge economy, we used fourteen variables, which were introduced by the World Bank. By employing Principle Component Analysis, four components were calculated as indicators of the four knowledge economic pillars. Then, the Granger causality relation of these components with the economic complexity was investigated. The result shows that there is a two-way causal relationship between the components of Education, Communication and Information Technology, Economic Institution and economic complexity, and one-way causal relationship from Innovation to Economic complexity. Furthermore, the causal relationship varies among OECD and non-OECD countries.
Public sector economics
Mostafa Dinmohammadi; Sajedeh Bakhshi Balani
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to identify the pattern of quantitative changes in budget bills in the Iranian parliament. Analyzing the Iranian parliament's role in budgeting shows that 30 percent of the general budget increases have occurred in the parliament in the 24 past years. The parliament has played ...
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The purpose of this study is to identify the pattern of quantitative changes in budget bills in the Iranian parliament. Analyzing the Iranian parliament's role in budgeting shows that 30 percent of the general budget increases have occurred in the parliament in the 24 past years. The parliament has played a stabilizing role and increasing public expenditures. Political alignment periods have not made a significant difference in budget changes in parliament. In the political change years (the last year of the government and the first year of the parliament), the total growth of the general budget expenditures of the bill has been significantly higher than the other years. Organizations outside the executive branch have more bargaining and rent-seeking power. They have the largest budget increases in the parliament by a share of 76 percent. The study shows that the parliament in Iran has unlimited powers in amending the budget bills. This conclusion is without considering the qualitative changes in the notes of the single article of the budget؛ if these qualitative changes are also considered, the role of the parliament will increase in the budget changes.
Institutional economy
Mani Motameni; Hoda Zobeiri
Abstract
Economic complexity means the ability to produce a variety of products at the level of global competition. The importance of economic complexity in increasing the wealth and development of countries has been confirmed by studies and empirical evidence. The present study examines the relationship between ...
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Economic complexity means the ability to produce a variety of products at the level of global competition. The importance of economic complexity in increasing the wealth and development of countries has been confirmed by studies and empirical evidence. The present study examines the relationship between social technologies (ST) and economic complexity among 137 countries from 1998 to 2019. Social technology (ST) refers to all the methods, designs, and elements necessary (including institutions, structures, maps, processes, and cultural norms) for organizing individuals to achieve a specific goal or goals. The health and maturity of social technologies make it possible for economies to produce complex goods by integrating large amounts of knowledge, skills, capacity, and experience into complex networks of interactions. To investigate the possibility of a simultaneous relationship between the two variables, the PVAR model was used. The results of this study confirm the existence of a simultaneous and two-way relationship between the rule of law and economic complexity.
Zahra Rezaei Ghahroodi; Farhad Mehran; Sepideh Salehi
Abstract
The aim of developing labour accounts is to provide a complete and coherent picture of the labour market and organize the employment statistics in each country. The most important variables and components of labour accounts are employment, working hours and income from employment. Employment account ...
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The aim of developing labour accounts is to provide a complete and coherent picture of the labour market and organize the employment statistics in each country. The most important variables and components of labour accounts are employment, working hours and income from employment. Employment account is one of the most important components of labour accounts. In this paper, based on the recommendations of the World Labour Organization and the experience of countries such as the Netherlands, Australia, Italy, Denmark and Switzerland, for the first time, the employment account in Iran is provided. The main objective is to derive a comprehensive estimate of total employment in the country. To achieve this goal, employment statistics from regular household surveys are linked to the employment data from establishment surveys. The resulting data are reconciled based on a bottom-up approach until a coherent picture of the size and characteristics of employment emerge. The statistics obtained from labour accounts should also provide improved and more consistent data for macro-economic analysis of the labour market, in particular, the analysis of productivity and the relationship between employment and economic growth. Because in 2011, a number of statistical sources, including labour force survey, population and housing census and numerous establishment surveys have been implemented with the aim of achieving input-output tables, that year is considered as the base year for calculating labour accounts in Iran.
currency
Hassan Tahsili
Abstract
The effect of exchange rate changes on the general level of prices is one of the major issues in macroeconomics and has important results for the monetary policy maker. With respect to these two variables in Iran's economy, modern econometric approaches can provide new insights. In this regard, using ...
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The effect of exchange rate changes on the general level of prices is one of the major issues in macroeconomics and has important results for the monetary policy maker. With respect to these two variables in Iran's economy, modern econometric approaches can provide new insights. In this regard, using the threshold vector autoregressive model, the present study attempts to investigate the nonlinear exchange rate pass-through in Iran during 1369:1 – 1397:4. The results show that pass trough of exchange rate to the general price levels depends on the amount of inflation (inflationary conditions and its threshold). If seasonal inflation exceeds from 5.48%, the exchange rate shocks has lower effect on inflation. The results show that, exchange rate shocks have a severe effect. Due to the lack of inflation targeting policy in the Iran’s economy, the impact of exchange rate shocks on inflation is lower in values below the level of 5.48%. Accordingly, in inflation rates below the threshold, monetary policy has less freedom of action and the goals of reducing inflation and exchange rate policies need to be taken into account simultaneously.
Political economy
Alireza Raanaei; rouhollah shahnazi; Seyyed Aqil Hoseiny
Abstract
The history of modern Iran is full of movements and revolutions. The primary goal of these events has been to achieve a proper balance between the government and society. Although the efforts of Iranians in their modern history have not been fruitless, they have yet to reach the ideal balance between ...
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The history of modern Iran is full of movements and revolutions. The primary goal of these events has been to achieve a proper balance between the government and society. Although the efforts of Iranians in their modern history have not been fruitless, they have yet to reach the ideal balance between the government and society. The present research, through a brief narration of modern history, examines the pathways of progress for the Iranian government and society. To this end, an institutional analysis framework is expanded, and by employing the idea of institutional congruity, a new analytical framework is constructed to analyze the interaction between society and government in Iran. Subsequently, using game theory within this framework, various scenarios of this interaction are examined. The research findings indicate that depreciation, economies of scale, and the instability of preferences are important factors in the dynamics related to the interaction between government and society. Nevertheless, the rate of time preference is the more determining factor, to an extent that determines three possible equilibriums: democracy, despotic Leviathan, and absent Leviathan.
Monetary economy
Hossein Esfandiar; teymoor mohammadi
Abstract
Thanks to Blockchain technology the future of banking can take place without intermediaries (especially banks), and in this regard, Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDCs) and stablecoins of BigTechs are mentioned as the main competitors of the new monetary era. Based on this fact and in parallel with ...
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Thanks to Blockchain technology the future of banking can take place without intermediaries (especially banks), and in this regard, Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDCs) and stablecoins of BigTechs are mentioned as the main competitors of the new monetary era. Based on this fact and in parallel with the efforts of most countries on the (theoretical and experimental) investigation of CBDC’s aspects, this article, using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, in the period Q1 1388 to Q4 1400, economic effects of issuance of RamzRial (Iranian CBDC) was modeled and analyzed. In our model, RamzRial is an account-based, widely available to the general public, interest-bearing and cash complementary money, and the results of the implementation of quantitative and price rule policies were examined in the presence of RamzRial. The results of the model based on the data and calibration indicate that the issuance of RamzRial, while diversifying central bank tools, will improve the effectiveness of monetary policies in the event of (supply and demand) external shocks. One of the significant results, especially for the stagflation condition of Iran’s economy, says that through issuing (an appropriate amount of) RamzRial the central bank can implement disinflation programs while reducing its unwanted negative effects on production. Also, in addition to influencing the level of production, consumption, investment and employment, the results of our model prove that with the introduction of the RamzRial in parallel with cash balances, the most important factor affecting the transmission mechanisms is the dynamics of transaction cost deviations.
